The Aftermath Of The 2022 Midterm Elections
A moment of reflection.In the aftermath of the midterms, Democrats and Republicans face key questions about the future of their parties. With the House and Senate now decided, heres where things stand:
Bidens tough choice.President Biden, who had the best midterms of any president in 20 years as Democrats maintained a narrow hold on the Senate, feels buoyant after the results. But as he nears his 80th birthday, he confronts a decision on whether to run again.
Is Trumps grip loosening?Ignoring Republicans concerns that he was to blame for the partys weak midterms showing, Donald J. Trump announced his third bid for the presidency. But some of his staunchest allies are already inching away from him.
G.O.P leaders face dissent.After a poor midterms performance, Representative Kevin McCarthy and Senator Mitch McConnell faced threats to their power from an emboldened right flank. Will the divisions in the partys ranks make the G.O.P.-controlled House an unmanageable mess?
A new era for House Democrats.Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the first woman to serve in the post and the face of House Democrats for two decades, will not pursue a leadership post in the next Congress. A trio of new leaders is poised to take over their caucuss top ranks.
Divided government.What does a Republican-controlled House and a Democratic-run Senate mean for the next two years? Most likely a return to the gridlock and brinkmanship that have defined a divided federal government in recent years.
Trump Approval Rating By State 2022
The presidential job approval ratings in the U.S. were introduced in the late 1930s by George Gallup to gauge public support for the president during their term. Approval ratings are determined by polling given to a sample of people.
Like most surveys, poll results may be inaccurate due to samples that self-select. However, statisticians generally accept the approval rating as a factual indicator of the peoples feelings about the president.
As of April 2020, President Trumps approval rate is 46.0% and his disapproval is at 49.6%.
Nbc News Poll: Steve Kornacki Breaks Down Bidens Approval Rating
Its the first time since July 2019 when party supporters have outnumbered Trump supporters in our poll, and its also the first time that party supporters have reached 50 percent on this question.
Strikingly, these numbers are coming as the perception of Trumps pull within his party couldnt be stronger.
GOP politicians are still trekking to Mar-A-Lago. Theyre clamoring for his endorsement. And House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy continues to hug Trump, even after what happened on Jan. 6.
But close to 100 days after leaving office, Trumps standing nationally as well within his own party is weaker today than it was three months ago.
Now we know what youre probably thinking: Since the 2020 polls understated Trumps support, isnt this poll maybe also understating his current support?
And you could be right.
But say you improved his favorable/unfavorable score by 5 points in both directions to 37 percent positive, 50 percent negative.
Thats still a rough set of numbers for someone many Republicans continue to view as the leader of their party.
Here are some other numbers to chew on from our new NBC News poll: There is a significant difference in political attitudes between those who consume conservative media and those who consume everything else.
Percentage with very positive view of Trump
- All adults: 21 percent.
- Conservative media diet: 46 percent.
- Liberal media diet : 8 percent.
- Social media : 21 percent.
- Print, broadcast TV, local news : 11 percent.
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How Bidens Numbers Affect The Drama On Capitol Hill
And how do you translate Bidens political standing to the current legislative standoff on Capitol Hill?
We guarantee you some of the at-risk Democratic members have seen poll numbers that show them in dangerous territory, too.
By the way, we still dont have an answer from President Biden to the questions we posed yesterday: Should Mondays infrastructure vote go forward?
And if so, should all Democrats vote for it?
Thats a bad sign for Democrats who want to see the infrastructure legislation pass on Monday.
It appears the partisan review of Maricopa Countys 2020 election results shows that Joe Biden won Arizona.
Again.
NBC News: Maricopa County, Arizona, said Thursday that a draft report from a company in a contentious, partisan review of Novemberâs election has confirmed the winners ⦠NBC affiliate KPNX of Phoenix said that it obtained a copy of the report and that the review widens Bidenâs victory margin by 360 votes.
Every time Trump and his supporters have been given a forum to make their case, they have swung and missed, GOP election lawyer Ben Ginsberg told the Washington Post.
If Trump and his supporters cant prove it here with the process theyve designed then they cant prove it anywhere, he added.
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Quality Journalism Doesn’t Come Free
Perhaps it goes without saying but producing quality journalism isn’t cheap. At a time when newsroom resources and revenue across the country are declining, The Texas Tribune remains committed to sustaining our mission: creating a more engaged and informed Texas with every story we cover, every event we convene and every newsletter we send. As a nonprofit newsroom, we rely on members to help keep our stories free and our events open to the public. Do you value our journalism? Show us with your support.
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Trumps Popularity Falls Among Republicans According To New Poll
Former US President Donald Trump
Donald Trumps popularity among registered Republicans has fallen in the 100 days since the end of his presidency, according to a recent poll.
The NBC News poll found that Republican support for the party was greater than the support for the former president, who was favoured by 44 per cent of Republicans.
