California Voter And Party Profiles
NOTES: Likely voters are registered voters meeting criteria on interest in politics, attention to issues, voting behavior, and intention to vote. For a full description of these criteria and regional definitions, visit www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf. For race and ethnicity, results are presented for Latinos, non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic Asian Americans, non-Hispanic African Americans, and non-Hispanic other race and multiracial adults.
Sources: Seven PPIC Statewide Surveys from September 2019 to July 2020, including 11,725 adults and 7,243 likely voters. California Secretary of State, Report of Registration, August 2020. US Census Bureau, 20142018 American Community Survey.
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With Partisanship Rising Three
Over the last decade, the number of young Americans who see politics as partisan, and politicians as selfish, has risen sharply. Seventy-six percent of youth agreed with the statement, We need more open-mindedness in politics, only 4% disagreed.
- 68% agreed with the statement, Elected officials seem to be motivated by selfish reasons. This marks a 14-point increase since 2010.;
- 56% ;agreed with the statement, Politics has become too partisan — a 10-point ;increase since 2010.;
% Of Republicans View Trump As True Us President
A combination picture shows U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaking during the first 2020 presidential campaign debate, held on the campus of the Cleveland Clinic at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., September 29, 2020. Picture taken September 29, 2020. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
WASHINGTON, May 24 – A majority of Republicans still believe Donald Trump won the 2020 U.S. presidential election and blame his loss to Joe Biden on illegal voting, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.
The May 17-19 national poll found that 53% of Republicans believe Trump, their party’s nominee, is the true president now, compared to 3% of Democrats and 25% of all Americans.
About one-quarter of adults believe the Nov. 3 election was tainted by illegal voting, including 56% of Republicans, according to the poll. The figures were roughly the same in a poll that ran from Nov. 13-17 which found that 28% of all Americans and 59% of Republicans felt that way.
A Democrat, Biden won by more than seven million votes. Dozens of courts rejected Trumps challenges to the results, but Trump and his supporters have persisted in pushing baseless conspiracy theories on conservative news outlets.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 61% of Republicans believe the election was “stolen” from Trump. Only about 29% of Republicans believe he should share some of the blame for his supporters’ Jan. 6 deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol.
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With The Population Diversifying Non
The voter population for presidential elections continues to change in its demographic makeup. This relates both to turnout and to the changing shifts in the nations overall population. Because of the rising growth rates of nonwhite race and ethnic groups nationally and the increased educational attainment of younger voters, the share of all voters identifying as non-college white continues to shrink. Thus, for the first time in a presidential election, white voters without college degrees comprised less than two-fifths of the voter population.
These changes look quite different from 2004, when non-college white voters comprised more than half of the voter population and nonwhite minorities comprised only one-fifth. Since then, the formers share dropped to 39.7%; the share of white college-educated voters increased modestly, from 27.7% to 31.3%.; and the share of nonwhite voters rose to 29%, almost equaling that of white college graduates.
The shift in the race-ethnic makeup of the populationespecially the younger populationis evident when looking at voters in the past five presidential elections. During this period, younger generations of voting-age citizens have become more racially diverse. In 2020, for the first time, at least 10% of the total voter population identified as Latino or Hispanic, as did 15% of voters below age 40. The white share of the under-age-40 voter population declined by 10 points from 2004 to 2020, to 64% .
Map 1 And Table : Party Registration Totals By State July 2018
Democrats no longer control the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, or for that matter most of the governorships or state legislatures. But they still maintain a toehold in the political process with their edge in the realm of voter registration. At least that is the case in the 31 states and the District of Columbia that register voters by political party. As of this month, 13 of these states boast a Democratic plurality in registered voters, compared to eight states where there is a Republican plurality. In the other 10 states, there are more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans, with Democrats out-registering the Republicans in six of these states and the GOP with more voters than the Democrats in the other four. They are indicated in the chart as I or I. Nationally, four out of every 10 registered voters in party registration states are Democrats, with slightly less than three out of every 10 registered as Republicans or independents. Overall, the current Democratic advantage over Republicans in the party registration states approaches 12 million.
Recent party registration numbers used here are from state election websites and are based on totals compiled in early July 2018. Registration data are as of the following months: October 2016 ; February 2017 ; November 2017 ; January 2018 ; March 2018 ; April 2018 ; May 2018 ; June 2018 ; and July 2018 .
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Key Point From This Article
Altogether, there are 31 states with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million.
Tens Of Thousands Of Voters Drop Republican Affiliation After Capitol Riot
More than 30,000 voters who had been registered members of the Republican Party have changed their voter registration in the weeks after a mob of pro-Trump supporters attacked the Capitol an issue that led the House to impeach the former president for inciting the violence.
