Composition Of The Us House Of Representatives By Political Party Affiliation For The 116th Congress In 2019 By State
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Opinionhow Can Democrats Fight The Gop Power Grab On Congressional Seats You Wont Like It
Facing mounting pressure from within the party, Senate Democrats finally hinted Tuesday that an emboldened Schumer may bring the For the People Act back for a second attempt at passage. But with no hope of GOP support for any voting or redistricting reforms and Republicans Senate numbers strong enough to require any vote to cross the 60-vote filibuster threshold, Schumer’s effort will almost certainly fail.
Senate Democrats are running out of time to protect America’s blue cities, and the cost of inaction could be a permanent Democratic minority in the House. Without resorting to nuclear filibuster reform tactics, Biden, Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may be presiding over a devastating loss of Democrats’ most reliable electoral fortresses.
Max Burns is a Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies. Find him on Twitter @themaxburns.
Gallup: Democrats Now Outnumber Republicans By 9 Percentage Points Thanks To Independents
“I think what we have to do as a party is battle the damage to the Democratic brand,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Jamie Harrison said on The Daily Beast‘s . Gallup reported Wednesday that, at least relatively speaking, the Democratic brand is doing pretty good.
In the first quarter of 2021, 49 percent of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or independents with Democratic leanings, versus 40 percent for Republicans and GOP leaders, Gallup said. “The 9-percentage-point Democratic advantage is the largest Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012. In recent years, Democratic advantages have typically been between 4 and 6 percentage points.”
New Gallup polling finds that in the first quarter of 2021, an average of 49% of Americans identify with/lean toward the Democratic Party, versus 40 percent for Republicans.
— Greg Sargent April 7, 2021
Party identification, polled on every Gallup survey, is “something that we think is important to track to give a sense to the relevant strength of the two parties at any one point in time and how party preferences are responding to events,”Gallup senior editor Jeff Jones told USA Today.
More stories from theweek.com
Rising Violent Crime Is Likely To Present A Political Challenge For Democrats In 2022
But there are roadblocks to fully enacting Democrats’ agenda. Their thin majorities in both chambers of Congress mean nearly all Democrats have to get on board with every agenda item in order to push through major legislative priorities. And without adjusting or eliminating the legislative filibuster in the Senate, Democrats need 10 Republicans to join them for various legislation — a near-impossible task.
The Justice Department Puts States On Notice About Election Audits And Voting Changes
“If they’re going to try to rely on rigging this game, because they don’t have a plan for the future and they can’t talk to the voters about their ideas and their vision, well, I think that makes me proud to be a Democrat.”
Maloney also posits that GOP turnout will be depressed in an election that doesn’t feature former President Donald Trump himself.
“There’s no evidence that this toxic Trump message will motivate voters without Trump on the ballot,” he says. “If the other side is making one big mistake, I think that might be it, which is a doubling down on this toxic Trump message of division and anger and racism and yet there’s no evidence they can pull out voters with the message without the messenger.”
He points to Texas Republican Jake Ellzey as a recent example. Ellzey was sworn in to the House on Friday, days after winning a special election that saw him defeat a Trump-backed candidate.
Maloney underscores: “It seems like the Trump endorsement’s not what it used to be.”
Here are more highlights from his conversation with NPR’s Susan Davis.
On polarization in Congress:
On his own reelection in 2022:
The Us Should Be Held Accountable: Guantnamo Survivor On The War On Terrors Failure
hen a shackled Mansoor Adayfi was lumped on to a heap of shivering, naked bodies in the pitch black, a hood over his head and muffs around his ears, he assumed he was going to die. He had just been conducting research in Afghanistan, and was expecting to begin university at the end of the year. Instead, he was accused of being an al-Qaida leader, kidnapped by Afghan warlords and handed over to the CIA.
He was kept in a prison camp in Afghanistan, then shipped to Guantánamo Bay. He remained hopeful. Aged 18, coming from a tribal area of Yemen with no electricity or running water, Adayfi did not know much about US values, but he assumed some principles held true in most of the world: that every person should be innocent until proven guilty; that if you have nothing to hide you should tell the truth; and that all humans, regardless of who they are, have rights.