The figure for registered Republicans in favour of the party over the former president, in comparison, was at 50 per cent.
It was the first time in almost two years that support for the Republican party was greater than that for Mr Trump, NBC News reported, and the first time support for the GOP reached 50 per cent against the former president.
Among all respondents to the poll, Mr Trump was favourable for 32 per cent, and unfavourable for 55 per cent a slight worsening of Januarys figures, when the former president was 40 per cent favourable and 53 percent unfavourable among all registered voters.
When compared to the poll for November, Mr Trump was also 9 per cent less favourable and 2 per cent more unfavourable among all respondents to the NBC News poll.
The findings follow reports of Mr Trumps continued control over the Republican party from his Mar-a-Lago resort in southern Florida even after election defeat, the end of his single-term in office and his alleged support for the 6 January insurrection on the US Capitol.
Among all adults, as few as 21 per cent said so.
Read More
Trump Support Remains Unmoved By Investigations Poll Finds
Even during peak crises during his presidency, views of him were static. Post-presidency polls have continued the trend.
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The American publics views of former President Donald J. Trump have remained remarkably stable across a number of different measures in recent months, even as he faces multiple investigations and as he remains a central figure in the midterm elections, according to the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
Voters held nearly identical views from those earlier in the summer on whether they had a favorable view of Mr. Trump, whether they thought he had committed serious federal crimes, and whom they would support in a hypothetical 2024 Trump-Biden matchup.
Overall, 44 percent of voters viewed Mr. Trump favorably, and 53 percent viewed him unfavorably . The recent poll was fielded early this month, after news of the Justice Departments inquiry into Mr. Trumps handling of confidential documents but before the New York attorney general announced she was suing Mr. Trump and his family business.
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Trump’s Bad Numbers Get Worse
Those findings have deteriorated a bit since the summer when by 65%-28% of voters wanted him to forgo another bid for the White House.
Trump’s standing among Republicans has sagged, although he is still more popular within his own party than Biden is in his. GOP voters by 56%-39% want Trump to run again. That’s a decline of a few points from July when by 60%-34% Republicans supported another race.
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Trump Leads Biden By 7% In Slu/yougov Poll
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump rather comfortably in national polling with a realclearpolitics.com average of about 9%, 49% to 40%. Biden also leads Trump in most Battleground states. However, our SLU/YouGov Poll shows Trump with a rather comfortable lead in Missouri among likely voters, 50% to Bidens 43%.
Missouri was once touted as the nations best bellwether state during the 1900s, but Missouri has been trending red, especially in presidential elections since Bill Clinton won Missouri in 1992 and 1996. Missouri has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since, voting for George W. Bush twice, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump with Romney and especially Trump winning by large vote margins.
Support among men and women for Trump in Missouri is also down from 2016, from 62% to 56.5% for men and from 53% to 43% among women. Although Trump still shows strong support among voters without a college degree, his support among four-year college graduates is sharply down. Among these college graduates, he has fallen from 55% support in 2016 to 41% in our poll. While 45% of males with four-year college degrees say they will vote for Trump, only 36% of four-year college degreed women say they will.
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Poll: Biden Trump Statistically Tied In Favorability
Donald Trump Trump urges GOP senators to vote against McConnell debt dealOn The Money Presented by NRHC Senate slowly walks back from debt disasterAdministration confirms it will restore national monuments to pre-Trump boundariesMORE are statistically tied when it comes to their favorability among U.S. voters, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey shared exclusively with The Hill on Monday.
Forty-eight percent of respondents say they have a positive view of Trump compared to 46 percent who say they have a favorable opinion of his successor. Bidens favorability is slightly underwater, however: 49 percent of those surveyed said they have an unfavorable view of the current president, while slightly less 47 percent report an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
The findings are a remarkable shift for Biden, who repeatedly outperformed Trumps favorability numbers throughout the early months of his presidency.
But multiple crises, including a surge in new COVID-19 infections in recent months and the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, have bruised public perceptions of Biden.
Fifty-one percent of respondents now say Trump was a better president than Biden, while 49 percent prefer the White Houses current occupant, the poll shows.
Since Trump lost the popular vote by 5 points, Trump getting 51 percent as a better president is actually an improvement from Election Day.
Fifty-five percent of those surveyed say that Mike Pence
Approval Ratings By State
Approval ratings vary greatly by state and can indicate how a state will vote in the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. Since his inauguration in January 2017, President Trumps net approval has decreased in every state. President Trumps approval rating is decreasing in important states that he won in his 2016 election, including swing states and states that are consistently Republican in every election. The three key states Trump had in his 2016 election are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which currently have approval ratings under 50%.
Below are each states approval ratings for President Trump as of February 2020. Data is from a poll by the Morning Consult.
