Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Where Is President Trump In The Polls

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High Confidence In Biden Across Europe Asia

These new poll numbers are bad news for President Trump

In the first year of his presidency, Biden enjoys positive ratings from majorities in each of the publics surveyed. Overall, a median of 74% have confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing in world affairs.

Confidence is particularly high in the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Germany and Canada, where about eight-in-ten or more trust Biden when it comes to international affairs. He receives his lowest ratings in Greece, South Korea and Taiwan, though more than six-in-ten in each trust his handling of world affairs.

Widespread confidence in Biden contrasts starkly with views of his predecessor. Trust in the U.S. president was historically low in most countries surveyed during Trumps presidency. In many cases, however, the share who have confidence in Biden is not as high as the share who had confidence in Obama at the start or end of his presidency.

Germany is a good example of this pattern. In 2020, only 10% of Germans had confidence in Trump to do the right thing in world affairs . Once Biden took office, confidence in the U.S. president increased by 68 percentage points in Germany, but it is still lower there than the all-time high of 93% in 2009, Obamas first year in office. A similar trend can be seen in Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Canada, Australia, South Korea and Japan.


Question2 Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way The Republicans In Congress Are Handling Their Job

                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoApprove              23%    51%     6%    22%    24%    23%    18%    30%Disapprove           65     44     90     65     63     67     74     59DK/NA                12      5      4     14     13     11      8     11                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspApprove              20%    20%    27%    28%    27%    25%    26%    15%    24%Disapprove           58     69     66     66     62     65     64     76     62DK/NA                22     11      7      6     11     10     11      9     13

Only About A Third Say The Us Considers Their Interests In Foreign Policy

Despite the sharp uptick in favorable views of the U.S. and its president in 2021, most people surveyed continue to say the U.S. doesnt take into account the interests of publics like theirs when making international policy decisions. Across the 16 publics, a median of 67% say the U.S. does not take their interests into account too much or at all, while only 34% say Washington considers their interests a great deal or fair amount.

Across the European countries surveyed, there is a fair amount of variation in this assessment. As few as 16% in Sweden say the U.S. considers Swedens interests when making foreign policy, but roughly half or more in Greece and Germany do. In Germany, this represents a 32 percentage point increase since 2018, when this question was last asked. Despite this uptick, replicated across many of the European nations surveyed in both years, majorities in the region say the U.S. does not consider their interests when making foreign policy decisions.

Asian-Pacific publics also tend to say Washington discounts their interests, including 85% among New Zealanders. Around seven-in-ten in Australia and South Korea, as well as 54% in Singapore, concur that the U.S. does not consider their interests when making foreign policy.

Still, the predominant sentiment, going back to 2002 when the question was first asked, is that the U.S. does not consider the interests of countries like theirs. The election of Joe Biden has not fundamentally changed that.

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Question8 Would You Like To See Donald Trump Run For President In 2024 Or Not

                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoYes                  35%    78%     4%    35%    40%    30%    24%    53%No                   58     16     94     58     51     64     71     41DK/NA                 7      6      2      7      8      5      6      7                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspYes                  29%    37%    40%    37%    50%    37%    43%     9%    33%No                   63     56     55     57     44     57     51     89     58DK/NA                 8      8      5      6      6      6      6      2      8

Question20 Since The 2020 Presidential Election Do You Think That Donald Trump Has Been Undermining Democracy Or Protecting Democracy

Trump lashes out at Fox News for new poll showing him losing to ...
                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoUndermining          51%     8%    94%    48%    44%    56%    60%    35%Protecting           39     85      4     40     43     35     33     53DK/NA                11      6      2     12     12      9      7     12                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspUndermining          54%    52%    50%    49%    36%    50%    43%    83%    52%Protecting           28     38     44     44     50     42     46     11     35DK/NA                18      9      6      7     13      8     10      6     13

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The FBI raid on Donald Trumps estate gave the former president a 10-point boost over likely 2024 rival Ron DeSantis among GOP primary voters, according to a new poll.

Dozens of agents descended on Mr Trumps Florida home to execute a search warrant signed by a federal judge to look for top secret documents.

Attorney General Merrick Garland said he personally approved the raid, while Mr Trump criticised it and insisted he had done nothing wrong.

The FBI removed 11 sets of documents that were marked as classified. Some were marked classified/TS/SCI meaning top secret/sensitive compartmented information. Such information is only supposed to be viewed in a secure government facility, known as a SCIF Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility.


A new Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted following the FBI raid showed it had given Mr Trump a bump with Republican primary voters.

Trump Wins Cpac Straw Poll With More Than Two

Former President Trump won a comfortable majority of the vote in the Conservative Political Action Conferences straw poll, maintaining his position as the favorite for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Organizers announced at the convention in Texas that Trump won 69 percent of the vote, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 24 percent. Trump expanded his lead from the last CPAC straw poll in February, when he received the support of 59 percent of voting attendees to DeSantiss 28 percent.

