How Many Senate Seats Republicans Picked Up

Mitch Mcconnells Nightmare Scenario

Why a GOP takeover in this falls midterms is not quite a sure thing

The names Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, Sharron Angle, and Christine ODonnell have been lost to history, consigned to the dustbin of Beltway barroom trivia. For Mitch McConnell, however, they remain an all-too-fresh reminder of opportunities squandered.

McConnell became Senate majority leader in 2015, but had it not been for those four flawed and ultimately defeated Republican candidates, he might have reached his dream job years earlier. Now McConnell is trying to regain that powerful perch, and a slate of similarly problematic contenders in key states may be all that stands in his way.

On paper, Republicans have a prime opportunity to recapture the Senate majority this fall. They need to pick up just a single seat to break the current 5050 tie, and the political environment is tilting heavily in their favor. President Joe Bidens approval rating is mired in the low 40s, inflation is rampant, and the Democratic majority rests on a trio of vulnerable incumbents in statesArizona, Georgia, and Nevadathat the president carried by fewer than 60,000 votes combined in 2020.

McConnell is well aware of the GOPs good fortunes this yearand how easily the party could blow it. How could you screw this up? the once and perhaps future majority leader mused recently in Kentucky. Its actually possible. And weve had some experience with that in the past.

United States Senate Elections 2022

Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on , and 34 of the 100 seats are up for regular election. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections in 2022 will begin their six-year terms on January 3, 2023.

Two special elections are also scheduled for November 8, 2022. One special election will be held to fill the final four years of Sen. Jim Inhofe‘s six-year term that began in 2021. Inhofe announced his resignation effective January 3, 2023. The other special election will be held to fill the final weeks of the six-year term that Kamala Harris was elected to in 2016. That U.S. Senate seat is also up for regular election in 2022, for a total of 35 individual seats up.

Fourteen seats held by Democrats and 21 seats held by Republicans are up for election in 2022. Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump won in 2020.

Following the 2020 Senate elections and the January 2021 runoffs in Georgia, Democrats and Republicans split the chamber 50-50. This gave Vice President Kamala Harris a tie-breaking vote, and Democrats control of the U.S. Senate via a power-sharing agreement.

On this page, you will find information on the following:

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona, 2022

As of June 2022, election forecasters viewed this race as a Toss-up.

United States Senate Republican Party Primaries 2022

Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on , and 34 of the 100 seats are up for regular election. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections in 2022 will begin their six-year terms on January 3, 2023.

On this page, you will find:

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The Senate Seats Most Likely To Flip In 2022

The 2022 United States Senate elections can best be thought of as the classic battle between the irresistible force and the immovable object. The irresistible force is the playing field. President Joe Bidens job approval in the RCP Average is currently 39.7 percent, the lowest of his presidency. Thats about 3.5 points lower than Barack Obamas job approval was on Election Day 2010. President Obamas job approval only dipped to 40 percent briefly, in the immediate aftermath of the botched Obamacare rollout, and it never dropped below 40 percent. President Donald Trumps job approval spent much of 2017 below this mark, but in the terrible Republican election year of 2018, it never fell this low.

In other words, this is shaping up to be a worse environment than either of the last three midterms, all of which were nightmares for the party in power.

But the immovable object is real as well: To say that the GOP has failed to field its top team is an understatement. It failed to recruit its preferred candidates in almost every marquee race, including significant failures in New Hampshire, Maryland, Colorado, and Arizona. This deficiency intersects with a reasonably unfavorable map for Republicans Democrats arent defending a single seat in a state that Joe Biden lost, and they have opportunities against Republicans in two states that went for the president in 2020.

With that background, here are the Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022.

Tier III Races

Presidential Election Results In 2022 Senate States

• Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election:
• Pennsylvania: Biden defeated Donald Trump 50.0%-48.8%. Incumbent Pat Toomey is not seeking re-election.
• Wisconsin, Biden defeated Trump 49.5%-48.8%. Incumbent Ron Johnson is seeking re-election.

• Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Trump won in 2020.

• In the 2020 Senate elections, Democrats and Republicans each defended two seats won by the other party’s presidential candidate in 2016. for more information.

The following table shows the 2020 presidential election margin of victory in percentage points for each state with a Senate election in 2022. Click on the right to expand the table.

The 117th Congress has the fewest number of states with split Senate delegations in history, according to Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota: “Prior to the 117th, only one congress has convened with fewer than 10 split-delegation states â the 84th Congress following the Election of 1954. That cycle produced nine states with one Democratic and Republican U.S. Senator.”

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Mcconnell Casts Doubt On Republicans Gaining Senate Control

Even though history strongly favors the party out of power in this case the GOP to make gains in midterm races, McConnell has long worried that subpar candidates could play into Democrats’ hands.

While he didn’t mention any names, there are examples across the country.

In Pennsylvania’s open Senate race, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed its rating Thursday from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” as GOP nominee Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor, struggles against Democrat John Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor, who leads in recent polls.

