The Role Of The Supreme Court
President Donald Trumps two appointments to the Supreme Court, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, gave Republican-appointed justices a majority on the nations highest court.
Anti-abortion advocates see the courts makeup as a chance to weaken or overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 court ruling that legalized abortion.
They want to make hay while the sun shines and pass as much of their pet legislation as they can while they have the opportunity, said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines.
Some state lawmakers and activists have said theyve specifically written legislation to spark a legal challenge that will end up before the Supreme Court.
Anti-abortion marchers rally at the Supreme Court during the 46th annual March for Life in Washington, on January 18, 2019. Some state lawmakers have said the bills they are pushing aim to ultimately overturn Roe v. Wade. Photo by Joshua Roberts/Reuters
The current focus on overturning Roe v. Wade has parallels to the early 1990s, when the court had eight justices who were appointed by Republican presidents. In 1992, the court reaffirmed Roe v. Wade in the case Planned Parenthood v. Casey, which questioned a Pennsylvania law that implemented a number of restrictions on abortions. The court upheld most of the provisions but also established that state rules cannot impose an undue burden on a woman seeking an abortion before the fetus attains viability.
Forty Percent Of Young Americans Expect Their Lives To Be Better As A Result Of The Biden Administration; Many More Feel A Part Of Bidens America Than Trumps
By a margin of 2:1, young Americans expect their lives to become better under the Biden administration, rather than worse ; 25% tell us that they dont expect much of a difference. We found significant differences based on race and ethnicity.
- Whites: 30% better, 28% worse
- Blacks: 54% better, 4% worse
- Hispanics: 51% better, 10% worse
Forty-six percent of young Americans agreed that they feel included in Bidens America, 24% disagreed . With the exception of young people living in rural America, at least a plurality indicated they felt included. This stands in contrast to Trumps America. Forty-eight percent reported that they did not feel included in Trumps America, while 27% indicated that they felt included . The only major subgroup where a plurality or more felt included in Trumps America were rural Americans.;
- 39% of Whites feel included in Bidens America, 32% do not ; 35% of Whites feel included in Trumps America, 41% do not .
- 61% of Blacks feel included in Bidens America, 13% do not ; 16% of Blacks feel included in Trumps America, 60% do not .
- 51% of Hispanics feel included in Bidens America, 12% do not ; 17% of Hispanics feel included in Trumps America, 55% do not .
Gender And Marital Status
The Democratic Party has a significant advantage with women. Thirty-seven percent of women affiliate with the Democratic Party, giving them a sizable advantage over the 24 percent who identify as Republicans. Marriage tends to have a significant impact on how a woman votes. Unmarried women vote Democrat about 62 percent of the time, while married women tend to be evenly split between the parties.
Exactly 27 percent of men affiliate with each party, with 43 percent declaring themselves Independent. Gays, lesbians and bisexuals support Democratic candidates around 70 percent of the time.
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Voter Turnout In 2020 And Beyond
The new census data makes plain that the 2020 election was record-breaking in terms of the magnitude of its voter turnout. Yet there are two aspects of this turnout which need to be emphasized. One is the sharp rise in the turnout among white non-college votersa group that has strongly favored Republicans. The other is the accentuated turnout among young people and people of colorrepresenting the increasing influence of voters who heavily lean toward Democratic presidential candidates.
Both of these groups exerted countervailing forces on the results of the 2020 election, leading to close popular vote totals in a handful of states. However, the underlying demographics of the nations voter population show that Democratic-leaning voter populations are on the rise in both fast-growing and slow-growing parts of the country.
This raises the question as to whether even greater turnout among white non-college voter groupsor Republican efforts to alter voting requirements in their favorwill be enough to counter the influence of young voters and voters of color in future presidential elections.
Black Hispanic And Asian Voters Remain Overwhelmingly Democratic
There are sizable and long-standing racial and ethnic differences in partisan affiliation, and they have shifted only modestly in recent years.
White voters continue to be somewhat more likely to affiliate with or lean toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party .
Since 2010, white voters have been more likely to align with the GOP than with the Democrats. However, the share of whites identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic has edged upward . This growth is attributable to a slight increase in Democratic-leaning independents, rather than a rise in Democratic affiliation.
While black voters remain solidly Democratic, identification with the Democratic Party has declined modestly in recent years: About two-thirds of African Americans have identified as Democrats in the last several years, down slightly from the first half of Barack Obamas presidency, when about three-quarters affiliated with the Democratic Party.
There is a similar balance of partisanship among Asian American registered voters: 65% identify with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic, compared with 27% who identify as or lean Republican.
In 1998 , 53% of Asians identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party and 33% identified with or leaned toward the Republican Party. .
A gender gap in partisan affiliation and leaning is seen across racial and ethnic groups.
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Republican Women And Abortion
An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds that men and women hold similar views on abortion overall, but Republican women are more opposed to abortion rights than Republican men.
SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
A majority of Americans support keeping Roe v. Wade in place. Thats the finding of a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll on abortion. And most favor allowing abortion in at least some situations. But there is one group that stands out for opposing abortion Republican women. NPRs national correspondent Sarah McCammon joins us. Sarah, thanks so much for being with us.
SARAH MCCAMMON, BYLINE: Youre welcome.
SIMON: We certainly have had a lot of demonstration about the heavy partisanship on the abortion issue. Tell us about how gender comes into this discussion.
MCCAMMON: Well, its not in the way that a lot of people might think. Theres often a lot of rhetoric about a so-called Republican war on women in the context of abortion debates, or we hear the idea that efforts to restrict abortion rights are about men trying to control womens bodies. But when it comes to public opinion, many polls bear out the idea that men and women actually have very similar views on abortion. In our poll, 60% of women and 54% of men describe themselves as pro-choice. And I talked to Barbara Carvalho, the director of the Marist Poll. She says thats a pretty insignificant difference.
SIMON: Sarah, what do you think accounts for the difference between Republican men and women on this issue?
Supported Members Of Congress
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The organization has quoted the Republican Partys Statement of Principles, suggesting that this encompasses the option to choose abortion: the Party wants n America with a smaller less burdensome government that trusts its people to decide what is best for them n America where freedom of expression, individual conscience, and personal privacy are cherished and respected.
It has called for the Human Life Amendment to be removed from the abortion plank and that the platform reflect real policy that represents a common ground approach where both sides of the GOP can work together to make abortion unnecessary without taking away womens rights.
RFC has successfully gotten language into the platform that encourages Republicans to follow their conscience on this and other divisive issues. They do not ask those who disagree with them to leave the GOP but rather to join with them to return to the real core Republican values that call for smaller government and protecting personal freedom. They believe this should extend to both men and women. Ultimately they believe in a GOP that helps get the government out of the boardroom and the bedroom.
In that light, Republicans for Choice has suggested changes to the Republican National Platform with regard to societal attitudes towards gay and lesbian issues.
California Voter And Party Profiles
NOTES: Likely voters are registered voters meeting criteria on interest in politics, attention to issues, voting behavior, and intention to vote. For a full description of these criteria and regional definitions, visit www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf. For race and ethnicity, results are presented for Latinos, non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic Asian Americans, non-Hispanic African Americans, and non-Hispanic other race and multiracial adults.
Sources: Seven PPIC Statewide Surveys from September 2019 to July 2020, including 11,725 adults and 7,243 likely voters. California Secretary of State, Report of Registration, August 2020. US Census Bureau, 20142018 American Community Survey.
With The Population Diversifying Non
The voter population for presidential elections continues to change in its demographic makeup. This relates both to turnout and to the changing shifts in the nations overall population. Because of the rising growth rates of nonwhite race and ethnic groups nationally and the increased educational attainment of younger voters, the share of all voters identifying as non-college white continues to shrink. Thus, for the first time in a presidential election, white voters without college degrees comprised less than two-fifths of the voter population.
These changes look quite different from 2004, when non-college white voters comprised more than half of the voter population and nonwhite minorities comprised only one-fifth. Since then, the formers share dropped to 39.7%; the share of white college-educated voters increased modestly, from 27.7% to 31.3%.; and the share of nonwhite voters rose to 29%, almost equaling that of white college graduates.
The shift in the race-ethnic makeup of the populationespecially the younger populationis evident when looking at voters in the past five presidential elections. During this period, younger generations of voting-age citizens have become more racially diverse. In 2020, for the first time, at least 10% of the total voter population identified as Latino or Hispanic, as did 15% of voters below age 40. The white share of the under-age-40 voter population declined by 10 points from 2004 to 2020, to 64% .
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Which Political Party Is The Most Successful In Usa
In the United States, there has usually only been two main political parties. Since the 1860s, these two main parties have been the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party has the most seats in the House of Representatives while the Republicans and Democrats split the Senate at 50 Senators each.
A Plurality Believe History Will Judge Trump As A The Worst President Ever; Less Than A Quarter Of Young Americans Want Trump To Play A Key Role In The Future Of Republican Politics; Young Republicans Are Divided
Thirty percent of young Americans believe that history will judge Donald Trump as the worst president ever. Overall, 26% give the 45th president positive marks , while 54% give Trump negative marks ; 11% believe he will go down as an average president.
Twenty-two percent of young Americans surveyed agree with the statement, I want Donald Trump to play a key role in the future of Republican politics, 58% disagreed, and 19% neither agreed nor disagreed. Among young Republicans, 56% agreed while 22% disagreed, and 21% were neutral. Only 61% of those who voted for Trump in the 2020 general indicated their desire for him to remain active in the GOP.
