Ohio: A Hillbillys Elegy
Primary Date: May 3The Republican Primary: J.D. Vance won a tense, expensive multi-candidate battle. All but one prospect pledged fealty to Trump, but Vance the venture capitalist, Hillbilly Elegy author, and populist favorite won the ex-presidents endorsement and then the primary, edging out early front-runner Josh Mandel and late surging Dolan.The Democratic Primary: Congressman and former 2020 presidential candidate Tim Ryan easiy won the Democratic nomination. Hes hoping the nasty GOP primary will help him overcome Ohios recent Republican trend.
Arizona: Republicans Defend Their Trifecta
Primary Date: August 2The Republican Primary: With two-term Republican governor Doug Ducey term-limited, the party he more or less held together is showing some fissures. A strong supporter of election-fraud fantasies, local Fox anchor Kari Lake, won Trumps endorsement early on and ran a full-on MAGA campaign. She led in all but one public poll, but a late surge in support on a wave of spending put Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, a self-funding real-estate developer and the budding favorite of more temperate Republicans, into second place. Former congressman Matt Salmon, who represents pre-Trump hard-core conservatism, was running third until he withdrew and endorsed Robson, as did Ducey and former Vice President Mike Pence. On primary night Robson led by a big margin, but election day votes pushed Lake to a narrow victory.The Democratic Primary: The longtime front-runner is the top state Democratic officeholder, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. Shes gained significant national exposure for her mocking but expert commentary on the bizarre The General Election: This will be a marquee race and one where Democrats have a rare opportunity to bust up the Arizona GOPs governing trifecta.
The Demographic Profile Of Voters And Nonvoters Is Very Different
The roughly half of Americans who voted in 2018 differ from the voting-eligible adult population in some key respects. There were sizeable, if familiar, demographic and political differences in who did and did not turn out.
Compared with citizens who did not vote, voters were older, more likely to be college educated, better off financially, more likely to be White Protestants or Catholics and more Republican in party affiliation and candidate preference. These differences are regular features of U.S. elections, as a comparison with voters and nonvoters in 2016 makes clear.
All citizen panelists whether voters or nonvoters were asked which U.S. House candidate they supported in the general election. Nonvoters tend to express more uncertainty about the choice, owing in large part to the fact that many of them pay little attention to politics. But among those who did express a preference, Democratic candidates led Republican candidates by 14 percentage points a larger margin than among voters .
Demographically, the contrast between voters and nonvoters is most stark on age, race, education and income. Voters in 2018 were considerably older than nonvoters: 31% of voters but just 10% of nonvoters were ages 65 and older. At the other end of the age spectrum, just 11% of voters were under 30 years of age 30% of nonvoters fell into this category. These gaps are quite similar to those seen in 2016.
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Democratic Ads Boosted Extremists In Republican Primaries Was That Wise
Helping election-denying, Trump-endorsed candidates may secure a more beatable general election opponent but some see it as a cynical and morally dubious move
When Peter Meijer voted to impeach Donald Trump, breaking with nearly all his Republican colleagues in one of his first acts as a newly elected member of Congress, Democrats praised him as the kind of principled conservative his party and the nation desperately needed.
But this election season, as Meijer fought for his political survival against a Trump-endorsed election denier in a primary contest for a Michigan House seat, Democrats twisted the knife.
It is part of a risky, and some say downright dangerous, strategy Democrats are using in races for House, Senate and governor: spending money in Republican primaries to elevate far-right candidates over more mainstream conservatives in the hope that voters will recoil from the election-denying radicals in November.
In Michigan, the plan worked for now. Meijer lost after the House Democrats official campaign arm spent $425,000to elevate Meijers opponent, John Gibbs, a former Trump administration official who asserted, falsely, that Joe Bidens victory was simply mathematically impossible.
It is impossible to know what impact the Democrats ad had on the race, but it cost more than the Gibbs campaign raised.
The voters in the Republican primary had agency, said Bill Saxton, the Democratic party chair in Kent county. They had two choices.
Wisconsin: A Trumpy Challenger In A Very Competitive State
Primary Date: August 9Republican Primary: For months the front-runner to take on incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers was Scott Walker protege Rebecca Kleefisch, who was Walkers Lieutenant Governor for eight years. But in June Trump endorsed self-funding construction executive Tim Michels, a self-styled outsider-businessman. Despite backing from Walker, Mike Pence and Ted Cruz, Kleefisch narrowly lost to Michels, who ran up a big vote in rural and small-town Wisconsin.General Election: Michels doesnt seem to be wacky enough to forfeit significant Republican support, but Evers has a united Democratic Party behind him in this deeply polarized state. This contest will be a national bellwether.
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Democrats Did Better In 2018 Than 2016 Among Men Young Voters
Among most groups, voting patterns in 2018 were generally similar to those in 2016, albeit with most reflecting somewhat greater support for Democratic candidates for the U.S. House compared with Hillary Clinton. Men, young people and secular voters were notably more supportive of Democratic candidates in 2018 than these groups had been in 2016.
