The Seven Senate Seats Most Likely To Flip In 2022
Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to hold on to their ultra-narrow Senate majority this year in a midterm election cycle that has several of the partys most vulnerable incumbents facing voters amid rising inflation and surging gas prices.
Republicans need to net just one new seat this year to reclaim control of the upper chamber. Still, Democrats are more optimistic about their chances of holding their Senate majority than they are their House majority and are eyeing several opportunities to flip GOP-held seats.
Here are the seven Senate seats most likely to flip in November:
Sen. Pat Toomeys retirement and President Bidens narrow victory in the Keystone State in 2020 have transformed Pennsylvania into perhaps the most competitive battleground of the midterm elections, offering Democrats one of few opportunities this year to take control of a GOP-held Senate seat.
Democrats have coalesced around Lt. Gov. John Fettermans Senate bid. He easily won the partys nomination last month, beating out his main rival, Rep. Conor Lamb , by a 32-point margin.
Former President Trumps endorsed candidate, celebrity physician Mehmet Oz, clinched the Republican nomination, but only after a recount. Ultimately, he defeated his top primary opponent, former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, by fewer than 1,000 votes.
Outside of Pennsylvania, the Senate race in Wisconsin is one of Democrats best chances of flipping a Republican-held seat.
The Big Picture: Why The Gop Leads
1) It’s a “nature of the times” election right now.
Voters’ top decision criteria right now is “the way things are in the country” and that’s lousy news for Democrats, as the party in power. Republicans are up 16 points among those saying they’re basing their vote a lot on it. Those saying things are going very badly break heavily Republican.
2) Key parts of the Democratic coalition might sit this year out.
Like typical midterm electorates, this one is shaping up to be older and more conservative than the country as a whole. Our likely voter estimates indicate that as of now there are more 2020 Trump voters than Biden voters planning to vote this year, an obvious reversal from the last general election.
When Democrats took control of the House in 2018, the party affiliation of the electorate was four points more Democrat than Republican. Our estimates today show the opposite pattern: Republicans outpace Democrats by four points. So it’s just a more Republican-looking electorate overall.
3) The districts themselves.
The House consists of mostly safe seats that would survive even a wave election were one to emerge, and nothing in our model suggests otherwise. But between the geographic distribution of voters and the redistricting process and gerrymandering, Republicans get a lot of bang for their buck in translating even relatively small vote shifts into seat flips.
How Many Republicans And Democrats Are In The Senate
Subsequently, one may also ask, is the House of Representatives Democrat or Republican?
The 2014 elections gave the Republicans control of the Senate for the first time since the 109th Congress. With 248 seats in the House of Representatives and 54 seats in the Senate, this Congress began with the largest Republican majority since the 71st Congress of 19291931.
How many members of Congress are Democrats?
House of Representatives: 248 Republicans , 192 Democrats and one vacancy. Senate: 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats.
What happens in the case of a vacancy in the House?
When vacancies happen in the Representation from any State, the Executive Authority thereof shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies. House vacancies can be caused by death, resignation, declination, withdrawal, or House action, but the Constitution requires that they be filled by election.
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States With Obamacare Lawsuits
Attorneys general in 27 states filed lawsuits in 2010 and 2011 challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. Two-thirds of those attorney general seats were up for election in 2014. The following table tracks partisan control over these attorney general offices before and after the 2014 election.
Note:Catherine Cortez Masto refused to file a lawsuit against the federal government in 2010, leading then-Gov. Jim Gibbons to appoint attorney to sue the government on the states behalf.
States involved in Obamacare lawsuits State
Voters weighed in on some of the nations most contentious topics during the 2014 elections, making this election cycle one of the most significant in recent history. Decisions made at the ballot box established important precedents and set the tone for future elections. Below are the statewide measures Ballotpedia identified as the most important, high-profile and divisive of 2014. These measures were selected based on the issues addressed, the amount of money spent on them, the volume of media attention focused on each, and the likelihood that the outcomes of these measures would affect future ballot measure elections. The chart below was updated as results came in.
Topics on the ballot:
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Registered Democratic Voters Outnumber Republicans By Nearly 90k In Nevada
The Nevada secretary of states office on Friday reported there are 1,464,819 active registered voters statewide who are eligible to participate in the Nov. 8 general election.
CARSON CITY The Nevada secretary of states office on Friday reported there are 1,464,819 active registered voters statewide who are eligible to participate in the Nov. 8 general election.
There are 577,679 Democrats, 488,861 Republicans and 304,528 nonpartisans. The rest are minor- party registered voters.
