Monday, July 8, 2024

Can Anyone Beat Trump In 2020

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Elizabeth Warren Sherrod Brown Jeff Merkley

Electability’ won’t help Democrats beat Trump in 2020

As a democratic socialist, Senator Sanders has no real allegiance to the Democratic Party it often seems his populist movement would just as soon burn the party down. But there are other populists who are less antagonistic to the Democratic Party not to mention who actually belong to it.

If she runs, Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts senator, would instantaneously be the Democrats putative front-runner. Her anti-corporate agenda has made her a fund-raising powerhouse, and she seems to have found an ideological sweet spot between the centrist Clinton and populist Sanders factions. Additionally, thanks to the Nevertheless she persisted meme, shes become a feminist heroine.

But Ms. Warren, wholl be 71 in 2020, is an ambivalent politician a longtime law professor, she didnt run for office until 2012 and its not clear that she has the proverbial fire in the belly for a presidential bid.

Sherrod Brown, an Ohio senator, hails from a crucial swing state and has strong labor backing. Hes never seemed interested in a presidential run until now. A finalist in the 2016 Democratic veepstakes, he would be formidable in Rust Belt states. His politics match the mood, and while he might not have the raw talent of Senator Warren, hed be a strong Plan B.

What Are The Chances Well Know The Next President On Election Night

In addition, theres something to be said for the idea that its worthwhile to lock in a vote. If someone has already voted, theyre 100 percent likely to vote . What about someone who says theyre planning to vote on Election Day but hasnt done so yet? Theyre certainly not 100 percent likely to vote. Something could come up on Election Day they get stuck late at work, they blow out a tire, they feel sick, they dont bother because they think their candidate is losing. Indeed, even some of the people that pollsters deem to be the most likely voters dont wind up voting. If 2 percent of mail voters have their votes rejected, but 5 percent of likely Election Day voters dont wind up voting, then polls could underestimate Democrats.

Wait, wasnt this supposed to be a post about how Trump could beat his polls? Well, the point is just that mail voting creates additional uncertainty this year, and its easy to imagine how that could help out Trump or Biden.

Another potential source of anxiety for pollsters is the Hispanic vote. Polls show Trump having made significant gains relative to 2016 with Hispanic voters and to a lesser extent with Black voters, especially Black men. This is not enough to offset gains that Biden has made with white voters, however, including white voters both with and without a college degree.

Opinioni’ve Been Talking About Beto O’rourke Since 2017 He’s A 2020 Democratic Frontrunner For A Reason

Furthermore, there are two key demographics that swung for Trump in the 2016 election that Democrats need to win back in 2020: Independent voters and most importantly, suburban female voters. In the 2016 election, over 47 percent of Trumps voters were women a statistic that still shocks many pundits and analysts to this day. But due to the rhetoric and blunders of the White House, nearly 30 percent of those women now have a very poor impression of Trump according to a recent Pew Research Poll.

Worse than just their sentiments toward Trump, though, suburban women who catapulted him into the White House swung blue in the midterm elections. A USA Today analysis of the 2018 midterm election found more than 80 suburban counties and cities with high incomes and large number of college-educated voters voted more Democratic than in 2016. These gains were huge for Democrats, but this demographic could change again in 2020 if Republicans were to get smart about their candidates, rhetoric, and strategy, which no one expects.

These suburban and college-educated women who are increasingly aligning themselves with the Democratic party also describe themselves as mostly moderates looking for a government that compromises.

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Who Can Beat Trump Who Knows

The Democratic candidates are all debating a singular issue. New polls offer insights, not answers.

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By Giovanni Russonello

Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. Im Giovanni Russonello, your morning newsletter writer taking over your afternoon edition.

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At Wednesday nights Democratic presidential debate, the candidates bickered and battled over health care policy over Michael Bloombergs record and his right to represent a party that he only recently rejoined over the possible dangers of nominating a democratic socialist.

But in a way, it all seemed like just window dressing around one big question: Who has the best chance in November? Every policy critique seemed to lead inexorably back to this issue of electability.

In his very first comments at the debate, Mr. Bloomberg didnt just criticize Senator Bernie Sanderss plan to create a single-payer health care system he said it would cause Democrats to lose the general election.

I dont think theres any chance of the senator beating President Trump, Mr. Bloomberg said. You dont start out by saying Ive got 160 million people, Im going to take away the insurance plan that they love.

If thats a way to beat Donald Trump, wow, I would be very surprised, Mr. Sanders said.

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‘america Is In A Very Fragile Position’


Earlier, outside town, a pickup truck had kicked up dust plumes, rising as high as a barn, and a sign, just off route 69, said: “Vote – remove every Democrat.”

