Ron Desantis Chances Of Beating Donald Trump In 2024 According To Polls
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has emerged early as a potential front-runner for the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nomination, although former President Donald Trump continues to tease the possibility of another White House bid as well.
Neither DeSantis nor Trump has said he plans to run in the next presidential election. Meanwhile, analysts and pundits largely believe that both prominent Republicans are strongly considering the possibility. Rumors have emerged of tension between the two, but both have publicly dismissed the speculation.
Recent polls show mixed results, with both appearing to have a potential path to the nomination. Several recent straw polls have shown DeSantis as the front-runner, while national polls have generally shown Trump in the lead by double digits if he chooses to seek another term.
The Western Conservative Summit, held in Colorado on Saturday, did a straw poll of attendees. For the second year in a row, DeSantis edged out Trump as the favored choice of those at the conference.
The Florida governor garnered the backing of 71.01 percent of straw poll respondents. Trump came in close behind in second place with the support of 67.68 percent. Because voters were allowed to make more than one choice, through the approval voting method, the percentages of the poll added up to more than 100 percent.
There Are Signs That Some Republicans Are Less Positive About Him Since The Jan 6 Assault On The Capitol But His Base Holds Firm And That Might Be All He Needs If He Seeks The Gop Nomination In 2024
No one should underestimate former president Donald Trumps standing within the Republican Party, especially the passionate allegiance of a substantial part of the GOP base. But there are signs that, since the assault on the Capitol last year, his support within the party may not be quite as robust as it once was.
The suggestion that he has slipped comes with a sizable caveat. Majorities of Republicans have bought into Trumps false claims about the 2020 election. A Washington Post-University of Maryland survey, completed at the end of last year, found that more than 6 in 10 Republicans said there is solid evidence that there was widespread fraud in the 2020 election. Nearly 6 in 10 say President Bidens election was not legitimate.
More Republicans say they want Trump to run again in 2024 than say they want another candidate. Its not clear how widespread the enthusiasm for another Trump presidential campaign really is. But its even less clear that there is any Republican who could deny him the nomination, at least as things now stand.
Still, the Donald Trump of 2022 does not look quite like the Donald Trump of old. One indication of this change came with the release of a new poll from NBC News. Over the course of Trumps presidency and since he left office, the poll has tracked attitudes of Republicans, asking them whether they see themselves mainly as supporters of Trump or mainly supporters of the party itself.
Question22 How Much Of The Responsibility If Any Do You Think Former President Trump Bears For The Storming Of The Us Capitol On January 6th: A Lot Some Not Much Or None At All
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoA lot 42% 5% 81% 36% 33% 50% 53% 27%Some 15 15 11 19 18 13 11 14Not much 13 21 1 17 16 10 14 18None at all 27 56 5 26 31 25 20 37DK/NA 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspA lot 39% 42% 42% 46% 28% 43% 36% 77% 42%Some 23 17 12 8 13 13 13 9 20Not much 13 10 13 16 20 14 17 2 12None at all 23 25 30 29 36 27 31 10 25DK/NA 2 5 2 1 4 3 4 1 1
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Question9 Overall Do You Think Donald Trump Has Had A Mainly Positive Or Mainly Negative Impact On
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoPositive 41% 84% 4% 45% 48% 35% 37% 58%Negative 51 9 94 47 44 58 60 36DK/NA 8 7 2 8 8 7 4 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspPositive 33% 36% 47% 49% 57% 45% 50% 12% 37%Negative 56 54 47 49 36 50 44 81 51DK/NA 11 9 6 3 7 5 6 7 12
Question21 As You May Know A Special Congressional Committee Is Investigating The Storming Of The Us Capitol That Occurred On January 6th And It Has Issued Several Subpoenas To Witnesses As Part Of Its Investigation Do You Want To Hear More Information About What Led To The Events Of That Day Or Do You Think Enough Is Already Known About What Led To The Events Of That Day
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoWant to hear more 40% 22% 59% 38% 38% 42% 57% 36%Enough already known 56 74 38 58 58 54 41 59DK/NA 4 3 3 4 4 5 3 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspWant to hear more 40% 37% 41% 42% 41% 45% 43% 34% 33%Enough already known 57 57 54 56 54 52 53 61 63DK/NA 3 6 5 2 5 3 4 5 5
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Question20 Since The 2020 Presidential Election Do You Think That Donald Trump Has Been Undermining Democracy Or Protecting Democracy
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoUndermining 51% 8% 94% 48% 44% 56% 60% 35%Protecting 39 85 4 40 43 35 33 53DK/NA 11 6 2 12 12 9 7 12 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspUndermining 54% 52% 50% 49% 36% 50% 43% 83% 52%Protecting 28 38 44 44 50 42 46 11 35DK/NA 18 9 6 7 13 8 10 6 13
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Attitudes on whether Americans think Trump is responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol remain relatively stable. In the new ABC News/Ipsos poll, 58% of Americans think Trump bears a “great deal” or a “good amount” of responsibility for the attack on the Capitol. This is unchanged from an ABC News/Ipsos poll in December 2021 and similar to the findings of an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted just after the attack in January 2021.
