Republican Voters On Their Preferred Candidate For President
If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Donald
Asked of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022. Respondents who answered someone else or did not offer a response are not shown.
The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.
While about one-fourth of Republicans said they didnt know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well-liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSantis similar to the 46 percent who said the same about Mr. Trump.
Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial: Mr. Trump held a 62 percent to 26 percent advantage over Mr. DeSantis among Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mainly receive their news from another source.
Mr. Trumps troubles inside his party leave him hamstrung in a matchup against an unusually vulnerable incumbent.
Understand The Taliban Takeover In Afghanistan
Who are the Taliban?The Taliban arose in 1994 amid the turmoil that came after the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan in 1989. They used brutal public punishments, including floggings, amputations and mass executions, to enforce their rules. Heres more on their origin story and their record as rulers.
Who are the Taliban leaders?These are the top leaders of the Taliban, men who have spent years on the run, in hiding, in jail and dodging American drones. Little is known about them or how they plan to govern, including whether they will be as tolerant as they claim to be. One spokesman told The Times that the group wanted to forget its past, but that there would be some restrictions.
How did the Taliban gain control?See how the Taliban retook power in Afghanistan in a few months, and read about how their strategy enabled them to do so.
What happens to the women of Afghanistan?The last time the Taliban were in power, they barred women and girls from taking most jobs or going to school. Afghan women have made many gains since the Taliban were toppled, but now they fear that ground may be lost. Taliban officials are trying to reassure women that things will be different, but there are signs that, at least in some areas, they have begun to reimpose the old order.
Overall, Mr. Bidens approval rating has fallen to around 50 percent among Latino voters in national surveys conducted since the fall of Kabul.
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Key Findings From The Times/siena College Poll
The first poll of the midterm cycle.The New York Times has released its first national survey of the 2022 midterm cycle. Heres what to know:
Bidens struggles to win approval.President Biden is facing an alarming level of doubt from inside his own party, with 64 percent of Democratic voters saying they would prefer a new standard-bearer in 2024. Voters nationwide, meanwhile, gave Mr. Biden a meager 33 percent job-approval rating, and only 13 percent said the nation was on the right track.
Some in G.O.P. are ready to leave Trump behind.As the former president weighs another White House bid, nearly half of Republican primary voters would prefer someone other than Mr. Trump for president in 2024, with a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.
A tight race for Congress.Despite Mr. Bidens low approval ratings, Democrats are roughly tied with Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Among registered voters, 41 percent said they preferred Democrats to control Congress compared with 40 percent who preferred Republicans.
The class divide widens.Voters who said abortion, guns or threats to democracy were the biggest problem facing the country backed Democrats by a wide margin, as Republicans make new inroads among nonwhite and working-class voters who remain more concerned about the economy.
Still, many Republicans who favor someone else in a primary would nonetheless rally behind Mr. Trump if he won the nomination.
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Vanderbilt Poll: Approval For Biden And Leeand For A 2024 Trump Presidential Rundrops As Voter Malaise Simmers
May 26, 2022, 6:00 AM
In a sign that malaise over rising inflation and stressors related to pandemic recovery could be influencing Tennesseans attitudes toward elected leaders, support for President Joe Biden and Gov. Bill Lee has dropped among registered voters, according to the most recent statewide Vanderbilt Poll.
Poll co-directors John Geer, Ginny and Conner Searcy Dean of the College of Arts and Science and professor of political science, and Josh Clinton, Abby and Jon Winkelried Professor of Political Science, say the new findings align with a national trend of waning support for Biden, even among Democrats and independent voters. Tennessee voters also are less inclined to see the merit of another presidential run by Donald Trump.
Theres a general dissatisfaction with the direction of the country right now, and we pick that up in a lot of different wayswhether it be in the national poll or in how people are viewing local leaders, Geer said. One of the themes our latest poll shows is that here in Tennessee, there is a declining appetite to have a replay of the 2020 presidential election in 2024.
Among Democrats, 79 percent of those polled said they approve of Bidens performance, while last year 92 percent voiced support for him. Only 31 percent of all those polled approved of Bidens performancedown from 39 percent last year around this timeand a mere 25 percent said they hope Biden runs for reelection.