Johnson does not think Democrats should be in charge: “With there being questions in the election, it makes me question everything they stand for.”

He raises calves like his father did – and the way he hopes his two-year-old son, Monroe, will someday – and fears Democrats will sabotage the cattle industry.

“With all the rules that the Biden presidency wants to enforce on us, it makes me wonder – is my lifestyle going to be a viable one for my son, as it was for my dad, and to me?” he says.

Their wariness of the electoral process could lead to a deeper divide in the US, with some believing in the Biden White House and others rejecting it.

“America is in a very fragile position,” says Edward Foley, an election law scholar at Ohio State University in Columbus. He describes mistrust of the electoral process as “a real challenge to the very premise of the system”.

Foley recalls another moment in history when a battle broke out over an election. In 2000, the Republican candidate, George W Bush, won Florida, and its electoral votes, by a narrow 537 votes, clinching the election. Supporters of his Democratic rival, Al Gore, were distraught.

Today, however, Trump and his allies have cast serious doubt on Biden’s victory.

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From Opinion: The Trickiness Of Electability

In this new weekly feature, our colleagues from The New York Timess Opinion section will share expert analysis and perspectives from across the political spectrum. In todays installment, theres more to read about why electability is so unpredictable.

There is a home base that all the conversation about the Democratic presidential primary comes back to in the end: Primary voters prioritize, above all, someone who can defeat President Trump.

In any election that features an incumbent president, the main goal of the out-of-power party is to nominate a candidate well-suited to defeating the incumbent. Thats why both Republican Party elites and less enthusiastic conservative voters got behind Mitt Romney after a series of polls in 2011 showed he was the only Republican beating President Barack Obama in head-to-head matchups.

This year, Democrats desire to replace the incumbent has reached a fever pitch, arguably higher than its ever been for either party. But paradigm-shifting presidents have complicated the idea of electability, as Adam Jentleson, a former deputy chief of staff for Senator Harry Reid, pointed out this week in an Op-Ed.

Mr. Obama won his first election despite being a black man who had admitted to using cocaine, who was caught on tape calling working-class whites bitter people who cling to guns and religion, and who sat in the pews with a pastor who declared, God damn America, Mr. Jentleson said.

Talmon Joseph Smith

Trump Seeing Higher Approval Ratings

Still, Barrack noted the economic progress under Trump’s tenure, which has seen U.S. unemployment at its lowest levels since 1969 and the stock market hit record highs. January saw employers add 225,000 jobs nationwide, the Labor Department reported Friday, and consumer confidence is up particularly among independent voters, an important constituency that could prove decisive come November.

And rather than being hit by the impeachment proceedings, Trump’s approval rating has ticked up from 47% to 49%, according a recent poll by Hill/HarrisX conducted after he was acquitted on impeachment charges. The president also reached a 49% approval rating in a Gallup poll last week, the highest recorded by Gallup since he assumed the presidency.

“I think President Trump has done a great job, he has aligned his power base producing great results for his constituency,” Barrack said. “But America’s divided, as the world is divided. So it’s never over till it’s over.”

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Dwayne Johnson Oprah Winfrey

David Axelrod, Mr. Obamas political guru, likes to say that voters usually seek the remedy, not the replica of the incumbent. When you consider how much political logic has been turned on its head, perhaps Democrats will nominate a Trumpian figure of their own. Enter the Rock, who inspired the formation of a political action committee to support his presidential aspirations after he announced his intention to run for the White House .

Or what about Oprah Winfrey? Shes dipped her toe into politics before, backing Mr. Obama during the 2008 Democratic primaries. And after the conservative columnist John Podhoretz recently her the Democrats best hope in 2020 , Ms. Winfrey seemed open to the idea. She tweeted the article with the message to Mr. Podhoretz: Thanks for your vote of confidence!

Just Call Trump A Loser

Smerconish: Why Trump can beat Biden in 2024

His record is clear. Some nervy Republican challenger should say so.

Lets assume Donald Trump runs again for president in 2024. Yes, I know, caveats, caveats. Republicans say its too early to discuss 24. A lot can change between now and then. Maybe Trump wont actually run. Maybe hes just teasing the possibility to milk the attention. Apparently, he likes attention.

But if Trump does decide to inflict himself on another race, he will enter as the clear Republican favorite, enjoying a presumption of invincibility inside the GOP. This has engendered a belief that anyone who challenges Trump must tread lightly, or end up like the roadkill that his primary opponents became in 2016.

That notion is outdated.

