The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
Trumps Favorability Rating Drops To New Low: Poll
Former President Trumps favorability rating has dropped to a new low after slowly trickling down over the past few months.
A new NBC News poll released Sunday found that 34 percent of registered voters said they have a positive view of Trump, while 54 percent say they have a negative view of him. Trumps favorability rating was at its lowest in April 2021, when his rating fell to 32 percent in the same NBC poll.
The former presidents favorability score is down slightly since last month, with the same 54 percent saying they have a negative view of Trump, but 36 percent saying they had a positive view of him.
While Trumps favorability score has trickled down, President Bidens score has gone up, though only slightly. This month, 45 percent said they approve of the president a 2-point increase since last month.
Contrarily, 52 percent of voters say they disapprove of Biden, which has gone down 3 percentage points since last month.
Pollsters also questioned voters about their views on the different investigations against Trump, specifically asking whether the various investigations should stop or continue. The poll found that 56 percent of voters believe the investigations should continue, while 41 percent say they should stop.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between Sept. 9-13, and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Two Different Paths To 41%
President Biden and former president Trump dont have a lot in common. But, they share the inauspicious distinction of having the lowest approval ratings in modern history for a president 500 days into his first term. The fivethirtyeight.com tracker has Bidens net approval rating at a dismal -13.3, two points lower than Trumps -11 in June of 2018.
But, the paths they took to these dismal ratings are very different.
Trump began his presidency with little support from independents and some skepticism among his own base. By the 2018 midterm election, Trump had consolidated his base, but remained deeply unpopular with independent voters. Meanwhile, Biden started his tenure with strong support from his partisans and decent approval ratings among independent voters. But, Biden lost altitude with both in the late summer/early fall of last year and has yet to regain that support.
The question now is whether the different routes their subpar approval ratings can tell us anything about the likely outcome of the November midterm.
However, opinions of Trump among independents started low and remained low throughout Trumps first two years in office. Gallup polling from the spring of 2017 found Trumps job approval ratings among independents at an anemic 36 percent. By the summer of 2018 they stayed in that same range . By October, just 38 percent of independents approved of the job Trump was doing in office.
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Approval Ratings Of Past Presidents
Donald Trump
When former-President Trump left office, his disapproval rate stood at fifty-seven percent, with 38.6 percent of the public supporting him. The highest approval rating Trump had while in office was in In April, Congress passed the CARES Act which distributed the first round of stimulus checks and bolstered unemployment benefits for the more than twenty-million workers who lost their jobs.
However, a few short months later, Donald Trumps approval rating took a nose dive to its lowest point in his presidency as he left office in part as a result of the events on January 6th.
Barack Obama
When former-president Obama was elected, he entered office with a historic approval rating of sixty-four percent. However, with the impacts of the financial crisis led this level of support to began to fall. Aside from a few peaks in popularity, the majority of Obamas term, the disapproval rate was above fifty percent. However, unlike Donald Trump, he left office with a net positive approval rate.
George W. Bush
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Trump Support Remains Unmoved By Investigations Poll Finds
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The American publics views of former President Donald J. Trump have remained remarkably stable across a number of different measures in recent months, even as he faces multiple investigations and as he remains a central figure in the midterm elections, according to the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
Voters held nearly identical views from those earlier in the summer on whether they had a favorable view of Mr. Trump, whether they thought he had committed serious federal crimes, and whom they would support in a hypothetical 2024 Trump-Biden matchup.
Overall, 44 percent of voters viewed Mr. Trump favorably, and 53 percent viewed him unfavorably . The recent poll was fielded early this month, after news of the Justice Departments inquiry into Mr. Trumps handling of confidential documents but before the New York attorney general announced she was suing Mr. Trump and his family business.
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How Trumps Second Impeachment Will Work
To be sure, the national polls underestimated Trumps performance in the national election, which he lost by 4 percentage points after trailing in the RealClearPolitics average by 7 points and the FiveThirtyEight average by 8 points.
But the latest polls conducted over the past week all show significant drops in support for Trump from the previous measurements with one notable exception: Rasmussen Reports. The Republican-leaning automated pollster, which has typically produced stronger results for Trump, has shown that the presidents approval ratings have been virtually unaffected by last weeks events.