Data Download: The Number Of The Day Is 60 Percent
Thats the net positive rating for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the latest NBC News poll 67 percent had positive views of Zelenskyy, while 7 percent viewed him negatively.
For comparison, the late Princess Diana, had a net positive rating of 75 percentage points in a survey conducted shortly after her death. Zelenskys rating is also on par with Pope John Paul II, who had a 58 percent net positive rating.
At the other end of the spectrum, Russian President Vladimir Putins net negative rating was minus 87 percentage points, with 88 percent of Americans viewing Putin negatively and just 1 percent viewing him positively. That rating put Putin just behind Saddam Hussein, who had a net negative rating of minus 91 percentage points.
Other numbers to know:
6: The number of hours the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol interviewed Trumps son-in-law Jared Kushner yesterday.
$7 million: Thats how much energy executive and Arizona GOP Senate hopeful Jim Lamon will report raising in the first fundraising quarter of 2022, per the Washington Examiner, which includes a $5 million contribution from Lamon himself.
$10 million: The amount of money the super PAC Protect Our Future, which is backed by cryptocurrency executives, plans to spend on Democratic primaries this year.
39 percent: Bidens approval rating in the new Marist College poll.
985,569: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far.
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
About The Vanderbilt Poll
The survey of 1,000 adults who are registered voters living in Tennessee was conducted between April 26 and May 14, 2022, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The statewide poll is conducted annually by Vanderbilt Universitys Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions. In 2015, the Vanderbilt Poll became a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Researchs Transparency Initiative. More detailed results and methodology can be found at vu.edu/poll.
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Voters Were Asked Whether They Would Vote For The Democratic Or Republican Candidate If The Election For Us Congress Was Held In Their District Today
Bidens impact on the midterm ballot
- Morning Consults generic ballot test in June 2018, at a similar place in the midterm cycle, found no such discrepancy: Voters who disapproved of Trump were just as likely to say theyd vote for the Democratic candidate as voters who approved of him were to back a Republican.
- The GOP has made gains on the generic ballot since Morning Consult began tracking the question this cycle, with congressional Republicans now tied with Democrats, compared with a deficit of 4 percentage points in September.
The latest Morning Consult/Politico survey was conducted June 4-5, 2022, among a representative sample of 2,006 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
There Have Been Growing Democratic Concerns About The Presidents Approval Rating
According to the Ipsos presidential approval tracker, Bidens approval rating has steadily declined since the start of his presidency.
In Ipsoss most recent survey, Bidens overall approval was at 39 percent, including 74 percent among Democrats, 31 percent among independents, and 12 percent among Republicans. Thats a notable dip across the board compared to the start of his presidency, when he was at 55 percent overall, 91 percent among Democrats, 47 percent among independents, and 21 percent among Republicans.
Other July polls have echoed these findings: The Times/Siena poll had his approval at 33 percent, a CNBC poll had it at 36 percent, and an Economist/YouGov poll had it at 37 percent. Overall, FiveThirtyEights polling aggregator shows Bidens approval currently sitting at 38 percent.
Issues including rising living costs are among the contributors to negative perceptions of Biden, even though other economic indicators, like the unemployment rate, have been strong.
In a recent bright spot, Biden did see a small bump among both Democrats and independents in the latest Ipsos poll. Compared to a survey the firm conducted in early July, Biden saw his approval go up 5 percentage points and 7 percentage points, respectively, among both groups. Reuters Jason Lange noted that a strong jobs report on July 8 showing a steady 3.6 percent unemployment rate and the addition of hundreds of thousands of new jobs may have contributed to this boost.
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Biden Approval On Economy Hits New Low: Poll
President Bidens economic approval ratings have hit a record low for his presidency and surpassed the lowest ratings of the previous two presidents, new polling shows.
A CNBC All-America Economic survey put Bidens economic approval rating at 30 percent, 5 points below a previous survey in April.
That number is also 11 points below the low for former President Trump and 7 points below the lowest for former President Obama.
Conducted July 7-10, the poll surveyed 800 Americans and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The survey has been distributed for 15 years, but the latest results include the worst economic outlook measures CNBC has recorded, the report concludes.
Over 60 percent of poll participants said they expect the country to fall into a recession in the next year, and 6 percent believe its already fallen.
Just 22 percent of those surveyed reported believing the economy will improve in the next 12 months.