Apart from Oz, Republicans have nominated numerous first-time candidates backed by former President Donald Trump in states such as Georgia, Arizona and Ohio to run against seasoned Democratic politicians. The Senate Leadership Fund, a group aligned with McConnell, recently bought $28 million worth of airtime in Ohio to support Republican nominee J.D. Vance.

The Republican Party establishment alsofailed to recruit preferred candidates in other states, like New Hampshire.

McConnell may be feeling déjà vu from 2010 and 2012 when his party fell short of capturing control of the chamber in part due to weak candidates such as Christine ODonnell in Delaware, Sharron Angle in Nevada and Todd Akin in Missouri.

States That Lost Seats

California continues to be the most populous state in the country, but its pace of growth has slowed enough that it will lose a seat in the next Congress. That means the states independent redistricting commission will have to decide what part of the state loses representation, which could hurt one party. Based on population growth, the endangered seat could very well be a district located completely or partly in Los Angeles County. And because Democrats control almost all of those seats, that could mean they will suffer a net loss from Californias redistricting. However, the removal of a district could make Republican Rep. Mike Garcias seat in northern Los Angeles County even more Democratic-leaning than it already is Biden carried it by 10 points if the districts new lines stretch further southward, which would give Democrats a better chance of capturing that seat.

Lastly, we know for sure that Republicans will be the ones to lose a seat in West Virginia. All three current members of Congress from the Mountain State belong to the GOP, so at least one out of Reps. David McKinley, Alex Mooney or Carol Miller will not be in the next Congress. Expect a lot of intrigue surrounding how, exactly, the seat is redrawn and perhaps a rare incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary election.

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Numerous Freshman Democrats Lost Reelection

The vulnerable first-term Democrats who Decision Desk HQ projects to lose reelection are Reps. TJ Cox, Gil Cisneros, and Harley Rouda of California, Reps. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala of Florida, Rep. Abby Finkenauer of Iowa, Rep. Xochitl Torres Small of New Mexico, Rep. Max Rose of New York, Rep. Kendra Horn of Oklahoma, Rep. Joe Cunningham of South Carolina, and Rep. Ben McAdams of Utah.

Rep. Collin Peterson, a long-serving Democratic representative in a Minnesota district that Trump won by 30 points, also lost reelection.

Some House Democrats who flipped Republican suburban and exurban seats in 2018 did win reelection, however, including Rep. Lucy McBath of Georgia, Rep. Katie Porter of California, Reps. Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger, and Jennifer Wexton of Virginia, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey.

Democratic Target: North Carolina

Forecast: Leans Republican

A protracted GOP primary to replace retiring Sen. Richard Burr could set the stage for a competitive general election. After struggling for months, Donald Trumps pick Ted Budd built a commanding advantage over the final months of the primary ending speculation that the former president badly miscalculated by endorsing the little-known House member.

On the Democratic side, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley has cleared the primary field. But Democrats havent won a presidential or Senate election in North Carolina since 2008.

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What Advantages Do Senate Democrats Have In This Bare Majority

Perhaps the most significant advantage for Democrats is the ability to confirm Bidens Cabinet and Supreme Court nominations with a simple majority, or 51 votes. Each of these processes once required a 60 percent majority vote until senators moved in 2013 to lower the threshold to 51 votes to advance confirmations for most executive-level and federal judicial nominations. In 2017 senators established the same lower threshold to approve Supreme Court nominations.

Four Cabinet or Cabinet-level members have been confirmed by large margins for Bidens administration so far, including Lloyd Austin as the first Black secretary of defense and Janet Yellen as the first woman to serve as treasury secretary. Austin and Yellen were confirmed by 93-2 and 84-15 votes, respectively. Nineteen of Bidens nominees are still awaiting confirmation votes.

As the majority party, Democrats are expected to control the agenda for Senate operations, including policy and oversight committees.

How Many Senate Seats Are Up For Grabs In 2022

In the Senate, there will be 34 out of 100 seats available. Special elections may be held to fill the vacant seats in the senate. Those senators elected in 2022 will begin their six-year term on January 3, 2023.

In the Senate, the Democrats have 14 seats up for election in 2022. The Republicans will have 20 seats up for grabs in the election. The Republican party will be defending 2 Senate seats in the states that President Joe Biden won.

Those seats are in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Democrats are not defending any senate seats that former President Donald Trump won in 2020.

Thirty-two of the thirty-four seats up in 2022 were voted on in 2016. The Democrats gained three seats in the 2020 election. The Democrats have total control of the House and the Senate.

Read Also: Republican Senators Up For Election

Us Senate Elections 2012

Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. Senate elections held between 2012 and 2020, including special elections. Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. While the 2 parties split these contests almost evenly, with Democratic candidates winning 89 contests and Republican candidates winning 85, there was considerable variation from year to year. Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 2012 and 2018 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. These differences in results reflected differences in the partisan makeup of the 3 classes of Senate seats as well as differences in the national political environment at the time of each election.