Trumps final approval rating is far from settled, given the congressional sprint to impeach him in the closing week of his presidency. But he is poised to go down as one of the most unpopular presidents upon leaving office.
Barack Obamas approval rating rose in the final weeks of his presidency, following Trumps upset victory in the 2016 election. According to theRealClearPolitics average, Obamas approval rating finished at 57 percent, rising about 5 points between the election and Trumps inauguration in January 2017.
Trump is likely to finish closer to Bushs final ratings: 34 percent in the finalGallup poll the best historical record for modern presidential approval and 29 percent in the closingRealClearPolitics average.
More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents:Toplines |Crosstabs
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Who Was The Lowest Polled Us President
The Roper Center, an organization focused on public opinion research at Cornell University, cumulated polling highs and lows for 15 presidents, starting with former President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was elected in 1942.
Among those 15 presidents, the president who has had the lowest approval rating is former President George W. Bush, with a 19% rating in a survey carried out by the American Research Group in 2008.
Here are the six other presidents with the lowest approval ratings following Bush:
- Harry S. Truman polled at 22% in 1952.
- In 1974, Richard Nixon had a 23% rating.
- Jimmy Carter polled at 28% five years later.
- In January 2021, Trump had a 29% approval rating.
- George H.W. Bush polled the same as Trump in 1992.
- Biden makes the list with his 33% rating.
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Polling Average Put Biden’s Approval Rating Higher Than 39%
Experts say approval ratings should be calculated by looking at an average between polls not a single poll. On the day the claim was made, the polling average for Biden’s approval rating was 45.2%.
“The best practice to look at multiple polls and not to fixate on an individual poll, which can be cherry-picked to make inaccurate arguments,” Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in an email.
The website FiveThirtyEight rates how different polls vary in terms of accuracy and statistical bias. It calculates approval ratings for presidents based on a weighted average that takes into account poll quality and uncertainty.
According to that polling average, Biden’s approval rate was 45.2% on the day the claim was posted.
The Facebook post appeared to refer to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 4-7. It reported 39% of American adults approved of Biden. YouGov noted this was the first time the majority of Americans disapproved of Biden during his presidency.
However, Burden told USA TODAY this poll was “unusually low.”
Fact check:Claim that Biden is withholding benefits from unvaccinated veterans originated as satire
“In the last month YouGov has also reported approval ratings of 44% and 50%,” he said. “Taken as a group it is more accurate to say that Biden’s rating is hovering in the mid-40s.”
Question21 Regardless Of How You Intend To Vote Who Do You Think Would Do A Better Job
WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoTrump 38% 84% 4% 37% 46% 30% 31% 53%Biden 57 13 95 58 49 64 67 42DK/NA 5 3 1 5 4 5 2 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspTrump 25% 36% 45% 42% 50% 38% 44% 6% 36%Biden 69 60 51 56 46 58 52 91 56DK/NA 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 2 7
TrendTREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling a crisis: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
Trump Biden DK/NAJul 15, 2020 38 57 5Jun 18, 2020 43 54 4Apr 08, 2020 42 51 7Mar 09, 2020 40 56 5
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Question24 In General How Satisfied Are You With The Way Things Are Going In The Nation Today Are You Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Or Very Dissatisfied
WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoVery satisfied 7% 16% 2% 6% 8% 6% 5% 9%Smwht satisfied 17 33 4 19 21 14 14 26Smwht dissatisfied 18 25 10 21 21 15 18 18Very dissatisfied 56 25 83 54 49 63 63 46DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspVery satisfied 4% 4% 12% 8% 7% 8% 8% 4% 10%Smwht satisfied 9 18 22 19 24 17 21 4 14Smwht dissatisfied 20 19 17 18 19 16 18 14 19Very dissatisfied 64 59 49 54 48 58 53 77 54DK/NA 2 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
TrendTREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
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Unpopular Presidents Cost Their Parties In Midterms
Bidens diminishing standing should be alarming to Democrats working to hold control of Congress in the midterm elections this fall. While Bidens decline has not yet dragged down approval for most Democratic incumbents on the Senate side of the aisle, studies have shown an increasing association between a partys House performance and their presidents job approval rating.
When it comes to this president, specifically, surveys at this point have found that an aversion to Biden doesnt necessarily mean a vote against the Democratic Party come November, though that likely provides little solace given the bleak nature of the political environment.