- Net approval since Trump took office has decreased by 22 percentage points
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Icymi: What Else Is Happening In The World
The CDC Director for a broader group than advisors recommended including the elderly, those with underlying medical conditions, and those whose work or institutional living situation puts them at increased risk.
Texas secretary of states office announced a forensic audit of the 2020 election results in four counties, shortly after Trump backed one.
Pennsylvanias attorney general is suing in the hopes of blocking a GOP attempt to audit the 2020 election results in the state.
Politico reports that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is warming to Herschel Walker and other controversial Republican Senate candidates backed by Trump.
Families of missing Black men plead for more resources and accountability from police like theyre seeing in the investigation into the death of Gabby Petito.
The former police officer convicted of killing George Floyd will appeal the verdict.
In 2017 Exit Polls Were Right In Predicting That The Bjp Will Win Both Gujarat And Himachal Pradesh Though The Predicted Numbers Were Amiss
From being absolutely on point to being exactly opposite of the actual verdict, pollsters have seen all this volatility in predicting the mandate. As Gujarat is polling for the second phase of the election on Monday, the exit poll prediction will start coming around 6pm after the embargo is lifted at 5.30pm. Exit polls are done by taking the feedback of the voters as they exit after voting. This is different from opinion polls which gauge the mood ahead of the election is held. Exit Poll 2022: Predictions for Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, MCD likely from 6pm
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Trump Should Not Run For President In 2024 Majority Of Americans Say
As former President Donald Trump considers launching another bid for the White House, more than six in 10 Americans do not want him to run in 2024, according to a new PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. And while Trumps possession of more than 10,000 government documents at his Florida home seems not to have changed the minds of his steady supporters, a plurality of Americans think he has done something illegal.
The level of support for another Trump campaign remains virtually unchanged from December 2020, the month after he lost the presidential election and weeks before a mob of his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an effort to stop the certification of the Electoral College votes.
His numbers dont move. Theyre locked in, said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. The good thing for former President Trump is his numbers dont drop. The bad thing is hes only talking about a third of the electorate who are in his corner.
Graphics by Megan McGrew
Thats not a great place to launch an election campaign, he added.
Just 28 percent of independents believe Trump should run again, this poll found, while two-thirds say the former president should sit out the next election. According to 2020 exit polling, 41 percent of independents had voted for Trumps reelection, suggesting a significant cratering of support since.
WATCH:The political impact of what the FBI found at Mar-a-Lago
Graphic by Megan McGrew
Trumps Poll Numbers Are Collapsing But Where Will They Be In November
President Trump is collapsing in the polls. His approval rating is in the low 40s and dropping. Nationally, hes running behind Biden by nine points, according to FiveThirtyEight.coms average or by as much as 14 points in the latest Siena College/New York Times poll. Hes losing in key battleground states as well Biden has substantial leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, among other places.
If the election were held tomorrow, Trump would almost certainly lose.
But the election is not being held tomorrow. And a whole lot can happen in the next four and a half months.
Early polling was not indicative of what happened in 1976 or of 1968. It was not indicative of 1980 or 1992 or 2016, said Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster who has worked for Newt Gingrich and Pat Buchanan, among other clients. There have been so many cases where the numbers changed in the last days. What early polling does is tell us where were headed but not where well end up.
Consider the Gallup general election poll that gave Michael Dukakis a 17-point lead over George H.W. Bush in late July 1988. That lead evaporated over the months that followed and he was defeated in November.
My advice to any candidate is dont count on the polls, Dukakis told me when I called him last week. Go out and organize in every one of the 50 states and take nothing for granted and keep driving and driving until election day.
So yeah, Democrats shouldnât get complacent.
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Voxs German Lopez is here to guide you through the Biden administrations burst of policymaking. .
Still, Bidens approval slide coming amid indications Senate Democrats dont have the votes to pass a $3.5 trillion human infrastructure bill that was supposed to represent one of the presidents major legislative accomplishments is an inauspicious development for Democrats. Theyre heading into a midterm cycle, where the presidents party generally faces an uphill battle to retain control of the House, and with another challenge from Trump or a successor likely looming in 2024.
Clearly Trump was in a worse position four years ago than Biden is now, Easley said. But given the margins in the House and Senate, how much solace can the White House and the Biden administration take in that fact? I dont really think itll mean that much to them.
To get the 30,000-foot view of why Bidens approval rating has slid and what it means, Vox spoke with Easley a transcript of that conversation, lightly edited for length and clarity, follows.
Aaron Rupar
As we talk today , how have Bidens number held up since they first dipped below 50 percent last month?
Cameron Easley
Todays numbers, which are based on surveys conducted from the 12th through the 14th, we have his approval rating at 47 percent and his disapproval rating at 50 percent, so just about where it was when we wrote that story about his net approval rating dipping underwater for the first time.
Aaron Rupar
Aaron Rupar