Democratic gains among men resulted in some narrowing of the gender gap. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 points and Hillary Clinton won women by 15 , for a difference of 26 points. In 2018, women supported Democratic candidates by a similar margin but the GOP advantage among men vanished . Trump carried White men by 30 points in 2016 , a Republican advantage that shrank to just 12 points in 2018 .
Much as the gender gap shrank from 2016 to 2018, so did the marriage gap. Married voters in 2016 voted for Trump by a 55% to 39% margin but supported GOP House candidates in 2018 by only a 6-point margin, 52% to 46%. Unmarried voters were strongly Democratic in both years . Much of the decline in the marriage gap came from men. Trump won married men by a 30-point margin in 2016, but this group backed GOP House candidates by 12 points in 2018. Married women were evenly divided between the parties in both elections. Among unmarried voters, women were more supportive of Democratic candidates in 2018 than they had been of Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The Parties Coalitions 2018 Vs 2016
People who voted for Democratic vs. Republican candidates for the House in 2018 were quite different demographically, in ways consistent with previous elections including 2016. The Republican coalition is more likely to be older, male, White, somewhat less educated and Protestant or Catholic.
In 2016, men made up only 39% of Hillary Clintons voters. This share grew to 45% for Democratic House candidates in 2018. But other than a slight increase in the share of Republican voters ages 65 and older, there was little change in the respective age profiles of the two parties voters. Nearly half of those who voted for Democratic candidates were under 50 years of age, compared with almost a third of Republican voters.
Non-Hispanic White adults made up nearly nine-in-ten Republican voters , compared with just two-thirds of Democratic voters. Only 1% of voters who chose Republican House candidates were Black . Hispanics were 11% of the Democratic voter coalition, compared with 5% for the Republican coalition.
Half of Democratic voters in 2018 had a four-year college degree or more, compared with 35% of Republican voters. Voters with postgraduate degrees made up nearly a quarter of the Democratic electorate, compared with 13% among Republican voters. Combining this with the racial profile of the parties supporters, 57% of GOP voters were White adults with no college degree, compared with 28% among Democratic voters.
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The Republican Party General Policy And Political Values
The Republican Party is often referred to as the GOP. This abbreviation stands for Grand Old Party. Its logo is an elephant. The Republican Party is known to support right-leaning ideologies of conservatism, social conservatism, and economic libertarianism, among other -isms. Thus, Republicans broadly advocate for traditional values, a low degree of government interference, and large support of the private sector.
One main standpoint of the Republican Party platform is a strong focus on the family and individual freedom. Generally, the Republican Party therefore often tends to promote states and local rights. That means that they often wish for federal regulations to play a lesser role in policymaking. Furthermore, the GOP has a pro-business-oriented platform. Thus, the party advocates for businesses to exist in a free market instead of being impacted by tight government regulations.
Political Primaries: How Are Candidates Nominated
Article two, section one of the United States Constitution discusses the procedures to be followed when electing the president of the United States, but it does not provide guidance for how to nominate a presidential candidate. Currently, candidates go through a series of state primaries and caucuses where, based on the number of votes they receive from the electorate, they are assigned a certain number of delegates who will vote for them at their party’s convention.
Earlier party conventions were raucous events, and delegates did not necessarily represent the electorate. Mrs. J.J. McCarthy describes her convention experience:
I can picture … the great Democratic convention of 1894 at the old coliseum in Omaha… right now I can hear the Hallelluiahs of the assembled. Oh how I wish I had back the youth and the enthusiasm I felt that night, I jumped on a chair and ask that by a rising vote the nomination be made unanimous, how the people yelled, how the packed gallories applauded, it cheers an old man now to think about it.
Politics played a big part in the life of this town years ago. Campaigns were hot, and there was always a big celebration afterwards. … Votes used to be bought — that is before the secret ballot was adopted. Some sold ’em pretty cheap. I remember one old fellow who sold out to one party for a dollar — then sold out to the other for the same price.
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Few Defections From Party Affiliation
As they did in 2016, Republicans and Democrats voted almost unanimously for House candidates of their own party in 2018. Among those who do not initially identify with either party , Democratic candidates picked up 13 percentage points of support in 2018 over Clintons levels. Democratic candidates also made gains among Republicans and leaners who describe themselves as moderate or liberal .
Trump Tries To Remake Wisconsin In His Own Image
The race between Kleefisch and Michels had been a contentious one, with the two candidates battling it out for the right to face Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in a key November race.
Kleefisch was seen as an early favorite for the GOP nod until Michels late entry into the race. Michels self-funding, combined with the former presidents backing, turned the race competitive.
Trumps intervention mirrored other previous Republican gubernatorial primaries, in which the former president looked to upend in-state GOP power structures, like when he unsuccessfully campaigned against Gov. Brian Kemp in Georgia. In Arizona last week, Trumps pick for governor, former TV anchor Kari Lake, beat out Karrin Taylor Robson, who had the support of both outgoing GOP Gov. Doug Ducey the co-chair of the Republican Governors Association and Pence.