Trumps bizarre and enduring hold over his party has made it verboten for many Republicans to even utter publicly the unpleasant fact of his defeatsomething they will readily acknowledge in private. I caught up recently with several Trump-opposing Republican strategists and former associates of the president who argued this restraint should end. The best way for a Republican to depose Trump in 2024, they said, will be to call Trump a loser, as early and as brutally as possibleand keep pointing out the absurdity of treating a one-term, twice-impeached, 75-year-old former president like a kingmaker and heir apparent. In other words, dont worry about hurting Special Boys feelings.

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Who Can Beat Trump In 2020

A field guide for Democrats desperate to paint the White House blue.

Illustration by Alex Merto

Illustration by Alex Merto

Every senator looks in the mirror and sees a future president. But these days, for Democrats at least, its not just members of Capitol Hills upper chamber who are picturing themselves sitting in the Oval Office. Congressmen, governors, mayors, even people who hold no elected office men and women at seemingly every rung of the political ladder, including no rung at all are suddenly eyeing the White House.

For this, Democrats can thank Donald Trump. His election in 2016 showed that the barriers to entry to the White House werent nearly as formidable as political professionals once assumed. More important, Mr. Trump at the moment seems eminently beatable, with an approval rating hovering just south of 40 percent. No other president in the era of approval polling has been this unpopular at this point in his presidency.

A result is that the Democratic presidential field in 2020 may be even bigger than the unwieldy Republican 17-member parade in 2016. Indeed, a recent informal survey of Democratic strategists produced a list of more than 30 fellow party members who are or who, in the minds of these insiders, should be thinking about running for president in 2020.

Yes Of Course Donald Trump Can Win In 2024

When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably and immediately ask some version of this question: Is he going to run again? And can he win?

The he there just in case youve spent the last six years on another planet is Donald Trump.

And the answers to those questions are probably yes and definitely. As in, yes, Trump is probably going to run for president again in 2024. And, yes, he would have a very real chance of winning.

Lets take the second half of that question first. A new Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump and President Joe Biden each at 45% among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, results that are largely unchanged since the last time WSJ asked the question in November.

The simple fact is that if the 2020 presidential race was re-run today, it would effectively be a pure toss up.

Which, if you think about it, makes sense. While Biden took more than 300 electoral votes, his margins in a series of swing states like Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were decidedly narrow. And had those states gone for Trump, he would have almost certainly been reelected.

Now, that is putting the cart before the horse. So, lets return to the first question: Will Trump run?

If you believe him, then yes.

But, its true.

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Seth Moulton Tim Ryan Christopher Murphy

Biden might as well hang it up  nobody can beat Trump in 2020 (letters)

Millennials are expected to surpass baby boomers as the largest generation of eligible voters in 2020. So it would only make sense for a few politicians who might still get carded to run themselves.

Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts congressman, is a charismatic, intelligent Iraq war veteran who isnt afraid to call out party elders like Nancy Pelosi. Hes only 38, and its almost certainly too soon for him to have much of a chance at winning the nomination in 2020, but it doesnt hurt to put his name into the 2020 veepstakes.

At 44, Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio doesnt make the cut of being a millennial himself, but hes fashioned himself as a fresh face on Capitol Hill and he thinks he has an economics-focused message for members of that generation, especially those who live in working-class cities like his hometown near Youngstown.

Christopher Murphy, a 44-year-old Connecticut senator, is casting his message at a different segment of millennials those who live on Twitter, where he offers running political commentary, or listen to podcasts like Pod Save America, where hes made several appearances. His and Mr. Ryans campaign slogans write themselves: Youre Only as Old as You Feel.

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Desantis With Huge Campaign War Chest

DeSantis has appeared at political events around the country in recent months hosting fundraisers and has reportedly amassed a huge campaign war chest of more than $100 million. His donors include some of the nations wealthiest Republicans, including some who previously backed Trump, according some media outlets.

But analysts say DeSantis, who is only 43 years old, may prefer to sit this out the 2024 election if Trump chooses to run, rather than clash with the former presidents formidable grass roots base, known as MAGA, after his campaign slogan, Make America Great Again.

Theres no question that he dominates the Republican field and he will continue to dominate the Republican field. Its his nomination to lose, said Ruddy. DeSantis is a rising star. People like him. But, I dont think at the end of the day hes going to defeat Trump in a primary, he added. While DeSantis may have attracted some of the big donors, these elections are not decided by Washington, or Wall Street, or the insiders, they are decided by the grass roots in places like Iowa and South Carolina, and you can only imagine Trumps support there, he added.

Not all Republicans agree, especially those who battled some of Trump’s policies.

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