The Numbers Bear Out The Dominance Of The Democrats
According to gallup.com about 42% of voters claim to be independents. Nationally, the democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million. Many other republicans, as noted, lean in either the conservative or highly religious direction. Overall, targetsmart found that 42.6 percent of the new voters registered this year lean democratic, and only 29 percent lean republican . There are about twice as many registered democrats living in passaic county than republicans. The counties with the 10 highest percentages of democratic party, republican party, and no party preference registered voters are: the percentage of voters registered with the republican party decreased from 27.1% to 24.0%. 4,600 fewer republicans after the riot. In the week from jan. Currently, republicans have 51 seats, and democrats have 47 with two races still undecided. The biggest spikes in republicans leaving the party came in the days after jan. Their partisan affiliation was roughly split between three groups: Gallup.com says 31% of voters are democrats.
How The Gop Could Win Pennsylvania
Hello, party leaders, potential candidates, lifelong donors, and long-suffering base voters. Its me, the guy who constantly asks about Pennsylvania. The guy who drives people to muting me on Twitter because I wont stop talking about Pennsylvania. Who is already showing flashcards of Collar Counties to his seven-week-old son.
Recently, I received an email from a follower of the Decision Desk, the gist of which was asking me, yes or no, do I really believe the Keystone State is winnable.
Well, heres my answer: Yes.
Yes, this state, which hasnt gone for a Republican president since H.W. Bush in 1988, is absolutely winnable. But not for the reasons often cited . In fact, the thing has driven me along in my obsessive quest for the great beast east of Ohio is an article Nate Cohn, now with The New York Times, but then with The New Republic, wrote on the eve of the 2012 election: Romney has a problem in Pennsylvania: Math. This passage, in particular, has stuck with me for three years:
Its easy to understand why Romney would invest in Pennsylvania.;Like Missouri or North Carolina for Democrats, Pennsylvania is what I call a spreadsheet state. When you start plugging in favorable numbers for the traditionally disadvantaged party, its too easy to get up to 48 percent of the vote, or even more. But those final hundred thousand votes are incredibly difficult and require something extraordinary.
Illinois: Error Registered A Possible 545 Noncitizen Voters
CHICAGO An error in Illinois new automatic voter registration system led to a possible 545 non-U.S. citizens being registered to vote, 15 of whom cast ballots, state officials publicly acknowledged this week.
Illinois Secretary of State Jesse Whites office, which oversees drivers licenses, said the data of 574 people who self-identified as non-citizens was erroneously forwarded to elections officials to be registered to vote. Election officials confirmed Tuesday that 545 of them were ultimately registered.
It was a computer error, White spokesman Dave Druker said Tuesday. We moved to correct it and contacted people involved.
As Illinois Republicans called for an immediate hearing over a serious breach of voter protections, election officials worked to determine how many of the registrations were indeed invalid. Over 150 registrations had been canceled, said State Board of Elections spokesman Matt Dietrich.
Dietrich said it was possible some people indicated that they werent citizens by mistake. When Illinois residents get standard drivers licenses, they have to confirm they meet the criteria to vote, certifying they are 18 and a U.S. citizen. Only those who meet the criteria are supposed to be sent to election officials for registration.
The 15 people cast 19 ballots in elections in 2018 and 2019.
It was not immediately unclear what would happen to the individuals.
Follow Sophia Tareen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/sophiatareen.
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The Secret Is Unregistered Voters
So is there a path to winning the Keystone? As I said before, yes. The secret lies not with the current number of registered voters, where Democrats dwarf Republicans by a cool million, but in the number of citizens of voting age not registered. Finding them and goading them into registering wont be easy, but they arent a rare breed: per current registration figures provided by the Department of State, and the Census estimate of current voting-age population, there are more than 1.6 million such untapped voters residing here. Heck, some of them may have already registered once before, but it lapsed.
Attesting to the sheer power of that Democratic voter drive that started a decade ago, only 14 percent of them reside in Philadelphia or Allegheny County. A clear majority, 62 percent to 38 percent, of this untapped mass resides in counties that went to Romney. I broke down the numbers and converted it into a simple diagram, where the counties have been re-sized according to how big a share of the untapped vote they account for:
As A Successful Republican New Mexico Governor 2016 Libertarian Party Presidential Candidate Gary Johnson Pronounced That He Had Slashed Taxes More Than A Dozen Times Balanced The There Are Many On The Left Who Support The Libertarian Partys Proposals To Legalize The Liberal Use Of Marijuana
39.66 percent of voters are registered with that party. The most recent poll at the time of writing gives a d+11 advantage. Even if youd rather not commit to any particular party, you may find yourself wishing to support a specific democrat candidate when primaries come around. Once you know which party you belong to, it will be easier to decide which candidates to vote for during elections. This quiz will ask you questions about your political beliefs. However, registered republicans outnumber democrats in six of the states 21 counties, and there several other counties that are pretty evenly split. Over 60% of black voters are registered democrats compared to just 3% that are registered in surveys, more than half of seattle voters identified as democrat or leaning democratic. The answer may surprise you. Are you a democrat or a republican? Are there more democrats or republicans who top that list? The election of 2010 gave republicans the majority beginning in january, 2011. These are broadly generalized opinions; There are still way more registered democrats;
The election of 2010 gave republicans the majority beginning in january, 2011. Hello and thank you for registering. It was a more natural association. related: Are there more democrats or republicans who top that list? The republican party has waxed and waned in popularity and membership over the years, never quite having as many registered partisans as the democrats.
