Many Demographic Traits Of Likely Voters Differ Across Parties
- Independents and Democrats are more likely to be young adults than are Republicans , while Republicans are more likely to be age 55 and older than are Democrats or independents .
- Democratic likely voters are much more likely to be women than men , while independents are much more likely to be men than women Republicans are more evenly divided.
- Independents and Democrats are much more likely to be college graduates than are Republicans .
- About one in four Democrats have household incomes under $40,000, compared to about two in ten Republicans and independents .
Key Points From This Article
Party registration can be a lagging indicator of political change, but recent changes in some states are bringing registration more in line with actual voting.
Republicans have taken the voter registration edge in states such as Florida and West Virginia somewhat recently, and Kentucky flipped to them just last week. Democrats have built bigger leads in several blue states.
Democrats hold a substantial national lead in party registration, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that a number of states, many of which are Republican-leaning, do not register voters by party. A little less than two-thirds of the states register voters by party .
Overall, Republicans have made gains over Democrats in 19 states since summer 2018, when we last looked at these trends, while Democrats have made gains over Republicans in 12 states and the District of Columbia. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in 17 of these states plus DC, and more registered Republicans than Democrats in 14.
Voter Turnout In 2020 And Beyond
The new census data makes plain that the 2020 election was record-breaking in terms of the magnitude of its voter turnout. Yet there are two aspects of this turnout which need to be emphasized. One is the sharp rise in the turnout among white non-college votersa group that has strongly favored Republicans. The other is the accentuated turnout among young people and people of colorrepresenting the increasing influence of voters who heavily lean toward Democratic presidential candidates.
Both of these groups exerted countervailing forces on the results of the 2020 election, leading to close popular vote totals in a handful of states. However, the underlying demographics of the nations voter population show that Democratic-leaning voter populations are on the rise in both fast-growing and slow-growing parts of the country.
This raises the question as to whether even greater turnout among white non-college voter groupsor Republican efforts to alter voting requirements in their favorwill be enough to counter the influence of young voters and voters of color in future presidential elections.
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Our Ruling: Partly False
The claim in the post is rated PARTLY FALSE. The tweet that appears in viral Facebook posts cites correct vote totals for Trump and Biden . But it falsely reports the number of registered voters. More than 159 million registered voters cast ballots in the general election, out of 239 million eligible voters. So it is completely possible that Trump and Biden would post that many total votes.
What Do I Need To Know
- You must be registered to vote in General, Primary and Special Elections.
- You do not have to be registered to vote in school elections.
- You can pick a political party affiliation when you register.
- If you do not pick a political party, you will be registered as: No Party.
- You must register as a Democrat or Republican to vote in a primary. Democrats vote for Democrats and Republicans for Republicans.
- Changes of address with the Post Office do not update your voter registration.
- You must vote at the polling place for the address for your home on Election Day.
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Republicans Dominate The 1920s
The party controlled the presidency throughout the 1920s, running on a platform of opposition to the League of Nations, support for high tariffs, and promotion of business interests. Voters gave the GOP credit for the prosperity and Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge and Herbert Hoover were resoundingly elected by landslides in 1920, 1924 and 1928. The breakaway efforts of Senator Robert M. La Follette in 1924 failed to stop a landslide for Coolidge and his movement fell apart. The Teapot Dome Scandal threatened to hurt the party, but Harding died and Coolidge blamed everything on him as the opposition splintered in 1924.
Poll: Persistent Partisan Divide Over Birther Question
One way that Donald Trump launched onto the political stage five years ago was through his fervent claims that President Barack Obama was not a U.S. citizen. Though Obama has since produced birth certificates certifying his birth in Hawaii, recently, such rumors have been given new life by commentators and pundits on the right. But just how many continue to think the president was not born in the U.S.? And which voters hold such views?
Seventy-two percent of registered Republican voters still doubt President Obamas citizenship, according to a recent NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll conducted in late June and early July of more than 1,700 registered voters. And this skepticism even exists among Republicans high in political knowledge.
To see whether voters believe that Obama was not born in the United States, we asked them about their agreement with this statement: Barack Obama was born in the United States. The chart below shows responses broken down by party identification.
A first look reveals significant and surprising differences between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to their beliefs about Obamas birthplace.
While more than eight in 10 Democrats agreed with the claim, far more Republicans disagreed with the statement than agreed with it . An additional 31 percent of Republicans expressed some doubts about whether Obama is a native U.S. citizen . Only slightly more than one in four Republican voters agreed that the president was born in the United States.
