New 2020 Voter Data: How Biden Won How Trump Kept The Race Close And What It Tells Us About The Future
As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well.
Now, using a massive sample of “validated” voters whose participation has been independently verified, the Pew Research Center has . It helps us understand how Joe Biden was able to accomplish what Hillary Clinton did not—and why President Trump came closer to getting reelected than the pre-election surveys had predicted.
How Joe Biden won
Five main factors account for Biden’s success.
How Trump kept it close
Despite non-stop controversy about his policies and personal conduct, President Trump managed to raise his share of the popular vote from 46% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. His core coalition held together, and he made a few new friends.
Us Election 2024: Who Are The Likely Republican Candidates To Run For President Against Joe Biden
Mike Pence, Ivanka Trump and Ted Cruz are among the rumoured candidates to become Donald Trump’s successor
The 2020 presidential race has only just finished, but the Republican candidates for 2024 are already preparing themselves for their shot at the White House.
We take a look at who may be looking to get themselves in to the race.
With Malice Toward None: The Abraham Lincoln Bicentennial Exhibitionthe Run For President
In 1860, Abraham Lincoln was the least known of all of the contenders for the Republican Partyâ€™s nomination for president. Heading the list was former New York Governor William H. Seward, with the politically awkward Governor Salmon P. Chase of Ohio a distant second. Conservative Edward Bates of Missouri was considered too old, and many Republicans seemed uncomfortable with the popular but unpredictable Horace Greeley, founder and editor of the New York Tribune.
To overcome his disadvantage, Lincoln adopted an unobtrusive publicity campaign. The timely release of his published debates with Stephen A. Douglas and brief autobiographies and a carefully orchestrated speaking campaign in New York and parts of New England all worked to Lincolnâ€™s advantage. The nomination and the subsequent campaign were left largely to trusted handlers, but even after his election was secure, Lincoln maintained a dogged silence on national issues prior to his inauguration.
Nj Primary Elections 2020: The Five Republicans Who Want To Take Over As Us Senator
Five Republicans are vying for the chance to try to do something no one else has been able to do in almost a half-century: Convince New Jersey voters to elect a Republican to serve in the U.S. Senate, where Democrat Cory Booker now sits.
It has been 48 years since New Jersey voters have sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate, and registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly a million. In 2018, Republican and former pharmaceuticals executive Bob Hugin spent more than $39 million, including $36 million of his own money, and lost by 11 percentage points to incumbent Bob Menendez, who had been considered vulnerable after his trial on political corruption charges ended in a hung jury.
“Statewide races are the toughest ones of all for a GOP outnumbered by a million more registered Democrats in the state,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “But even before party registrations were so lopsided, Republican Senate candidates have fared more poorly here than almost anywhere else in the nation.” Since New Jersey last sent a Republican to the Senate in 1972, “the GOP has lost a staggering 15 Senate races in a row,” he said.
Republican Lawmakers Are Terrified Of Trump Running For President Again
A new report by Politico cites multiple unnamed Republican lawmakers – even those who publicly praise Trump – who say that they REALLY don’t want Donald Trump running for President again in 2024. They would much rather see Trump working “behind the scenes” to help shore up support for the Party as a whole, and they insist that the Party is stronger now than it was five years ago. Ring of Fire’s Farron Cousins discusses this.
*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.
Recently, Politico interviewed several Republican lawmakers, who of course all chose to remain nameless. But Politico says that these were Trump supporting lawmakers, still are Trump supporting lawmakers, by the way. And each one of them said that they do not want Donald Trump to be the Republican party’s nominee in 2024. In fact, they don’t want Trump to run for president ever again. I’ll read a couple quotes from some of these lawmakers here. Here’s what one of them said, he’s one of the best presidents we’ve had in terms of policies. But having said that if it were up to me, I would never have Trump on any ballot ever again, because it’s such a distraction. I would love for him to play a behind the scenes role and not be on the ballot. Another one said, I’d like to see a fresh face. I think we have a lot of them.
Eight Republican 2024 Candidates Speak In Texas Next Week But Not Trump
WASHINGTON, April 30 – A Republican Party event in Texas next week will hear from eight potential candidates for the party’s presidential nomination in 2024, without former President Donald Trump, a source involved in the planning said on Friday.
The May 7 event at a hotel in Austin is being co-hosted by U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Texas Governor Greg Abbott, to thank donors who helped fund a voter registration drive and get-out-the-vote efforts in the state.
High-profile Republican politicians who are considering whether to seek the party’s nomination in 2024 are expected to speak to the crowd of about 200 donors.