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Republicans Had Been Making Voter Registration Gains On Democrats In Pennsylvania For Years Stats Show 2020 May Have Changed That
PENNSYLVANIA Fraught with turmoil, judicial anxieties, violence, and uncertainties which shook democracy to its core, the 2020 election season in Pennsylvania was unlike any other in history.
And the fallout from the events of the past few months is only just beginning to unfold, with repercussions likely to be felt for years to come.
While it’s too early to tell exactly what will happen to the Republican Party after President Donald Trump’s loss, a glimpse at shifting voter registration patterns provides a glimpse at how the electorate is responding to recent events.
Democrats Have Been Getting Out There
Committed partisans are the most reliable participants in elections, and often vote more than 90 percent of the time with their stated party. Independents, on the other hand, are mostly lying , and when truly independent, are incredibly unreliable as a bloc from cycle to cycle. If they are the true pox on both houses types, and that terribly undecided, they may not even bother to vote. To win a major election, greater emphasis must be placed on finding, registering, contacting, and turning out new voters.
This is exactly what Democrats did throughout the country after 2004, and they certainly gave Pennsylvania a good one-over. From 2000 to 2014, Democratic and third-party efforts tipped the scales of registration even further to the Left, expanding the blue teams edge over Republicans by almost 650,000 voters. President Obama received more votes in 2012 than Sen. John Kerry did eight years prior, even with a drop-off from his 2008 high, a testament to his teams incredible turnout operation.
Despite that sizable shift, the actual impact on elections from 2000 to 2012 was miniscule: the presidents margin in the Keystone in 2012 was only about 105,000 votes wider than Gores had been. How does his performance over Gores stack up with other states he carried?
In Virginia, the margin swung by over 379,000 from 2000. In Colorado, 283,000. Wisconsin, 218,000. Iowa, 88,000. Nevada, 89,000.
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It’s Always Blue In Philadelphia And It’s Getting Bluer
There’s been a saying for decades that you can’t win Pennsylvania without winning the Philadelphia suburbs. Trump proved that untrue, at least for one year, when he won in 2016 without winning Philadelphia and its suburbs.
But the old adage became;true again in 2018, when a five-county region in southeastern Pennsylvania sent a record number of women to U.S. Congress and state offices.;
In 2019, history was made again. Democrats were elected to all five seats on the Delaware County Council, which had been held by a majority of Republicans since the Civil War. That same year, Democrats won the Board of Commissioners in Bucks County for the first time since 1983.;
This year could yield a record Democratic turnout in Philadelphia, Montgomery, Bucks, Chester and Delaware counties. As of Monday, the five-county region had added 75,574 more registered Democrats than in 2016. The biggest increase was an addition of 20,214 Democrats in Montgomery County since the last presidential election.;
In the same time period, the region has shed 31,384 Republicans from its voting rolls. The biggest loss was in Delaware County, where there are 16,981 fewer Republicans than in 2016.;
Past Jumps In Party Affiliations
The bump in Democratic affiliation following Bidens inauguration mirrors that of former President Barack Obamas first term, Jones said.
That was really the high point that weve seen; kind of the 2006-2009 period, when really the majority of Americans either identified as Democrats outright or were independents but they leaned toward the party, he said.;Our data on this only goes back to the 90s, but its pretty much the only time we consistently had one party with the majority of Americans on their side.
Republican advantages, though rarer and more short-lived, followed the Gulf War in 1991 when George H.W. Bush was in office and the 9/11 terrorist attacks during President George W. Bushs term, according to Gallup. More people also reported GOP affiliation after the 1994, 2010 and 2014 midterm elections.
Whether the Republican Party can regain advantage during the 2022 midterm elections may rely on the successes of the Biden administration, according to Jones.
A lot of it is going to depend on how things go over the course of the year. If things get better with the coronavirus and the economy bounces back and a lot of people expect Biden can keep relatively strong approval ratings, then that will be better for the Democrats, Jones said.;But if things start to get worse unemployment goes up or coronavirus gets worse; then his approval is going to go down. Its going to make things a lot better for the Republican Party for the midterm next year.