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What Are The Qualifications
You may register to vote in Delaware if you:
- Are a citizen of the United States, AND
- Are a resident of Delaware , AND
- Will be 18 years old on or before the date of the next General Election.
You may not register to vote in Delaware if you:
- Have been adjudged mentally incompetent. Adjudged mentally incompetent refers to a specific finding in a judicial guardianship or equivalent proceeding, based on clear and convincing evidence that the individual has a severe cognitive impairment which precludes exercise of basic voting judgment OR
- Were convicted of a felony and have not completed your sentence, OR
- Were convicted of a disqualifying* felony and have not been pardoned.
*List of Disqualifying Felonies:
- Murder or manslaughter,
- Any felony constituting an offense against public administration involving bribery or improper influence or abuse of office, or any like offense under the laws of any state or local jurisdiction, or of the United States, or of the District of Columbia or
- Any felony constituting a sexual offense, or any like offense under the laws of any state or local jurisdiction or of the United States or of the District of Columbia.
Are There More Democrats Than Republicans In The United States
I have been thinking about the Democratic Party and whether or not its members are more numerous than the opposing faction.
Evidence to suggest this is the case:
- This party is expected to win the popular vote for president seven out of eight times since 1992. Please donât say âthis hasnât happened yetâ. If this bothers you, say 6 out of 7.
- The party has received 51.9 percent of the votes cast in presidential elections from 1992 to 2016 for it or its opponent, the Republican Party. This shows that 2012 was the mean election in popular vote as of 2016.
- Party registration in states that register by party says this same thing.
- Trumpâs approval has not gone above 50 percent ever as president on 538.
- A plurality of Americans consistently supported impeachment by 2 to 5 points while it was happening.
This suggests that the partisan lean the American electorate is about D+4. I believe that it might be closer to D+5 now for various reasons and the fact that 2012 was the mean result. This can get a little bit fuzzy because of independents.
If we look at opinion polling, Gallup has collated party affiliation polls back to 2004. The most recent poll at the time of writing gives a D+11 advantage. Looking just at the net Republican/Democrat advantage, ignoring Independents, we can create the graph below â with positive percentages representing a Democrat lead, and negative percentages representing a Republican lead.
To give a theoretical perspective on this:
- Ballot Access News
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Trends In Party Affiliation Among Demographic Groups
The balance of partisan affiliation and the combined measure of partisan identification and leaning has not changed substantially over the past two decades. However, Democrats hold a slightly larger edge in leaned party identification over Republicans now than in 2016 or 2015.
In Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 2017, 37% of registered voters identified as independents, 33% as Democrats and 26% as Republicans. When the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account, 50% either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic 42% identify as Republicans or lean Republican.
The 8-percentage-point Democratic advantage in leaned partisan identification is wider than at any point since 2009, and a statistically significant shift since 2016, when Democrats had a 4-point edge . The analysis in this report draws on more than 10,000 interviews with registered voters in 2017 and tens of thousands of interviews conducted in previous years .
There continue to be fundamental differences in the partisan orientation of different demographic groups, and in many cases these gaps have grown wider in recent years. For instance, gender, generational, geographic and educational divides are now as wide, or wider, than in Pew Research Center surveys going back more than two decades.
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Wide Gender Gap In Partisanship
As has been the case for more than two decades of Pew Research Center surveys, women are significantly more likely than men to associate with the Democratic Party. While the gender gap has changed little in recent years, it is as wide as it has been at any point during this period: Among registered voters, 56% of women affiliate with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with 44% of men.
From 2010 through 2015, about half of women identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party. But the share of women who identify with or lean to the Democratic Party has risen in recent years, to 54% in 2016 and 56% in 2017. The partisan breakdown of men is relatively unchanged over this period.
The Democratic gains among women have not come from increased affiliation with the party. Overall, the proportion of women voters who identify with the Democratic Party has remained relatively constant for the past 25 years .
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Minor Parties In Gubernatorial Races 1857
The following table includes state-by-state information on when a minor partys candidate for governor won at least 5 percent of the vote between 1857 and 2012. In four states , a minor party candidate for governor had not won 5 percent or more of the vote since the 19th century. A total of 17 states saw minor party candidates win at least 5 percent of the vote for governor between 1982 and 2012. The information was compiled by Richard Winger of Ballot Access News.
|When did a minor party last poll 5% for governor?|
Chart 1 And Table : Nationwide Party Registration Trends Since 2000
|Since 2000, the nationwide proportion of registered Democratic and Republican voters in party registration states have both gone down, while the percentage of registered independents has steadily grown. The latter has nearly reached the nationwide percentage of registered Republicans, which has long been second nationally to the Democrats. Altogether, the combined number of registered Democrats and Republicans, which was 77% in October 2000, is now down to 69%, while the proportion of registered independents over the same period has increased from 22% to 28%.|
Note: Based on active registered voters in states where the number of active and inactive registrants is listed. In the election-eve 2000, 2008, and 2016 entries, Independents include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who do not fit into a particular category. Percentages do not add to 100 since the small percentage of registered third party voters is not included.
