So How Can Republicans Win Without Texas
Lets take the 2016 map with Texas flipped as a starting point. Republicans were at 268 Electoral College votes, meaning that they would only need to flip one Democratic state to win the election. The simplest way to do that would be to target states like Minnesota , the only midwestern state the Republicans failed to pick up in 2016, minus solid blue Illinois. Lets flip Minnesota and see how the map looks then.
This is one way in which Republicans can win an election without Texas. The ten extra Electoral College votes from Minnesota push the Republicans to a victory, albeit by a small margin but a victory nonetheless. Of course, this begs the question, how realistic is this map? Well, Minnesota was by no means a comfortable victory for the Democrats in 2016; Clinton won the state by just one-and-a-half points or roughly 44,000 votes out of a total of 2.7 million votes cast. Its not unrealistic to think that, with some extra effort in campaigning, Republicans could flip the North Star State.
Republicans could also target Nevada , which was ranked as a lean-Democrat/battleground state in 2016. Clinton eventually won Nevada and its six Electoral College votes, but only by a margin of around 30,000 from just over a million cast. Heres how that map would look.
A smaller margin than if the Republicans flipped Minnesota, but a victory nonetheless.
All maps courtesy of 270towin.com
What If The Republicans Win Everything Again
Total victory for the G.O.P. would mean Trump unleashed.
The end of Robert Muellers investigation. The loss of health insurance for several million people. New laws that make it harder to vote. More tax cuts for the rich. More damage to the environment. A Republican Party molded even more in the image of President Trump.
These are among the plausible consequences if the Republicans sweep the midterm elections and keep control of both the House and Senate. And dont fool yourself. That outcome, although not the most likely one, remains possible. The last couple of weeks of polling have shown how it could happen.
Voters who lean Republican including whites across the South could set aside their disappointment with Trump and vote for Republican congressional candidates. Voters who lean left including Latinos and younger adults could turn out in low numbers, as they usually do in midterm elections. The Republicans continuing efforts to suppress turnout could also swing a few close elections.
No matter what, Democrats will probably win the popular vote in the House elections, for the first time since 2012. Trump, after all, remains unpopular. But the combination of gerrymandering and the concentration of Democratic voters in major cities means that a popular-vote win wont automatically translate into a House majority.
A Division Of Power In Government Is Common In The Us With The Republicans And The Democrats Often Splitting Control Of The White House And Congress
Joe Biden may have been announced as President Elect but there are still some crucial decisions to be made on how America will be governed for the next four years. The presidential election appears to have been a pretty resounding win for the Democrats but the picture is less clear in the Senate, when both parties retain hope of having a majority when the Upper House reconvenes next year.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer released a statement after Bidens victory was called, saying: “A Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate would be the biggest difference maker to help President-elect Biden deliver for working families across the country.
Sen. Chuck Schumer: “There has been no evidence of any significant or widespread voter fraud. Joe Biden won this election fair and square. The margins of his victory are growing by the day.” pic.twitter.com/bvAFNdVAw5
The Hill November 9, 2020
All elections in Georgia, not just those for the Senate, require the winning candidate to pick up over 50% of the votes cast. This year neither of the states two Senate races had a majority winning so a run-off will be held on 5 January, with both the Democrats and the Republicans holding out hope of securing the vital seats needed to give them a majority in the Senate.
Why is control of the Senate so important?
How would a Republican Senate affect a Biden presidency?
How likely is it that a Republican Senate compromises with President Elect Biden?
What If Republicans Win The Midterms
- March 3, 2018
WASHINGTON A sizable portion of the American population has been convulsing with outrage at President Trump for more than a year. Millions of people who previously took only mild interest in politics have participated in protests, fumed as they stayed riveted to news out of Washington and filled social media accounts once devoted to family updates and funny videos with furious political commentary.
Yet public life on the whole has remained surprisingly calm. A significant factor in keeping the peace has surely been anticipatory catharsis: The widespread expectations of a big Democratic wave in the coming midterm elections are containing and channeling that indignation, helping to maintain order.
What will happen if no such wave materializes and that pressure-relief valve jams shut?
The country was already badly polarized before the plot twist of election night in 2016, of course, but since then liberals and much of what remains of Americas moderate center have been seething in a way that dwarfs the usual disgruntlement of whichever faction is out of power. While nobody can know for sure whether Mr. Trump would have lost but for Russias meddling, many of his critics clearly choose to believe he is in the White House because Vladimir Putin tricked the United States into making him its leader.
This November, if the wave turns out to be a mere trickle, we could see the accomplishment of that goal take hold.
Gold If Republicans Win The Election
Oliver said if President Donald Trump pulls out a surprise victory in the election, the gold price could plunge, just as it did after the 2016 election. That happened against expectations.
