Results Summary And Analysis
The Democratic Party won control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. The Democrats gained a net total of 41 seats from the total number of seats they had won in the 2016 elections. This was their largest gain of House seats in an election since the 1974 elections, when the Democrats gained 49 House seats. Democrats won the popular vote by more than 9.7 million votes or 8.6%, the largest midterm margin for any party and the largest margin on record for a minority party.
Voter turnout in this election was 50.3%, the highest turnout in a U.S. midterm election since 1914.
Note that the results summary does not include blank and over/under votes which were included in the official results or votes cast in the voided election in North Carolinas 9th congressional district.
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In Greenwich Ryan Fazio Reclaims 36th Senate District For Gop
Ryan Fazio listens to two Republican voters in New Canaan opposed to COVID vaccine mandates.
GREENWICH Republican Ryan Fazio was elected Tuesday to the state Senate from the 36th District, reclaiming for the GOP what had been a reliably safe seat in Fairfield County until the election of Donald J. Trump in 2016.
Buoyed by solid turnout in Republican precincts and the benefits of having run for the seat just nine months ago, Fazio won a three-way special election forced by the resignation of Alex Kasser, the Democrat who unseated a Republican in 2018 and was re-elected last year. The district covers Greenwich and portions of Stamford and New Canaan.
The Democratic nominee was Alexis Gevanter, a first-time candidate and gun-control advocate who had to contend with Fazio and John Blankley, a Democrat who ran as a petitioning candidate after failing to win the party endorsement. Gevanter conceded less than two hours after the polls closed.
Unofficial results showed Fazio with 50.1 % Gevanter, 47.6% and Blankley, 2.3%. Turnout was 26.7% percent.
Fazios victory does little to change the balance of power in Hartford or the 36th Districts status as a battleground in Fairfield County, but it gives a demoralized Connecticut Republican Party a needed boost and hope that the wealthiest corner of the state is not permanently lost to the GOP while it becomes stronger in blue-collar Democratic areas.
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Republicans Seek End To Secretary Of State Appointment
A new measure making its way through the Legislature would require Michigan Secretary of State branches to open for walk-ins.
The Republican proposal comes in response to Secretary of State Jocelyn Bensons decision to shift to an appointment-only system to modernize the agency and end pandemic-related transaction backlogs.
If you want to use the appointment system that works, you still have that option, House Oversight Committee Chair Steve Johnson, R-Wayland, said Thursday during a hearing.
But for some people that dont work, they need that walk-in option.
The House measures would require the Secretary of States branches to provide a minimum of eight hours in-person without the need of an appointment.
It will also waive late fees on registrations until walk-ins are reinstalled and would extend the grace period for expired driver licenses, enhanced licenses, state IDs, permits and certifications to September. The proposals will apply retroactively from April 1.
Adam Reames, the legislative policy director at the Secretary of State, told lawmakers the agency supports waiving late fees and a staggered extension of grace periods.
But the appointment-only system is the best operational model and should remain, Reames said.
Republicans Can Win The Next Elections Through Gerrymandering Alone
Even if voting patterns remain the same, Republicans could still win more seats in Congress through redistricting
In Washington, the real insiders know that the true outrages are whats perfectly legal and that its simply a gaffe when someone accidentally blurts out something honest.
And so it barely made a ripple last week when a Texas congressman said aloud whats supposed to be kept to a backroom whisper: Republicans intend to retake the US House of Representatives in 2022 through gerrymandering.
We have redistricting coming up and the Republicans control most of that process in most of the states around the country, Representative Ronny Jackson told a conference of religious conservatives. That alone should get us the majority back.
Hes right. Republicans wont have to win more votes next year to claim the US House.
In fact, everyone could vote the exact same way for Congress next year as they did in 2020 when Democratic candidates nationwide won more than 4.7m votes than Republicans and narrowly held the chamber but under the new maps that will be in place, the Republican party would take control.
Its one of the many time bombs that threatens representative democracy and American traditions of majority rule. Its a sign of how much power they have and how aggressively they intend to wield it that Republicans arent even bothering to deny that they intend to implode it.
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Cbs News Projects Mark Kelly Will Win Senate Race In Arizona
CBS News is projecting that Democrat the Senate race in Arizona, defeating incumbent Republican Senator Martha McSally. This is the second Republican-held seat that Democratic candidates have flipped this year, with Democrat John Hickenlooper also defeating GOP Senator Cory Gardner in Georgia.