Trump also targeted Wisconsin state Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, backing a primary challenger running against one of the most influential state legislative leaders in the country. Trump has been angered by Vos refusal to push for decertifying the 2020 election results a legally impossible notion that has nevertheless gained traction on the right even as Vos has led the state legislature in funding an investigation into the states elections. Vos scored a narrow win Tuesday night.
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What Are The Duties Of The Lieutenant Governor
The lieutenant governor is mandated by the Wisconsin Constitution to serve as second in the line of succession. In the event that a sitting governor is no longer able to fulfill their duties or is removed from office, their lieutenant governor is sworn in.
The lieutenant governor’s chief responsibilities include serving on any commissions, boards, bodies or committees requested by the governor and functioning as the executive branch’s representative in those spaces, according to Wisconsin Statute 14.34.
The current salary for the lieutenant governor is $80,684, according to the Wisconsin Legislative Reference Bureau.
List Of United States Democratic Party Presidential Candidates
This is a list of major Democratic Party candidates for president. The Democratic Party has existed since the dissolution of the Democratic-Republican Party in the 1820s, and the Democrats have nominated a candidate for president in every presidential election since the party’s first convention in 1832. The list is divided into two sections, reflecting the increasing importance of primaries and caucuses following the changes stemming from the McGovernFraser Commission.
Only those candidates are included who were major contenders of the primaries and caucuses, and had held significant elective office or received substantial media coverage. Also, all those people are included who received at-least one delegate in the convention.
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Effect Of Republican Retirements
Indeed, 2020 was actually a Democratic-leaning year, with Biden winning the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points. So thereâs a good chance that states will be at least a bit redder in 2022 than they were in 2020.
That could make these retirements less of a blow to Republicans than they first appear. Whatâs more, by announcing their retirements so early, Burr, Toomey and Portman are giving the GOP as much time as possible to recruit potential candidates, shape the field of candidates in a strategic way in the invisible primary and raise more money for the open-seat campaign. And in Ohio specifically, Republicans still look like heavy favorites. Even in the Democratic-leaning environment of 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points, implying that its true partisan lean is probably even more Republican-leaning. Ohio is simply not the quintessential swing state it once was dating back to the 2014 election cycle, Democrats have won just one out of 14 statewide contests in Ohio â and that was a popular incumbent running in a blue-wave election year .
|âNathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight
Who Were The Candidates In The United States Presidential Election Of 1860
Abraham Lincoln of Illinois was the candidate of the generally antislavery Republican Party. The Democratic Party split in two. Sen. Stephen A. Douglas of Illinois, the champion of popular sovereignty policy, was the Northern Democrats candidate, and Vice Pres. John C. Breckinridge of Kentucky was the candidate of the Southern Democrats, whose campaign was based on the demand for federal legislation and intervention to protect slaveholding. Sen. John Bell of Tennessee was the candidate of the new Constitutional Union Party, the political home for former Whigs and other moderates who rallied to support the Union and the Constitution without regard to slavery.
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Arizona: Welcome To The Wild West
Primary Date: August 2The Republican Primary: For months the GOP primary front-runner was state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, the one candidate in the race who has been sharply criticized by Trump . Luckily for Brnovich, the MAGA vote was splintered between self-funding businessman Jim Lamon, Thiel Capital executive Blake Masters, and former National Guard adjutant general Mick McGuire. But on June 2 Trump endorsed Masters, a solid election-denier and all-around extremist, which helped him consolidate the vote of Trump loyalists. Masters ultimately edged Lamon in the primary while Brnovich finished a poor third.The General Election: Freshman senator Mark Kelly is another Democratic incumbent whos vulnerable because hes running in a highly competitive state in a good year for Republicans. The astronaut-turned-senator has been quietly building a big fundraising haul while Republicans battled to see who will take him on. Masters will help Kelly maintain a popular centrist image, while keeping Democrats energized.
What Are The Key Issues Of The Race
In both the Democratic and Republican primaries, candidates must overcome division before earning the opportunity to work with their party’s nominee for governor.
On the Democratic side, Rodriguez pointed to Her’s failed candidacies in Madison and contrasted his record with her own success running in a previously Republican-held district, highlighting her term in the Legislature as evidence of her vote-earning strength should she serve as Evers’ running mate.
“It does come down to experience, and it comes down to understanding what the Wisconsin electorate needs and wants right now,” Rodriguez said. “I live in Waukesha County, and that means that my friends, my neighbors, relatives, they’re not all Democrats. And so, there’s a way that I can communicate with the people of Wisconsin by coming from a community that’s a more purple community.”
Her defended his record in electoral politics and said his private sector managerial experiences prepared him for a role in the executive branch.
“Each time I ran, I learned a lot from both campaigns,” Her said. “The role of lieutenant governor is having executive leadership experience. I have pretty diverse executive leadership and having a governor that has that executive leadership is critical.”
Republicans, on the other hand, appear locked in a battle to establish themselves as the most unyielding conservative in the race.
Wisconsin is facing a potential stagnation in new economic growth.
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