While he denounced “left-wing populism,” he also said that Trump “has his own populist streak” because he likes high tariffs, cutting taxes, increasing spending and “a central bank that prints to fund internal improvements and a rising stock market.”
“The precious metals offer safe haven from the approaching political and economic turbulence,” Oliver wrote. “After a relatively brief correction, gold and silver have resumed their climb.”
He added that if the market demands that the dollar be backed on-third by gold like it was between the 1690s and the `908s, gold would need to trade at $8,927 an ounce. On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve is forced to back its liabilities by two-thirds, which he said would be more appropriate for a crisis, the gold price would have to rise to $17,854 an ounce. Further, as the Fed’s balance sheet grows, these numbers for the gold price will increase.
“Given the economic and political risks, $1,900/oz is a bargain,” he declared.”
Reality Check 1: Biden Cant Be Fdr
Theres no question that Biden is swinging for the fences. Beyond the emerging bipartisan infrastructure bill, he has proposed a far-reaching series of programs that would collectively move the United States several steps closer to the kind of social democracy prevalent in most industrialized nations: free community college, big support for childcare and homebound seniors, a sharp increase in Medicaid, more people eligible for Medicare, a reinvigorated labor movement. It is why 100 days into the administration, NPR was asking a commonly heard question: Can Biden Join FDR and LBJ In The Democratic Party’s Pantheon?
But the FDR and LBJ examples show conclusively why visions of a transformational Biden agenda are so hard to turn into reality. In 1933, FDR had won a huge popular and electoral landslide, after which he had a three-to-one Democratic majority in the House and a 59-vote majority in the Senate. Similarly, LBJ in 1964 had won a massive popular and electoral vote landslide, along with a Senate with 69 Democrats and a House with 295. Last November, on the other hand, only 42,000 votes in three key states kept Trump from winning re-election. Democrats losses in the House whittled their margin down to mid-single digits. The Senate is 50-50.
Lessons Democrats Can Learn From The 2020 Elections
Why are the elections taking place now?
These are runoffs. Georgia does things a little differently than most other states. Back in November, if one of the Senate candidates had gotten 50% plus one vote, that candidate would have won the election outright and the state would have avoided a runoff in that race. But that didn’t happen in either contest.
Perdue came closest he won 49.7% of the vote to Ossoff’s 47.9%. Calculated another way, out of almost 5 million votes cast, Perdue missed avoiding a runoff by a little over 13,000 votes.
The Loeffler-Warnock race had another hurdle. Because it was a special election, there weren’t primaries and everyone ran on the same ballot together at once.
In a field of 20 candidates, including a prominent Republican challenger, Loeffler got just over a quarter of the vote.
Warnock actually finished ahead of her, with about a third of the vote. But when the votes were combined by party in that race, Republicans were narrowly ahead of Democrats, 49.4% to 48.4%.
Interest is high, given not just the money spent, but the high early-vote turnout, which began Dec. 14 and continued through Friday.
Column: What Happens If Republicans Win The Senate
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For most of the year, it seemed almost certain that Republicans would win the six additional U.S. Senate seats they need to oust the Democrats from their majority and take control of Congress.
But the outlook has turned murkier in recent weeks. While a GOP majority is still the most likely outcome, its no longer as sure a bet. Endangered Democratic incumbents in North Carolina and Alaska are waging surprisingly strong campaigns, and a Republican incumbent in Kansas is in unexpected trouble. We dont have a lock on this thing at all, one GOP strategist told me recently.
It even seems possible that Senate elections could end in a draw, with a 50-50 split, in which case Vice President Joe Biden would cast votes as a tiebreaker.
And thats not even the most exotic possibility.
One scenario is a Senate in which neither major party wins 50 seats. The next Senate will include two, maybe three independents. Incumbents Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, whose seats arent up this year, may be joined by Greg Orman, a newcomer who leads the polls in Kansas. Sanders, a socialist, would continue to vote with Democrats, but King and Orman, both centrists, would be wooed by both parties and could instantly become two of the most powerful politicians on Capitol Hill.
But the most intriguing scenario for next years Senate, paradoxically, is the least exotic one: What happens if Republicans win a slim majority of 51 or 52 seats?
More Tax Cuts For The Wealthy And Further Spending Cuts For Middle
Most legislation needs 60 votes in order to break a filibuster in the Senate, but a congressional budget resolution can establish parameters for subsequent legislation to be enacted through the reconciliation process, which only requires 51 votes to pass a measure. The budget resolution itself cannot be filibustered and also only requires 51 votes to pass the Senate. As a result, it is easier for the majority to pass a budget resolution and a reconciliation bill than most other legislation.
