Map : Change In Republican Margin By County Or County
Note: Alaskas results are displayed by state senate districts. Click to enlarge.
Election data from Dave Leips Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections and Daily Kos Elections for Alaskas state senate districts map shape files from the U.S. Census Bureau.
We looked at three sources to try to gauge the raw number of voters who backed Obama in 2012 but then voted for Trump in 2016. Unfortunately, the 2016 exit poll did not ask respondents about their 2012 vote, having last done so in 2008. While exit polls are imperfect, it at least would have served as another data point.
At present, two regular national election studies have released 2016 data: the American National Election Study and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. Both asked respondents about their 2016 vote but also inquired whether or not they voted in 2012 and for whom they voted. In addition to these studies, the University of Virginia Center for Politics recently partnered with Public Opinion Strategies to survey the attitudes of Trump voters, and as a part of that poll, respondents were asked about their prior voting history. Together, these three surveys allow us to roughly estimate the number of Obama 2012-Trump 2016 voters.
These considerations mean that the estimates below should be treated with caution. They are our best data-informed guesses.
Electoral Laws And Policies Shaped Youth Voter Turnout
Each state has its own election laws and methods of administering elections that can affect voter participation, and the ease of registering and casting a ballot may have taken on even greater importance in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These policies may especially affect youth turnout many young voters are new voters who need to register for the first time and who may be unfamiliar with the process. Young people also tend to move more frequently, which may mean they have to reregister and potentially learn an entirely new set of deadlines and procedures.
Understanding the effect of electoral policies on youth turnout is especially relevant at a time when the U.S. Congress is considering HR1: For the People Act of 2021. This bill would standardize some election laws across the country and nationally establish: automatic voter registration , online voter registration , same-day or Election-Day registration , early voting, no-excuse absentee voting, pre-registration, and requirements for voter registration programming in high schools. No state currently has all of these provisions in place. But by looking at youth voter turnout in states that already had a majority of these policies in place in 2020, we can examine whether they are associated with higher participation and the potential for HR1 to expand the youth electorate.
Election Day: How Many People Voted In 2016
- 12:44 ET, Oct 26 2020
DONALD Trump scored a stunning victory over Hillary Clinton during the 2016 presidential election.
Clinton was favored to win the election and become the 45th President, according to pollsters and other experts.
Follow ourUS election 2020 live blog for the latest news & updates
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Gsa Delays Certifying Biden As President
Although all major media outlets called the election for Biden on November 7, the head of the General Services Administration , Trump appointee Emily W. Murphy, refused for over two weeks to certify Biden as the president-elect. Without formal GSA certification or “ascertainment” of the winner of the election, the official transition process was delayed. On November 23, Murphy acknowledged Biden as the winner and said the Trump administration would begin the formal transition process. Trump said he had instructed his administration to “do what needs to be done” but did not concede, and indicated he intended to continue his fight to overturn the election results.
How Did 2016 Voters And Nonvoters Compare
The data also provide a profile of voting-eligible nonvoters. Four-in-ten Americans who were eligible to vote did not do so in 2016. There are striking demographic differences between voters and nonvoters, and significant political differences as well. Compared with validated voters, nonvoters were more likely to be younger, less educated, less affluent and nonwhite. And nonvoters were much more Democratic.
Among members of the panel who were categorized as nonvoters, 37% expressed a preference for Hillary Clinton, 30% for Donald Trump and 9% for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein 14% preferred another candidate or declined to express a preference. Party affiliation among nonvoters skewed even more Democratic than did candidate preferences. Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents made up a 55% majority of nonvoters about four-in-ten nonvoters were Republicans and Republican leaners. Voters were split almost evenly between Democrats and Democratic leaners and Republicans and Republican leaners .
Voters were much more highly educated than nonvoters. Just 16% of nonvoters were college graduates, compared with 37% of voters. Adults with only a high school education constituted half of nonvoters, compared with 30% among voters. Whites without a college degree made up 43% of nonvoters, about the same as among voters . But nonwhites without a college degree were far more numerous among nonvoters than they were among voters .
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Here’s A Breakdown Of How African
Donald Trump was elected president, despite almost every poll predicting a slamdunk win for his Democratic competitor Hillary Clinton. While there are many reasons behind Trump’s sudden upswell of support, many have pointed to Hillary’s failure to draw in as many African-American and non-white voters as President Obama did in 2008 and 2012.
So how did African-Americans vote in the 2016 election? Despite President Obama telling black voters that he would take it as a “personal insult” if they didn’t cast their ballot for Hillary Clinton, 2016 black voters didn’t coalesce behind Clinton the same way they did Obama, with Clinton earning 88% of their vote as compared to Obama’s 93% in 2012. That being said, the overwhelming majority of African-Americans did show their support by voting for Clinton, particularly as compared to white Americans, who ultimately won Trump the election by giving him 58% of the white vote.
