How Many Senate Seats Are Up For Grabs In 2022
In the Senate, there will be 34 out of 100 seats available. Special elections may be held to fill the vacant seats in the senate. Those senators elected in 2022 will begin their six-year term on January 3, 2023.
In the Senate, the Democrats have 14 seats up for election in 2022. The Republicans will have 20 seats up for grabs in the election. The Republican party will be defending 2 Senate seats in the states that President Joe Biden won.
Those seats are in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Democrats are not defending any senate seats that former President Donald Trump won in 2020.
Thirty-two of the thirty-four seats up in 2022 were voted on in 2016. The Democrats gained three seats in the 2020 election. The Democrats have total control of the House and the Senate.
Focus On Competitive Races
Democrats targeted Republican-held Senate seats in and . Seats in , and were also competitive for the Democrats. Republicans targeted Democratic-held seats in , , , North Dakota and West Virginia, all of which had voted Republican in both the 2012 presidential election and the 2016 presidential election. Seats in , , , and , all of which voted for Trump in 2016, were also targeted by Republicans. The Democratic-held seat in New Jersey was also considered unexpectedly competitive due to corruption allegations surrounding the Democratic incumbent.
What Advantages Do Senate Democrats Have In This Bare Majority
Perhaps the most significant advantage for Democrats is the ability to confirm Bidens Cabinet and Supreme Court nominations with a simple majority, or 51 votes. Each of these processes once required a 60 percent majority vote until senators moved in 2013 to lower the threshold to 51 votes to advance confirmations for most executive-level and federal judicial nominations. In 2017 senators established the same lower threshold to approve Supreme Court nominations.
Four Cabinet or Cabinet-level members have been confirmed by large margins for Bidens administration so far, including Lloyd Austin as the first Black secretary of defense and Janet Yellen as the first woman to serve as treasury secretary. Austin and Yellen were confirmed by 93-2 and 84-15 votes, respectively. Nineteen of Bidens nominees are still awaiting confirmation votes.
As the majority party, Democrats are expected to control the agenda for Senate operations, including policy and oversight committees.
Such committees include the Senate Judiciary, charged with confirmation hearings for federal judges and Supreme Court justices, as well as oversight of the Justice Department. The incoming Senate Judiciary chair Dick Durbin, D-Ill., has already expressed plans to probe former President Donald Trumps efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.
Opinion:the House Looks Like A Gop Lock In 2022 But The Senate Will Be Much Harder
Redistricting will take place in almost every congressional district in the next 18 months. The party of first-term presidents usually loses seats in midterms following their inauguration President Barack Obamas Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trumps Republicans lost 40 in 2018 but the redistricting process throws a wrench into the gears of prediction models.
President George W. Bush saw his party add nine seats in the House in 2002. Many think this was a consequence of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America nearly 14 months earlier, but the GOP, through Republican-led state legislatures, controlled most of the redistricting in the two years before the vote, and thus gerrymandering provided a political benefit. Republicans will also have a firm grip on redistricting ahead of the 2022 midterms.
The Brennan Center has that the GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats, though the final numbers could fluctuate once the pandemic-delayed census is completed. Gerrymandering for political advantage has its critics, but both parties engage in it whenever they get the opportunity. In 2022, Republicans just have much better prospects. Democrats will draw districts in Illinois and Massachusetts to protect Democrats, while in Republican-controlled states such as Florida, Ohio and Texas, the GOP will bring the redistricting hammer down on Democrats.
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Numerous Freshman Democrats Lost Reelection
The vulnerable first-term Democrats who Decision Desk HQ projects to lose reelection are Reps. TJ Cox, Gil Cisneros, and Harley Rouda of California, Reps. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala of Florida, Rep. Abby Finkenauer of Iowa, Rep. Xochitl Torres Small of New Mexico, Rep. Max Rose of New York, Rep. Kendra Horn of Oklahoma, Rep. Joe Cunningham of South Carolina, and Rep. Ben McAdams of Utah.
Rep. Collin Peterson, a long-serving Democratic representative in a Minnesota district that Trump won by 30 points, also lost reelection.