He also believed common sense would prevail. After all, how could an 18-year-old from Yemen be an Egyptian al-Qaida leader when he couldn’t even speak the language captives accused him of speaking?
Unfortunately, his assumptions were wrong. This was the beginning of 20 years of hell for Adayfi, who was held captive in Guantánamo until 2016. His new memoir, much of it written while chained and shackled to the ground with cameras and guards watching him is a harrowing account of the injustices detainees faced.
With Control Of White House And Congress Democrats Have 2 Years To Make Big Changes
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U.S. Democrats secured unified control of the White House and Congress on Wednesday with the inauguration of President Joe Biden followed by Vice President Kamala Harris swearing in three new Democratic senators.
The three new senators bring the U.S. Senate to a 50-50 Democratic-Republican tie, with Harris as the presiding officer representing the tie-breaking vote.
With the U.S. House continuing under the leadership of Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Biden begins his term with the opportunity to work with the two Democrat-controlled chambers to enact significant legislative changes.
As a result of the shifting political power on Capitol Hill, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York has succeeded Republican Mitch McConnell as Senate majority leader. The Kentucky senator, who served in the top leadership post for six years, was highly skilled at blocking Democratic legislation, as well as advancing former President Donald Trump’s judicial and administration nominees through the confirmation process.
Schumer acknowledged some of those challenges Wednesday in his first speech as majority leader.
“This Senate will tackle the perils of the moment: a once-in-a-generation health and economic crisis. And it will strive to make progress on generations-long struggle for racial justice, economic justice, equality of opportunity and equality under the law,” Schumer said.
Poll Finds Startling Difference In Vaccinations Among Us Republicans And Democrats
A Washington Post-ABC News poll has found a startling difference between Democrats and Republicans as it relates to COVID-19 vaccination. The poll found that while 86% of Democrats have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine shot, only 45% of Republicans have.
In addition, the survey found that while only 6% of Democrats said they would probably decline the vaccine, 47% of Republicans said they would probably not be inoculated.
The poll also found that 60% of unvaccinated Americans believe the U.S. is exaggerating the dangers of the COVID-19 delta variant, while 18% of the unvaccinated say the government is accurately describing the variant’s risks.
However, 64% of vaccinated Americans believe the government is accurately describing the dangers of the delta variant.
Iran fighting COVID 5th wave The variant is having a global impact. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has warned that the country is on the brink of a “fifth wave” of a COVID-19 outbreak. The delta variant of the virus, first identified in India, is largely responsible for the rising number of hospitalizations and deaths in Iran, officials say.
All non-essential businesses have been ordered closed in 275 cities, including Tehran, the capital. Travel has also been restricted between cities that are experiencing high infection rates.
Reports say only about 5% of Iranians have been vaccinated.
I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver
sarah: Yeah, Democrats might not have their worst Senate map in 2022, but it will by no means be easy, and how they fare will have a lot to do with the national environment. And as we touched on earlier, Biden’s overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats’ midterm chances.
nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. And then it wouldn’t even matter if Democrats win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
One thing is for sure, though — whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think we’re stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bill’s fate for at least a while longer.
sarah: Let’s talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. It’s still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that aren’t grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or “woke” will help them win.
What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?
With that being said, the GOP’s strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but it’s hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.
Eric Holder: There Is Still A Fight For Democrats Against Gop Gerrymandering
In McConnell’s Kentucky, for instance, Republicans are divided over how far to go during the upcoming redistricting process, which they control in the deep-red state. The more extreme wing wants to crack the Democratic stronghold of Louisville, currently represented by Rep. John Yarmuth. More cautious Republicans like McConnell are willing to settle for smaller changes that reduce Democratic margins while stuffing more Republican voters into hotly contested swing districts.
Make no mistake: McConnell’s caution isn’t rooted in any newfound respect for the integrity of our electoral process. Instead, Republicans are mainly worried about avoiding the costly and embarrassing court decisions that invalidated their most extreme overreaches and potentially turn the line-drawing over to the courts. So McConnell’s approach doesn’t reject partisan gerrymandering — it just avoids the type of high-profile city-cracking that could land the Kentucky GOP in federal court.
Botched Afghanistan Withdrawal Gives Biden Biggest Crisis Of His Presidency
Joe Biden was facing the biggest crisis of his presidency on Monday after the stunning fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban caught his administration flat-footed and raised fears of a humanitarian catastrophe.
Recriminations were under way in Washington over the chaotic retreat from Kabul, which one Biden opponent described as “the embarrassment of a superpower laid low”.
Bowing to pressure, officials said the president would leave his country retreat, Camp David, to address the nation from the White House on Monday afternoon.
The Taliban swept into Kabul on Sunday after President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, ending two decades of a failed experiment to import western-style liberal democracy. Diplomatic staff were flown to safety but thousands of Afghans who worked with US forces were stranded and at risk of deadly reprisals.
As harrowing scenes played out on television – including desperate Afghans clinging to a US transport plane before takeoff – the White House scrambled to explain how the government collapsed so quickly.
Last month Biden, pointing to the Afghan military’s superior numbers and technology, predicted: “The likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”
Unrepentant, the president issued a statement on Saturday, insisting the sudden withdrawal had been the only possible choice.
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For instance, in 2020, Yarmuth won his Louisville district with a comfortable 62.7 percent of the vote. By turning Yarmuth’s single district into portions of two or three new districts, Republicans could turn his safe blue seat into swing districts and safe Republican strongholds. But the naked politicking of that kind of move would invite dozens of court challenges from outraged Democrats and election integrity organizations, tying up GOP time and treasure in the middle of campaign season.
Yet relying on the Republican-aligned Supreme Court to find a remedy is a gamble that could just as easily backfire on Democrats. In the 2019 case Rucho v. Common Cause, the conservative majority ruled 5-4 that Congress, not the federal courts, must address partisan gerrymandering. As a result, half a dozen Democrat-filed federal cases were tossed out and the gerrymandered district maps allowed to stand. More outcomes like that would be catastrophic both for Democrats and democracy.
For now, the National Democratic Redistricting Committee is fighting back against Republican efforts in a flurry of high-profile lawsuits. The organization, chaired by former Obama administration Attorney General Eric Holder Jr., has said it is committed to countering the Republican plan to split up blue cities.
‘i Stand Squarely Behind My Decision’ Biden Says After Taliban Takes Kabul
Joe Biden continued to defend his decision to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan, even after Taliban forces took Kabul and the world saw images of desperate Afghans attempting to flee the country.
“I stand squarely behind my decision,” Biden says. “After 20 years, I’ve learned the hard way that there was never a good time to withdraw US forces.”
President Biden: “I stand squarely behind my decision…there was never a good time to withdraw U.S. forces…The truth is, this did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated. So, what’s happened? Afghan political leaders gave up and left the country.” pic.twitter.com/v3nnvXxRiI
Biden said he and his national security team were “clear-eyed about the risks” of leaving Afghanistan, and he argued that the events of the past week demonstrate how America’s continued military involvement could not have ultimately propped up the Afghan government.
The US president criticized Afghan government leaders for fleeing the country and Afghan troops for refusing to properly defend their country.
“The truth is, this did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated,” Biden said.
The Guardian’s Daniel Strauss reports:
The office of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a congresswoman from California, distributed a set of talking points to members of Congress on the unfolding crisis in Afghanistan. The talking points, obtained by the Guardian, are below. They were sent out around noon on Monday.
Chart: Actually Most Of The Diversity In Congress Comes From Democrats
The 114th Congress being sworn in on Tuesday is being hailed as the most diverse Congress in history with more women and minorities than ever before. But that’s not thanks to the new Republican majorities in the House and the Senate.
Although the new Congress is 80 percent white, an equal amount male, and 92 percent Christian, the majority of non-white and women lawmakers are Democrats. In other words, even though these paltry numbers make up the “most diverse” Congress in existence, it’s thanks largely to Democrats that it’s this way.
There are a total of 81 minorities that are Democrats in both houses combined and 16 that are Republicans, according to data from CQ. The 114th Congress also has 79 Democratic women and 29 Republican women, also according to CQ.
Of the 188 Democrats in the newly sworn-in House of Representatives, 78 are minorities, according to CQ. Despite the rise of new stars like Rep. Mia Love just 12 of the 246 Republicans in the House majority are minorities. In the Senate, percentages are slightly better for Republicans. There are four Republican senators who are racial minorities and 3 Democrats who are racial minorities.
Among specific minorities, there is one Asian Senate Democrat and 10 Asian House Democrats. There are no Asian Republican lawmakers in the House or Senate in the 114th Congress.
There are also two members who identify as Native Americans in the House, both Republican. There are none in the Senate.
Chart: Christine Frapech.
Us House Approves Capitol Riot Probe; Many Republicans Buck Leadership
WASHINGTON, May 19 – The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday voted to create an independent commission to probe the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by former President Donald Trump’s supporters, as one in six Republicans defied party leaders’ attempts to block it.
Over the past two days, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell worked to kill a bipartisan bill to establish the commission to investigate the violence that left five dead including a Capitol Police officer.
But the House voted by 252-175 to approve the commission, which was styled after the panel that probed attacks on the United States on Sept. 11, 2001. The bill now goes to the Senate where its future was uncertain.
The solid number of Republicans voting for the independent investigation — 35 out of 211 — signaled some cracks in the party’s defense of Trump on a key vote. Trump opposes the creation of a commission.
All 10 of the House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in January voted for the commission.
The bipartisan outcome could give Senate Republicans second thoughts about working to defeat the initiative.
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, a Democrat, said McCarthy “got what he asked for” in a compromise on the structure of the commission, which would be charged with wrapping up its investigation by Dec. 31. McCarthy is a close ally of Trump.
PELOSI’S BACKUP PLAN
Gop Admins Had 38 Times More Criminal Convictions Than Democrats 1961
Democrats top row: President Obama, Clinton, Carter, Johnson, Kennedy. Republicans bottom row: President W. Bush, Bush, Reagan, Ford, Nixon.
This is the first in a five-part series on government corruption and how that corruption is investigated.
Republican administrations have vastly more corruption than Democratic administrations. We provide new research on the numbers to make the case.
We compared 28 years each of Democratic and Republican administrations, 1961-2016, five Presidents from each party. During that period Republicans scored eighteen times more individuals and entities indicted, thirty-eight times more convictions, and thirty-nine times more individuals who had prison time.
Given the at least 17 active investigations plaguing President Trump, he is on a path to exceed previous administrations, though the effects of White House obstruction, potential pardons, and the as-yet unknown impact of the GOP’s selection of judges may limit investigations, subpoenas, prosecutions, etc. Of course, as we are comparing equal numbers of Presidents and years in office from the Democratic and Republican parties, the current President is not included.
We’re aware some of our numbers differ from other totals, but we explain our criteria below.
Figure 1. Presidential administrations corruption comparison
How Republicans Pulled Off A Big Upset And Nearly Took Back The House
There seemed to be one safe bet when it came to the 2020 election results: Democrats would easily hold on to their majority in the House of Representatives. Not only that, but the conventional wisdom held that Democrats would pick up more than the 235 seats they won in the 2018 midterm elections.
While Democrats will have a majority next Congress, Republicans vastly outperformed expectations and nearly pulled off an election shocker.
As of this writing, CNN has projected that Democrats have won in 219 seats. Republicans have been projected the winners in 203 seats. There are 13 races outstanding, per CNN projections.
Of those 13, the Democratic candidates lead in a mere two of them.
In other words, if every one of those 13 seats went to the party leading in them right now, Democrats would have 221 seats to the Republicans’$2 214 seats in the next Congress.
Talk about a fairly close call for Democrats.
Now, Democrats may end up winning a few of the seats where they are currently trailing, but chances are they will end up at or south of 225 seats.
Compare that to what most quantitative forecasters who look at a slew of indicators predicted. Jack Kersting came the closest at 238 seats. FiveThirtyEight clocked in at 239 seats. The Economist model predicted that Democrats would win a median of 244 seats in their simulations.
Any sort of shy Trump vote was far smaller than a potential shy House Republican vote.
A 4- or 5-point miss is considerable.
Why Democratic Departures From The House Have Republicans Salivating
A growing number of Democrats in battleground districts are either retiring or leaving to seek higher office, imperiling the party’s control of the House and President Biden’s expansive agenda.
WASHINGTON — With 18 months left before the midterms, a spate of Democratic departures from the House is threatening to erode the party’s slim majority in the House and imperil President Biden’s far-reaching policy agenda.
In the past two months, five House Democrats from competitive districts have announced they won’t seek re-election next year. They include Representative Charlie Crist of Florida, who on Tuesday launched a campaign for governor, and Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio, who will run for the Senate seat being vacated by Rob Portman. Three other Democrats will leave vacant seats in districts likely to see significant change once they are redrawn using the data from the 2020 Census, and several more are weighing bids for higher office.
An early trickle of retirements from House members in competitive districts is often the first sign of a coming political wave. In the 2018 cycle, 48 House Republicans didn’t seek re-election — and 14 of those vacancies were won by Democrats. Now Republicans are salivating over the prospect of reversing that dynamic and erasing the Democrats’ six-seat advantage.
“It’s like going to war on a battlefield but you don’t know where you’re fighting, when you’re fighting or who you’re fighting,” Mr. Israel said.
Republicans Flip Democratic Seats Keep Majority In Michigan House
LANSING — Republicans are poised to return a majority to the Michigan House next term after offsetting potential losses by flipping two Democratic seats.
Losses by incumbent Reps. Brian Elder of Bay City and Sheryl Kennedy of Davison killed Democrats’ quest to seize control of the lower chamber for the first time since 2010. GOP candidates held enough other seats to retain at least a 57-53 majority.
It’s a tough blow for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who hit the campaign trail last month for Elder, Kennedy and other Democratic candidates in an attempt to break the GOP’s decade-long grip on the Michigan Legislature.
Instead, Republicans will retain control of both the House and Senate for the remainder of Whitmer’s first of two possible terms, limiting her ability to advance an agenda that has been largely stymied by partisan fights and COVID-19.
“The people of Michigan have spoken loud and clear – they want two more years of House Republican leadership at their state Capitol,” House Speaker Lee Chatfield of Levering said in a statement.
“House Republicans have the best plan of action to lead our state forward, and we have a proven track record of turning those plans into tangible results over the past ten years.”
Chatfield could not seek re-election this year after serving a maximum three years in the House. Rep. Jason Wentworth, R-Clare, is expected to succeed him as House Speaker.
Map: Republicans To Have Full Control Of 23 States Democrats 15
In 2021, Republicans will have full control of the legislative and executive branch in 23 states. Democrats will have full control of the legislative and executive branch in 15 states.
Population of the 24 fully R-controlled states: 134,035,267Population of the 15 fully D-controlled states: 120,326,393
Republicans have full control of the legislative branch in 30 states. Democrats have full control of the legislative branch in 18 states.
Population of the 30 fully R-controlled legislature states: 185,164,412Population of the 18 fully D-controlled legislature states: 133,888,565
This week, Andrew Cuomo’s star went down in flames. While the smoke clears, let’s take a moment to sit back and reminisce about the governor’s long history with ethical and legal violations.
Cuomo’s controversies regarding sexual harassment and nursing homes deaths were far from his first abuses of power. In fact, his administration has a long history of it, ranging from interfering with ethics commissions, to financial corruption.
