Donald Trump: Campaigns And Elections
Trumps early involvement in politics came while working alongside his father and consisted mostly of contributing to and befriending the Democratic officeholders in New York City who held sway over the many rules, regulations, tax policies, and permits that govern real estate developers. His father, Fred Trump, associated with Brooklyns Democratic organization and became familiar with politicians including Abraham Beame, who became a New York City mayor, and Hugh Carey, who served as governor of New York.
Yet the younger Trumps political shape-shifting was apparent early on. He supported Ronald Reagan for president in 1980 and was invited to the White House for functions. By 1987, he identified as a Republican, although in future years Trump would register or identify as a Democrat, independent, and Reform Party member.
Throughout the second Bushs administration, Trump identified as a Democrat, often publicly criticizing the president. But in 2008 he supported the Republican nominee, John McCain. He made a more serious bid for Republicans 2012 nomination, but ultimately backed the partys choice, Mitt Romney. Given Trumps quadrennial flirtation with a presidential campaign, by the start of the 2016 cycle, most observers and potential rivals dismissed his early talk of running as just more self-promotion to burnish the Trump brand.
Donald Trump And The Politics Of Fear
Trumps candidacy relies on the power of fear. It could be the only way for him to win.
People are scared, Donald Trump said recently, and he was not wrong.
Fear is in the air, and fear is surging. Americans are more afraid today than they have been in a long time: Polls show majorities of Americans worried about being victims of terrorism and crime, numbers that have surged over the past year to highs not seen for more than a decade. Every week seems to bring a new large- or small-scale terrorist attack, at home or abroad. Mass shootings form a constant drumbeat. Protests have shut down large cities repeatedly, and some have turned violent. Overall crime rates may be down, but a sense of disorder is constant.
Fear pervades Americans livesand American politics. Trump is a master of fear, invoking it in concrete and abstract ways, summoning and validating it. More than most politicians, he grasps and channels the fear coursing through the electorate. And if Trump still stands a chance to win in November, fear could be the key.
Fear and anger are often cited in tandem as the sources of Trumps particular political appeal, so frequently paired that they become a refrain: fear and anger, anger and fear. But fear is not the same as anger it is a unique political force. Its ebbs and flows through American political history have pulled on elections, reordering and destabilizing the electoral landscape.
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Question21 As You May Know A Special Congressional Committee Is Investigating The Storming Of The Us Capitol That Occurred On January 6th And It Has Issued Several Subpoenas To Witnesses As Part Of Its Investigation Do You Want To Hear More Information About What Led To The Events Of That Day Or Do You Think Enough Is Already Known About What Led To The Events Of That Day
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoWant to hear more 40% 22% 59% 38% 38% 42% 57% 36%Enough already known 56 74 38 58 58 54 41 59DK/NA 4 3 3 4 4 5 3 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspWant to hear more 40% 37% 41% 42% 41% 45% 43% 34% 33%Enough already known 57 57 54 56 54 52 53 61 63DK/NA 3 6 5 2 5 3 4 5 5
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Question4 Is Your Opinion Of Joe Biden Favorable Unfavorable Or Haven’t You Heard Enough About Him
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoFavorable 38% 2% 83% 28% 29% 46% 52% 23%Unfavorable 50 93 8 57 57 44 45 65Hvn't hrd enough 9 3 7 11 10 7 2 8REFUSED 3 1 2 3 4 2 1 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspFavorable 30% 40% 40% 44% 25% 40% 33% 67% 36%Unfavorable 46 51 52 51 65 52 58 21 49Hvn't hrd enough 17 6 6 3 6 7 6 10 7REFUSED 7 2 2 1 4 1 3 2 7
Poll: Biden Now Leads Trump By Widest Margin In 6 Months
As President Bidens approval rating continues to bounce back from its summertime lows, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll now shows him leading former President Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch by the widest margin since March.
The survey of 1,634 U.S. adults was conducted from Sept. 2 to Sept. 6 immediately after a combative primetime speech last Thursday, in which Biden blasted Trump and the MAGA Republicans as extremists who threat the very foundations of our republic.
The poll found that if the next presidential election were held today, 48% of registered voters would choose Biden, while 42% would choose Trump. Bidens new 6-point lead is 3 points larger than his edge in the previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey from late August and 4 points better than his average lead across all Yahoo News/YouGov surveys conducted between April and July . The polls margin of error is approximately 2.6%.