Here’s the complete breakdown of how African-Americans voted in the 2016 Presidential Election, based on exit polls:
His Lack Of Statesmanship Have Also Turned Former Trump Voters Against Him And Towards Joe Biden
@realDonaldTrump Mr Trump I voted for you. Your lack of leadership, lack of statesmanship and your childlike mental https://t.co/6SoPU90jjJ
KJH 1595634963
@realDonaldTrump @VP Mr. President, your credibility is shot, your true character has been revealed. I voted for yo https://t.co/vxVf3GHXEy Terry Aslin 1593654881
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As Voters’ Education Levels Increase They’re More Likely To Vote For Clinton Or Biden Instead Of Trump
Trump gained around three percentage points of support among voters who have never attended college, a demographic with which Biden failed to make gains in 2020.
But Biden performed remarkably better than Trump in 2020 among voters with an advanced degree. The Democratic nominee received an estimated 62% of the vote from post-graduate degree holders, a full 25 percentage points higher than Trump with 37%.
Hillary Clinton Officially Wins Popular Vote By Nearly 29 Million
Hillary Clinton has officially won the popular vote.
& #151 — The now officially-certified votes from the 2016 presidential race show that Hillary Clinton surpassed Donald Trump in the national popular vote by nearly 2.9 million votes.
According to vote tallies from The Associated Press, Clinton amassed 65,844,610 votes across all 50 states and Washington D.C., 48.2 percent of all votes cast. Trump received 62,979,636 votes, 46.1 percent of all votes cast.
The Associated Press announced today that all votes had officially been certified.
Clinton had 2,864,974 votes more than Trump, the largest popular vote margin of any losing presidential candidate in U.S. history, according to the AP.
Trump won the presidency by clinching 304 electoral votes, well over the minimum 270 needed. Clinton won 227 electoral votes.
Clinton is the fifth presidential candidate in history to win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College.
The only other time this has happened this century was in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore came up short in the Electoral College but won the popular vote by 540,000 more votes than George W. Bush, the AP reported.
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Black Women Overwhelmingly Voted For The Democratic Nominee In Both Elections As Did Other Voters Of Color But Trump Captured The Majority Of Both White Women And White Men
Following a Trump presidency that saw an increase in anti-immigration rhetoric and policy, experts paid close attention to Biden’s performance among Hispanic voters, which he appeared to be lacking in the final months leading up to the election.
While Clinton received votes from an estimated 63% of male Latino voters, Biden actually lost ground and won only 59% in 2020, which all but eliminated his chance of flipping the major battleground states of Florida and Texas. Trump also gained an additional percentage point of support from male Latino voters in 2020, further cementing his gains among the demographic.
Notable Expressions Phrases And Statements
- “Basket of deplorables“: A controversial phrase coined by Hillary Clinton to describe half of those who support Trump.
- “I’m with her”: Clinton’s unofficial campaign slogan .
- “What, like with a cloth or something?”: Said by Hillary Clinton in response to being asked whether she “wiped” her emails during an August 2015 press conference.
- “Why aren’t I 50 points ahead?”: Question asked by Hillary Clinton during a video address to the Laborers’ International Union of North America on September 21, 2016, which was then turned into an opposition ad by the Trump campaign.
- “When they go low, we go high”: Said by then-first lady Michelle Obama during her Democratic conventionspeech. This was later inverted by Eric Holder.
- “Feel the Bern”: A phrase chanted by supporters of the Bernie Sanderscampaign which was officially adopted by his campaign.
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Involvement Of Other Countries
On December 9, 2016, the Central Intelligence Agency issued an assessment to lawmakers in the US Senate, stating that a Russian entity hacked the DNC and John Podesta‘s emails to assist Donald Trump. The Federal Bureau of Investigation agreed. President Barack Obama ordered a “full review” into such possible intervention. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper in early January 2017 testified before a Senate committee that Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign went beyond hacking, and included disinformation and the dissemination of fake news, often promoted on social media. Facebook revealed that during the 2016 United States presidential election, a Russian company funded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman with ties to Vladimir Putin, had purchased advertisements on the website for US$100,000, 25% of which were geographically targeted to the U.S.
President-elect Trump originally called the report fabricated. said the Russian government was not the source of the documents. Days later, Trump said he could be convinced of the Russian hacking “if there is a unified presentation of evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies.”
Of Course We Won’t Really Know How Powerful Trump’s Detractors Are Until 3rd November
Twitter is a notoriously bad political barometer, no matter how many thousands of people appear to have turned against the president.
Hey @GOP. How many people do you think will NEVER EVER AGAIN VOTE FOR ANY REPUBLICAN FOR ANY OFFICE after yesterday https://t.co/Go07ZmM00V Clark 1591129900
But current polls put Joe Biden nine points ahead of Trump, with key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all appearing to support the Democrats for now.
The race is still far from over, but Trump might have to try a bit harder than mindlessly repeating “we’re gonna build a wall” this election cycle now that his opponents have four years of embarrassing mistakes and gaffes to draw on.
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Early Voting Hits 50% Of Total Us Ballots Cast In 2016
- More than 69 million Americans have voted in the 2020 presidential election with one week until Election Day, according to the U.S. Elections Project.
- Key states Texas and Florida have seen record high voter turnout so far.
- Young voters, who tend to vote in person and later in the election season, will be a group to watch as Nov. 3 approaches.
More than 69 million Americans have voted in the 2020 presidential election with one week to go until Election Day, according to U.S. Elections Project data released Tuesday afternoon.
A record number of voters have already cast their ballots in the race between Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden as the coronavirus pandemic has created an unprecedented demand for mail-in and in-person early voting.
Early voting in 2020 has now surpassed the 58 million mail-in or in-person early votes cast in 2016, based on Associated Press totals, and reached over 50% of the more than 136 million total ballots cast in the 2016 presidential election.
That’s good news, according to U.S. Elections Project director and University of Florida professor Michael McDonald.
“There were many concerns about election officials’ ability to conduct an election during a pandemic. Not only are people voting, but they are voting over a longer period of time, thereby spreading out the workload of election officials,” McDonald wrote on the project’s website.
Youth Vote Choice & Differences By Race
Our pre-election poll of Millennials ages 18-34 had Clinton 49% vs. Trump 28%, a 21-point preference for the Democratic candidate. The National Exit Poll suggests that the actual split in the election was 55% for Clinton to 37% for Trump among youth aged 18-29.
The 37% youth support for the Republican candidate in 2016 equals the support garnered by Mitt Romney in 2012. However, youth support for the Democratic candidate dropped: it was 60% for President Obamas reelection in 2012, and 55% for Clinton this year. Notably, while in the last presidential election 97% of young voters chose one of the two major party candidates, this year only 92% did so, as nearly 1 in 10 youth selected a third-party option or otherwise eschewed voting for Clinton or Trump.
The percentage of youth supporting the Democratic candidate was lower than in both of President Obamas elections, and closer to the level achieved by Bill Clinton in his successful 1996 campaign. Its the third highest share of the youth vote for Democrats since 1972. Meanwhile, the 37% support from young voters was the fourth-lowest for a Republican candidate since 1972.
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Certification Of Electoral College Votes
The 117th United States Congress first convened on January 3, 2021, and was scheduled to count and certify the Electoral College votes on January 6, 2021. There were 222 Democrats and 212 Republicans in the House there were 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and two independents in the Senate. Several Republican members of the House and Senate said they would raise objections to the reported count in several states, meeting the requirement that if a member from each body objects, the two houses must meet separately to discuss whether to accept the certified state vote. A statement from the vice president’s office said Pence welcomes the plan by Republicans to “raise objections and bring forward evidence” challenging the election results.
On December 28, 2020, Representative Louie Gohmert filed a lawsuit in Texas challenging the constitutionality of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, claiming Vice President Pence has the power and ability to unilaterally decide which slates of electoral votes get counted. The case was dismissed on January 1, 2021, for lack of both standing and jurisdiction. The plaintiffs filed an appeal, and the appeal was dismissed by a three-judge panel of the appeals court the next day.
Religious Affiliation And Attendance
As in previous elections, voters in 2016 were sharply divided along religious lines. Protestants constituted about half of the electorate and reported voting for Trump over Clinton by a 56% to 39% margin. Catholics were more evenly divided 52% reported voting for Trump, while 44% said they backed Clinton. Conversely, a solid majority of the religiously unaffiliated atheists, agnostics and those who said their religion was nothing in particular said they voted for Clinton over Trump .
Within the Protestant tradition, voters were divided by race and evangelicalism. White evangelical Protestants, who constituted one out of every five voters, consistently have been among the strongest supporters of Republican candidates and supported Trump by a 77% to 16% margin.
This is nearly identical to the 78% to 16% advantage that Mitt Romney held over Barack Obama among white evangelicals in Pew Research Center polling on the eve of the 2012 presidential election.
Among white mainline Protestants 57% said they voted for Trump and 37% reported voting for Clinton. Clinton won overwhelmingly among black Protestants .
White non-Hispanic Catholics supported Trump by a ratio of about two-to-one , while Hispanic Catholics favored Clinton by an even larger 78% to 19% margin.
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Turnout Of Newly Eligible Voters Stronger But Still Lagging
We also estimate that voter turnout among young people ages 18-19 was 46%. This age group deserves special attention because they are the newest eligible voters, so their electoral participation, or lack thereof can provide a window into how welland how equitablywe are preparing and priming youth to participate in democracy. Additionally, voting is a habit that, when formed and practiced early, is likeliest to persist later in life. But, by the same token, when preparation for voting is inequitable early in life, those inequities can also persist.
Historically, youth ages 18-19 have voted at lower rates than their slightly older peers, and that was once again the case in 2020. However, some states managed to close the gap in California and Washington, remarkably, voter turnout was actually higher among youth ages 18-19. But in still other states the difference was stark: in South Dakota, where 32% of young people under 30 voted, just 12% of 18- and 19-year-olds cast a ballot. As we mark the 50-year anniversary of the 26th amendment that lowered the voting age to 18, these voter turnout differences by age are a reminder that challenges to achieving equitable participation remain. They also point to the importance of a Growing Voters framework that focuses on how the education system, election administrators, and other stakeholders can ensure that we start preparing young people to vote long before they turn 18.