The current conservative economic and fiscal roadmap is the fiscal year 2015 budget put forward by former vice presidential nominee and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan . The Ryan budget would provide those with incomes of at least $1 million another $200,000 per year in tax cuts while cutting nondefense spending by $4.8 trillion. Roughly $3.3 trillion of those cuts, or nearly 70 percent, target programs that help low-income and middle-class families, such as Medicaidwhich provides health coverage for low- and moderate-income familiesand Pell Grants, which help students pay for college.
When given the opportunity, Senate Republicans voted for the various Ryan budgets in 2011, 2012, and again in 2013. Previous Senate Republican actions make it clear that the budget that would result from a Republican majority would most likely feature many of the same components as Rep. Ryans past budgets.
Here Is What’s In The Covid
What does the early voting tell us?
It’s always a little tricky to interpret early-voting data and ascribe real meaning to it, but Democrats see some hopeful signs.
Three million people cast ballots early. That’s a record already for total votes cast in a Georgia runoff election. And who is voting is what’s giving Democrats optimism: Black voters are making up a higher percentage of voters than they did for the Senate races in November, and turnout in Democratic congressional districts is higher than in GOP-held ones.
Of course, Democrats saw hope in early-voting numbers in Texas before Nov. 3, and Trump wound up winning that state by 6 points, a wider margin than the polls had predicted.
How much money has been spent on the races?
Almost $500 million has been spent on advertising between the two races in just the two months since the presidential election, according to the latest numbers provided to NPR by AdImpact, a political ad-tracking firm. The figures measure ad reservations between Nov. 4 and Jan. 5.
With outside groups included, Republicans have outspent Democrats $271 million to $218 million.
What Happens When Republicans Simply Refuse To Certify Democratic Wins
Its something we need to start preparing for now.
What will the institutions of liberal democracy do when Republican officials simply refuse to concede Democratic victories? The question isnt as far-fetched as it may seem, and the reckoning may be coming far sooner than most expect.
The entire left-leaning political world has spent the months after the 2020 election obsessed over the fairness of elections, and conservative attempts to rig the vote through gerrymandering and voter suppression. This is for good reason, of course: Republicans know they lack the support to win majority support in a fair contest, but believe they have the right to rule nonetheless for reasons that ultimately boil down to white supremacy, religious dominionism and antiquated patriarchal beliefs. So Republicans have been busy passing bills to restrict voting among young people and non-whites, while doing their best to ensure that exurban conservative whites continue to be dramatically and unfairly overrepresented in the House, Senate and Electoral College.
Its hard to overstate how dangerous this is, and what its consequences might entail in the very near future. As Greg Sargent notes, the GOP appears to be plunging headlong into a level of full-blown hostility to democracy that has deeply unsettling future ramifications.
And no, thats not an exaggeration. Everything were seeing from the Republican Party is pointing directly to it in 2024.
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A Vote To Repeal The Affordable Care Act
Senate Republicans have indicated one of their first votes, should they be in the majority, would be to repeal the ACA. This would most likely occur during the first months of 2015, the same time that millions of Americans will be shopping in the state and federal marketplaces to sign up for health coverage.
Moreover, Senate Republicans would be voting to repeal the ACA when the law is working: The uninsured rate has dropped to a record low, according to a Gallup poll: 7.3 million people were enrolled and paying their premiums in the marketplaces as of August, and another 8 million people have health coverage through Medicaid, not to mention the 5 million people who signed up for ACA-compliant plans outside the marketplace. In addition, millions of Americans benefit from the consumer protections that ban insurers from denying coverage because of a pre-existing condition and from putting both lifetime and annual coverage limits on their care.
For some reason, congressional Republicans want to return to old political fights at a time when the rest of the country is ready to move forward. Having a substantive debate on how to improve the ACA and the nations health care system is one thing. Scoring political points on a law that is delivering for Americans is another.
What To Watch For
Activists and a number of Democrats have been heavily pressuring left-leaning Justice Stephen Breyer to retire while Democrats still have the power to confirm Bidens chosen nominee without Republican interference. While control of the Senate will next be determined through the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats have urged Breyer to act sooner, as Democrats slim majority in the Senate50 votes plus Vice President Kamala Harris as a tie breakermeans the party could lose their majority sooner, should one Democratic senator become incapacitated or unexpectedly have to step down. Breyer, for his part, has so far given no indication that he plans to imminently retire, and has spoken out against the idea of the Supreme Court being subject to political interferenceeven soon publishing a book on the topic and how judges try to avoid considerations of politics.
How Challenges To States Electors Will Work
For a challenge to proceed, at least one lawmaker from each chamber must object to a states electors. More than two dozen House Republicans have said they will try to challenge results, and a dozen GOP senators will join them even though Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has urged senators to stay away from this.
Lawmakers dont have to give a detailed explanation of why they object; they just object in writing, which Pence will read out loud.
