Emboldened ‘unchanged’ Trump Looks To Re
The set of advisers around Trump now is a familiar mix of his top 2020 campaign aides and others who have moved in and out of his orbit over time. They include Miller, Susie Wiles, Bill Stepien, Justin Clark, Corey Lewandowski and Brad Parscale.
While his schedule isn’t set yet, according to Trump’s camp, his coming stops are likely to include efforts to help Ohio congressional candidate Max Miller, a former White House aide looking to win a primary against Rep. Anthony Gonzales, who voted to impeach Trump this year Jody Hice, who is trying to unseat fellow Republican Brad Raffensperger as Georgia secretary of state after Raffensperger defied Trump and validated the state’s electoral votes and Alabama Senate candidate Mo Brooks, according to Trump’s camp.
Trump’s ongoing influence with Republican voters helps explain why most GOP officeholders stick so closely to him. Republicans spared him a conviction in the Senate after the House impeached him for stoking the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, House GOP leaders have made it clear that they view his engagement as essential to their hopes of retaking the chamber, and Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., was deposed as Republican Conference Chair this year over her repeated rebukes of Trump.
Those numbers suggest that Trump could be in a strong position to win a Republican primary but lose the general election in 3½ years. A former Trump campaign operative made that case while discussing Trump’s ambitions.
Republicans Think Democrats Always Cheat
The Republican strategy has several sources of motivation, but the most important is a widely shared belief that Democrats in large cities i.e., racial minorities engage in systematic vote fraud, election after election. We win because of our ideas, we lose elections because they cheat us, insisted Senator Lindsey Graham on Fox News last night. The Bush administration pursued phantasmal vote fraud allegations, firing prosecutors for failing to uncover evidence of the schemes Republicans insisted were happening under their noses. In 2008, even a Republican as civic-minded as John McCain accused ACORN, a voter-registration group, of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country, maybe destroying the fabric of democracy.
The persistent failure to produce evidence of mass-scale vote fraud has not discouraged Republicans from believing in its existence. The failure to expose it merely proves how well-hidden the conspiracy is. Republicans may despair of their chances of proving Trumps vote-fraud charges in open court, but many of them believe his wild lies reflect a deeper truth.
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Barr: It Would Be Big Mistake For Republicans To Nominate Trump In 2024
I dont think he should be our nominee, ex-presidents attorney general tells Newsmax
William Barr, Donald Trumps former attorney general, said in an interview on Thursday that it would be a big mistake for the Republican party to nominate Trump for president in 2024.
Appearing on the Newsmax television channel, Barr said Trump, who has hinted that he will run again, would not be a sound choice.
I dont think he should be our nominee the Republican party nominee, Barr said.
And I think Republicans have a big opportunity it would be a big mistake to put him forward.
In a poll in January 57% of Republican voters said they would choose Trump in 2024. Trump also won the less scientific Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll, in February, by a large margin.
Trump, who was impeached twice during his four years in the White House, has repeatedly teased his supporters with suggestions he will run again.
We did it twice, and well do it again, Trump told a crowd at the CPAC convention claiming again that he won the 2020 election.
Were going to be doing it again a third time.
Still, Barrs remarks will be sure to anger Trump, who has repeatedly clashed with his former attorney general since losing the 2020 election.
In Barrs book, One Damn Thing After Another: Memoirs of an Attorney General, he wrote that Trump had shown he has neither the temperament nor persuasive powers to provide the kind of positive leadership that is needed.
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So Why Do Republicans Still Have An Edge
Democrats might stem the tide or shore up their base, but Republicans still have a big lead among voters who prioritize inflation and the economy. Plus, a year of voter frustration over those issues won’t go away overnight, as shown by the belief of more voters that Republicans will prioritize inflation if they win control of Congress, than Democrats will if they win.
There are also just more safe Republican seats than Democratic ones in the House. Republicans need only to flip four competitive seats to win a majority. Our model indicates that they would be well positioned to do so if the elections were today.
This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,126 registered voters interviewed between August 24-26, 2022. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as to 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.4 points. The House seats estimates are based on a multilevel regression and post-stratification model incorporating voter responses to this survey. Each party’s seat estimate has a margin of error of ±13 seats.
Has Trump Put The Republican Party In Danger Of Repeating The 2010 Senate Race
In the course of a sizzling hot summer, predictions for how Democrats will do in the midterm elections have gone from dismal to cautiously optimistic. Many factors have contributed to this turnaround. The Supreme Court reversed a half century of precedent when they overturned Roe v. Wade, giving dispirited Democrats an issue to rally around Biden finally made a deal with his recalcitrant Democrats to pass important elements of his domestic policy agenda and surprisingly strong job numbers countered the threat of imminent recession and proved a strong, if brief, counterpart to the bad economic news around inflation. By August Democrats were tied with Republicans in the generic ballot a question that asks whether voters want Democrats or Republicans in Congress.