Some House Democrats who flipped Republican suburban and exurban seats in 2018 did win reelection, however, including Rep. Lucy McBath of Georgia, Rep. Katie Porter of California, Reps. Elaine Luria, Abigail Spanberger, and Jennifer Wexton of Virginia, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey.
Senate Seats Most Likely To Flip In 2022
Democratic control of Congress will be on the line next year as Republicans look to claw their way back into power after a disappointing 2020 election that cost them the White House and their Senate majority.
But despite the conventional wisdom that the party of a new president tends to lose ground in the midterms, Senate Democrats are staring down several offensive opportunities in 2022 as they look to expand their ultra-narrow majority in the upper chamber.
Still, the GOP has pickup opportunities of its own, especially in states that Democrats only managed to win recently.
Here are the nine Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022:
Joe BidenTom Cotton calls on Biden to ‘destroy every Taliban fighter’ near Kabul Pelosi ‘deeply concerned’ for women amid Taliban gains in Afghanistans narrow win here in 2020 have given Democrats what they see as one of their best opportunities to flip a Senate seat that has been held by Republicans for 50 of the past 52 years.
The Democratic primary field is also crowded, attracting candidates like Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, a surrogate for Biden during the 2020 campaign. Others in the race include Val Arkoosh, the chair of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners.
More candidates could soon follow, including Rep. Conor Lamb , who is said to be considering a Senate bid.
Cook Political Report: Senate Gop Spending Almost Entirely Defensive
The stakes are enormous for the legislative agenda of the next president a re-elected Donald Trump or apparent Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who leads in national polls and most swing states as well as the future of the courts. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the leader of the liberal wing, turns 88 next year, and the next Senate might get to confirm her successor.
Trumps struggles in historically Republican states, like and , are creating collateral damage for his partys Senate candidates. Public skepticism of Trumps handling of the pandemic, and a Bidens expanding lead since the nationwide to George Floyds death, has put many GOP Senate candidates in a difficult position. Theyre forced to navigate a polarizing president whose ardent supporters they cannot afford to alienate and whose skeptics theyll likely need to attract to win.
Democrats currently have 47 seats four short of an outright majority and three shy of a controlling number should Biden win as his vice president could cast any tie-breaking votes. Theyre more likely than not to lose one seat in Alabama, held by Sen. Doug Jones, but have lots of pickup opportunities. GOP-held seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina are rated toss up by the Cook Political Report.
Dems Keep House Gop Holds Key Senate Seats Nbc News Projects
WASHINGTON Democrats will maintain of the House of Representatives, NBC News projects, but their path to taking control of the Senate has narrowed significantly as numerous Republican incumbents fended off strong opposition.
Democrats failed to pick up some of the Senate seats they were banking on to capture a majority. Their hopes for a big night were dashed up and down the ballot, as President Donald Trump outperformed his polls against Joe Biden in a race still to be decided.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins was by NBC News as the apparent winner.
Other GOP senators who were Democratic targets hung on: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Montana Sen. Steve Daines and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham were all re-elected, NBC News projected.
Adding some uncertainty, the Georgia special election is headed to a runoff on Jan. 5 between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, NBC News projects.
Democrats will pick up a Senate seat in Colorado as John Hickenlooper is projected by NBC News to unseat Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, marking the party’s first gain.
Offsetting that, Republicans will pick up a seat in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tuberville is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, NBC News projects.
In Arizona, the Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leads but NBC News rates it “too early to call.”
In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis leads Democrat Cal Cunningham narrowly but the race is rated “too close to call.”
Important Dates And Deadlines
|Primary dates and filing deadlines, 2020|
|State||Filing deadline for primary candidates||Primary date|
|04/21/2020 & 05/08/2020||08/04/2020|
|04/24/2020 & 6/12/2020|
|05/05/2020 & 06/02/2020||09/01/2020|
Potentially Competitive Us Senate Races In 2022
Held by Republicans
|Maggie Hassan||Biden +7.4|
The Democrats could also have opportunities in Ohio, where Sen. Rob Portman is retiring, and in Florida, home of Sen. Marco Rubio , but both of these once-preeminent swing states have drifted toward the GOP in recent elections and could be tough to pick off in 2022.