Sen. Ted Cruz came in third place with 2 percent, while other choices received 1 percent support or less.

In a hypothetical poll without Trump in the race, DeSantis held the lead, with 65 percent. Donald Trump Jr. came in second place with 8 percent, Cruz came in third with 6 percent and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo came in fourth with 5 percent.


Despite DeSantis gaining attention as a possible alternative to Trump as the 2024 GOP nominee, Trump has consistently dominated CPACs informal straw polls since he left office last year.

Trump won the straw poll taken at CPAC in February 2021, about a month after his term ended, with 55 percent of the vote, followed by DeSantis with 21 percent. He received 70 percent support in the straw poll taken at a second CPAC convention last July.

DeSantis has meanwhile remained the consistent second-place finisher but has been unable to top 30 percent support.

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Bidens Foreign Policy Agenda Broadly Popular Across Advanced Economies

The Biden administrations foreign policies included on the survey enjoy widespread popularity. Of the four policies tested, the United States reentry into the World Health Organization garners the most approval, with a median of 89% saying they support the move. Support for this policy is most prevalent in Europe, where shares ranging from 86% to 94% approve of the U.S. returning to the organization. The move is also broadly popular in Canada and the Asia-Pacific.


Bidens decision to recommit to the Paris climate agreement is also very well received. A median of 85% approve of the U.S. rejoining the accord. Across Europe, about nine-in-ten or more across six countries polled favor the move, with respondents in the Netherlands, Germany and the UK following closely behind. Shares of roughly eight-in-ten or greater are also supportive in Canada and the Asia-Pacific region.

Rejoining the accord represents a reversal from former President Trumps decision to withdraw the U.S. from the agreement, a move that was met with widespread disapproval when Pew Research Center asked about it in 2017.

In addition to Bidens reversal of Trump-era withdrawals from international organizations and pacts, his plans for the U.S. to host a summit of democratic nations earns widespread approval. Across the 16 publics polled, a median of 85% express support for the convening, and in each, eight-in-ten or more say they favor the plan.

Republican Voters On Their Preferred Candidate For President

New polls reveal how Biden compares to Trump

If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Donald


Asked of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022. Respondents who answered someone else or did not offer a response are not shown.

The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.

While about one-fourth of Republicans said they didnt know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well-liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSantis similar to the 46 percent who said the same about Mr. Trump.

Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial: Mr. Trump held a 62 percent to 26 percent advantage over Mr. DeSantis among Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mainly receive their news from another source.

Mr. Trumps troubles inside his party leave him hamstrung in a matchup against an unusually vulnerable incumbent.


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New Marquette Law School Poll Finds Trump And Desantis Drawing Similar Support But Each Trailing Biden In Possible 2024 Presidential Matchups Election Confidence Covid Topics Also Surveyed

MILWAUKEE A Marquette Law School Poll survey of adults nationwide finds that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump run equally well against Democratic President Joe Biden in hypothetical 2024 matchups, although Biden leads both Republicans.

In a head-to-head matchup, DeSantis is supported by 33%, while Biden is supported by 41%. A substantial 18% say they would support someone else, and 8% say they would not vote. In a Trump versus Biden rematch, Trump receives 33% to Bidens 43%, with 16% preferring someone else and 6% saying they would not vote.

The survey was conducted Jan. 10-21, 2022, interviewing 1000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

While the election is substantially into the future, these results show that while Trump remains popular among Republican voters, another GOP candidate performs at least as well against Biden. There are similar patterns of support for both Republicans by party identification, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. In both pairings against Biden, there are significant percentages of all partisan categories saying they prefer someone else, not in the pairing, or wouldnt vote. This is especially pronounced among independents.


Table 1: DeSantis vs. Biden, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party ID
11 4

Table 3: Like to see Trump run in 2024, by party identification, Jan. 2022

Party ID
97

Favorability to DeSantis, Trump and Pence

Party ID
77 12
Party ID
91 9
Party ID
89 11

Some Concerns About Functioning Of Us Democracy

Majorities in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Sweden and the Netherlands are skeptical of how the U.S. political system functions. On the flip side, majorities in South Korea, Greece, Italy, Japan, Taiwan and Spain express at least some confidence in the American system of government.

However, even among publics where majorities think the U.S. political system works at least somewhat well, this confidence is lukewarm: At most, about a fifth say the American political system functions very well. In most places surveyed, the share who say this is smaller than one-in-ten.


While attitudes are mixed about how well the U.S. political system functions, publics in the advanced economies surveyed are largely skeptical that democracy in the U.S. is a good example for other countries to follow. Across all publics surveyed, no more than about three-in-ten say the U.S. is currently setting a good example of democratic values.