The massive wave of defections is a virtually unprecedented exodus that could spell trouble for a party that is trying to find its way after losing the presidential race and the Senate majority.
It could also represent the tip of a much larger iceberg: The 30,000 who have left the Republican Party reside in just a few states that report voter registration data, and information about voters switching between parties, on a weekly basis.
Voters switching parties is not unheard of, but the data show that in the first weeks of the year, far more Republicans have changed their voter registrations than Democrats. Many voters are changing their affiliation in key swing states that were at the heart of the battle for the White House and control of Congress.
Nearly 10,000 Pennsylvania voters dropped out of the Republican Party in the first 25 days of the year, according to the secretary of states office. About a third of them, 3,476, have registered as Democrats; the remaining two-thirds opted to register with another party or without any party affiliation.
In all of those areas, the number of Democrats who left their party is a fraction of the number of Republican defectors.
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Voter Turnout In 2020 And Beyond
The new census data makes plain that the 2020 election was record-breaking in terms of the magnitude of its voter turnout. Yet there are two aspects of this turnout which need to be emphasized. One is the sharp rise in the turnout among white non-college votersa group that has strongly favored Republicans. The other is the accentuated turnout among young people and people of colorrepresenting the increasing influence of voters who heavily lean toward Democratic presidential candidates.
Both of these groups exerted countervailing forces on the results of the 2020 election, leading to close popular vote totals in a handful of states. However, the underlying demographics of the nations voter population show that Democratic-leaning voter populations are on the rise in both fast-growing and slow-growing parts of the country.
This raises the question as to whether even greater turnout among white non-college voter groupsor Republican efforts to alter voting requirements in their favorwill be enough to counter the influence of young voters and voters of color in future presidential elections.
For The First Time There Are Fewer Registered Republicans Than Independents
For the first time in history, there are more registered independents in the United States than there are registered Republicans.
It may not be for the reason you think, though.
New data from Ballot Access News, which tracks registrations in the 31 states that require voters to register by party, shows that independents account for 29.09 percent of voters in them, compared with 28.87 percent for Republicans. As recently as 2004, Republicans outpaced independents by nearly 10 percentage points.
There are still way more registered Democrats; 39.66 percent of voters are registered with that party.
This marks the first time since party registration began in the early 1900s that the number of registered independents in the United States has surpassed members of either major political party, according to Ballot Access News.
Heres the data going back to 2004:
But before anybody chalks this up as having to do with the current occupant of the White House, its worth parsing the trends.
While independents have surpassed Republicans, there actually hasnt been a huge drop in GOP party registration since President Trump took office. Since October 2016, GOP registration has dropped by half a percentage point. The number of registered Democrats declined by nearly a full point over the same span. Independents have benefited from both drops.
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A Plurality Believe History Will Judge Trump As A The Worst President Ever; Less Than A Quarter Of Young Americans Want Trump To Play A Key Role In The Future Of Republican Politics; Young Republicans Are Divided
Thirty percent of young Americans believe that history will judge Donald Trump as the worst president ever. Overall, 26% give the 45th president positive marks , while 54% give Trump negative marks ; 11% believe he will go down as an average president.
Twenty-two percent of young Americans surveyed agree with the statement, I want Donald Trump to play a key role in the future of Republican politics, 58% disagreed, and 19% neither agreed nor disagreed. Among young Republicans, 56% agreed while 22% disagreed, and 21% were neutral. Only 61% of those who voted for Trump in the 2020 general indicated their desire for him to remain active in the GOP.
If they had to choose, 42% of young Republicans consider themselves supporters of the Republican party, and not Donald Trump. A quarter indicated they are Trump supporters first, 24% said they support both.
Despite The State Of Our Politics Hope For America Is Rising And So Is Youths Faith In Their Fellow Americans
In the fall of 2017, only 31% of young Americans said they were hopeful about the future of America; 67% were fearful. Nearly four years later, we find that 56% have hope. While the hopefulness of young whites has increased 11 points, from 35% to 46% — the changes in attitudes among young people of color are striking. Whereas only 18% of young Blacks had hope in 2017, today 72% are hopeful . In 2017, 29% of Hispanics called themselves hopeful, today that number is 69% .
By a margin of nearly three-to-one, we found that youth agreed with the sentiment, Americans with different political views from me still want whats best for the country — in total, 50% agreed, 18% disagreed, and 31% were recorded as neutral. In a hopeful sign, no significant difference was recorded between Democrats and Republicans .