The GOPs top two pickup opportunities are also readily apparent: Arizona and Georgia. Both were among the most narrowly decided states that Biden won, and both have a history of favoring Republicans. Both are home to Democratic incumbents who won their seats in 2020 special elections: Sens. Mark Kelly and Raphael G. Warnock . The GOPs path back to a majority begins with reclaiming these two states.
Beyond that, though, obvious GOP opportunities are harder to come by. New Hampshire could be competitive if popular Gov. Chris Sununu challenges Sen. Maggie Hassan , but it has trended in the Democrats favor in recent years, going for Biden by seven points last year. Ditto Nevada, where first-term Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is up for reelection, but the GOP bench is somewhat limited as the state has also drifted blue in recent years.
Democrats control of the House is arguably more imperiled than their hold on the Senate. Thats a function of the Senate seats that are up for reelection as well as the lay of the land in the House.
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Effect Of Republican Retirements
Trump Makes History By Adding Seats To Gop Senate Majority In His First Midterm Election
Trump campaigned in Florida this past weekend.Republican Ron DeSantis won the governorship and Rick Scott won his senate race!
Thanks to President TrumpRepublicans picked up 4 new Senate seats on Tuesday with wins in Florida, Missouri, Indiana and North Dakata.Arizona, Montana and Nevada were still being decided.By the end of the night President Trump will gain at least one senate seat and as many as five new GOP senators.
This is historic.And President Trump was eager to tell the nation of his success tonight.
The President quoted Ben Stein tonight: Theres only been 5 times in the last 105 years that an incumbent President has won seats in the Senate in the off year election. Mr. Trump has magic about him. This guy has magic coming out of his ears. He is an astonishing vote getter & campaigner. The Republicans are unbelievably lucky to have him and Im just awed at how well theyve done. Its all the Trump magic Trump is the magic man. Incredible, hes got the entire media against him, attacking him every day, and he pulls out these enormous wins.Ben Stein, The Capitalist Code
Theres only been 5 times in the last 105 years that an incumbent President has won seats in the Senate in the off year election. Mr. Trump has magic about him. This guy has magic coming out of his ears. He is an astonishing vote getter & campaigner. The Republicans are
Trump’s Former Physician Wins House Seat
Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician who served under both Presidents Trump and Obama, has won his race in Texas’ 13th Congressional District. Jackson rose to prominence in 2018 when he gave a glowing press conference about Mr. Trump’s health.
Mr. Trump nominated Jackson to be Veterans Affairs secretary last year, but Jackson withdrew amid allegations that he drank on the job and over-prescribed medications. In his House race, Jackson has closely aligned himself with Mr. Trump. He has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic and criticized mask-wearing requirements. He has also promoted baseless claims about Biden’s mental health.
Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw also won reelection. Crenshaw is a conservative firebrand and a rising GOP star in the House.
The House’s Balance Of Power Is Tipped Toward Democrats
The Democratshave a narrow six-member margin in the current House of Representatives, meaning if just a handful of seats flip, Republicans can regain control of the House.
Democrats’advantagewill grow to seven when Troy Carter is sworn into fill a seat in Louisiana’s delegation left vacantby Cedric Richmond, who left the House to join the Biden administration as the director of the White House Office of Public Engagement.
Cori Bush Becomes Missouri’s First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects
Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and , has become Missouri’s first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the state’s first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.
Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. “As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment,” she told supporters in St. Louis.
Read more .
How Is Senate Majority Chosen
The Senate Republican and Democratic floor leaders are elected by the members of their party in the Senate at the beginning of each Congress. Depending on which party is in power, one serves as majority leader and the other as minority leader. The leaders serve as spokespersons for their partys positions on issues.
Cori Bush Becomes Missouris First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects
Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and , has become Missouris first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the states first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.
Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment, she told supporters in St. Louis.
Read more .
Iowa: Joni Ernst Vs Bruce Braley
Republican Joni Ernst defeated Rep. Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race to fill the open seat vacated by the retirement of Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democratic stalwart in the state. Ernst, 44, will be the first female senator to ever represent Iowa, a state that catapulted Barack Obamas career just six years ago.