The last time Biden led Trump in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll by 6 percentage points or more among registered voters was in March 2022 . The time before that was in May 2021 . Notably, Bidens support today matches those previous highs.
None of which means Biden is a lock to defeat Trump in 2024. The election is still years away, and Trump won in 2016 despite losing the national popular vote . Meanwhile, more Americans still disapprove than approve of Bidens performance in office.
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Heres What Is On Trump And Bidens Schedules Today
As President Trump and Joe Biden enter the fall sprint to Election Day, both candidates hit the campaign trail today and are set to deliver remarks.
- Trump is expected to travel to Ohio, where he will first deliver remarks at a Workers for Trump event at 4:30 p.m. ET in Vandalia and then hold a Great American Comeback rally at 7:00 p.m. ET in Swanton.
- Biden travels to Manitowoc, Wisconsin, and is set deliver remarks at 3:15 p.m. ET. This will mark Bidens second trip to Wisconsin since becoming the official Democratic presidential nominee. He traveled earlier this month to the Milwaukee area and Kenosha, the city where the police shooting of 29-year-old Jacob Blake reignited protests over racial injustice.
Check out CNNs Poll of Polls which tracks the national average in the race here.
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Mood Is Great In The White House Mnuchin Says
The mood is great in the White Houses East Room, where a couple of hundred people gathered to watch election results, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBCs Kayla Tausche.
The gathering comes less than two months after the White House hosted guests at an event announcing Amy Coney Barrett as the Supreme Court nominee, which the nations top infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci later labeled a super-spreader event.
President Donald Trump and several other White House officials fell ill with the virus shortly after the event.
Lauren Feiner
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Here’s Where Biden And Trump Stand In The Polls 100 Days Out From The Presidential Election
The 2020 presidential election is only 100 days away and former Vice President Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in most of the recent national and battleground state polls.
Ipsos, YouGov and Morning Consult polls conducted in mid-July among likely voters all found Biden was leading Trump by at least 7 points nationally. Biden also began gaining ground on Trump over the last couple of months in swing states and continues to hold that lead with fewer than four months to go before the election on November 3.
The 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, lost each of the six key swing statesArizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin to Trump nearly four years ago. Aside from Arizona and North Carolina, which also went red in 2012, the four other swing states flipped for Trump after leaning blue in the previous presidential election.
Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee in April after Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race, the last of Biden’s Democratic competitors to do so. A few days after Sanders suspended his campaign, he joined several of his previous Democratic competitors in announcing his support for the former vice president.
Political Career Of Donald Trump
| This article is part of a series about |
From through 2021, Donald Trump was the 45th President of the United States he is the only American president to have never held political office prior to his presidency. Trump has been a presidential candidate three times, in 2000, 2016, and 2020 he also “unofficially” campaigned in 2012 and mulled a run in 2004. He won the 2016 general election through the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 2.8 million votes, the greatest losing margin in the popular vote of any U.S. president he was thereby elected the 45th president of the United States on November 8, 2016, and inaugurated on January 20, 2017. He unsuccessfully sought reelection in the 2020 United States presidential election, losing by 7 million votes to Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Trump is the only US president to have been impeached twice, or to be impeached for incitement of insurrection against the United States he is generally regarded by historians as one of the worst presidents of all time. Among the American public, Trump’s average 41 percent approval rating was the lowest of any president since Gallup began polling, and he left office with a 34 percent approval rating and 62 percent disapproval rating in his final polls.
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
% Of Republican Voters Said Theyd Back Trump In A Hypothetical 2024 Contest Up From 54% In July
Former President Donald Trump has used the intense investigative scrutiny he is facing to energize his supporters. Its working with Republicans, according to a new Morning Consult/Politico survey conducted after the Federal Bureau of Investigations raid of his Mar-a-Lago home, but much of the broader electorate isnt buying his claims of a political witch hunt.
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What Do The Most Recent Polls Show
Surveys in the last week range from Gallups tracking poll, which shows 37% of Americans approving of Trumps job performance and 56% disapproving, to a Rasmussen poll of people deemed likely to vote in 2018 that has 44%-56%. Surveys by all the major polling organizations show roughly the same downward trend in Trumps approval.
Keep up on all the latest news on the Trump administration »
Trump Wins Back Independents Biden Loses Ground With Women
Both candidates largely hold onto voters within their own parties. Ninety-three percent of Democrats support Biden, along with 4% of self-described Republicans. And 89% of Republicans support Trump, along with 2% of Democrats.