At the beginning of the summer, FiveThirtyEight was giving Republicans a 60% chance of holding the Senate but by August 10 their prediction had flipped and they now give Democrats a 60% chance of holding the Senate.
What happened? In addition to a string of positive news for the Democrats, a field of Trump acolytes have been nominated as Republican candidates for the House and Senate . Many of these nominees have won with Trumps endorsement and against the better judgment of others in the Republican Party. These candidates could decrease the chances of a Republican blowout this year, especially in the Senate.
So, what about Trumps 2022 choices?
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Democrats Think Many Republicans Sincere And Point To Policy
Democrats, however, were somewhat more generous in their answers. More than four in ten Democratic voters felt that most Republican voters had the countrys best interests at heart . And many tried their best to answer from the others perspective. A 45-year-old male voter from Ohio imagined that as a Republican, he was motivated by Republicans harsh stance on immigration standing up for the 2nd Amendment promised tax cuts. A 30-year-old woman from Colorado felt that Republican votes reflected the desires to stop abortion stop gay marriage from ruining our country and give us our coal jobs back.
Other Democrats felt that their opponents were mostly motivated by the GOPs opposition to Obamacare, lower taxes and to support a party that reduced unemployment.
Ongoing Trump Investigations Could Mean A Plot Twist For Midterms
The question of whether Biden would explicitly politicize legal action against Trump is different from the question of whether he would benefit from a federal case against Republicans leading 2024 hopeful. Just as Trump understood the potential damage that could be done by an investigation the House impeached him for withholding security funds from Ukraine to try to force a probe of Biden in that country Biden clearly grasps that even the appearance of political interference would rob him of a key contrast with Trump.
No good comes in inserting yourself, Jay Jacobs, chairman of the New York Democratic Party, said. It only diminishes the credibility of the professional investigations that are going on.
Thats a view shared by the White House.
He would not comment or discuss in any way whatsoever, one White House official said of the FBI search of Trumps home.
Biden has shown a willingness to highlight the work of the Jan. 6 committee, which has produced evidence that the Capitol riot was the culmination of Trumps two-month campaign to overturn the 2020 election. But the Justice Department, unlike the congressional committee, is under Bidens control, and that creates a political imperative for him to avoid appearing to point it at his enemy.
At the same time, a streak of positive news for Biden and the resurgent love Trump is feeling from Republicans has not convinced even some of his allies that the president should seek a second term.
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Question1 Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way Joe Biden Is Handling His Job As President
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoApprove 37% 3% 80% 28% 30% 43% 50% 25%Disapprove 52 95 11 56 58 45 46 65DK/NA 12 3 9 15 12 12 4 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspApprove 31% 39% 37% 43% 26% 40% 33% 65% 33%Disapprove 48 50 55 53 65 53 59 22 51DK/NA 21 11 8 4 9 8 8 13 16
We Must Give Credit To Media And Technology
While the reason Trump voters believe Trumps lies in their psyche, we cant ignore that social media and cable news have created multiple realties in which people exist. According to Fox News, not once has Trump ever said something negative about military service members .
Of course, Fox News is considered responsible when compared to the even-more fringe outlets the way-the-f*ck-out-there mental prison camps like OAN and Americas News that are down-right propaganda channels devoted exclusively to milking angry republicans of their last dime, their last drop of empathy, and their last connection to a reality-based existence. They make Alex Jones look sane. Einstein was right just didnt realize at the time he was talking about political discourse.
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Why Donald Trump Is Republicans’ Worst Nightmare In 2024
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Earlier this week, amid a rambling attack on the validity of the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump said this: “Interesting that today a poll came out indicating I’m far in the lead for the Republican Presidential Primary and the General Election in 2024.”
“Trump is confiding in allies that he intends to run again in 2024 with one contingency: that he still has a good bill of health, according to two sources close to the former president. That means Trump is going to hang over the Republican Party despite its attempts to rebrand during his exile and its blockade of a Trump-centric investigation into January’s insurrection.”“Manhattan prosecutors pursuing a criminal case against former President Donald Trump, his company and its executives have told at least one witness to prepare for grand jury testimony, according to a person familiar with the matter — a signal that the lengthy investigation is moving into an advanced stage.”
Question23 Do You Consider What Happened At The Us Capitol On January 6th An Attack On The Government Or Not
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoYes/Attack on gov't 59% 29% 93% 56% 53% 66% 65% 49%No 35 66 5 40 42 29 32 44DK/NA 5 5 3 5 5 5 3 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspYes/Attack on gov't 63% 64% 55% 56% 46% 63% 55% 83% 57%No 31 30 42 39 49 32 40 13 39DK/NA 7 6 2 5 5 5 5 4 4
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Trump Lost So Why Are Republicans Standing By Him
Normally when a political party loses a presidential election, it engages in a period of reflection to understand what went wrong. In 2012, for example, Barack Obamas re-election prompted a 100-page autopsy to explain Mitt Romneys defeat.