Ernst, an Iraq war veteran, shocked the political establishment when she won a crowded GOP primary in June. Ernst, a little known state senator, burst onto the national scene after releasing an attention grabbing ad called Squeal, which featured her talking about castrating hogs.
Braley stumbled throughout his campaign from making remarks that insulted some Iowa farmers to threatening a lawsuit against his neighbor over roaming chickens. Republican and Democratic surrogates with potential 2016 ambitions flooded Iowa in the final weeks of the campaign to help their candidates.
Democrats Flip The Senate In A Devastating Blow To Trump And Republicans
The Democratic Party has won control of the US Senate, according to the projected results of two crucial runoff elections in Georgia.
The Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock as of early Wednesday were projected to win their races against Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.
The Senate will now consist of 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with the Democrats, resulting in a 50-50 split. But Democrats will effectively control the chamber because incoming Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tiebreaking vote.
The Senate map was stacked against the GOP in the 2020 election cycle. Of the 35 senators up for reelection, 12 were Democrats and 23 were Republicans. Of those, Republicans had to defend 10 seats in races considered competitive, while Democrats had to defend only two.
Democratic Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama was widely expected to lose his seat, meaning Democrats hoped to pick up four seats to get to a 50-50 tie and five seats to gain a majority.
States Where One Party Gained Seats In Both Chambers
There were 19 states where either Democrats, Republicans, or both had a net gain of state legislative seats in both state legislative chambers. Democrats had a net gain in both legislative chambers of six states. Republicans had a net gain in both legislative chambers of 15 states. This analysis includes seats vacant at the time of the election as its own category. This means a party may be recorded as gaining a seat that was most recently held by a member of the same party if that seat was vacant at the time of the election.
The table below shows these states and the net gains made by each party in both state legislative chambers. Democratic gains are shown on the left. Republican gains are shown on the right.
|States where one party gained seats in both chambers, 2020|
Eighty-six of 99 state legislative chambers across 44 states held general elections on November 3, 2020. Partisan control flipped in two chambersRepublicans gained majorities in the New Hampshire House of Representatives and the New Hampshire State Senate.
Heading into the 2020 elections, Republicans had majorities in 59 chambers and Democrats had majorities in 39 chambers. In the Alaska House, there was a power-sharing agreement between the parties as part of a coalition.
Key Races That Could Determine The Senate Majority
To take the majority, Democrats would have to net three seats, should Biden win the presidency, or four seats, if Mr. Trump wins reelection, because its the vice president who breaks ties in the Senate. The current balance of the Republican-controlled Senate is 53 to 47.
Here is a rundown of the key Senate races in this years election:
Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah : Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, its worth kicking off the conversation around what we do and dont know about Republicans and Democrats odds headed into the midterms.
Lets start big picture. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Case in point: Since 1946, the presidents party has lost, on average, 27 House seats.
What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?
alex : Yes, and heres why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map are redrawn. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters.
geoffrey.skelley :Simply put, as that chart above shows, the expectation is that Democrats, as the party in the White House, will lose seats in the House.
nrakich : What they said!
Poll How Many Senates Seats To Be Picked Up By Republicans
|Registered User||You didn’t put in how many seats will be picked up by Democrats. Remember, we have it on good authority that with the economy continuing to improve that the Republicans will lose even more seats, and by 2012 the “ex-community organizer” will win by a landslide. By the way, where is he? I haven’t seen him on here for a long time.|
|Tu ne cede malis||The paratrooper has little tolerance for a non favorable demographic environment. The 8 year hate was a hothouse for that particular orchid. The emergence of open resistance across society from people who have finally had enough and who have learned to simply ignore the former golden bullets of ‘racist’ or ‘hater’ which comprises the bulk of the the rounds in the ‘progressive’ ammunition belt has resulted in a very different political scene, here and everywhere else.|
|Forever TMWT Pilot #11||All of those people who are truly afraid to say anything because of the caustic liberal environment they live and work in will be heard loudest at the ballot box. I don’t think even the most ardent Conservatives have any idea of what is going to happen this time around.|