If theres an objection to a states electors raised by both a House and Senate lawmaker, the chambers have to split up and vote on that objection. Most of this will be done silently, save for Pence reading out loud the objections.
They have up to two hours to debate each one. That means there will be simultaneous debates in the House and Senate. We expect congressional leaders in both chambers to move to put down the challenges as quickly as possible. In the House, Pelosi will let lawmakers from the states being challenged do the speaking on the Democratic side.
What If The 2020 Election Audits Show Trump Really Won
We just don’t know. We just don’t know what comes next. It is all a calculated guess. The US Constitution is silent. Even if, if, if, it is so very clear through professional forensic election audit results, that the presidential election of 2020 was stolen and President Trump actually won, there appears to be no obvious remedy stated in the US Constitution to right this wrong. We just don’t know.
The Founding Fathers did not write up a “what if” in the Constitution to make things right. The Founding Fathers wrote up nothing in the Constitution in case mail-in ballots or the internet were used to manipulate the vote. The scary part is that since the answer to possible election fraud appears not to be in the Constitution, nor in federal law, nor in federal court cases, then the answer-the remedy will come from somewhere else. That somewhere else, we know not. But probably not from the words within the US Constitution. Much of this is conjecture.
I. This we do know…
* With a strict constructionist view of the wording in the Constitution, the words are not there to “road map” how to fix possible presidential election fraud.
* The Constitution mentions nothing about the Electoral College re-convening. Historically, the Electoral College has never re-convened for a second time for a presidential certification.
* We know that President Trump is planning something very big and important this summer, and America might look and feel very different by Labor Day Weekend.
Texas Republican Suggests Civil War Will Happen If Democrats Win Georgia Senate Runoffs
As voters in Georgia go to the polls today in a runoff election that will decide who represents them in the U.S. Senate, a Texas Republican suggested Monday evening that if Democrats win those races, conservatives might just declare civil war.
During an appearance on Fox News, Rep. Chip Roy told host Tucker Carlson:
Heres the thing. What happens tomorrow in Georgia if we have a Democratically controlled Senate, I mean, were now basically at full-scale hot conflict in this country, whereas right now were in a cold civil war. Weve got a major problem in this country where the American people, the regular people out there that are working every day, hardworking Americans, they are getting trampled by a system that is rigged against them.
The system is rigged against them? Well, Donald Trump is currently the president and Republicans control the Senate, so wouldnt that mean the rigged system is being perpetuated by those in power, i.e. the GOP?
But that wasnt all Roy had to say. He added:
That is what is at stake, and if the American people in Georgia dont show up, if Georgians dont show up and ensure that we hold the Senate in Republican hands, then thats whats happening. Two additional votes coming out of the Senate in Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico, they lock it down for good.
i uh..i think a republican member of congress just threatened civil war if the dems win in georgia tomorrow pic.twitter.com/yZhwB75Up1
Andrew Lawrence January 5, 2021
Weakening Of The Investigations Against Trump
If Democrats dont control the House or the Senate, they cant initiate investigations of Trump or some of his more controversial cabinet members, such as Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt.
More importantly, after the 2018 elections, the electoral process will recede as a constraint on the president and GOP in terms of the Russia investigation at least for a while.
We dont really know why Trump, despite his constant criticisms of the investigation, has not fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions or Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, or why he has not directly tried to stop the probe by special counsel Robert Mueller. Maybe Trump, despite his rhetoric, has some real respect for the rule of law. I think its more likely that Trump understands that firing Rosenstein or making a drastic move to stop the Mueller probe would increase both the chances of Democrats winning the House and/or Senate this year, and the odds that the resulting Democratic-led chamber would feel compelled to push to impeach Trump. But if the GOP emerges from 2017 and 2018 without losing control of the House or the Senate, I suspect that, with the next election two years away, the president will feel freer to take controversial steps to end the Russia probe. And I doubt Republicans on Capitol Hill would try to stop him.
What Congress Is Doing On Wednesday
Throughout November and December, states certified their results. Then the electoral college voted Dec. 14 based on those results and made Biden the winner. States sent their electoral college vote totals to the new Congress to be counted and confirmed. This counting will happen on Wednesday. Its largely a formality, since election law says Congress has to treat states results completed by the safe harbor deadline of Dec. 8 as conclusive.
Wednesday is the penultimate step in the post-election process. All thats left after that is to inaugurate Biden.
I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver
sarah: Yeah, Democrats might not have their worst Senate map in 2022, but it will by no means be easy, and how they fare will have a lot to do with the national environment. And as we touched on earlier, Bidens overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats midterm chances.
nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. And then it wouldnt even matter if Democrats win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bills fate for at least a while longer.
sarah: Lets talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. Its still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that arent grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke will help them win.
What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?
With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.