Democrats represent 39.4 percent of the total active registered voters, Republicans 33.4 percent and nonpartisans 20.8 percent.
The numbers were released one day before early voting for the general election begins in Nevada.
The total number of active registered voters is up by 251,626, an increase of 21 percent, compared to the 2014 general election close-of-registration figures.
In the last presidential election in 2012, there were 1,257,621 active registered voters, with 526,986 Democrats and 436,799 Republicans. President Barack Obama won Nevada in 2012.
Active Democratic voters in 2012 were 41.9 percent compared to 39.4 percent this year Republicans accounted for 34.7 percent in 2012 and 33.4 percent in 2016. The biggest gain over the four years was in nonpartisan voters, from 17.4 percent in 2012 to 20.8 percent this year.
Democrats have voter registration edges in three of Nevadas four congressional districts,
Party affiliation by state Switch to:State by political party
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The Battle For Senate Control
Democrats currently hold control of the Senate with the slimmest possible of majorities. The legislative chamber is actually evenly split, with 50 Republicans and 50 members of the Democratic caucus. But Vice President Kamala Harris, as president of the Senate, can cast tie-breaking votes. As a result, Democrats cannot lose even one seat without simultaneously gaining another in the upcoming midterm, or control of the chamber will shift back to the GOP.
While polling and forecasts currently show Democrats favored to keep control of the Senate, historic precedent is against the liberal party. In June 2021, the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics released an analysis of midterm elections going back to 1946. The analysis showed that the party of the president has on average lost more than three seats in the Senate during the midterms. The biggest loss has been 13 seats, while the largest gain has been just four seats.
Filed Candidates By Political Party
As of September 7, 2020, 519 candidates were filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for U.S. Senate in 2020. Of those, 402Ã¢199 Democrats and 203 RepublicansÃ¢were from one of the two major political parties. In 2018, 527 candidates filed with the FEC to run for U.S. Senate, including 137 Democrats and 240 Republicans.
The following chart shows the number of filed candidates by political party.
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Younger Voters And Turnout: A Problem For Democrats
Younger voters are the most supportive of Democrats and the least likely to turn out.
While 2018 set a record for youth turnout in midterm elections, 2022 so far looks to be a return to normal, lower patterns. Just a third of registered voters under 30 feel very enthusiastic about voting this year, lower than their older counterparts. And they constitute the least likely age group to say they’ll definitely vote this year. Add to that a modest Republican turnout advantage even among older voters and it becomes clear why Democrats are trailing.
Th United States Congress
|1st: January 6, 2015 December 18, 20152nd: January 4, 2016 January 3, 2017|
The 114th United States Congress was a meeting of the legislative branch of the United States of America federal government, composed of the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives. It met in Washington, D.C. from January 3, 2015, to January 3, 2017, during the final two years of Barack Obamaâs presidency. The seats in the House were based on the 2010 United States Census.
The 2014 elections gave the Republicans control of the Senate and the House for the first time since the 109th Congress. With 248 seats in the House of Representatives and 54 seats in the , this Congress began with the largest majority since the 71st Congress of 19291931. As of 2021, this is the most recent session of Congress in which Republicans and Democrats held any seats in New Hampshire and , respectively, and the last in which Republicans held a Senate seat in .
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United States Senate Elections 2016
|New HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaWest Virginia|
Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on . A total of 34 of the 100 seats were up for regular election. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections on November 8, 2016, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2017.
Control of the Senate was up for grabs again in 2016. In order to take the chamber back, Democrats needed to gain five seats in 2016, but they fell short, picking up only two seats. Ultimately, Republican senators proved to be far less vulnerable than predicted. Some reasons for the predicted vulnerability are as follows. The majority of seats up for election were held by Republican incumbents, many of whom were freshmen who were swept into office in the Tea Party wave of 2010. Additionally, the Senate election coincided with a presidential election, which has been a boon to Democratic candidates in the past decade. Democrats had made gains in the Senate in the last two presidential elections, while they had suffered losses in the years between.
Virginia Heads Into The Fall As A Barometer For Us House Control
If you are determined to stay awake until you know which political party will control the U.S. House of Representatives next year, you will be sleepless throughout the long night of Nov. 8 and possibly past dawn on Nov. 9.
Or, if you want a pretty good idea how things are going to go, just follow a pair of Virginia races in the states 2nd and 7th Congressional Districts. Those two bellwethers are likely to presage a trend for one party or the other.
