Sununu And Shaheen Cruise In New Hampshire Primaries For Governor And Senate
Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, will face Dan Feltes, a Democrat, in the general election. Senator Jeanne Shaheen is being challenged by Corky Messner, who was endorsed by President Trump.
By Trip Gabriel
Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, and Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, easily won primary races in New Hampshire on Tuesday, reinforcing the states status as a battleground eight weeks ahead of the general election, when the top two down-ballot races will now feature popular incumbents, one from each party.
The Associated Press called the races at 8 p.m. Eastern, after polls closed an hour earlier.
President Trump visited New Hampshire the day after accepting his renomination last month, and his campaign has identified the state as a possible pickup opportunity after Mr. Trump lost it in 2016 , or less than one percentage point.
Mr. Sununu, whose favorability has been lifted all year by his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, and Ms. Shaheen, a former governor and two-term senator, both faced nominal opponents in their own parties.
Most of the suspense centered on the contests to pick their November challengers: the Democratic primary for governor, featuring a candidate endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders, and the Republican Senate primary, in which Mr. Trump weighed in with his endorsement.
In the end, it was Mr. Trump 1, Mr. Sanders, 0.
In a Granite State Poll last week, Ms. Shaheen held nearly a 20-point lead over Mr. Messner.
New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
The 2020 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary took place on Tuesday, February 11, 2020, as the second nominating contest in the Republican Party presidential primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the Iowa caucuses the week before. The New Hampshire primary is a semi-closed primary, meaning that only Republicans and independents may vote in this primary.
Incumbent president Donald Trump won the primary with 84.4 percent of the vote, clinching all of the state’s 22 pledged delegates to the national convention. Despite Bill Weld winning 9% of the vote, President Trump received the most votes in the New Hampshire primary for an incumbent candidate in U.S. history, moving past the previous record-holder, Bill Clinton, in 1996 .
New Hampshire Primary Serves As Enthusiasm Barometer Ahead Of General Election
Corky Messnerbeat retired Gen. Don Bolduc in New Hampshire’s Republican Senate primary Tuesday night after the coronavirus pandemic postponed the original race date, AP reports.
Why it matters: The GOP primary served as a test of the president’s influence in the state, with lawyer Messner touting his Trump endorsement. President Trump narrowly lost the state to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Reuters notes.
- The winner will be facing off against incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in the general election.
The state of play:“Driven by a surge in absentee voting, turnout is expected to approach or break records, a measure of enthusiasm ahead of the general election in a swing state…”the New York Times reports.
What to watch: The winner will take on popular incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu in November.
- Matt Mowers won the Republican nomination for the House in New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district
Meanwhile, Rhode Island has two congressional districts hosting competitive races Tuesday: with Rep. Jim Langevin, a 10-term Democrat, facing an opponent, while Republicans will meet the winner in November.
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Will Warren Get A Delegate
Warren’s third-place showing in Iowa left her in a bit of a no-man’s land: well behind the front of the pack but ahead of Biden. Now, polls in New Hampshire show her at risk of finishing fourth and in danger of not collecting a single delegate.
Delegates are awarded proportionally to candidates on a congressional district-by-congressional district basis, but candidates need to clear a 15 percent threshold in each of them to get any.
That could spell trouble for Warren, Biden and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., because none of them have been consistently breaking the 15 percent threshold.
Primary Elections In New Hampshire
A primary election is an election used either to narrow the field of candidates for a given elective office or to determine the nominees for political parties in advance of a general election. Primary elections can take several different forms. In a partisan primary, voters select a candidate to be a political party’s nominee for a given office in the corresponding general election. Nonpartisan primaries are used to narrow the field of candidates for nonpartisan offices in advance of a general election. The terms of participation in primary elections can vary by jurisdiction, political party, and the office or offices up for election. The methods employed to determine the outcome of the primary can also vary by jurisdiction.
See the sections below for general information on the use of primary elections in the United States and specific information on the types of primaries held in New Hampshire:
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Can I Vote In A Primary If I Am An Undeclared Voter
Yes. An undeclared voter may vote in a state primary or a presidential primary. You will be required to choose either a Republican or Democratic ballot when you go to vote.; The last day a registered voter can change their party affiliation before the 2022 state primary is May 31, 2022.; Supervisors are required to meet on that day at least between 7:00 – 7:30 p.m. to accept party changes.;
Sanders Narrowly Wins New Hampshire Primary But Democratic Race Remains In Flux
Sen. Bernie Sanders pulled out a narrow victory in New Hampshires Democratic primary on Tuesday, the Associated Press projected, with two more moderate candidates, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, close on his heels.