Richard Wingers monthly newsletter, Ballot Access News, for election-eve party registration numbers in 2000, 2008, and 2016 the websites of state election offices for July 2018.
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Regional State And Local Politics
The Republicans welcomed the Progressive Era at the state and local level. The first important reform mayor was Hazen S. Pingree of Detroit , who was elected Governor of Michigan in 1896. In New York City, the Republicans joined nonpartisan reformers to battle Tammany Hall and elected Seth Low . Golden Rule Jones was first elected mayor of Toledo as a Republican in 1897, but was reelected as an independent when his party refused to renominate him. Many Republican civic leaders, following the example of Mark Hanna, were active in the National Civic Federation, which promoted urban reforms and sought to avoid wasteful strikes. North Carolina journalist William Garrott Brown tried to convince upscale white southerners of the wisdom of a strong early white Republican Party. He warned that a one party solid South system would negate democracy, encourage corruption, because the lack of prestige of the national level. Roosevelt was following his advice. However, in 1912, incumbent president Taft needed black Republican support in the South to defeat Roosevelt at the 1912 Republican national convention. Brown’s campaign came to nothing, and he finally supported Woodrow Wilson in 1912.
Gop Slightly Edges Democrats On Party Switchers Study Suggests
A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Partys gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.
More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by the Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns in the period since Joe Biden succeeded Donald Trump as president.
Nowhere is the shift more pronounced and dangerous for Democrats than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trumps Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties in areas such as Denver, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pa. Raleigh, N.C. Augusta, Ga. and Des Moines.
Ben Smith, who lives in suburban Larimer County, Colo., north of Denver, said he reluctantly registered as a Republican earlier in the year after becoming increasingly concerned about the Democrats support in some places for mandatory COVID-19 vaccinations, the partys inability to quell violent crime and its frequent focus on racial justice.
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Likely Voters Are Disproportionately White Democratic Likely Voters Are More Diverse
- Whites make up only 40% of Californias adult population but comprise 55% of likely voters. In contrast, Latinos make up 35% of the states adult population but only 22% of likely voters. The shares of Asian American and African American likely voters are roughly proportionate to their shares of the states adult population16% for Asian Americans and 6% for African Americans.
- Just under half of Democratic likely voters are white 28% are Latino, 13% are Asian American, and 8% are African American.
- An overwhelming majority of Republican likely voters are white relatively few are Latino , Asian American , or African American .
- Among independents, 51% are white, 20% are Latino, 19% are Asian American, and 5% are African American.
Can I Register To Vote If I Don’t Have A Fixed Address
- Yes. If you don’t have a fixed residence or are homeless and otherwise qualified to vote in Delaware, you may register by completing the proper registration form. If registering in-person you must provide two pieces of identification containing your name. Additionally, one of the pieces must include the address that you listed on the application. The address can be a shelter, agency or another location where you receive your mail.
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World War Ii And Its Aftermath: 19391952
From 1939 through 1941, there was a sharp debate within the GOP about support for the United Kingdom as it led the fight against a much stronger Nazi Germany. Internationalists, such as Henry Stimson and Frank Knox, wanted to support Britain and isolationists, such as Robert A. Taft and Arthur Vandenberg, strongly opposed these moves as unwise for risking a war with Germany. The America First movement was a bipartisan coalition of isolationists. In 1940, a dark horse Wendell Willkie at the last minute won over the party, the delegates and was nominated. He crusaded against the inefficiencies of the New Deal and Roosevelt’s break with the strong tradition against a third term, but was ambiguous on foreign policy.
The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941 ended the isolationist-internationalist debate, as all factions strongly supported the war effort against Japan and Germany. The Republicans further cut the Democratic majority in the 1942 midterm elections in a very low turnout episode. With wartime production creating prosperity, the conservative coalition terminated nearly all New Deal relief programs ” rel=”nofollow”> Social Security) as unnecessary.
In 1944, a clearly frail Roosevelt defeated Dewey for his fourth consecutive term, but Dewey made a good showing that would lead to his selection as the candidate in 1948.