If Virginia 7 flips, I think thats indicative of a pretty good night for Republicans, said Kyle Kondik, a researcher at the University of Virginia Center for Politics and managing editor of its nationally followed newsletter, Sabatos Crystal Ball.
Likewise, if Virginia 2 stays Democratic, thats the kind of world in which Democrats could still be holding the House, he said.
Both races feature incumbent Democratic women elected in the 2018 blue wave midterms who are being challenged for a third term by Republican women in brand-new districts whose electoral history and demographics make them prime political barometers.
Rep. Abigail Spanberger .
The respectedCook Political Report rates the 7th District race between Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican nominee Yesli Vega and the 2nd District contest pitting Rep. Elaine Luria against Jennifer Kiggans, a Republican state senator from Virginia Beach, as toss-up races two of 33 nationwide that, by Cooks reckoning, could break either way.
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Is It Realistic To Think That Schumer And Mcconnell Will End Up Striking An Agreement As Lott And Daschle Did
It will be tougher, given the increasing polarization of politics generally and the Senate specifically.
The Lott-Daschle agreement may be difficult to replicate, Smith said. Lott struggled to get his majority party to agree to the terms he negotiated after the 2000 elections. With so many uncompromising members of his party conference, McConnell will find it even more difficult.
Stewart Verdery, who worked for then-Sen. Don Nickles, R-Okla. said that he expects McConnell to argue that the 2001 precedent is fair and appropriate.
At the moment, I give them only a 60 percent chance of agreeing to a bipartisan power-sharing plan, Smith said.
An early sign of how things are going will be how quickly the parties agree on the power sharing agreement and how much the Republicans get from the agreement, Ryan said. Will it reflect what happened , or will the Democrats push it a little farther?
United States Senate Elections 2022
|U.S. Senate Elections by State|
|U.S. House Elections|
Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on , and 34 of the 100 seats are up for regular election. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections in 2022 will begin their six-year terms on January 3, 2023.
Two special elections are also scheduled for November 8, 2022. One special election will be held to fill the final four years of Sen. Jim Inhofe‘s six-year term that began in 2021. Inhofe announced his resignation effective January 3, 2023. The other special election will be held to fill the final weeks of the six-year term that Kamala Harris was elected to in 2016. That U.S. Senate seat is also up for regular election in 2022, for a total of 35 individual seats up.
Fourteen seats held by Democrats and 21 seats held by Republicans are up for election in 2022. Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump won in 2020.
Following the 2020 Senate elections and the January 2021 runoffs in Georgia, Democrats and Republicans split the chamber 50-50. This gave Vice President Kamala Harris a tie-breaking vote, and Democrats control of the U.S. Senate via a power-sharing agreement.
On this page, you will find information on the following:
As of June 2022, election forecasters viewed this race as a Toss-up.
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A Different America: How Republicans Hold Near Total Control In 23 Us States
In those states, Republicans hold the governorship and the legislature, giving them the power to take aim at abortion access, trans rights, voting and gun safety
Democrats across the US cheered last month, as Texas legislators staged a walkout from the statehouse to block the passage of a Republican bill that would enact a number of restrictions on voting access.
But the victory seemed short-lived, as the states Republican governor, Greg Abbott, quickly announced he planned to call a special session to get the legislation passed.
The walkout and the probably only temporary relief it provides for Democrats demonstrated the immense legislative power that have in dozens of states across the country and the ability that gives them to pass a hard-right agenda on a vast range of issues from abortion to the ability to vote.
In 23 US states, Republicans hold the governorship and the legislature, giving the party near total control to advance its policies. This year, Republicans have used that power to aggressively push their conservative social agenda taking aim at abortion access, transgender rights and gun safety, as well as voting laws.
During the legislative session, which concluded late last month, Republicans approved bills to allow permitless carry of firearms, ban abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy and increase criminal penalties for protesters who block intersections.
Senator John Barrasso Republican Of Wyoming
Recently re-elected as chairman of GOP policy committee
Barrasso, a medical doctor who graduated from Georgetown and Yale, runs the committee in charge of summarizing and analyzing major GOP legislation. Last week he called the recently announced US-China deal irresponsible and expensive.
To me, this is an agreement thats terrible for the United States and terrific for the Chinese government and for the politicians there, because it allows China to continue to raise their emissions over the next 16 years, Barrasso said.
All of us want to make energy as clean as we can as fast as we can, he said. We want to do it in ways that dont raise the energy costs for American families and impact their jobs, income, ability to provide for their families. Those are the issues we need to be focusing on.
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