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Are You Surrounded By Democrats Or Republicans How Jersey Breaks Red And Blue In All 21 Counties
Here is a county-by-county breakdown of which political party rules in each of New Jerseys 21 counties and how much each party gained since this time last year.
New Jersey is a Democratic-leaning state, and its getting bluer by the month.
Democrats have registered voters at a faster pace than Republicans in the Garden State. But the GOP still maintains pockets of control in some counties.
Republicans are outnumbered by registered Democrats by nearly 1 million people , according to the latest statistics from the states Division of Elections. As of the end of September, New Jersey had 2,307,937 registered Democrats and 1,331,102 Republicans.
Over the past year, Democrats added more than double the number of registered voters compared to the GOP , according to the data.
However, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in six of the states 21 counties, and there are a few other counties that are pretty evenly split. Also, Republicans out registered the number of new Democrats in six counties from this time last year, including in three counties where the number of Ds outweigh the Rs.
The largest number of New Jersey voters 2,378,040 to be exact have not formally claimed any party affiliation.
Twelve years ago, Democrats had a 290,000 vote plurality over registered Republicans statewide, said Ben Dworkin, director of Rowan Universitys Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship.
There Are 644835 Inactive Voters In Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania could rock;the vote a little harder.
There are 644,835 inactive voters in the state, including 418,777 inactive Democrats and 226,058 inactive Republicans, according to voter registration records.
The state defines an inactive voter as someone who has not voted in five years or has moved and not registered to vote in their new Pennsylvania county.
Think of a Penn State football game. Imagine a sellout crowd at Beaver Stadium. Multiply it by 6. Add 5,403 more people. That’s how many registered voters in Pennsylvania;are not actually voting.;
That includes 80,862 voters in southcentral Pennsylvania throughout Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon and York Counties.;
A closer look:;
- Lancaster County: 20,040 inactive voters
- Cumberland County: 18,662 inactive voters
- York County: 16,926 inactive voters
- Dauphin County: 12,508 inactive voters
- Franklin County: 5,282 inactive voters
- Adams County: 3,943 inactive voters
- Lebanon County: 3,501 inactive voters
While those numbers pale in comparison to the more than 6.6 million active voters in Pennsylvania, every vote matters; especially in a battleground state. The 644,835 inactive voters here could easily decide the election.;
Remember, in 2016, it was 44,000 votes that decided the winner.;
The USA Today Network is working to register every voter, make it easy for voters to check their registration and find their polling place. You can find all of that here.;
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We Dont Know How Many Mail Ballots Wont Count
Under state law, counties can only accept mail ballots that arrive by 8 p.m. on Election Day. But last fall, anticipating unprecedented voting by mail and U.S. Postal Service delays, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled officials could count ballots that arrived up to three days after the election.
That grace period is gone, and ballots had to arrive at county election offices by 8 p.m. Tuesday to count. Its too soon to say how many ballots will come in after that deadline, but in last years general election about 10,000 ballots arrived during that three-day period.
Most Counties Finished Counting Mail Ballots Tuesday Night
The states universal mail voting law gave Pennsylvanians a new way to cast a ballot in 2020, but it also put increased pressure on county election offices. Local officials repeatedly pleaded with lawmakers to pass a bill giving them time before Election Day to begin processing, or pre-canvassing, these ballots.
But in the end, no such change was made, and it took some counties days to get through millions of ballots, giving former President Donald Trump a window to falsely claim the election was stolen from him.
County election departments once again couldnt start processing mail ballots until 7 a.m. Tuesday, but many were able to count most or all of their mail ballots by the time polls closed, thanks to low turnout.
Some counties, including Beaver and Monroe, chose not to begin counting mail ballots until Wednesday, with election officials saying they wanted their staff to focus on running the in-person election.
Mercer County Election Director Thad Hall said his staff will count the countys approximately 4,000 ballots Wednesday and conduct an audit by hand with the two major political parties on Friday.
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Poring Over Party Registration
This is not the best of times for the Democratic Party. No White House; no Senate; no House of Representatives; and a clear minority of governorships and state legislatures in their possession. Yet the Democrats approach this falls midterm elections with an advantage in one key aspect of the political process their strength in states where voters register by party.
Altogether, there are 31 states with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. Among the party registration states are some of the nations most populous: California, New York, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts.
The basic facts: In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million.
Still, Republican Donald Trump found a route to victory in 2016 that went through the party registration states. He scored a near sweep of those where there were more Republicans than Democrats, winning 11 of the 12, while also taking six of the 19 states where there were more Democrats than Republicans a group that included the pivotal battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
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