Republicans In States Hold Overwhelming Control In Post
As the Democratic Party engages in a highly amusing circular firing squad over their shock loss of so many House seats, the impact of Republican gains at the state level doesnt seem to have fully dawned on them. Or if it has, they are doing what they do best, kicking that particular can down the road, a decade down the road.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, where they appear of late to be better at Monday morning quarterbacking than at analyzing polls and predicting election outcomes, they have on the enormous gains Republicans made at the state level and how that will impact redistricting.
Republicans won almost every election where redistricting was at stake.
Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats or 43% of the entire U.S. House.
Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17%.
These numbers are quite different than those predicted byFiveThirtyEight on October 27th: Our analysis found that 117 congressional districts are likely to be drawn by Republicans, while 47 are likely to be drawn by Democrats.
Here are the key 2020 races noted by FiveThirtyEight post-election:
Democrats are apparently preparing to fight and are interested in fair maps and an actual battle of ideas.
Democrats Got Millions More Votes So How Did Republicans Win The Senate
Senate electoral process means although Democrats received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, that does not translate to more seats
The 2018 midterm elections brought significant gains for Democrats, who retook the House of Representatives and snatched several governorships from the grip of Republicans.
But some were left questioning why Democrats suffered a series of setbacks that prevented the party from picking up even more seats and, perhaps most consequentially, left the US Senate in Republican hands.
Among the most eye-catching was a statistic showing Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races, and yet still suffered losses on the night and failed to win a majority of seats in the chamber.
Constitutional experts said the discrepancy between votes cast and seats won was the result of misplaced ire that ignored the Senate electoral process.
Because each state gets two senators, irrespective of population, states such as Wyoming have as many seats as California, despite the latter having more than 60 times the population. The smaller states also tend to be the more rural, and rural areas traditionally favor Republicans.
This year, because Democrats were defending more seats, including California, they received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, but that does not translate to more seats.
The rise of minority rule in America is now unmistakable
How Many Democrats How Many Republicans
I want to follow up on my last post regarding how variations in poll results are often due to differences in how pollsters construct their samples. The previous post talked primarily about whether pollsters were sampling likely or registered voters. Obama, I suggested, polled better among registered voters. Today I want to look at another decision pollsters must make: whether to weight their sample by party identification and, if so, what weights to use. We know that whether one considers oneself a Democrat or a Republican is the biggest single determinant of how someone will vote. Not surprisingly, people tend to vote for the candidate who shares their party identification. So a poll that includes 40% Democrats in its sample is likely to have more favorable results for Obama than one that includes 35% Democrats, all other things being equal. Ditto for McCain and variations in the number of Republicans sampled.
To see how this makes a difference, consider two respected national polls that came out yesterday. CBS/NY Times came out with their monthly national poll that has Obama up 49-44, with 6 undecided.
Rasmussen, meanwhile, has the race tied, 48-48% in its latest tracking poll.
I show you these numbers to give you an idea of what it means to weight by party. But why does it matter? Compare the CBS weighting to what Rasmussen calculates when they weight by party.
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Most Democratic And Republicancounties In Alabama
Which Alabama counties have the most Democrats and which has the most Republicans?
It turns out even the Reddest of Red states has a drop of Blue.
24/7 Wall Street recently used voting data and a review of current and historical representation in Congress to determine the political leanings counties across the country. That index was then used to determine the most Democratic and most Republican counties in each state.
Alabama is a solid Republican state but the analysis found pockets of Democratic support. For example, in 2012, 61 percent of Alabama voters opted for Republican candidate Mitt Romney, one of the highest shares the losing candidate received from any state. In Greene County, however, 85 percent of the voters cast their ballot for President Obama. Whats more, Greene County helped send a Democrat to the U.S. House of Representatives in each of the last five Congressional elections.
Thats enough to make Greene County the most Democratic county in Alabama.
And what about the most Republican County? There is a lot of competition for that title but the recognition goes to Blount county, according to 24/7 Wall Street. In 2012, more than 86 percent of voters cast their ballot for GOP nominee Romney, the highest share of any county in Alabama. Also, county residents are represented in the House by the 4th and 6th Congressional Districts, both of which are held by Republicans.