As of midday Friday, Kelly was leading McSally by 3 percentage points with 91% of votes counted. Kelly, a former astronaut, is the husband of gun control activist Gabby Giffords, who was shot while serving as a congresswoman in 2011.
This leaves Democrats and Republicans deadlocked with 48 Senate seats each. The Senate race in North Carolina between incumbent GOP Senator Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham is still too close to call. The two Senate races in Georgia are both likely to advance to runoff elections, meaning that the final partisan balance of the Senate may not be known until January.
How Did 2016 Voters And Nonvoters Compare
The data also provide a profile of voting-eligible nonvoters. Four-in-ten Americans who were eligible to vote did not do so in 2016. There are striking demographic differences between voters and nonvoters, and significant political differences as well. Compared with validated voters, nonvoters were more likely to be younger, less educated, less affluent and nonwhite. And nonvoters were much more Democratic.
Among members of the panel who were categorized as nonvoters, 37% expressed a preference for Hillary Clinton, 30% for Donald Trump and 9% for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein 14% preferred another candidate or declined to express a preference. Party affiliation among nonvoters skewed even more Democratic than did candidate preferences. Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents made up a 55% majority of nonvoters about four-in-ten nonvoters were Republicans and Republican leaners. Voters were split almost evenly between Democrats and Democratic leaners and Republicans and Republican leaners .
Voters were much more highly educated than nonvoters. Just 16% of nonvoters were college graduates, compared with 37% of voters. Adults with only a high school education constituted half of nonvoters, compared with 30% among voters. Whites without a college degree made up 43% of nonvoters, about the same as among voters . But nonwhites without a college degree were far more numerous among nonvoters than they were among voters .
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The House Democrat in charge of making sure the party retains control of the chamber after next years midterm elections is warning that a course correction is needed or they could find themselves the minority again with current polling showing the Democrats would lose the majority if elections were held now.
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told a closed-door lunch last week that if the midterms were held now, Republicans would win control of the House, Politico reported Tuesday.
Maloney advised the gathering that Democrats have to embrace and promote President Bidens agenda because it registers with swing voters.
We are not afraid of this data Were not trying to hide this, Tim Persico, executive director of the Maloney-chaired DCC, ?told Politico in an interview.
If use it, were going to hold the House. Thats what this data tells us, but we gotta get in action, ?Persico said.
M?aloney, in an interview with NPR, said ?issues like climate change, infrastructure, the expanded child tax credits, immigration policies and election reforms will attract voters next fall.
Were making a bet on substance, Maloney said. Whats the old saying any jackass can kick down a barn, it takes a carpenter to build one. Its harder to build it than to kick it down. And so were the party thats going to build the future.
M?aloneys dire warning failed to surprise some Democrats who have been sounding similar alarms. ?
Who Became The 19th President Of The United States
As the 19th President of the United States , Rutherford B. Hayes oversaw the end of Reconstruction, began the efforts that led to civil service reform, and attempted to reconcile the divisions left over from the Civil War. Beneficiary of the most fiercely disputed election in American history, Rutherford B.
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The Virginia Shooting Fallout Was Predictably Partisan Can This Ever Be Fixed
Some see in the gulf between Democrats and Republicans a parallel to discourse prior to the civil war, while others hope Americans will tire of the anger
It would be hard to imagine an institution more out of tune with the prevailing tone of modern American politics than the annual congressional baseball game. The Republican and Democratic teams play each other to win, but they do so in a spirit of friendship across the aisle that is all but nonexistent on Capitol Hill these days.
Even the running score between them entering the week of the contest was thoroughly bipartisan: 79 encounters since 1909, 39 wins each .
So the Republicans practice ground in Alexandria, Virginia, on the day before this years engagement made for an especially jarring choice of target when a lone gunman opened fire at 7.09am on Wednesday, critically injuring the House majority whip Steve Scalise and wounding three others. It was as if one of the last oases of civility in American public life had been torn by an outburst of violent hatred.
Partisan violence, at that. When details emerged of the shooter, himself killed in the exchange of fire, it turned out that James T Hodgkinson was a self-styled democratic socialist with a track record of assailing Donald Trump on social media. One of his Facebook entries called Trump a traitor and said: Its Time to Destroy Trump & Co.