If they had to choose, 42% of young Republicans consider themselves supporters of the Republican party, and not Donald Trump. A quarter indicated they are Trump supporters first, 24% said they support both.
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Ies See Big Demographic Changes Despite Overall Static Split
WASHINGTON The last decade was one of the most politically consequential in recent memory, one in which partisan divisions dominated. But under the surface, an enormous churn is redefining and re-sorting the two major parties.
A look at the numbers helps explain the larger story.
By events alone, the decade was tumultuous from the Republican tsunami in 2010 to the rise of Donald Trump in 2016 and the Democratic correction in 2018. And yet, when you look at the percentage of voters who identify at a Democrat or Republican, the picture is one of stability.
In 2010, the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll found that 42 percent of registered voters identified as Democrats, while 37 percent identified as Republicans. At the end of 2019, the figures showed 42 percent were Democrats and 37 percent were Republicans. Unchanged.
In other words, Barack Obama and Donald Trump may each be transformative presidents in their own ways, but viewed from 30,000 feet, the net effect of their time in office on the political landscape has been negligible.
Look a little closer, however, and the picture is much more fluid.
Start with education. The last decade has seen noteworthy shifts among voters with and without a college degree.
Those are dramatic swings among big parts of the electorate that have impacts across the country. Its a big part of the reason Democrats have increased their margins in highly educated urban areas.
Gallup: Percentage Of Pro
A new Gallup survey out today finds the percentage of Americans who identify them selves as supporting legalized abortion has dropped to a record low.
The 41% of Americans who now identify themselves as pro-choice is down from 47% last July and is one percentage point below the previous record low in Gallup trends, recorded in May 2009, the polling firm noted. On the other hand, 51 percent of Americans call themselves pro-life, one percentage point away from the record high.
The percentage of Americans identifying themselves as pro-life has trended higher since 1995, when the partial-birth abortion debate began in earnest and ultrasound technology made it so pictures of unborn children were the first baby pictures most parents saw. Gallup has found the pro-life position significantly ahead on two occasions, once in May 2009 and again today and the number of pro-abortion Americans has steadily dropped.
Gallup says the decline in Americans self-identification as pro-choice is seen across the three U.S. political groups with Republicans increasingly becoming pro-life.
Since 2001, the majority of Republicans have consistently taken the pro-life position, but by a gradually increasing margin over pro-choice. That gap expanded further this year, with the percentage of Republicans identifying as pro-life increasing to 72% from 68% last May, and those identifying as pro-choice dropping to 22% from 28%, Gallup noted.
Mellman: The Rise Of The Pro
Cold War babies like me were taught to abhor communism as children.
My earliest memory of such instruction came from a teacher who raged against what she claimed was communisms demand that people inform on family, friends and neighbors, turning them over to the secret police for actions or views critical of the regime.;;
I shudder to think what those now deceased teachers would say about Republicans in Texas, and elsewhere, encouraging citizens to intervene in their neighbors most intimate decisions by suing them for giving a friend a ride to an abortion clinic or being a woman who received one.
Joe BidenSocial media making political polarization worse: reportBiden and UKs Johnson to meet for talks this month: reportToyota, Honda knock union-made EV incentive in Dems spending packageMORE called it vigilantism. In my youth, it wouldve seemed a form of creeping totalitarianism.;
This disastrous policy, designed to outlaw abortion while enabling recent Republican Supreme Court justices to parry well-founded accusations of perjury in their confirmation hearings, is a dagger pointed at the political heart of the GOP.
Though it was never counted as one of the most important problems facing the country , abortion played a lead role as culture developed into our central line of political cleavage.;
In recent years, two facts emerged clearly: First, the vast majority of Americans are what the political class would call pro-choice .
Public opinion is clear.;;
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Reprinted with permission from DC Report
The overwhelming failure in the recall of California Gov. Gavin Newsom should send a powerful message to those Republicans who think their future lies with Donald Trump and Trumpism. It doesn’t.
That’s better than the record margin by which Newsom won in 2018. He won that race with just under 62 percent of the vote. It also equals the share of California votes for Biden against Trump in 2020.
The recall vote is a clear repudiation of the Trumpian tactic of trying to disrupt and delegitimize government when anyone but a Trumper wins the popular vote. Havoc will continue, but it can be defeated always if enough sensible Americans cast ballots.
Trumpism isn’t dead, not yet. But it’s not attracting new adherents, either. That’s because all it offers is anger, the lethal rejection of medical science and cultish devotion to a deeply disturbed con artist who just makes stuff up like his very recent delusional claim of being rescued on 9/11 by two firefighters.
Trumpism is not an ideology, just political masturbation.
And no one in America is more captured by self-love than Donald Trump.
In spring, it looked like Newsom could become the third governor in American history to be recalled because rank-and-file Democrats weren’t paying attention. Neither were the independents, whose numbers equal those of Republicans in California.
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