But that hasnt happened this time around. The former president has not only managed to squelch any dissent within his party, The Timess Lisa Lerer wrote, but has persuaded most of the G.O.P. to make a gigantic bet: that the surest way to regain power is to embrace his pugilistic style, racial divisiveness and beyond-the-pale conspiracy theories rather than to court the suburban swing voters who cost the party the White House and who might be looking for substantive policies on the pandemic, the economy and other issues.
Why doesnt the Republican Party feel the need to rebrand?There are a few theories, as Perry Bacon Jr. suggested at FiveThirtyEight. For one thing, Trump is still a force in the party: Anyone who discusses his shortcomings in the open risks provoking his ire and a primary challenge. For another, despite presiding over a pandemic-induced recession, the Republican Party almost won the White House in 2020: If Trump had done only about one percentage point better in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and about three points better in Michigan, Joe Biden wouldnt be president.
He Says Disrespectful Things About Women
We live in a world where its OK to bash men nonstopto call them stupid, clumsy, inept, and eviland none of this is considered sexist. Then along comes Trump with the audacity to suggest that some women might actually be human beings rather than perpetual victims and therefore might also be stupid, clumsy, inept, and evil. For all the talk about empowerment, many of Trumps female critics cant seem to stand the slightest criticism. And despite the fact that Democrats tried rallying all women against him, he still got over 40% of the total female voteand a majority of white women.
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Was I Stupid Was I Blind
When a popular leader continually employs division and misinformation to promote his goals, loyalists can drift from democratic standards and from fact-based reality.
Chatman, the Berkeley Haas leadership expert, trained as a social psychologist. Research, she said, has shown that people can be persuaded by the stories that leaders tell. If a leader makes an appealing promise, people will remain loyal, even if the leader doesnt deliver.
Trump, Chatman explained, has framed a narrative that says, Im the turnaround guy. Im going to drain the swamp. Im going to blow Washington up. And so anyone who was disaffected about government, which turns out to have been a lot of people, likes that narrative.
How far does that influence extend?
Exhibit A: QAnon is a bizarre conspiracy cult united in the belief that Trump is defending the world against a vast network of Satanic pedophiles including Democrats, Hollywood stars and others in the deep state who are attempting to traffic in children and generally to threaten freedom. Trump has welcomed QAnon support and sometimes retweets their communications.
One recent poll found that 56% of Republicans now believe that the improbable QAnon conspiracies are somewhat or entirely true. Only 4% of Democrats agree.
Its much easier and more cognitively consistent to stay in and say, Oh, the media, the Democrats, theyre not giving him a fair shot. . Thats why we dont see any movement in the Trump base.
More On The Trump Documents Inquiry
- Was There Obstruction?: The redacted affidavit released by the Justice Department on Aug. 26 included information indicating that prosecutors had evidence suggesting efforts to impede the recovery of documents a scenario that could raise significant legal peril for Mr. Trump.
Some of the presidents biggest cheerleaders Marjorie Taylor Greene, Jim Jordan have gone kind of silent, Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, an anti-Trump Republican, said on NBCs Meet the Press. That tells you all you need to know.
As the Mar-a-Lago case has dominated the news this month, predictions about a Republican wave have weakened.
Privately, Republican strategists say they are downgrading their forecast of the party picking up as many as 30 seats in the House in favor of smaller gains.
How Times reporters cover politics.We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.
The Cook Political Report projected in May that Republicans could gain as many as 35 seats in the House. Last week, the publication revised its projection to a more modest gain of 10 to 20 seats.
That is not to say that no Republican defended Mr. Trump on Sunday.
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American Heartland: The Shock Of Being Left Behind
In 2017, when Adam Jadhav returned to his old home town of Henry, Illinois , his research found some of the maladies described by Lenz and Chatman. Some people longed for better days gone by. Some younger men were seething because they no longer had a place in the local economy.
But in an article published recently in the Journal of Rural Studies, he described something more subtle: a quiet despair in farm country.
Not so long ago, Henry was an economic hub in central Illinois. There were healthy family farms, and industries associated with the farms Caterpillar Inc. machinery factories, tire factories. And the town was 99% white, which allowed an unchallenged racism. Jadhav was harassed because his father, the United Methodist minister, was an Indian immigrant.
In recent decades, change has swept through Henry like a prairie storm. The economy has devolved. Opportunity, wealth and people especially young people have fled to bigger cities. Shops have closed. Churches have closed. And the people left behind mourn for whats been lost.
When Donald Trump ran in 2016, Jadhav said, the slogan Make America Great Again found an audience. Its not that Trump was popular to many, Jadhav said, he seemed a horribly flawed candidate. Still, Trump spoke to their values and insecurities, and Hillary Clinton didnt.
What comes next, now that Trump has lost? Jadhav is of two minds.