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Data Download: The Numbers You Need To Know Today
58 percent: The share of Americans who say their bigger concern is making sure that everyone who wants to vote can do so, per new NBC News poll.
38 percent: The share who say their bigger concern is making sure that no one votes who is not eligible to vote.
1.6 million: The number of valid signatures collected by backers of the recall election against California Gov. Gavin Newsom, per the secretary of states office.
$400 million: How much the recall election could cost, according to the California Association of Clerks and Election Officials.
$15 an hour: The new minimum wage for federal contractors, starting in January, under an executive order that President Biden is set to sign.
89: The number of people New York fell short by in its count to retain one of its House seats.
32,276,517: The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States, per the most recent data from NBC News and health officials.
576,763: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far, per the most recent data from NBC News. (Thats 474 more than yesterday morning.
230,768,454: The number of vaccine doses administered in the U.S.
26.5 percent: The share of Americans who are fully vaccinated
2: The number of days left for Biden to reach his 100-day vaccination goal.
Sahil Kapur notes that Bidens first 100 days have been shaped in some ways by the first 100 days of his Democratic predecessor.
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
LAPTOP FROM HELL
Friday, May 27, 2022
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, sponsored by Miranda Devines LAPTOP FROM HELL for Friday shows that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Bidens job performance. Fifty-five percent disapprove.
The latest figures include 22% who Strongly Approve of the job Biden is doing and 46% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -24.
Regular updates are posted Monday through Friday at 9:30 a.m. Eastern .
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Now that Gallup has quit the field, Rasmussen Reports is the only nationally recognized public opinion firm that still tracks President Bidens job approval ratings on a daily basis. If your organization is interested in a weekly or longer sponsorship of Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, please send e-mail to.
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Who Was The Highest Polled Us President
George W. Bush holds the record for the lowest approval ratings, according to the Roper Center. But this former president is also the only one to have a rating above 90%.
In a poll conducted by ABC News in October 2001, he received an approval rating of 92%. The closest to come to this number was George H.W. Bush, who polled at 89% in 1991.
Other presidents who had high approval ratings are:
- Truman had an 87% rating in 1945.
- Franklin D. Roosevelt had an approval rating of 84% in 1942.
- Polling in 1961 found John F. Kennedy had an 83% approval rating.
- Lyndon B. Johnson had an 80% approval rating in 1964.
- In 2009, Barack Obama had a 76% approval rating.
Presidential Job Approval Center
Presidential job approval is a simple, yet powerful, measure of the public’s view of the U.S. president’s job performance at a particular point in time.
The approval ratings reported here are based on periodic multiday Gallup polls for Presidents Harry Truman through George W. Bush weekly Gallup Daily tracking averages for President Barack Obama weekly Gallup Daily tracking averages for President Donald Trump in 2017 and 2018 and periodic multiday Gallup polls for Trump starting in 2019. Learn more.
Explore public opinion metrics that matter for the 2020 presidential election. Visit Gallup’s 2020 Presidential Election Center to compare key indicators that put the 2020 election in historical context.
Buy a subscription to our database, Gallup Analytics, to access and export weekly, monthly and yearly presidential job approval ratings.
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Opinion: The Voters Sent A Message To Trump And Biden
Editors Note: to get this weekly column as a newsletter. Were looking back at the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and other outlets.
In Arthur Conan Doyles story, Silver Blaze, Sherlock Holmes investigates the disappearance of a famous racehorse and the tragic murder of its trainer. A police inspector asks the detective, Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?
Holmes replies, To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.
The dog did nothing in the night-time, the inspector said.
That was the curious incident. It was the dog that didnt bark because it knew the intruder well that helped Holmes solve the mystery.
The red wave that didnt break could help unravel the mystery of what happened last week.
Republicans failed to achieve the resounding midterm victory typically won by an opposition party against a president with a low approval rating. Democrats not only held on to control of the Senate but could increase their number by one if Georgia Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock defeats Republican Herschel Walker in a runoff election next month. And if Republicans win a House majority, it will be by just a few seats.
It was only a little more than a week ago that Republicans thought theyd be savoring a crushing victory and some Democrats were starting to blame each other for what they feared would be a disaster.
The actual results sent some very different messages:
