Next Speaker Of The House
This one seems like it should be fairly straightforward, but its not. Kevin McCarthy is the GOP House Leader, and if the GOP wins the House, he would become Speaker, right? Not so fast.
McCarthy is an unpopular leader with no ability to public speak in coherent ways, and has long been viewed with skepticism by those on the right. Theres a reason he wasnt made Speaker in 2015, and Paul Ryan had to be convinced to run himself from outside of the leadership.
Steve Scalise wants the job, and as the No. 2 House Republican, he is likely to put up a fight for it if the GOP returns to the majority next year. Scalise didnt challenge for the job after 2018s losses because being Minority Leader is a thankless job, and then after 2020 went much better for the GOP than expected, a challenge was off the table.
Scalise is not favored to win the Speakership next time, but McCarthy has a lot of vulnerabilities, and Scalise has managed his relationships within the GOP well. Whether he formally launches a challenge or not, he will be counting his votes, and if McCarthy is seen to not have won by enough, he will be very vulnerable.
Democrats Odds Of Keeping The House Are Slimming Fast
The Democratic House majority emerged from the 2020 election so bruised and emaciated that experts gave it less than three years to live.
In defiance of polling and pundit expectations, Republicans netted 11 House seats in 2020, leaving Nancy Pelosis caucus perilously thin. Since World War II, the presidents party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections. If Democrats lose more than four in 2022, they will forfeit congressional control.
If the headwinds facing House Democrats have been clear since November, the preconditions for overcoming those headwinds have also been discernible: The party needed Joe Biden to stay popular, the Democratic base to stay mobilized and, above all, for Congressional Democrats to level the playing field by banning partisan redistricting.
A little over 100 days into Bidens presidency, Democrats are hitting only one of those three marks.
Historically, theres been a strong correlation between the sitting presidents approval rating and his partys midterm performance. Only twice in the last three decades has the presidents party gained seats in a midterm election in both cases, their approval ratings exceeded 60 percent.
The party that controls the presidency tends to gets less popular as time goes on, and future declines are surprisingly correlated with first quarter polling.Many reasons that this cycle might be different, but so far public polling points to Dems getting 48% on election day.
What’s The Impact Of Inflation And The Economy
It’s giving the GOP some votes and may depress Democratic turnout.
Republicans are leading among those who say inflation is “very important” in their vote, as well as those feeling “a lot” of impact from higher food and gas prices.
In the last midterm elections, in 2018, the party out of power also won the votes of those who said the economy was bad. The trouble for Democrats now is that far more voters today say the economy is bad and this time Democrats are in power.
Independents who cite economy and inflation as top concerns plan to vote for a Republican this fall. Independents who say the economy is bad break Republican.
Many Democratic voters share sour views of the economy, too, and while it is not making them abandon the party, it may make some stay home: Democrats who are feeling the impacts of higher food and gas prices are less enthusiastic about voting and less likely to say they’ll turn out. Democrats who say the economy is bad are less enthusiastic about voting than those who think the economy is good. those who rate the economy positively.
Don’t Miss: How Many Black Republicans In Congress
Black Voters And Faith Leaders Rejoice At Warnocks Historic Win: I Think It Speaks Volumes
ATLANTA Michael Simmons, 63, has not missed voting in a major election since 1976. The most important for him was 2008, when he cast a ballot for President Barack Obama. But his votes in Novembers general election and the Senate runoffs on Tuesday were ranked closely behind.
The Rev. Raphael Warnocks success in the Senate runoffs sent a jolt of jubilation through much of Georgias African-American community, as they saw a Black man taking an office that had been held by segregationists when he was born. There was also a level of pride in having an emissary of the Black church serve in the highest levels of government.
I never would have thunk put that down, thunk! Id see this happen, said Mr. Simmons, a manager at a nonprofit organization in downtown Atlanta. Personally, I dont expect the world to change because we have a Black man in the Senate, but we can see progress.
The office of the nonprofit where Mr. Simmons works is just a few blocks from Ebenezer Baptist Church, the renowned congregation that Mr. Warnock leads. Mr. Simmons often saw Mr. Warnock walking around the neighborhood.
The win carried enormous significance for him: This was a place where for many years we got the short end of the stick, Mr. Simmons, who grew up in Alabama and moved to Atlanta after college, said.
Democratic Ads Boosted Extremists In Republican Primaries Was That Wise
Helping election-denying, Trump-endorsed candidates may secure a more beatable general election opponent but some see it as a cynical and morally dubious move
When Peter Meijer voted to impeach Donald Trump, breaking with nearly all his Republican colleagues in one of his first acts as a newly elected member of Congress, Democrats praised him as the kind of principled conservative his party and the nation desperately needed.
But this election season, as Meijer fought for his political survival against a Trump-endorsed election denier in a primary contest for a Michigan House seat, Democrats twisted the knife.
It is part of a risky, and some say downright dangerous, strategy Democrats are using in races for House, Senate and governor: spending money in Republican primaries to elevate far-right candidates over more mainstream conservatives in the hope that voters will recoil from the election-denying radicals in November.
In Michigan, the plan worked for now. Meijer lost after the House Democrats official campaign arm spent $425,000to elevate Meijers opponent, John Gibbs, a former Trump administration official who asserted, falsely, that Joe Bidens victory was simply mathematically impossible.
It is impossible to know what impact the Democrats ad had on the race, but it cost more than the Gibbs campaign raised.
The voters in the Republican primary had agency, said Bill Saxton, the Democratic party chair in Kent county. They had two choices.
Recommended Reading: Patriots At Tampa Bay Tickets
The Party Thats Actually Best For The Economy
Many analyses look at which party is best for the economy. A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that Democratic presidents since World War II have performed much better than Republicans. On average, Democratic presidents grew the economy by 4.4% each year versus 2.5% for Republicans.
A study by Princeton University economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson found that the economy performs better when the president is a Democrat. They report that by many measures, the performance gap is startlingly large. Between Truman and Obama, growth was 1.8% higher under Democrats than Republicans.
A Hudson Institute study found that the six years with the best growth were evenly split between Republican and Democrat presidents.
Most of these evaluations measure growth during the presidents term in office. But no president has control over the growth added during his first year. The budget for that fiscal year was already set by the previous president, so it’s helpful to compare the gross domestic product at the end of the presidents last budget to the end of their predecessors last budget.
For Obama, that would be the fiscal year from October 1, 2009, to September 30, 2018. Thats FY 2010 through FY 2017. During that time, annual GDP increased from $15.6 trillion to $17.7 trillion, or 14%. Thats 1.7% per year.
The chart below ranks the presidents since 1929 on the average annual increase in GDP.
Is Virginia A Democratic Or Republican State
Of the states eleven seats in the House of Representatives, Democrats hold seven and Republicans hold four. The state is widely considered blue-leaning, a trend which moves parallel with the growth of the Washington D.C. and Richmond suburbs.
Furthermore, is Virginia a swing state? Election analytics website FiveThirtyEight identifies the states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin as perennialswing states that have regularly seen close contests over the last few presidential campaigns.
Besides, what political party is Virginia?
Virginia recognizes only two political parties: Democrats and Republicans.
Was Virginia always a democratic state?
Since the 2012 Virginia elections, Virginia has always voted for the Democratic statewide candidate. Since the 1851 Virginia gubernational election, the first gubernatorial election in Virginia in which the governor was elected by direct popular vote, 34 Virginia Governors have been Democrats.
Dont Miss: Are Republicans More Racist Than Democrats
Recommended Reading: John James Republican Or Democrat
Age And Race Differences In Views Of Voting Policies
When it comes to voting policies, younger people are typically more likely than older people to favor increased ballot access, whether that is through automatic voter registration, disapproval of removing voters from registration lists if they have not recently voted, allowing ex-convicts to vote, or making Election Day a national holiday. This difference is primarily driven by age differences among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
About one-in-three Republicans ages 65 and older favor policies that would automatically register all eligible citizens to vote, as do 35% of Republicans ages 50 to 64, 41% of those 35 to 49 and 46% of Republicans younger than 35. There is almost no age difference among Democrats on this proposal.
Similar age dynamics can be seen across a range of voting proposals. Younger Republicans are much more likely to support re-enfranchising people convicted of felonies than are those 65 and older . They also are substantially more likely to support making Election Day a national holiday .
Younger Republicans are significantly less likely to support removing voters from registration lists if they have not recently voted or confirmed their registration compared with older Republicans . Younger Democrats are somewhat more likely than older Democrats to support removing voters from lists if they have not recently voted compared .
Pelosi Says American People Have Made Their Choice Clear In Voting For Biden
In a letter to her Democratic colleagues in the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed confidence that Biden would be elected president, even though several states have yet to be called.
The American people have made their choice clear at the ballot box, and are sending Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to the White House, Pelosi said.
She also praised House Democrats for keeping their majority, saying that the House will now have the opportunity to deliver extraordinary progress. However, she only obliquely referenced the heavy losses by several freshmen Democrats who had flipped red seats.