Gop Admins Had 38 Times More Criminal Convictions Than Democrats 1961
Democrats top row: President Obama, Clinton, Carter, Johnson, Kennedy. Republicans bottom row: President W. Bush, Bush, Reagan, Ford, Nixon.
This is the first in a five-part series on government corruption and how that corruption is investigated.
Republican administrations have vastly more corruption than Democratic administrations. We provide new research on the numbers to make the case.
We compared 28 years each of Democratic and Republican administrations, 1961-2016, five Presidents from each party. During that period Republicans scored eighteen times more individuals and entities indicted, thirty-eight times more convictions, and thirty-nine times more individuals who had prison time.
Given the at least 17 active investigations plaguing President Trump, he is on a path to exceed previous administrations, though the effects of White House obstruction, potential pardons, and the as-yet unknown impact of the GOPs selection of judges may limit investigations, subpoenas, prosecutions, etc. Of course, as we are comparing equal numbers of Presidents and years in office from the Democratic and Republican parties, the current President is not included.
Were aware some of our numbers differ from other totals, but we explain our criteria below.
Figure 1. Presidential administrations corruption comparison
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How Many Democrats How Many Republicans
I want to follow up on my last post regarding how variations in poll results are often due to differences in how pollsters construct their samples. The previous post talked primarily about whether pollsters were sampling likely or registered voters. Obama, I suggested, polled better among registered voters. Today I want to look at another decision pollsters must make: whether to weight their sample by party identification and, if so, what weights to use. We know that whether one considers oneself a Democrat or a Republican is the biggest single determinant of how someone will vote. Not surprisingly, people tend to vote for the candidate who shares their party identification. So a poll that includes 40% Democrats in its sample is likely to have more favorable results for Obama than one that includes 35% Democrats, all other things being equal. Ditto for McCain and variations in the number of Republicans sampled.
To see how this makes a difference, consider two respected national polls that came out yesterday. CBS/NY Times came out with their monthly national poll that has Obama up 49-44, with 6 undecided.
Rasmussen, meanwhile, has the race tied, 48-48% in its latest tracking poll.
I show you these numbers to give you an idea of what it means to weight by party. But why does it matter? Compare the CBS weighting to what Rasmussen calculates when they weight by party.
Incoming Biden Administration And Democratic House Wont Have To Deal With A Republican
Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff wave to supporters during a joint rally on Nov. 15 in Marietta, Ga.
Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have defeated Georgias two incumbent Republican U.S. senators in the states runoff elections, the Associated Press said Wednesday, in a development that gives their party effective control of the Senate.
Ossoff and Warnock were projected the winners over Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by the AP following campaigns that drew massive spending and worldwide attention because the runoffs were set to determine the balance of power in Washington. The AP , at about 2 a.m. Eastern, then followed with the call for Ossoff over Perdue on Wednesday afternoon.
President-elect Joe Bidens incoming administration and the Democratic-run House of Representatives now wont face the same checks on their policy priorities that they would have faced with a Republican-controlled Senate, though analysts have said the slim Democratic majority in the chamber could mean more power for moderate senators from either party.
It is looking like the Democratic campaign machine was more effective at driving turnout than the Republican one, said Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber in a note late Tuesday.
Warnock then made just before 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.
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Republicans have been wary of the media for decades, most put off by such irritants as a pronounced liberal bias in much news coverage plus a tendency among journalists to mix news with opinion and political slant. The trend, however, has gotten worse.
In just five years, the percentage of Republicans with at least some trust in national news organizations has been cut in half dropping from 70% in 2016 to 35% this year. This decline is fueling the continued widening of the partisan gap in trust of the media, says a new Pew Research Center analysis based on a jumbo survey of over 10,000 people.
Nearly eight-in-ten Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they have a lot or some trust in the information that comes from national news organizations 43 percentage points higher than Republicans and Republican leaners , wrote analysts Jeffrey Gottfried and Jacob Liedke.
This partisan gap is the largest of any time that this question has been asked since 2016. And it grows even wider to 53 points between liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans the authors said.
The 35% of Republicans who have at least some trust in national news organizations in 2021 is half that of in 2016 and has dropped 14 points since late 2019 . By comparison, Democrats have remained far more consistent in the past five years, ranging somewhere between 78% and 86%.