From Obama To Trump The Limitations Of A Policy Of Maximum Pressure And Sanctions
Since George W. Bushs election in 2000, the aim of CVID has been the cornerstone of US North Korean policy, up to Presidents Obama and Trump. Their lack of flexibility and the impact of regional factors, including the role of China, shows why these policies have failed in the past, and are likely to fail in the future. While North Korea has shown itself to be open to accepting a process of denuclearization, this would have to take place gradually, apply to the entire Korean Peninsula and include robust security guarantees from the US, specifically a peace treaty.
It should be reiterated that when the 1994 Agreed Framework was signed between the Clinton administration and North Koreas Kim Il-Sung , Bill Clinton agreed to build light water reactors to provide the electricity necessary for the countrys development. In exchange, the then-burgeoning nuclear program would be frozen. However, North Korea never actually agreed to this type of denuclearization. They would prefer dismantlement, which could involve downgrading and closing certain sites , rather than giving up nuclear capabilities entirely.
Un Ambassador Nikki Haley: Trump’s Speech Was ‘firm Response’ To Kim Jong Un
The president also took on Iran, dismissing the nuclear deal between Tehran and the U.S. and other world powers that lifted sanctions in exchange for Iran curbing its nuclear program. Trump ripped the deal as an “embarrassment” and vowed that this would not be the last the world hears about it “believe me.”
Iran’s future, Trump said, comes down to a choice between continuing on its current road or returning to the nation’s “roots as a center of civilization, culture and wealth.”
The speech was a nationalist appeal which had helped fuel Trump’s rise to the presidency in 2016 and that his administration has grappled with in its policy making, both foreign and domestic.
Trump said that under his watch the U.S. is a nation that the world would no longer take advantage of, be it diplomatically or on matters of trade.
While the president said he seeks strong trade ties around the world, that trade “must be fair and it must be reciprocal.”
While Trump promised to uphold America’s interests above all, “we also realize it’s in everyone’s interest to seek a future where nations can be sovereign, prosperous, and secure.”
Those complaints about lack of fairness and reciprocity are not new.
Trump left the Paris Climate Accord because he lamented it was unfair to U.S. workers. He’s railed against multilateral trade deals, like NAFTA and the Trans Pacific Partnership, that he feels don’t benefit the U.S.
“The potential of the U.N. is unlimited,” he said.
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While he has endured an inauspicious start to his 2024 presidential campaign and is ahead in some hypothetical matchup polls and behind in others, Donald Trump could still win the primary and general election. If victorious, he would preside over a world in disarray. Post-war Ukraine would have to be rebuilt. Putin could continue nuclear brinkmanship. Iran could have a nuclear weapon, China could put finishing touches on a plan to invade Taiwan, and North Korea could advance its nuclear arms program. Climate change could also get worse.
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Philip H Knight Chair In Defense And Strategy
There is a way ahead. Rather than pursue complete elimination of all of North Koreas nuclear capabilities, the Trump administration would aim for a more modest trade as at least an interim step. It would require North Korea to verifiably dismantle all capabilities it possesses to make more bombs in exchange for a partial lifting of the sanctions which have driven North Koreas economy into the tank.
The terms of such an agreement would follow logically from the February 2019 Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi, where the North offered to dismantle some of its nuclear production capability in exchange for a lifting of all sanctions, and where President Trump then walked. Washingtons new proposal would simply toughen and improve the terms of this kind of trade, requiring the dismantlement of all plutonium and enriched uranium infrastructure in exchange for a lifting of some of the sanctions.
Provided that verification is good and that some sanctions are retained even after such an agreement was struck, this would be a smart deal. It would not be perfect and would not achieve the complete denuclearization of North Korea that Trump initially insisted upon. But it would identify, and pursue, the intersection of what is realistic with what is desirable. It would reduce the risks of war and limit the damage done by nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia.
North Koreas Missile Tests
An increase in activity.In recent months, North Korea has conducted several missile tests, hinting at an increasingly defiant attitude toward countries that oppose its growing military arsenal. Heres what to know:
U.N. resolutions.Tensions on the Korean Peninsula started rising in 2017, when North Korea tested three intercontinental ballistic missiles and conducted a nuclear test. The United Nations imposed sanctions, and Pyongyang stopped testing nuclear and long-range missiles for a time.
Failed diplomacy.Former President Donald Trump met with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, three times between 2018 and 2019, hoping to reach a deal on North Koreas nuclear and missile programs. After the talks broke down, North Korea resumed missile testing.
An escalation.North Korea started a new round of testing in September 2021 after a six-month hiatus. It subsequently completed several tests, including the firing of multiple intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, that violated the 2017 U.N. resolutions.