The poll divides along party lines, with 91% of Democrats thinking Trump should be charged with a crime compared to 19% of Republicans. On whether Trump bears a “great deal” or a “good amount” of responsibility for the attack, 91% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans say he does.
Among self-described independents, 62% think Trump should be charged and 61% think he bears a “great deal” or a “good amount” of responsibility.
The ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted after the committee held its third of seven public hearings scheduled for this month, which detail what the committee says was a “sophisticated, seven-part plan” by Trump and his supporters to overturn his 2020 election loss to President Joe Biden.
On Friday, Trump lambasted the hearing, calling the panel “con artists,” while continuing to air false claims about the 2020 election.
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Ad Watch: Primary Meddling
The Democratic Governors Association is hitting Illinois Republican candidate for governor, Richard Irvin but not from where you might expect.
In a new ad out Thursday, the DGA hits Irvin for being soft on crime, an attack usually used by Republicans. The ad highlights Irvins career as a defense attorney, with a narrator saying he by defending some of the most violent and heinous criminals, domestic abusers and sexual assault, a kidnapper who molested a child, reckless homicide, even accused child pornographers. Irwin told Politico the ad was part of a smear campaign against him.
The ad comes just a week after Senate Republicans attacked Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson during her Supreme Court confirmation hearings for being soft on crime as a public defender, while Democrats backed her, saying attorneys have a duty to represent clients no matter what crimes they may have committed.
Thats why this ad raises eyebrows Democrats are putting their name on an ad attacking a conservative candidate from the right, picking a lane usually reserved for Republicans. Some saw it as a ploy to meddle in the GOP primary and ultimately bolster Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, whos running for re-election. Pritzker donated $250,000 to the DGA last year, according to Politico, but his campaign downplayed the donation.
A federal judge blocked much of Floridas new restrictive voting law Thursday, but the ruling will likely be appealed, NBCs Jane C. Timm reports.
Top Dem Super Pac To Party: It Could Get Much Worse
Biden has also publicly said he plans to run for reelection. The super PAC supporting him, Unite The Country, is similarly gearing up in the five states the Trump campaign has focused on, first with an eye on the midterms and then the presidential race in 2024.
Steve Schale, CEO for Unite The Country, said he had no reason to doubt Fabrizios polling for Trump as Bidens poll numbers have dropped for months. But Schale noted that midterm polling a year out is hardly predictive of what happens in a presidential election in three years.
There are historical headwinds were facing, that any president faces during a midterm: five of the last seven midterm elections have been wave cycles for the other party, Schale said.
He recalled that then-President Barack Obama won reelection after Democrats were crushed in his first midterm election in 2010, and predicted that, if Republicans recapture Congress, they will veer too far right and damage Trumps chances in 2024.
Still, after Democrats were humbled in Virginias statewide races earlier this month, Schale issued a memo to donors saying it was a wake-up call for the party and pledged a seven-figure ad campaign to tout Bidens accomplishments in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The polling from Fabrizio suggests that Biden could use the help. On 10 different issues ranging from immigration to gun control to the economy, Trump bests Biden in the swing states, often by double digits, according to the poll.
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Areas Of Agreement: Criminal Justice Reform And Health Care Coverage
Notably, Americans of different political stripes all generally support less punitive criminal justice measures. More than three-quarters of Americans support a law in their state requiring drug treatment instead of jail time for people convicted of illegal drug use for the first or second offense, including 88% of Democrats, 75% of independents, and 73% of Republicans. Similarly, three-quarters of Americans support eliminating mandatory minimum prison sentences so that judges can make sentencing decisions on a case-by-case basis, including 79% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans, and 71% of independents. Seven in ten Americans also favor allowing a person who has been convicted of a felony to vote after he or she has completed his or her sentence, including 85% of Democrats, 66% of independents, and 63% of Republicans.
Americans are also united in their support for health care coverage protections for people with preexisting conditions. Nearly nine in ten Americans, including 93% of Democrats, 91% of Republicans, and 85% of independents, favor such protections.