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Republican Party In Alabama
Jeff Frederick, University of North Carolina at PembrokeCivil WarAlabamaReconstructionslavesUnionistsDemocraticWorld War IIWilliam Hugh SmithgovernorDavid P. LewisGuy HuntDon SiegelmanThe Republican Party EmergessecessionMontgomeryBenjamin TurnerSelmaJames T. RapierJeremiah HaralsonDallas CountywaterwayrailroadKu Klux KlanRobert LindsayBourbonsPost-Reconstruction Republican PartyGreenbackersPopulistscoalBlack BeltBirminghamagricultureReuben KolbThomas Goode Jonessegregation1901 state constitutionAlabama Republicans and Presidential PoliticsNew DealDixiecratGeorge WallaceParty Realignment and Republican AscendancyJames D. MartinLister Hillcivil rightscottonWinton BlountJeremiah DentonFob JamesRichard ShelbyLurleen WallaceBob RileysRoy MooreRobert BentleyShelby CountyAdditional Resources
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Biden Administration: Here’s Who Has Been Named So Far
Return of the bipartisan gangs
After months of stalemate over the size and scope of a coronavirus relief package in the closing weeks of the last Congress, a group of centrists from both parties, led by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, unveiled a $900 billion compromise plan that became the basis for the legislation that ultimately was approved by the House and Senate and signed by President Trump.
Manchin has said he hopes that model can translate into efforts in 2021.
Other Republican moderates such as Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska who helped on the COVID-19 aid package could also serve as powerful players if they decide to work across the aisle.
Progressives push for Senate rule changes
Liberal Democrats have pressed to get rid of the legislative filibuster so that they can pass major health care or environmental bills with a simple majority.
Biden has sidestepped questions about whether he supports doing away with keeping the 60-vote threshold, but several top Senate Democrats have signaled they back changing a rule that many of them once insisted was essential to the institution. There will be intense pressure on Biden and Democratic leaders to show they can pass some bills with GOP support, but if Senate Republicans stay largely unified to thwart the new administration’s agenda, calls to eliminate the filibuster will increase.
United States Senate Elections 2016
Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on . A total of 34 of the 100 seats were up for regular election. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections on November 8, 2016, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2017.
Donald Trump‘s election to the presidency had a significant impact on the elections for U.S. House. The success of Trump at the top of the ticket led to smaller Republican losses in the Senate than expected. There were also several U.S. senators who ran for president in 2016. , Rand Paul , Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders all ran presidential campaigns. Of those senators who ran for president, only Rubio and Paul were up for re-election in 2016. Rubio ultimately sought re-election to the U.S. Senate after his presidential campaign ended, while Paul sought both the presidency and re-election simultaneously.
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The Battleground States Advancing Controversial Election And Voting Bills
May 7, 2021 / 9:51 AM / CBS News
Washington Several battleground states controlled by Republicans have pushed for big changes in voting and election laws in recent months, in the wake of former President Donald Trumps electoral loss and a rise in mail-in voting due to the coronavirus pandemic.
These states are considering changes to election laws, such as measures to enforce additional ID requirements, restrict access to dropboxes and shrink the pool of voters.
Arizona, Florida, and Texas each have growing and increasingly diverse populations and play a substantial role in the outcome of presidential contests. All three have Republican legislatures and governorships. Michigan has a Democratic governor, but its Republican-controlled legislature is considering several bills that could make absentee voting more difficult.
Arizona and Michigan narrowly supported President Biden in the 2020 election, and Mr. Trump won Florida and Texas. Georgia, which Mr. Biden also won, has already passed a controversial voting law including some new restrictions.
Here is a rundown of some of the key states states proposing changes to voting and election laws:
If Democrats Gut Filibuster Republicans Have A Final Option To Delay Biden’s Agenda
As frustrations mount over opposition to President Joe Biden‘s legislative agenda, more Democrats are getting on board with ending the filibuster, and if Democrats were to gut the Senate rule, Republicans‘ final attempt to delay partisan legislation could be to not show up to work.
The passage of the American Rescue Plan along party lines signaled to Democrats that moving Biden’s agenda through the Senate won’t be an easy task, reigniting talk of ending the filibuster. That would put Democrats in a position of passing legislation without Republican support, but it could come back to haunt them and require them to force senators to come to the floor for votes.
“Nothing will happen in the Senate. They need us to show up to have a quorum. They need us there if they want to get something done,” GOP Senator Rick Scott told Fox News‘ Brian Kilmeade on Friday.
Before the Senate can start conducting its business, the Constitution says, a quorum of 51 senators must be present. Often, the Senate presumes a quorum and begins without the full 51 senators, but if a senator suggests the absence of a quorum, the presiding officer must call roll.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell reminded Democrats of this fact during a floor speech on March 16. He advised senators to “imagine a world” where every single task requires a physical quorum, which Republicans could significantly delay if they collectively didn’t show up to the Senate floor.
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Supreme Court And Judiciary
The unexpected death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on February 13, 2016, caused the Supreme Court appointment to fill the vacancy to become an election issue. Confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice requires 60 votes in the Senate, allowing the Republican-controlled Senate to deny any nominee chosen by President Barack Obama. Several Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, declared that the next president should have the responsibility of appointing the new justice. McConnell said in a statement, “The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new President.”
This raised the issue of Republican obstructionism in battleground states. Sen. Chuck Schumer said of the issue, “I believe that many of the mainstream Republicans, when the president nominates a mainstream nominee, will not want to follow Mitch McConnell over the cliff. The American people don’t like this obstruction. When you go right off the bat and say, ‘I don’t care who he nominates, I am going to oppose him,’ that’s not going to fly.”
Ten Democratic Senators Vote With Republicans For Keystone Xl Pipeline
Ten Democratic senators have voted with Republicans to allow the progress of a bill to extend the Keystone oil pipeline, placing more political pressure on the White House to reconsider its proposed veto of the legislation.
The procedural motion was passed by 63 votes to 32, comfortably clearing the three-fifths majority needed to avoid a filibuster and falling just short of the two-thirds majority that would be needed to overcome a presidential veto when it comes to a final vote.
But some of the Democrats, who were also joined by Maine independent Angus King, may switch votes in future to avoid embarrassing Barack Obama who has said he is opposed to Congress interfering in a long-running administration review of the pipeline extension.
Keystone has become a symbolic battlefield for the administrations climate change policy, with critics insisting that it will encourage the exploitation of heavily-polluting Canadian tar sands and supporters claiming it will create thousands of jobs.
The bill will now see various amendments added over the coming weeks, a process which could ultimately decide on its level of support among Democrats.
It was approved by the House of Representatives last week by 266-152 votes, a margin also short of the two-thirds majority in both chambers needed to overcome White House opposition.
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Filed Candidates By Political Party
As of September 7, 2020, 519 candidates were filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for U.S. Senate in 2020. Of those, 402â199 Democrats and 203 Republicansâwere from one of the two major political parties. In 2018, 527 candidates filed with the FEC to run for U.S. Senate, including 137 Democrats and 240 Republicans.
The following chart shows the number of filed candidates by political party.
Past Jumps In Party Affiliations
The bump in Democratic affiliation following Bidens inauguration mirrors that of former President Barack Obamas first term, Jones said.
That was really the high point that weve seen kind of the 2006-2009 period, when really the majority of Americans either identified as Democrats outright or were independents but they leaned toward the party, he said. Our data on this only goes back to the 90s, but its pretty much the only time we consistently had one party with the majority of Americans on their side.
Republican advantages, though rarer and more short-lived, followed the Gulf War in 1991 when George H.W. Bush was in office and the 9/11 terrorist attacks during President George W. Bushs term, according to Gallup. More people also reported GOP affiliation after the 1994, 2010 and 2014 midterm elections.
Whether the Republican Party can regain advantage during the 2022 midterm elections may rely on the successes of the Biden administration, according to Jones.
A lot of it is going to depend on how things go over the course of the year. If things get better with the coronavirus and the economy bounces back and a lot of people expect Biden can keep relatively strong approval ratings, then that will be better for the Democrats, Jones said. But if things start to get worse unemployment goes up or coronavirus gets worse then his approval is going to go down. Its going to make things a lot better for the Republican Party for the midterm next year.
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Four Flips For Democrats One For Republicans
Going into the election, the Democrats held 47 seats in the U.S. Senate while the Republicans held 53.
The Democrats have succeeded in flipping four seats: in Colorado, where former Governor John Hickenlooper easily ousted incumbent Cory Gardner, in Arizona, where former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated incumbent Martha McSally, and in Georgia, where Raphael Warnock defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent David Perdue.
The Republicans have wrested back one previously Democratic seat in Alabama, where one-term incumbent Doug Jones was emphatically denied a second term by Tommy Tuberville, a former college head football coach, most recently at the University of Cincinnati.
Outgoing freshman Sens. Jones and Gardner were both considered vulnerable, as each was elected with less than 50% of the vote in 2018.
Republican Thom Tilliss victory over Cal Cunningham in North Carolinaby less than 2 percentage points according to the North Carolina Secretary of States latest tallyis one of several close Senate races that were not called until after election night. In addition to the seats from Georgia, close races also include the victories of incumbent senators Gary Peters and Susan Collins , which were not called until Nov. 4.