New provocations.Mr. Kim has launched a record number of missiles and focused on developing new ones in 2022. The North Korean leader has said that a “neo-Cold War” is emerging and seems to see the geopolitical tide turning in North Korea’s favor.
But strong doubts remain over how rigorously China and Russia, the Norths two neighboring allies, will enforce the sanctions.
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But Would Sanctions And Negotiations Work
The United States has been struggling to find a way to deal with the nuclear threats from North Korea. So far, they have been unsuccessful in getting North Korea to back down. Some strategies that have been suggested include increasing military presence in the region, working with China to put pressure on North Korea, and using diplomatic means to try and get them to stop their nuclear program. However, none of these strategies have shown much promise so far.
One potential strategy that has not yet been tried is a preemptive strike against North Koreas nuclear facilities. This would be a risky move, as it could lead to a full-scale war between the US and North Korea. However, it could also be successful in preventing North Korea from launching any nuclear attacks.
Another possible strategy is to try and negotiate a freeze on North Koreas nuclear program. This would involve North Korea agreeing not to test or deploy any more nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions being lifted and aid being provided. This strategy would also be risky, but it could potentially avoid a full-scale war.
The United States needs to come up with a strategy soon, as the situation is quickly deteriorating. If they dont take action soon, North Korea could launch a devastating nuclear attack that could kill millions of people.
North Korea Has More Nuclear Weapons Than Ever What Should Biden Do
WASHINGTON Ever since North Korea began building nuclear weapons in the 1990s, the policy of the United States has been clear: Give up those bombs or face international isolation.
After three decades of sanctions, threats of force and diplomacy including President Trump’s theatrical summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un North Korea now has more nuclear weapons than ever, plus ballistic missiles that intelligence officials say could deliver a warhead to the U.S. And because of the global pandemic, the hermit kingdom has shuttered its borders, halting imports of food and medicine in a way more punishing than international sanctions could ever be.
That dangerous security threat is now in President Joe Biden’s lap, and his administration is expected to announce the results of a policy review on North Korea soon. Experts and people briefed on it say they expect that while Biden will not formally abandon the goal of “total denuclearization,” he will attempt to achieve the more limited aim of diminishing North Korea’s nuclear threat, while at the same time seeking to lower the visibility of a thorny foreign policy problem that has no neat solution.
The administration also plans to seek to reinvigorate the so-called trilateral relationship between the U.S., South Korea and Japan, according to a former Trump administration official who has been consulted.
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Work With North Korea
In North Korea, Trump would accept that Kim Jong Un will never give up his nuclear arsenal. This would be an unorthodox and unpopular stance but there is no hope that North Korea would disarm. In this strategy, Trump is likely to cancel all joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea and even consider reducing the number of American troops on the peninsula in an effort to get Kim Jong Un to halt further nuclear tests and reduce or freeze the number of warheads in his arsenal.
Where Is Us Diplomacy In India
As CCN.com reported earlier this week, Trumps voice has been suspiciously absent as tensions flare between India and Pakistan. Two nuclear states with immense military firepower at their disposal.
India launched airstrikes into Pakistan territory on Monday 21st February, breaching the de facto border for the first time in 40 years. The aggression came after Pakistan militants killed 40 Indians in a suicide attack.
Typically, the US has used its diplomatic leverage to act as a peacemaker in the region. Former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice famously pulled India and Pakistan back from the brink of war in 2008. She visited India to urge caution after the Mumbai attacks.
Neither Trump nor his secretary of state Mike Pompeo has shown much tact or diplomacy in addressing the tensions this time around.
Since elected, Trump has come down hard on Pakistan, slashing US military aid. Meanwhile, he has heaped praise on India and strengthened military deals. If war breaks out between the two nuclear nations, its clear where Trumps allegiance lies.
Meanwhile, China is lining up behind Pakistan, supplying the nation with nuclear technology and arms. Theres an epic power battle escalating behind the scenes and Trump appears clueless.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not represent those of, nor should they be attributed to, CCN.com.
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Rhetorical Escalation In August 2017
On August 8, 2017, President Donald Trump warned that North Korean nuclear threats would “be met with fire, fury and frankly power, the likes of which the world has never seen before,” after the mass media reported that a US intelligence assessment had found that the country had successfully produced a miniaturised nuclear warhead capable of fitting inside its missiles. President Trump also remarked of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un: “He has been very threatening beyond a normal state.” Within hours, North Korea responded by announcing that it was considering attacking U.S. military bases in the US territory of Guam.