Bannon Threatens Jan 6 Committee Staffers On Tucker Carlson Hours After Contempt Conviction
Steve Bannon has accused the staffers of the January 6 House Committee of broadcasting lies on national television, just hours after his contempt conviction.
The former White House chief strategist has been held guilty of contempt of Congress for ignoring a subpoena from the House panel.
Talking to Fox News TV host Tucker Carlson, Bannon said: We have to have a real January 6 committee, including to get to the staffers now and see about the lies and misrepresentation they put on the national television to defame people.
I would tell the Jan 6 staff: right, preserve your documents because theres going to be a real committee and this is going to be backed by Republican grassroot voters to say we want to get to the bottom of this for the good of the nation, he said.
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Religious Affiliation And Attendance
As in previous elections, voters in 2016 were sharply divided along religious lines. Protestants constituted about half of the electorate and reported voting for Trump over Clinton by a 56% to 39% margin. Catholics were more evenly divided 52% reported voting for Trump, while 44% said they backed Clinton. Conversely, a solid majority of the religiously unaffiliated atheists, agnostics and those who said their religion was nothing in particular said they voted for Clinton over Trump .
Within the Protestant tradition, voters were divided by race and evangelicalism. White evangelical Protestants, who constituted one out of every five voters, consistently have been among the strongest supporters of Republican candidates and supported Trump by a 77% to 16% margin.
This is nearly identical to the 78% to 16% advantage that Mitt Romney held over Barack Obama among white evangelicals in Pew Research Center polling on the eve of the 2012 presidential election.
Among white mainline Protestants 57% said they voted for Trump and 37% reported voting for Clinton. Clinton won overwhelmingly among black Protestants .
White non-Hispanic Catholics supported Trump by a ratio of about two-to-one , while Hispanic Catholics favored Clinton by an even larger 78% to 19% margin.
Immigrant Capitol Police Officer Still Deals With Pain
Among the many insults he received on Jan. 6, 2021, as he defended the Capitol in Washington, Capitol Police Sergeant Aquilino Gonell remembers hearing cries that he was not an American, that he was an immigrant, that he was a traitor.
A year and a half after the assault by thousands of supporters of former President Donald Trump, Gonell, who was born in the Dominican Republic, says he regrets that an immigrant like him denounces what happened while politicians and others born in the United States remain silent.
It is sad that I, as an immigrant, take things more seriously than the same people who swore to defend the country and the Constitution and that those people who were born here have not had the courage to take a step forward, say what they know and say who was involved without having been forced into it by a subpoena, Gonell, 43 said in a telephone interview with the Associated Press.
Trump supporters who violently stormed the Capitol did so in an attempt to stop the certification of Democrat Joe Bidens 2020 electoral victory.
Many Republicans even those who condemned Trump and the violence at the time have opposed efforts to investigate. They say Democrats, through the House Jan. 6 committee, are trying to politicize the issue, gain supporters and push electoral reforms that they consider radical.
Gonell has testified in some of the court cases and is collaborating with authorities on the investigations.
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Ballotpedia’s Polling Index: Opinion Polling During The Trump Administration
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| Polling indexes: Opinion polling during the Trump administration |
During President Donald Trump‘s term, Ballotpedia tracked 2,895 approval polls from 21 polling firms that asked voters about the direction of the country and their approval of Congress’ and President Trump’s job performance. This page is an overview of opinion polling averages during Trump’s term. Ballotpedia’s polling indexes are an average of polls that measure public sentiment on presidential job approval, congressional job approval, and satisfaction with the overall direction of the country.
Ballotpedia’s polling index was updated daily on weekdays from January 27, 2017, through the end of President Trump’s term on January 20, 2021. The most recent poll released by each qualifying source was included in each day’s opinion averages. Polls were removed from the opinion averages when the pollster released a more recent poll or if 30 days had passed since the poll had been in the field, whichever occurred first. This means that all the figures on this page, even those referring to specific dates, are averages from across multiple polls rather than numbers taken from any one poll.
To view the current polling index, click here. For a comparison of opinion polling under the Trump and Biden administrations, click here.
On this page, you will find coverage of three polling averages:
Missouri Democrats Planning Hawlin Hawley 5k Race
Democratic leaders in Missouri have planned a race to mock Republican senator Josh Hawley in response to the footage released by the January 6 committee which showed him scampering through the halls away from the Capitol rioters mere hours after he was photographed raising a fist in solidarity with the mob.
The fresh visuals have paved the way for memes and jokes on the senator, including from Democrats in Missouri, who have announced a 5K virtual race on Saturday.
Arpan Rai reports.
Footage released by January 6 committee showed him scampering through halls away from Capitol rioters mere hours after he was photographed raising a fist in solidarity with mob
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