They include former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and U.S. senators Marco Rubio, Tim Scott and Rick Scott, the source said.
The event comes as Republicans wrestle with whether to try to move past Trump in the next election cycle or fall in line behind him. Trump told Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo on Thursday that he was “100%” considering another run after losing in 2020 to Democrat Joe Biden.
Trump was not invited to Texas, the source said. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley was invited but was unable to attend, the source said.
Many Republican insiders doubt Trump will follow through on his musings about running for president in 2024, leaving a void that other party leaders will seek to fill.
Fact Check: Trump Did Not Call Republicans The Dumbest Group Of Voters
5 Min Read
An old quote falsely attributed to Donald Trump has recently resurfaced online. The viral meme alleges Trump told People magazine in 1998 that Republicans are “the dumbest group of voters in the country”. This is false.
The meme reads: “If I were to run, I’d run as a Republican. They’re the dumbest group of voters in the country. They believe anything on Fox News. I could lie and they’d still eat it up. I bet my numbers would be terrific. – Donald Trump, People Magazine, 1998”
Snopes first wrote about the false quote here in October 2015 . Since then, the quote has been debunked multiple times .
People magazine has confirmed in the past that its archive has no register of this alleged exchange.
“People looked into this exhaustively when it first surfaced back in Oct. . We combed through every Trump story in our archive. We couldn’t find anything remotely like this quote–and no interview at all in 1998.”, a magazine spokesperson told Factcheck.org that year .
In December 1987, People published a profile on Donald Trump titled “Too Darn Rich”. The article quoted him saying he was too busy to run for president .
Republican Support For Trump Running Again In 2024 Falls To Just 45%
Republicans are quickly losing interest in President Donald Trump running for president again in 2024.
In new polling conducted by Echelon Insights, 45 per cent of GOP-leaning voters in January said they wanted to see Trump run for the White House again in four years, down from the 65 per cent who said so in December.
The January 6 insurrection may have played a role in the 20-point dip as January polling found that even 30 per cent of Republicans wanted to see the ex-president barred from holding office again after the MAGA riot.
At the same time, Democrats and independents were way more keen to see Trump punished for his role in inciting the crowd on January 6.
Fifty-two per cent of independents said Trump shouldn’t be able to run again, with 85 per cent of Democrats in agreement.
Thirty per cent of Republicans also agreed that Trump should be banned from social media platforms, with 29 per cent saying they’d support the ex-president being censured by Congress.
The smallest group of Republicans, 21 per cent, wanted to see Trump impeached and convicted.
Trump’s Senate trial begins on Capitol Hill next week.
Pollsters also asked Republicans over the past few months who they wanted as the leader of their party.
Trump’s popularity actually increased after he lost the November 3 election to President Joe Biden.
In November, 52 per cent of Republicans said they wanted Trump to be the leading voice of their party.
The Long Race For The 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Begins
WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — In the past week alone, Nikki Haley regaled activists in Iowa, Mike Pence courted donors in California and Donald Trump returned to the rally stage, teasing a third campaign for the White House.
The midterms are more than a year away, and there are 1,225 days until the next presidential election. But Republicans eyeing a White House run are wasting no time in jockeying for a strong position in what could emerge as an extremely crowded field of contenders.
The politicking will only intensify in the coming weeks, particularly in Iowa, home to the nation’s leadoff presidential caucuses and a state where conservative evangelicals play a significant role in steering the direction of the GOP. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas is slated to visit on Tuesday, and others, including Pence, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are expected to appear in July.
The flurry of activity is a sign that there is no clear frontrunner to lead the GOP if Trump opts against a 2024 campaign.
“It definitely feels early, but it doesn’t feel like it’s a bad idea based on the situation,” said Mike DuHaime, a longtime Republican strategist. “The party has changed, the voters are changing and I think the process has changed. And I think many of the candidates have realized that.”
“We won the election twice,” he said. “And it’s possible we’ll have to win it a third time.”
As for Trump?
Are You Ready For Republican Tim Scott To Run For President In 2024
The Senate’s lone Black Republican member, Tim Scott, is opening eyes and creating conversation about his 2024 political prospects.According to Fox News, Scott has brought in $14.4 million in campaign fundraising, after posting $9.6 million during April-June. The total amount in his campaign coffers has led many to believe that Scott is eying higher office than just the U.S. Senate.Scott has kept his name ringing in the political arena during his tenure in the Senate, especially after delivering a GOP response to President Biden’s primetime address to a joint session of Congress earlier this year. Scott has also led his party in negotiations with congressional Democrats on a major police reform bill.
While Scott has downplayed the hype surrounding his political aspirations, people on the Hill and talking heads on camera are noting that he could possibly be a 2024 Republican presidential nominee.
“Tim Scott is a force,” Jim Merrill, a New Hampshire-based Republican consultant said to Fox News. “His strong numbers reflect how he has inspired activists and business leaders alike, good for both his reelection next year and for a potential presidential campaign in 2024.”
With Scott previously downplaying the notion of running for president and his recent declaration that he won’t run for Senate after 2022, Black America will just have to see if Tim Scott will lean-in to the dollars raised to bankroll a potential campaign for the White House.
Trumpworld Is Already Weighing Veeps For 2024 Hint: It Aint Pence
The former president is keeping tabs on the field and he’s all but decided to ditch the guy he ran with last time.
07/23/2021 04:30 AM EDT
Donald Trump and his advisers are convinced that if he runs again for president in 2024, the Republican nomination will be his. Their confidence is so supreme that they view almost all of the emerging field not as competition but as possible vice presidential picks.
No formal vetting process is in place, and there is no expectation that Trump, should he run, will do so unopposed in a Republican primary. But allies of the former president are already keeping tabs on how GOP officials with presidential ambitions are addressing Trump himself and the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s election.
“You can’t wait to run for president,” said one Trump adviser. “But those doing it now look like they’re dancing on the grave and the political body’s still warm.”
As things stand now, Trump is extremely unlikely to run again with former Vice President Mike Pence as his number two, advisers say. Some Trump aides have also written off Pence’s political future, at least at the presidential level, privately arguing that he has failed to capture anything close to the same kind of enthusiasm as Trump. They point to anger among the most diehard Trump supporters over Pence’s decision to carry out his Constitutional duty in certifying Biden’s election win.
- Filed Under:
Native American Voting Rights Are Under Attack In Republican
After voting in record numbers in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic, Native Americans are now one of the biggest targets of Republican-backed voter suppression efforts in the states where their votes matter most.
Republican States with significant Native populations such as Arizona, Kansas, Montana and more have enacted new laws that limit voter access in ways that disproportionately affect Native voters. Enforcing strict deadlines to correct mail-in ballots, restricting third-party ballot collection, enforcing strict voter identification requirements and making it harder to pay for election resources negatively affected Native Americans in these states. mainly because of the specific circumstances on the reservation where many of them live.
OJ Simmons, founder of native voting rights group Four Direction and an enrolled member of the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in South Dakota, said, “The laws that state legislatures are passing are fatal to every Native American living in those states. ” Such legislation, he said, “is going to knock us back 10 years” after “we have been working to get more and more Native Americans to participate in elections for the last 18 to 20 years”. “.
It wasn’t until 1962 that laws preventing Native Voting in New Mexico fell in place. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 also provided significant protections for indigenous suffrage.
Many new voting laws are detrimental to Native voters, even if they do not superficially alienate them.
Why Donald Trump Is Republicans’ Worst Nightmare In 2024
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Earlier this week, amid a rambling attack on the validity of the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump said this: “Interesting that today a poll came out indicating I’m far in the lead for the Republican Presidential Primary and the General Election in 2024.”
this on Trump’s future political ambitions from Politico“Trump is confiding in allies that he intends to run again in 2024 with one contingency: that he still has a good bill of health, according to two sources close to the former president. That means Trump is going to hang over the Republican Party despite its attempts to rebrand during his exile and its blockade of a Trump-centric investigation into January’s insurrection.”new Quinnipiac University national pollhis growing legal and financial entanglementsAs CNN reported on Wednesday night“Manhattan prosecutors pursuing a criminal case against former President Donald Trump, his company and its executives have told at least one witness to prepare for grand jury testimony, according to a person familiar with the matter — a signal that the lengthy investigation is moving into an advanced stage.”
The Contenders Who Competed To Run Against Donald Trump
Within weeks of Donald Trump taking the oath of office as the nation’s 45th president, challengers began lining up to see who would attempt to unseat him in the 2020 presidential election. The controversial president faced early challenges from within his own party, but by and large, the focus remained on the candidates put forth by the opposing Democratic Party.
During one of the most crowded primary seasons in recent memory, several high-profile Democrats, including multiple sitting senators and rising stars in the party, competed for the party’s nomination. Ultimately, it was former vice president Joe Biden who won the party’s nomination. He selected Senator Kamala Harris, another primary candidate, as his running mate, and the ticket won the 2020 general election with 51.3% of the vote and 306 electoral votes to 46.9% and 232 electoral votes for the incumbent Trump/Pence ticket.