Republicans Are Expected To Gain Seats In Redrawn 2022 Congressional Maps But Democrats Could Be Worse Off

U.S. Census data released Monday will shift political power in Congress, reapportioning two House seats to Texas and one each to Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, Colorado, and Montana and stripping a seat from California , New York , Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and West Virginia. Florida, Texas, and Arizona each controlled entirely by Republicans had been expecting to pick up an additional seat.

“On balance, I think this reapportionment offers a small boost for Republicans, but the bigger boost is likely to come from how Republicans draw these seats in Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia,” the Cook Political Report‘s Dave Wasserman tells Axios. “Reapportionment itself means little compared to the redistricting fights to come.” It won’t exactly be a level playing field.

“Republicans control the redistricting process in far more states than do Democrats, because of GOP dominance in down-ballot elections,”The New York Times reports. “Democrats, meanwhile, have shifted redistricting decisions in states where they have controlled the government such as California, Colorado, and Virginia to independent commissions intended to create fair maps.”

House seats broken down by final redistricting authority :

– Republican: 187

Dave Wasserman

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‘flippable Five’: Democrats Team Up To Flip Gop

WASHINGTON â Five Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate are raising money together, as they try to win five U.S. Senate seats now held by Republicans.

What You Need To Know

• Mandela Barnes of Wisconsin, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Cheri Beasley of North Carolina, Tim Ryan of Ohio and Val Demmings of Florida announced what theyâre calling the “Flippable Five Fund”

• They’re pitching to donors that if all five are elected, Congress is much more likely to enact progressive policies

• Barnesâ team said at the moment there are no plans for the five to campaign in person together

âIt’s really taken off in recent cycles,â Brendan Glavin, senior data analyst for Open Secrets said. âHistorically, were more associated with the presidential campaigns and congressional party committees.â

Democrats have long eyed Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as their best opportunities to expand their razor thin majority. In recent weeks, they have come to believe that GOP seats in North Carolina, Florida and Ohio also are vulnerable. The announcement that the five Democratic candidates in those races are teaming up for fundraising reflects the partyâs increased optimism heading into the fall campaign.

âOur races are Democratsâ best chance to pick up seats this November and bring change to Washington,â Cheri Beasley, North Carolina candidate for U.S. Senate wrote in part in a tweet announcing the fund.

These 7 States Will Decide Control Of The Senate

Republicans only need to net one seat to win control of the Senate. These are the swing states each party is targeting.

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is leading the pack in his state’s Democratic Senate primary, the party’s best pickup opportunity in its fight to keep control of the chamber. | Mark Pynes/The Patriot-News via AP

05/17/2022 04:31 AM EDT

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Control of the Senate is the biggest storyline of the 2022 midterm elections. With Democrats holding a tight 50-50 majority, Republicans only need to net one seat to win control. The situations looking favorable for the GOP, but their path is filled with landmines especially in primaries across the map.

Here are the seven most competitive Senate races to watch that will determine control of the chamber.

Before we dive in, we invite you to join our Telegram channel, where well keep you posted with the most important updates around key races this year with a special focus on control of the Senate.

Now lets get to it.

Your guide to the May 17 primaries

• Who’s got primaries? Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania
• What are the key races? PA SEN , NC SEN , NC-01 and NC-04 , NC-11 and NC-13 , OR-05 and OR-06 , PA-12

Forecast: Toss-up

This is Democrats best pickup opportunity in their fight to hold on to the chamber. GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is retiring, subjecting Republicans to a messy primary as they survey the Senate landscape.

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The Gop’s Coming Us Senate Landslide

There is consensus that U.S. House Republicans will win a majority this fall, and that Kevin McCarthy will be the next speaker of the House.

There is a lot more confusion about the U.S. Senate races. Republicans are handwringing, and Democrats are hopeful as they think through the state-by-state races for U.S. Senate.

But there’s a flaw in the popular Senate race analysis. Most people are thinking about Senate races as small, individual contests. When you think of each race as small and individual, there is hope the Democrats could keep the current 50-50 splitor lose only a few seats. This kind of small race analysis emphasizes candidate quality, money raised, and current polling .

But if the 2022 Senate elections are analyzed and run as a big, nationalized races, the Democrats will likely lose the Senate by a wide margin.

When you have 9.1% inflation , Democratic candidates at any level should feel like they are in trouble. The highest price of gasoline in historymore than double the price just two years agodoes not help them.

And those aren’t the only problems Americans are seeing and feeling every day. Add skyrocketing murder, rape, and robbery rates millions of people entering the country illegally receiving taxpayer-funded benefits, and continuing labor and supply chain disruptions caused by destructive government programs. Further, consider the unpopular cultural policies being implemented by federal bureaucrats with aggressive agendas.