In July 2013, Cuomo formed the Moreland Commission to investigate corruption in New York’s government. At first it was a success, giving Cuomo good PR. Yet as it went on there were rumors that, contrary to his claim that “Anything they want to look at they can look at,” Cuomo was interfering with the Commission’s investigations. There was friction within the Commission, itself with two factions forming: “’Team Independence’ and ‘Team We-Have-a-Boss’.”
Are There More Democrats Than Republicans In The United States
I have been thinking about the Democratic Party and whether or not its members are more numerous than the opposing faction.
Evidence to suggest this is the case:
This suggests that the partisan lean the American electorate is about D+4. I believe that it might be closer to D+5 now for various reasons and the fact that 2012 was the mean result. This can get a little bit fuzzy because of independents.
If we look at opinion polling, Gallup has collated party affiliation polls back to 2004. The most recent poll at the time of writing gives a D+11 advantage. Looking just at the net Republican/Democrat advantage, ignoring Independents, we can create the graph below – with positive percentages representing a Democrat lead, and negative percentages representing a Republican lead.
To give a theoretical perspective on this:
The Number Of People Each House Member Represents Will Change
The number of residents represented by each House member will mostly grow in 2022, though it will decrease per representative in some states.
Since Montana gained a representative, its two House members will now split the state’s population currently represented by Rep. Matt Rosendale, a Republican. The addition of another House seat means Montana’s House members will represent the least amount of people compared to House members in other states.
Delaware’s sole House district, currently held by Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, will be the largest in terms of population.
Republicans Score Big Gains In House Pelosi Barely Hanging On
In fact, not only did they do poorly across the board, but, as a Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee spokeswoman astutely noted, President Trump acted not as the Democrat-expected “anchor” but as a “buoy” for Republican legislative candidates.
That Democrats vastly misjudged the appeal of their radical agenda is crystal clear , and perhaps nowhere is that more evident than in the House races. Nancy Pelosi truly expected her party to pick up seats, yet it appears it’s the Republicans who are on track to accomplish the 10-15 seat gains the Democrats expected in their column.
Pelosi on Election Day: “Democrats are poised to further strengthen our majority.”
Pelosi today: “I never said that we were going to pick up” seats. pic.twitter.com/6s14zfA3LO
— Kevin McCarthy November 13, 2020
Despite AOC’s declaration that Democrats lost the House, they have so far managed to win 219 seats .
Powerline notes that Republicans have flipped 12 House seats: “RealClearPolitics notes that Republicans have picked up a net of 9 House seats. RCP projects that Republicans will pick up a net 10-13 seats when the counting is done.”
12 FLIPS in the House for the GOP!
CA39 Young Kim
— Students For Trump November 14, 2020
Census Data Sets Up Redistricting Fight Over Growing Suburbs
Workers erect the frame of a home being built in a new subdivision in Allen, Texas, Thursday, Aug. 12, 2021. The once-a-decade battle over redistricting is set to be a showdown over the suburbs, as new census data released Thursday showed rapid growth around the some of the nation’s largest cities and shrinking population in many rural counties.
The once-a-decade battle over redistricting is set to be a showdown over the suburbs, as new census data showed rapid growth around some of the nation’s largest cities and shrinking population in many rural counties.
From Texas to Florida, some of the biggest gains reported Thursday came in states where Republicans will control the redistricting process, but often in and around cities where Democrats have been faring well in recent elections.
The new detailed population data from the 2020 census will serve as the building block to redraw 429 U.S. House districts in 44 states and 7,383 state legislative districts across the U.S. The official goal is to ensure each district has roughly the same number of people.
But many Republicans and Democrats also will be trying to ensure the new lines divide and combine voters in ways that make it more likely for their party’s candidates to win future elections, a process called gerrymandering. The parties’ successes in that effort could determine whether taxes and spending grow, climate-change polices are approved or access to abortion is expanded or curtailed.