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Record 22 Million Californians Registered To Vote Heading Into General Election
SACRAMENTO, CA Secretary of State Alex Padilla released the final statewide Report of Registration ahead of the;November 3, 2020, General Election. As of October 19, 2020, a record 22,047,448 Californians were registered to vote. This represents an increase of 2,635,677 registered voters since the last Report of Registration at a similar point in a presidential election cycle .
87.87% of eligible Californians are registered to vote.;This is the highest percentage of eligible citizens registered to vote heading into a General Election in the past;80 years.
For the first time, California;now;has more than 22 million registered voters, said;Secretary of State Alex Padilla. There are more voters registered in California than the number of people in the state of Florida!;Record;registration and a historic election points towards a big;voter turnout, which could also;mean longer lines and wait times on Election Day. If you havent voted yet, I;highly recommend that;you;consider voting early.
If you missed the voter registration deadline, you still have to opportunity to vote using Same Day Registration. 2020 marks the first year that voters can complete the Same Day voter registration process and cast their ballot at any in-person voting location in the county;or the county elections office, Padilla added.
Trends in Statewide Voter Registration 1996 2020
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22,047,448 |
Registration Comparison October 19, 2020 Report vs. October 24, 2016 Report
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The Swing State Voting Patterns That Decided The Election
Given the importance of the state outcomes in the Electoral College, it is useful to study turnout patterns in swing or near-swing states from the 2020 presidential election .
Three such states in the rapidly growth South and West regions are Georgia, Arizona, and Texas. The former two gave Biden a razor-thin win over Donald Trump; the latter, which Trump won, showed a smaller Republican margin than in recent elections.
In all three states, turnout was highest for white college graduates, and lowest for nonwhite voters. Yet in each case, 2016-to-2020 turnout increases were greater for non-college white voters than for white college graduates. Each state also exhibited sizeable gains in their nonwhite turnout rates, which countered the Republican-leaning impact of the non-college white turnout increase. This was especially the case for the large Latino or Hispanic populations in Arizona and Texas, and modestly for the Black population in Georgia.
It is the case that the white non-college bloc voted somewhat less Republican in each of these states in 2020 than in 2016. However, it appears that the rise in white non-college turnout helped to make the races in Georgia and Arizona close, and in Texas, kept the Republican margins from shrinking further.
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A Wide And Growing Generational Divide In Partisanship
The generational gap in partisanship is now more pronounced than in the past, and this echoes the widening generational gaps seen in many political values and preferences.
Millennial voters have had a Democratic tilt since they first entered adulthood; this advantage has only grown as they have aged.
Democrats enjoy a 27-percentage-point advantage among Millennial voters . In 2014, 53% of Millennial voters were Democrats or leaned Democratic, 37% tilted toward the GOP.
Millennials remain more likely than those in older generations to call themselves independents ; still, the roughly two-to-one Democratic advantage among Millennials is apparent both in straight and leaned partisan affiliation.
Generation X voters are more divided in their partisan attachments, but also tilt toward the Democratic Party . The balance of leaned partisan identification among Gen X voters has been relatively consistent over the past several years. Baby Boomer voters are nearly evenly divided .
The Silent Generation is the only generational group that has more GOP leaners and identifying voters than Democratic-oriented voters. About half of Silent Generation voters identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, a larger share than a decade ago; 43% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party.
Gender gaps in other generations are more modest. For instance, 57% of Silent Generation men identify with or lean toward the GOP, compared with 48% of Silent women.
Unvaccinated Americans Whiter More Republican Than Vaccinated
Americans who say they will definitely not get vaccinated against COVID-19 are overwhelmingly white and Republican, according to polling by the Kaiser Family Foundation.;Meanwhile, the group that plans to wait and watch for problems is disproportionately Black and Hispanic. ;;The United States is falling just short of President Joe Biden’s goal of having 70% of Americans receive at least one dose of vaccine by July 4. ;;While about one-third of Americans have not been immunized against COVID-19, their reasons and intentions break down largely along racial and political lines. ;;
Hard no;Only 14% of Americans say they will definitely not get vaccinated. But this group is 69% white, compared with 7% Black and 12% Hispanic. Republicans make up 58% of this group, while Democrats account for 18%.;”From the beginning of the pandemic, we’ve seen political divides in attitudes towards COVID itself, not just the vaccines,” said Liz Hamel, director of KFF’s Public Opinion and Survey Research program. ;;For example, she said, “believing that the media has exaggerated the seriousness of the pandemic that’s something that we heard President Trump saying when he was in office. It’s something that Republicans are more likely to agree with than Democrats. And people who believe that the pandemic has been exaggerated are much less likely to say they want to get the vaccine.”;More than half of those who said they would not get vaccinated said they did not need it.;
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