Six percent of Republicans said they approve of Bidens economic record, and just over half 58 percent of Democrats back their partys leader.
Bidens overall presidential approval in the poll was one point lower than Trumps lowest rating, at 36 percent.
Inflation was the top concern, followed closely by abortion. The lowest listed concern was the coronavirus, a change from recent years. Other concerns included crime, immigration, jobs and climate change.
Midterm Roundup: Border Politics
Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., encouraged Biden not to end the order known as Title 42 thats prevented immigrants from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border during the pandemic, amid fears that rescinding the authority would cause a surge of migrants at the southern border. Kelly and Sen. Krysten Sinema, D-Ariz., stressed that the Department of Homeland Security doesnt appear to have a plan to maintain a humane and orderly process at the border.
A surge of migrants could create yet another headache for Biden, but also for senators like Kelly, who are top GOP targets. Republicans have long been hammering Kelly and other vulnerable Democrats on immigration, and a surge of migrants could provide another opening for GOP attacks.
New York redistricting: A state judge struck down New Yorks congressional and state legislative maps as unconstitutional gerrymanders, giving legislators until April 11 to draw new district lines.
Georgia Senate: Two super PACs backing GOP Senate candidates Gary Black and Latham Saddler are planning seven-figure ad buys attacking Republican frontrunner Herschel Walker ahead of the May 24 primary, in an attempt to force Walker into a primary runoff, Politico reports.
Florida Governor: Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Frieds campaign is signaling that she plans to question Rep. Charlie Crists past relationship with Trump in the Democratic primary for governor, NBCs Marc Caputo reports.
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Voxs German Lopez is here to guide you through the Biden administrations burst of policymaking. .
As for Trump, Bidens 42.9 percent approval rating right now is only slightly higher than Trumps 42 percent on the eve of the 2018 midterms, when Republicans lost 40 House seats.
The one potential silver lining for Biden is that the trajectory of Trumps numbers shows that some improvement in the second year is possible, albeit rare. Trumps approval rating hit its lowest point in 2017 but improved by about 5 points over 2018, which likely helped him avoid an even worse midterm defeat. It is possible that if conditions in the country improve, Bidens numbers could rebound.
Of course, things could also get worse.
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Bidens Approval Rating Just Dipped Under One Marker You Dont Want To Be Below
President Joe Bidens job approval rating in July is his lowest since taking office, with support among independent voters steadily dwindling, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll.
If independents serve as a weathervane for public opinion, Biden faces strong headwinds of dissent. In July 2021, nearly half of all independent registered voters said they approved of Bidens performance so far. Now, nearly half 46 percent say they strongly disapprove of Bidens presidency. Overall Biden support from independents has dropped by 20 percentage points, a trend that could weigh down Democratic candidates running for Congress this November.
In the new poll, about a third of U.S. adults 36 percent say they like how Biden is leading the nation. Another 57 percent said they disapprove of his performance his highest disapproval rating yet. Looking at race, income, geography, age or education, no group mustered majority approval of Biden as president.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
Party affiliation offers the lone exception, with three-quarters of Democrats and people who said they voted for Biden in 2020 endorsing the president. But that support has slid substantially during Bidens time in office, down from 94 percent shortly after his inauguration.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
The question is: How low can he go, and how much can Democratic candidates outperform him?
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Yuge Poll: Desantis Crushing Trump By Giant Margin In Their Home State Of Florida
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is stomping ex-president and now-resident of Florida Donald Trump by over 20 points in the latest presidential preference poll in the state.
In a preference poll out this week, DeSantis is ahead of Trump by double digits and well outside the margin of error on the question of which candidate Republican voters would prefer as the GOP nominee in 2022.
In the aggregate that number was 61% for DeSantis versus just 39% for Trump. Even among undecideds, the Lean Trump voters were outstripped by the Lean DeSantis.
Victory Insights July 2022
Florida-based pollster Victory Insights notes this is the widest margin over Trump to date in any publicly-listed 2024 poll.
On their favorability metrics , DeSantis is likewise crushing Trump, particularly on Enthusiasm which they rate at 93% for the current governor and only 72% for the ex-president. And that doesnt just impact the future, argues Victory. These sentiments among voters affect 2022, as well.
Video: DeSantis closes the gap with Trump in early GOP primary polling