Rather, majorities or pluralities say American democracy used to be a good example but has not been in recent years, and up to about a quarter reject the idea that the U.S. has ever been a good model of democracy.

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Nearly All Say Relations With Us Will Stay The Same Or Get Better Over The Next Few Years

When asked whether relations with the U.S. will get better, worse or stay the same over the next few years, a median of 57% across the 16 publics say they will stay the same. While a continuation of current relations with the U.S. is the most common response, a median of 39% say relations will get better and only 5% say they will get worse.

The only place where a majority thinks relations with the U.S. will get better is Germany , where attitudes about the transatlantic alliance have become increasingly pessimistic in recent years. Half of Canadians also say relations with their southern neighbor will get better over the next few years.

In 2017, when this question was asked specifically about then-newly elected President Trump and his effect on bilateral relations, the most common answer was also that they would remain the same. But back then, few said that relations with the U.S. would improve under Trump, and significant portions of the population thought they would deteriorate, including 56% in Germany who said this.

Trump Poll Tests His 2024 Comeback Map

Latest 2020 Polling Shows President Trump Beating All Major Democrats

The former president is targeting five swing states that are pivotal to his hopes of winning back the White House.

11/23/2021 04:30 AM EST

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As Donald Trump builds out a presidential-campaign-in-waiting, his team is focusing on an electoral strategy that relies on recapturing the five states that flipped to Joe Biden in 2020.

The five states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin delivered a total of 73 electoral votes in 2020, enough to produce a decisive Electoral College victory for Biden. Since then, Trump has held four rallies, endorsed dozens of candidates and played a key role in shaping contests that could put his allies in top offices in those states in 2024.

Trumps shadow campaign also recently polled Trump-Biden matchups in the five states, all of which were decided in 2020 by fewer than 3 percentage points. According to the poll, a memo of which was obtained by POLITICO, the former president led Biden in Arizona by 8 percentage points, Georgia by 3 points, Michigan by 12 points, Pennsylvania by 6 points and Wisconsin by 10 points.

The poll numbers send a message to those who think Trumps grip on the Republican Party is loosening, said Tony Fabrizio, a top GOP pollster who conducted the surveys for Trumps super PAC, Make America Great Again, Again!

A spokesperson for Trumps political committees said the president is focused on the midterm elections.

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Key Findings From The Times/siena College Poll

The first poll of the midterm cycle.The New York Times has released its first national survey of the 2022 midterm cycle. Heres what to know:

Bidens struggles to win approval.President Biden is facing an alarming level of doubt from inside his own party, with 64 percent of Democratic voters saying they would prefer a new standard-bearer in 2024. Voters nationwide, meanwhile, gave Mr. Biden a meager 33 percent job-approval rating, and only 13 percent said the nation was on the right track.

Some in G.O.P. are ready to leave Trump behind.As the former president weighs another White House bid, nearly half of Republican primary voters would prefer someone other than Mr. Trump for president in 2024, with a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.

A tight race for Congress.Despite Mr. Bidens low approval ratings, Democrats are roughly tied with Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Among registered voters, 41 percent said they preferred Democrats to control Congress compared with 40 percent who preferred Republicans.

The class divide widens.Voters who said abortion, guns or threats to democracy were the biggest problem facing the country backed Democrats by a wide margin, as Republicans make new inroads among nonwhite and working-class voters who remain more concerned about the economy.

Still, many Republicans who favor someone else in a primary would nonetheless rally behind Mr. Trump if he won the nomination.

New Poll Asks Americans Whether Trump Should Face Charges Top Midterm Priorities

About half of Americans think former President Donald Trump should face criminal charges for his role in the deadly insurrection that took place at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. But far fewer roughly a quarter think Trump will actually be prosecuted.

Since hearings by the House committee investigating the attack began in June, new evidence and testimony have revealed how much Trump and members of his administration knew about the potential for violence, as well as the former presidents embrace of his armed supporters and his unwillingness to intervene when chaos overwhelmed the Capitol.

While a majority of Americans overall blame Trump for what happened that day, public opinion remains divided down party lines, according to this last poll. Nearly all Democrats 92 percent and a majority of independents but only about one in five Republicans agree.

Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

The final scheduled Jan. 6 hearing is slated to start Thursday at 8 p.m. ET and is expected to offer a minute-by-minute account of what Trump did and didnt do as the Capitol was overrun. In September, the committee is scheduled to release a report of its findings.

Meanwhile, federal prosecutors responsible for charging suspects related to the attack have also been watching the hearings. Unlike Congress, We do not do our investigations in public, Attorney General Merrick Garland said at the Justice Department Wednesday.

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