Though it was a challenging election, all of our candidates both Frontline and Red to Blue made us proud, Pelosi said.
What Questions Do You Have About State Politics
Vox politics reporter Nicole Narea is here to help you unpack the fractured American political system and how it affects your life. Submit your question here.
Democrats have a fundraising advantage heading into the fall in key Senate races, including in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and Ohio. Theyre also outpacing the GOP among small-dollar donors: through their platform ActBlue, Democrats amassed $64 million in small donations in June, compared to Republicans $26.6 million through their platform, WinRed.
There are individual races that are much closer than expected, including the Texas governors race and the Utah Senate race, where Republican incumbents are facing surprisingly tough reelection campaigns. And prospects for some Republican pickups are looking less likely now that the GOP has nominated far-right candidates.
Democrats thought theyd enter the midterms empty-handed after multiple failed attempts at passing Bidens legislative agenda. But on Wednesday, the president and Sen. Joe Manchin , who had held up previous iterations of the bill, struck a deal on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which addresses everything from prescription drug costs to corporate taxes to the climate. Its not yet law, but if the party is able to pass the package, theyd have a historic victory to campaign on in the fall.
Midterm Elections: Pennsylvania Senate Seat Odds
With Dr. Oz probably winning the primary results are still too close to call as of May 19 but hes leading and likely to hold that lead the Pennsylvania GOP got a good-not-great outcome, in that theres no evidence Dr. Oz will be a good general election candidate but they dodged the much bigger bullet of Kathy Barnette.
Even with Oz, Democrats have a better than punchers chance of winning the state, with Oz having served for a foreign military and not having lived in Pennsylvania for long being two contrasts to the aggressive western Pennsylvanian John Fetterman, who cruised to an easy victory in the Democratic primary Tuesday.
Fetterman will contrast his deep roots to the state and his working class roots with Ozs celebrity status and on-and-off relationship to the state. In anything resembling a neutral political environment, Fetterman would win.
Oz should start the general election a slight favorite, because its not a neutral environment, but its still hard to suggest that Oz is some magical campaigner. He didnt exactly run away with the primary this week despite a Trump endorsement.
Recommended Reading: Jeep Patriot Cvt Transmission Replacement Cost
Republicans Lead Race For House Control At Start Of 2022 Campaign Cbs News Battleground Tracker
The CBS News Battleground Tracker model finds Republicans start the 2022 campaign with a lead in the race for the House, with 230 seats to 205 seats for Democrats. The party with 218 seats controls the House.
Control of Congress is won and lost in districts, of course, so to bring you this estimate we’ve surveyed tens of thousands of voters across them all, and connected their current preferences to the 2020 Census, district data and millions of voter records to estimate seat counts. That makes it a picture of things today, not a forecast it’s July, not November.
Our accompanying survey this week gives insights into why things stand as they do, including whether the conditions for a wave could emerge because there isn’t one now and on the flip side, some real warning signs for the GOP.
The Richest Politicians In Congress
Another financial question many voters want to know involves the 116th Congress. Who are the richest politicians in Washington? Are there more Democrats or Republicans who top that list? The answer may surprise you. In fact, the top 10 richest politicians are fairly evenly distributed across the aisle. Furthermore, nearly half the members of Congress are millionaires. Based on reported numbers from May 2019, the median net worth of Congress members is just over $1 million. Listed below are the 10 wealthiest members.
Poll: Republicans Set To Win House Back In Massive Landslide
Republicans are set to win back the House in a historic landslide in 2022, according to a poll conducted by NBC News.
Based on all factors, youd have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022, poll tracker David Wasserman told NBC.
Democrats best hope is that Bidens approval rating stays above 50 percent and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.
Bigleaguepolitics.com reports: The NBC report cites the all-too-predictable trend of the presidents party losing House seats in midterm elections, Democrats choosing not to run for reelection in some cases, and Republicans reaping the benefits of increased online donations, which are now on par with those of Democrats.
It is early, too early, to guarantee the Democrats loss of their slim 220-212 House majority. Voters wont hit the polls for almost 15 months, and things often have a way of changing on a dime in the world of politics. But the early signs certainly arent encouraging for the Democrats, especially as President Joe Bidens approval rating has taken a hit in recent weeks. American voters are being bombarded with images of a completely bungled withdrawal of Afghanistan and headlines about increased COVID hospitalizations and deaths. Inflation is also becoming a growing concern each month, contrary to the hopes of the Federal Reserve, and the crisis at the southern border shows no signs of abating.