With 90 percent of the vote counted, Sanders, the Vermont independent, was also declared the winner by CBS, CNN, ABC and NBC. He led Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., by less than 2 percent of the vote. Klobuchar, the senator from Minnesota, came in third place.
In 2016, when the Democratic primary was was essentially a two-person race, Sanders cruised to victory over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire by a margin of over 22 points, earning 60 percent of the vote.
Let me say that this victory here is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump, Sanders said in Manchester, prompting his supporters to chant Bernie beats Trump! in response.
Sanders asserted that he was two for two in the first contests of the Democratic primary.
The reason that we won tonight in New Hampshire, that we won last week in Iowa, is because of the hard work of so many volunteers, Sanders said.
When it comes to delegates awarded to the candidates on Tuesday, however, Sanders tied Buttigieg in New Hampshire with nine delegates apiece. Klobuchar earned six delegates.
A little more than a week after upsetting Sanders in the Iowa caucus delegate count, Buttigieg nearly pulled off a second improbable win in the Granite State.
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Why New Hampshires Independents Are So Tough To Pin Down
Every four years, the anticipation grows around how New Hampshires independent voters might vote come primary day. New Hampshire votes the week after the Iowa caucuses, making its primary a critical test for candidates.
Out of the more than 977,000 registered voters in the Granite State, about 413,500 are undeclared to either party, compared to the states 275,252 registered Democrats and 288,524 registered Republicans. Undeclared voters can choose either ballot in a primary and switch their party back to undeclared with their local election officials after theyve voted.
There hasnt been a sudden surge in Republican or Democratic registered voters switching over to undeclared, New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State David Scanlan told me. But because New Hampshire also allows same-day registration, Scanlan said hes expecting to see thousands of new voters at the polls on Election Day.
Most registrations take place on Election Day, he said. It will be in the tens of thousands. We wont know until Election Day.
The data we have on this group shows undeclared voters are certainly not a monolith, and they dont vote as a bloc. Polling data collected from 1999 to 2014 by Smith and former UNH political science professor and pollster David Moore showed that about 40 percent of undeclared voters consistently voted Republican and 45 percent Democratic. That left just 15 percent who could truly be considered independents, voting for candidates of both parties.
Hunting For Educated Upscale Voters
Buttigieg and Warren are neck and neck among college graduates and voters who earn $100,000 or more, according to a University of Massachusetts-Lowell survey of New Hampshire. The coveted constituencies are critical to both their paths to the nomination, and Tuesday’s vote will offer some clues as to which way they’re leaning.
In a Quinnipiac national poll of Democrats, Warren and Buttigieg were tied at 17 percent and leading the field among white college graduates. The New Hampshire result could tilt voters who are torn between the two.
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New Hampshire Presidential Primary
The New Hampshire presidential primary is the first in a series of nationwide party primary elections and the second party contest held in the United States every four years as part of the process of choosing the delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions which choose the party nominees for the presidential elections to be held the subsequent November. Although only a few delegates are chosen in the New Hampshire primary, its real importance comes from the massive media coverage it receives . Spurred by the events of the 1968 election, reforms that began with the 1972 election elevated the two states’ importance to the overall election, and began to receive as much media attention as all of the other state contests combined. Examples of this extraordinary coverage have been seen on the campuses of Dartmouth College and Saint Anselm College, as the colleges have held multiple national debates and have attracted media outlets like NPR, Fox News, CNN, NBC, and ABC. The publicity and momentum can be enormous from a decisive win by a frontrunner, or better-than-expected result in the New Hampshire primary. The upset or weak showing by a front-runner changes the calculus of national politics in a matter of hours, as happened in 1952 , 1968 , 1980 , and 2008 .
Republicans Win In Effort To Limit ‘liberal’ Student Vote In Key 2020 Races
They are kids voting liberal, a New Hampshire Republican said in 2011 as legal battle over student voting in the state continues
Maggie Flaherty grew up in a small town in California, but after she moved to New Hampshire to attend Dartmouth College, she registered to vote in the state where she would be spending at least four years.
Now she is embroiled in a fight against Republicans in the state that is being watched across the country.
Flaherty and a fellow student are challenging a Republican-backed law that is making it harder for many out-of-state students and other temporary residents to cast a ballot in a state with outsized national influence.
The lawsuit has been endorsed by the Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren and other Democratic presidential hopefuls. But last week, Flaherty and her colleague Caroline Casey hit another obstacle when the US district judge Joseph LaPlante denied a request to block the law just months before the primary elections.
New Hampshire is a small swing state where both local and state-wide races can be decided by razor-thin margins. Donald Trump lost the state to Hillary Clinton by just 2,736 votes in 2016. The same year, Maggie Hassan, also a Democrat, defeated Kelly Ayotte for a Senate seat by just 1,017 votes. The Democratic primary in February and general election in November are expected to be closely fought.
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New Hampshires Political Geography
This guide originally appeared in The Trailer newsletter; .
The Democrats anguish about their primary system Does it vet for the right qualities? Is it too slanted toward white voters? is frequently directed at New Hampshire. By law, the state must hold its primary seven days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election, which has stopped some more-diverse states from voting earlier. New Hampshire is 92 percent white, the least racially diverse of the early states, with most of its black, Latino and Asian voters concentrated in a few midsize cities.
New Hampshire has a semi-open primary, giving voters who have not registered with the Democratic Party their loudest voice of any of the first four states. Just 60 percent of New Hampshire primary voters who pulled a Democratic ballot were registered with the party in 2016. The independent streak helped Sen. Bernie Sanders win by a landslide; he won registered Democrats by a single percentage point and crushed Hillary Clinton by 45 points with independents.
The victory in 2016 was the most lopsided in the 100-year history of the primary. Sanders won 60 percent of the vote and all but six of the states 221 towns; Clinton had the endorsements of every major party leader, including the Democrats who now make up New Hampshires all-blue delegation to Congress. All of them Sens. Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, and Reps. Ann Kuster and Chris Pappas are neutral in 2020.
As Democrats Weigh Fate Of New Hampshires First
As Democrats debate whether New Hampshire should keep its first-in-the-nation primary, Republican 2024 hopefuls are already preparing to compete in it, an early signal that for at least one party, the states outsized importance in national politics has not waned.
Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, and former secretary of state Mike Pompeo have all made virtual or in-person appearances in New Hampshire in recent months, propelling speculation that they are weighing presidential campaigns. Those visits come as states across the country jostle for position on the Democratic presidential primary calendar and New Hampshire politicians fight to keep the primary where they say it belongs.
Many Democrats, including some who ran for president in 2020, say Iowa and New Hampshire shouldnt hold the nations first nominating contests because their majority-white populations dont reflect the Democratic electorate.Those debates are taking place behind the scenes at the Democratic National Committee, as party leaders including former Senate majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Representative Jim Clyburn of South Carolina both say states like theirs should appear sooner on the primary calendar, and Nevada state lawmakers have filed a bill to move to the front of the line.
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Can Anyone Save The Gop
Bill Weld tries a Granite State carom shot.
Bill Weld, the former Massachusetts governor and current long-shot make that, loooooooong-shot candidate for the Republican Partys presidential nomination, is a keen student of New Hampshire politics. In an interview with me this week, he noted the following fact: Every time an incumbent president of either party faced a significant primary challenge in the Granite State, he failed in his bid for re-election.
It happened to George H.W. Bush in 1992 after Patrick Buchanan took 38 percent of the New Hampshire vote.
It happened to Jimmy Carter in 1980 after Teddy Kennedy took 39 percent.
It happened to Gerald Ford in 1976 after Ronald Reagan took 48 percent.
It happened to Lyndon Johnson in 1968 after Eugene McCarthy took 42 percent.
It happened to Harry Truman in 1952 when Estes Kefauver beat him outright, 55 percent to 44.
So, Weld reasons, why not try to make it happen to Donald J. Trump, too?
Thats the hopeful thought in what otherwise seems to be Welds hopeless bid to derail a president whose support among Republicans was 89 percent last month, according to Gallup.Weld is too much a politician to admit publicly that he sees no shot for himself of winning a Messiah complex lies at the root of many monumental ambitions.
The one sport where the unthinkable can become the inevitable in a matter of weeks or even days, Weld said, is national politics, not the National Football League.
Republicans With An Eye On 2024 Begin New Hampshire Outreach
Republicans mulling a 2024 presidential bid are paying close attention to New Hampshire, moving swiftly since former President Donald Trump exited the White House to ingratiate themselves with influential political figures in the Granite State.
Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas is returning to New Hampshire in July for a couple of events. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo headlined a virtual fundraiser for a state legislative candidate in March; former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was in the state in April; Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, was there in May; and former Vice President Mike Pence was there in June.
Additionally, Republican sources say former ambassador Nikki Haley is quietly engaging key GOP activists in New Hampshire to find out how she can boost the partys efforts in 2022, as well as a couple of competitive local elections scheduled for this year. Unsaid but obvious is that Haley also is laying the foundation for a possible 2024 bid. It is low-profile outreach, but she isn’t sitting still here, a Republican operative said.
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Conversely, Republicans are defending the customary calendar and attempting to use the issue to win support from GOP activists and voters in the early states.
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