Here’s a look at the Democrats, and even members of Trump’s own Republican Party, who ran campaigns looking to unseat the controversial commander-in-chief.
|February 7, 2020|
Former Us Ambassador To The United Nations Nikki Haley
Haley, 49, stands out in the potential pool of 2024 Republican candidates by her resume. She has experience as an executive as the former governor of South Carolina and foreign policy experience from her time as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Haley was a member of the Republican Party’s 2010 tea party class. A former South Carolina state representative, her long shot gubernatorial campaign saw its fortunes improve after she was endorsed by Sarah Palin. Haley rocketed from fourth to first just days after the endorsement, and she went on to clinch the nomination and become her state’s first female and first Indian-American governor.
As governor, she signed a bill removing the Confederate flag from the state Capitol following the white supremacist attack at the Emanuel African Methodist Church in Charleston. She left office in 2017 to join the Trump administration as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Quinnipiac poll found she was at one point the most popular member of Trump’s foreign policy team.
“I think that she’s done a pretty masterful job in filling out her resume,” said Robert Oldendick, a professor and director of graduate studies at the University of South Carolina’s department of political science.
Haley criticized Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by his supporters, saying she was “disgusted” by his conduct. Oldendick said he thought her “pretty pointed criticism of the president will potentially cause some problems.”
Republican Candidates Running For The Us 2020 Election
- Bill Weld was married twice and has five children.
- Weld ran for vice-president as a Libertarian on the Gary Johnson ticket in the 2016 presidential election.
- As a conservative, Weld is strongly pro-choice on abortion issues.
The presidential race is on and the candidates are being whittled down to the very few. Who is running on the Republican side? Current President Donald Trump is going for re-election, and the only candidate now challenging him for election as president of the US this coming November 3rd, 2020 is Bill Weld, a former Massachusetts governor.
The 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Wild Cards
The first Democratic debate back in 2019 had 20 — TWENTY! — candidates, so don’t be surprised if the Republican field is just as large or larger. We could have some more governors or representatives run, or even other nontraditional candidates, like a Trump family member, a Fox News host or a celebrity, like Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, who’s said he’s “seriously considering” a run. Stranger things have happened.
Who Wants To Run For Governor As A Republican In 2022
Pennsylvania Republicans have been battling with Gov. Tom Wolf since he unseated incumbent Tom Corbett in 2014. Many of them are eager to take Wolf’s place, but there is no clear frontrunner this early in the race. Several Republicans have already announced their bid, and a few others have hinted or shown interest in joining what is expected to be a crowded primary. Thus far, it’s hard to find a Republican candidate without some sort of ties to former President Donald Trump.
With a heated race to fill U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey’s seat next year, the GOP will have to be strategic about what candidates it wants to back for the Senate and for governor. Potential candidates will also have to weigh their options and decide where they fit best and can compete.
There are plenty of names that could be added to this list in the coming months, but here is our second iteration of potential Republican candidates for 2022. A couple of candidates have been added since the last edition.
Former U.S. Rep Lou Barletta
Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale
Gale was the first Republican to formally announce his candidacy for governor back in February. An avid Trump supporter, he has criticized the Pennsylvania GOP and pledged to be a conservative populist. He’s also caught attention for and saying Trump’s presidency was sabotaged.
Former Corry Mayor Jason Monn
Pittsburgh attorney Jason Richey
Dr. Nche Zama
For These Republicans 2024 Is Just Around The Corner
Mike Pence. Mike Pompeo. Rick Scott. They share big ambitions, but one name hovers above them all …
President Biden told reporters last month that his “plan is to run for re-election,” despite already being the oldest person to have won a presidential election. So, for now at least, the question of who will lead the Democratic ticket in 2024 has been put to rest.
On the Republican side, however, certainty is in short supply. It’s beyond early to be talking about the next presidential election — but that’s only if you aren’t planning to run. Some Republican candidates have already made trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, and others are laying plans to go, in what often represents the first step in building out a campaign operation in those early-voting states.
And on Wednesday, in a conspicuously forward-looking move, former Vice President Mike Pence announced the formation of a new political organization, Advancing American Freedom, whose advisory board is stacked high with former Trump administration officials and allies. The news came on the same day Simon & Schuster announced that it would publish Pence’s autobiography as part of a two-book deal.
The G.O.P. is badly fractured, trying to hold together a dominant base of those loyal to former President Donald Trump and a stubborn minority of pro-decorum, anti-Trump conservatives. Anyone looking to grab the Republican mantle will have to find some way of satisfying both camps — and maybe even expanding upon them.
Rivera Another Candidate Who Is Trying A Second Time
Another candidate making her second Senate attempt is Natalie Lynn Rivera. A social services coordinator from Sicklerville, Rivera ran as an independent under the slogan “For the People” in 2018, garnering about 0.6% of the vote.