On August 11, Trump : “Military solutions are now fully in place,locked and loaded,should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong Un will find another path!” Former U.S. Ambassador to the United NationsJohn Bolton and former U.S. Secretary of DefenseLeon Panetta stated that the standoff between the U.S. and North Korea over Pyongyang‘s nuclear weapons program was comparable to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Bob Woodward, in his 2020 book Rage, quoted Mike Pompeo as saying the national security team “never knew whether it was real, or whether it was a bluff”, and reported that Jim Mattis slept fully dressed due to concerns about a North Korean attack.
On August 15, the North Korean leader said he was delaying a decision on firing missiles towards the US Pacific territory of Guam while he waits to see what Trump does next.
Missile test over Japan on 29 August
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No Big Moves On Climate Change
Trump is a climate change skeptic so dont expect him to have a climate functionary like John Kerry to be in charge of anything. He would likely withdraw from any world accord that would limit fossil fuels or encroach on U.S. sovereignty. The climate could become worse in his second term, but do not expect major engagement in any global multilateral organization like the UN Conference of Parties in which the United States would have to curtail emissions that would hurt the countrys economy.
Nuclear And Missile Program
In addition to recent short-range missile tests, there is evidence of activity at North Koreas main nuclear site, leaving little reason to believe Kims promise that he has put the countrys nuclear program on hold. Pyongyang maintains that it has already developed a missile capable of reaching the mainland United States, but the continued nuclear activity could put more pressure on global powers to reach some sort of agreement. That includes China, which would also like to see the program ended, as it would remove an excuse for Washington to maintain troops in South Korea.
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How Will Ukraine Be Re
What would Trumps foreign policy be like in a second administration? Lets start with reconstruction of Ukraine assuming there is some sort of armistice that Moscow and Kyiv agree to by 2025 when Trump would be sworn in. Would Trump lead negotiations that could result in a peace treaty, or would it be a fragile ceasefire with a frozen conflict and perhaps a demilitarized zone in the Donbas region of Ukraine?
Trumps Delusions About North Korea May Incriminate Him
Trump told Real Americas Voice over the weekend that if it wasnt for him, the US wouldve been involved in a nuclear war with drum roll please North Korea. He seems to have some information about North Koreas nuclear capabilities that the rest of us do not.
Trump renewed his love affair with the North Korean dictator, saying I have a very good relationship with them.
We know, we know.
Speaking in his Trumpanzee English dialect he continued.
That was going to be a nuclear war. That wouldve happened if I didnt go in then, Im telling you if Obama had another year, a lot less than that, you would have ended up in a nuclear war with them and I got along with them great, he bragged.
North Korea does not possess nuclear weapons of any kind, according to publicly available intelligence. Perhaps we now know whose Top Secret nuclear weapon information he stole now?
Trump says the US wouldve had a nuclear war with N. Korea if Obama remained in office another year: If Obama had been in another year .. you wouldve had a nuclear war with them, and I got along with them great.
Ron Filipkowski
Lying is Trumps forte.
Playing the whataboutyou game, the cockwobbler is wigging out over the FBI search looking for all the top secret and classified documents he illegally kept, by attacking past presidents George H.W. Bush and Barack Obama.
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Will Biden Go Big Or Go Backward On North Korea Diplomacy
Upon taking office, Joe Biden will have to make crucial decisions on how to approach nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang and how to manage the U.S.-South Korea alliance. If he chooses wisely, his administration could prove transformational for the Korean Peninsula. If he errs, he risks being responsible for tragedy.
ofie
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Inside The Collapse Of Trumps Korea Policy
When it comes to Americas last-ditch effort to prevent North Korea from becoming a nuclear power, timing has been everything. Now times running out.
Earlier this month, at a NATO summit in London, Donald Trump that we have peace with North Korea and that he had a better personal relationship with Kim Jong Un than the dictator had with possibly anyone else in the world.
Hours later, I stood in a hotel ballroom in Washington, D.C., with U.S. and South Korean officials and North Korea experts at a reception hosted by the Korea Foundation, a public-diplomacy organization affiliated with the South Korean government. The presidents North Korea envoy, Stephen Biegun, spoke in subdued tones about how he felt the weight of the past year on his own shoulders, his actual slouched shoulders completing the picture of a diplomat repeatedly spurned. Obviously we have not made as much progress as we would have hoped at this point, but let me be absolutely clear: We have not given up, he stated, the platitude seeming to belie the message.
Washington and Pyongyang are returning so easily to the bad old days because the underlying issue that occasioned the 2017 showdownNorth Koreas development of nuclear weapons that can threaten the whole world, including the United States and its allieshas not dissipated one bit despite all the diplomacy, and has in fact become more grave.
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