But Trump has regained an edge with those who identify as independents a bloc key to his 2016 win in Iowa. According to National Election Pool exit polling published by CNN, independent voters favored Trump 51% to 38% over Democrat Hillary Clinton that year.
In the Registers September Iowa Poll, Biden led with independents 50% to 38%. But today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35%.
I think that the key to whats happening with President Trump is that he is leading with independents, Selzer said. That is a group that in Iowa in our September poll looked like it was swinging to Joe Biden, and its come back to be a Trump asset.
In addition to fading with independents, Biden has lost ground with women. In September, he held a 20-point lead among women, which balanced out Trumps 21-point lead among men. But today, Bidens lead with women has shrunk to 9 percentage points, 50% to 41%.
We saw a huge gender gap that benefited Biden in September, Selzer said. And while there is still a big gap among men theyre going for Trump by a 24-point margin its just a 9-point margin for Biden with women. And so theres just an imbalance there. Before, we saw mirror images of each other.
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‘i Wasn’t Scared I Was Mad’
The impact of this conspiracy on the US voting system was made clear to me in Georgia, in the election offices of Paulding County, where public officials are gearing up for the midterms with some trepidation.
Deirdre Holden is an unelected civil servant with the job of Supervisor of Elections and Voter Registration. She is in charge of the mechanics of voting, making sure polling stations operate smoothly, ballots are collected safely and counted accurately. Holden doesn’t tear up easily, but when she rereads the threat letter she received after the 2020 election she chokes, for just a second.
“This election is effing rigged,” it reads. “Detonations will occur at every polling site in this county. No one at these places will be spared. If you think we’re bluffing, eff-ing try. You’ve been warned. We will end you all.” Deirdre puts down the letter and wipes her eye.
If I got that message, I’d be afraid to come into work, but what I’m seeing isn’t fear, it’s anger. “I never was scared. I was mad. Mad that someone tries to threaten us, to threaten the people that just want to cast their vote. That didn’t sit very well with me,” Deirdre says.
When her office in Paulding County received that threat after the 2020 election, they passed it onto the FBI. Agents told her she ought to start parking her car outside her office window it would help limit the force impact of an explosion, they explained.
Views Of Joe Biden Donald Trump Congressional Leaders
Over the past year, Joe Bidens job approval has declined substantially among many groups, including members of his own party.
Last July, about nine-in-ten self-identified Democrats said they approved of the way Biden was handling his job as president. Today, about three-quarters say the same.
Among political independents, Bidens job rating has fallen from 54% a year ago to 33% today. In particular, Biden has lost ground among independents who lean to the Democratic Party. Democratic leaners tend to be younger, on average, than self-identified Democrats, and they are more likely to be men.
Today, only about half of Democratic leaners approve of Bidens job performance. While his rating among Democratic leaners has not changed a great deal since January, it is about 30 percentage points lower than it was a year ago .
Since he first took office, generally only small shares of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have approved of Bidens performance as president. Today, just 8% of Republican leaners and 3% of self-identified Republicans give Biden positive job ratings.
Among the overall public, 37% say they approve of Bidens job performance, while 62% disapprove. More than twice as many adults strongly disapprove of Bidens job performance as strongly approve .
While majorities across all age groups disapprove of Bidens job performance, his approval rating is 10 points lower among adults under 30 than among those 65 and older .
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Trump’s Approval Rating Holding Steady At 43 Percent With 55 Percent Disapproving
The same poll found that 35 percent of voters including 74 percent of Republicans but just 30 percent of independents and 3 percent of Democrats believe President-elect Joe Biden did not win the election legitimately.
Sixty-one percent of all voters but just 21 percent of Republicans say Biden did win legitimately.
While a record 10 House Republicans broke ranks to vote for Trump’s impeachment last week, his approval rating among Republicans shows few signs that GOP voters are widely disillusioned with him.
Almost 9 in 10 Republicans 87 percent give Trump a thumbs-up, compared with 89 percent who said the same before the November election.
And even for the half of Republicans who say they prioritize the GOP in general over allegiance to Trump, his high approval remains unmoved by recent events.
Among Republicans who say their primary loyalty is to Trump over the party, 98 percent approve of his performance. For those who say they prioritize the party over the president, his approval still stands at 81 percent virtually unchanged from October.
In the NBC News survey, nearly a third of GOP voters surveyed 28 percent said Trump’s words and actions related to the violence at the Capitol reinforced their vote for Trump.
Just 5 percent said they now regretted their support for him, and two-thirds 66 percent said their feelings had not changed.