Rivera, 44, said she wants to give typical New Jersey residents a voice in Congress. On her Facebook campaign site she calls herself a conservative. Among her priorities are restoring Second Amendment rights that she says are “under seige” in the state and outlawing abortion.
What sets her apart from the other candidates, she said, is that she “will be a servant to the people … I think I am authentic and will serve from the heart to put their best interests at the forefront.”
Another candidate running a shoestring campaign is Eugene Tom Anagnos, a retired middle school teacher who taught in Newark and Elizabeth schools. A Greek immigrant who now lives in East Hanover, Anagnos is an Army veteran who holds a bachelor’s degree in English Literature from Indiana University.
General Election Candidates On Five Or More Ballots
In addition to Biden, Hawkins, Jorgensen, and Trump, the following candidates have qualified to appear on five or more ballots:
|Roque De La Fuente|
|Gloria La Riva|
|Jesse Ventura/Cynthia McKinney|
|Kyle Kenley Kopitke|
|Ricki Sue King/Dayna Chandler|
Incumbents are bolded and underlined The results have been certified.
|Total votes: 158,379,904
0 states have not been called.
Here Are The Republicans To Keep An Eye On For 2024
Republicans are paying extra attention to a number of Republican governors, senators, and former officials that might consider making a run for president in 2024.
The contenders come from various contingents of right-leaning thought, and will be fighting to capture parts of former President Donald Trump’s base. Whichever Republican hopeful prevails will not only become the Republican Party’s nominee, but also help determine the ideological trajectory of the Republican Party in the post-Trump era.
Vice President Mike Pence
It’s not uncommon for vice presidents to follow up their stint as second-in-command with a run for president. Former President John Adams, the nation’s second president, was America’s first vice president under President George Washington. More recently, President Joe Biden became the 46th president four years after he ended his eight-year tenure as former President Barack Obama’s vice president.
Vice President Mike Pence might decide to do the same, but Pence’s relationship with Trump seems to be severely tarnished after Pence did not contest the certification of the Electoral College results, as reported by The Hill.
Senator Ted Cruz
Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz could run for president again come 2024 after he defended his senate seat in 2018 from Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. Cruz’s bid for the presidency in 2016 ended in failure as Trump captured the Republican Party’s nomination.
Senator Josh Hawley
Governor Ron DeSantis
Potential 2024 Republican Presidential Candidates
Though we’re still more than 1,300 days away from the 2024 presidential election, potential candidates are already making stops in early caucus and primary states and working behind the scenes to prepare for a possible run.
Late last month, C-SPAN kicked off its “Road to the White House” coverage with a speech by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Iowa, and former Vice President Mike Pence is scheduled to give the keynote at a dinner for a social conservative group in South Carolina on April 29.
Republicans Not Named Trump Who Could Run In 2024
A growing number of Republicans are already jockeying ahead of 2024 as they await former President TrumpDonald TrumpTom Cotton calls on Biden to ‘destroy every Taliban fighter’ near KabulThe Memo: Fall in white population could add fuel to nativist fireMORE’s decision on another possible White House run.
While Trump has not confirmed whether he will launch a third presidential bid, he has repeatedly teased the idea since losing the election in 2020.
“I’m absolutely enthused. I look forward to doing an announcement at the right time,” Trump said earlier this month. “As you know, it’s very early. But I think people are going to be very, very happy when I make a certain announcement.”
But that hasn’t stopped speculation from building around other high-profile Republicans seen as potential heirs apparent to the former president.
Here are nine Republicans not named Trump who could run for president in 2024.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s response to the coronavirus pandemic in the Sunshine State has put him at the top of the list of rising stars within the Republican Party. The governor’s refusal to institute a statewide mask mandate and focus on keeping businesses open has earned him praise from conservative circles.
Independents Other Third Parties Or Party Unknown
Publicly expressed interest
|July 29 – August 3, 2021||467|
|July 30 – August 2, 2021||697|
|July 29 – August 3, 2021||467|
|July 30 – August 2, 2021||518|
|Feb 20 – March 2, 2021||1,264|
|July 29 – August 3, 2021||467|
|Feb 20 – March 2, 2021||1,264|
|December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021||209|
|Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle|
|January 20, 2021|
|Jun 30 – July 6, 2020||604|
|Nov 30 – December 2, 2020||624|
|Nov 30 – December 2, 2020||221|
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
|July 30 – August 2, 2021||1,552|
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Joe Biden vs. Ted Cruz
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
|July 29 – August 3, 2021||1,000|
Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence
Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis