Bloomberg Viewed As Having Best Chance To Beat Trump In Betting Market Analysis
Former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergDonald TrumpRepublicans fret over Trumps influence in Missouri Senate raceSenate confirms first Korean-American woman as federal appeals judgeMORE if nominated, according to a newly released betting market analysis.
However, the analysis from researchers at Standard Chartered Bank, first reported by CNBC, also found that Bloomberg is viewed as having a 10 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Our interpretation of online market pricing is that Bloomberg is viewed as having the highest chance among Democrats of beating Trump if nominated. But his nomination probabilities are currently running just over 10 percent, the study states.
The research shows that among the top-polling candidates, Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenPoll: 71 percent support Bidens omicron travel ban Invest in kids and families now so that someday Ill be out of a jobMORE are the two candidates viewed as having the highest chances of winning given perceptions about how friendly they would be for asset markets.
Among investors, Bloomberg and Biden are probably viewed as the most asset-market friendly among the Democratic candidates, so their greater implied electability may be why US assets are not showing more stress, the researchers wrote.
The former mayor has spent more than $200 million on his campaign so far and has said he may spend up to $1 billion to defeat Trump, even if he is not the nominee.
Who Has The Best Chance To Beat Trump
Reflecting recent polls, readers dont agree on a particular candidate.
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To the Editor:
The election is going to be won or lost depending on which party gets voters to show up to vote, and who sits at home.
For over 30 years, the moderate wing has controlled the Democratic Party sometimes successfully, too often not. Moderates have wasted valuable time and effort trying to negotiate with Republicans when Republicans see negotiation as a sign of weakness. Rather than leading with ideas, Democratic leaders check the latest polls before making a decision. Far too often they have run timid instead of standing up for what they believe.
Now we are faced with the most important election of our lives, and moderates are telling us how terrible it will be if we nominate a liberal. I dont agree with Bernie Sanders on a lot of issues and would much rather see Elizabeth Warren as the leader of the liberal wing of the party, but both have the passion and fight to stand up for what they believe.
If we want minorities and young people to show up on Election Day, I would trust either of them over Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Michael Bloomberg or Joe Biden.
I fear that a moderate candidate will lose to President Trump.
John HallinanStoughton, Wis.
To the Editor:
Tim Taylor
Charles BeckerNovato, Calif.
To the Editor:
Donald Trump’s Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election
Trump had been sitting atop the odds board at +300 for the last couple of months but his chances have dipped slightly following the midterms. He now trails DeSantis, who he originally helped launch into the national spotlight after he backed him in a tight race in 2018, and is in lockstep with President Biden.
Political pundits predicted a red wave during the midterms and while the Republicans narrowly won the House, they massively underperformed as a whole. Many Trump-endorsed candidates disappointed during the midterms, lending credence to arguments that his brand of politics will have a tough time gaining traction at the national level.
GOP mega-donors like Ronald Lauder, Andy Sabin, Steve Schwarzman, and Ken Griffin have publically said they won’t fund Trump in the primary, with Griffin going as far as calling the former president a three-time loser and saying its time the country moves forward.
That said, while Trump’s support among potential Republican votes has dipped in recent months he still earned 48% of the vote in a recent survey while DeSantis had 26%.
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Yamiche Alcindor: Polls Show Gop Voters Want Someone Other Than Trump
DeSantis, who is not expected to announce whether he will run until after Florida’s legislative session in the spring or summer, has quickly emerged as the leading alternative to Trump among GOP primary voters. He won re-election last month by nearly 20 points over Democratic former Gov. Charlie Crist, and he is clearly the rival about whom Trump is most concerned.
“DeSantis is rising, and Trump is increasingly scared of being left for dead by the Republican Party,” said Dan Eberhart, a GOP donor who is backing DeSantis. “Trump is not going to let DeSantis grab his throne without a fight. We are on the eve of nothing less than a civil war in the Republican Party.”
Trump allies caution that primaries are more than a year away, noting that other polls show Trump in a much stronger position and that all of the surveys are snapshots in time.
“For every bad poll, there’s a good poll,” said a person close to Trump, who is the only candidate in the race for the time being.
A DeSantis adviser declined to comment for this story.
The hypothetical head-to-head matchups assume that Trump and DeSantis are the only candidates who get support from GOP primary voters. But there is a long list of Republican figures who are looking at potential bids, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley.
âThe thing about DeSantis is he hasnât been punched,â the strategist said.
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New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand A Serious Threat To Win
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is a serious threat simply by the fact she represents the powerful Empire State. Aged 52, she’s married to venture capitalist Jonathan Gillibrand. Polls indicate Kamala Harris is the biggest threat. Of those who would be happy with the New Yorker, 75 per cent would be satisfied with the Californian.
Cory Booker Roy Cooper Mark Kelly Ro Khanna Amy Klobuchar Phil Murphy Jared Polis Jb Pritzker Raphael Warnock Elizabeth Warren Gretchen Whitmer
Eight years ago, the knock on Democrats was they had no bench of promising candidates. That was in large part because Democrats had so few governors, just 18, and only a handful from red or purple states. Nobody would say that today, in part because their gubernatorial ranks have grown to 24.
Arguably the biggest standout is Michigans Gretchen Whitmer, who survived not just conservative protests over her handling of the pandemic, but a literal kidnapping plot . In November she was re-elected by a 10.6-point margin, slightly larger than her initial win four years ago. Few heartland Democrats are more battle-tested.
Other governors who have delicately eyed running in 2024 if Biden doesnt reportedly include North Carolinas Roy Cooper, Colorados Jared Polis, Illinois J.B. Pritzker and New Jerseys Phil Murphy. Pritzker was praised this year for his handling of the Highland Park July 4th mass shooting. Murphy signed a major gun control package, including a training requirement for obtaining a firearm license. Polis has stood out as a Democrat with a libertarian streak, particularly in regards to the pandemic . The low-key Cooper wins plaudits simply for being a Democrat who can win in the South.
Plus, as Democrats ponder how to keep recently flipped states blue, they cant help but be intrigued by the midterm re-elections of Arizonas Mark Kelly and Georgias Raphael Warnock, though neither has made any overt hints about running for president.
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Outgoing Gov Larry Hogan Of Maryland
Even before the bruising 2022 midterms, Hogan, 66, was warning that Republicans couldn’t continue down the path they are on. “I am not about to give up on the Republican party or America,” he wrote on Twitter in early December. “None of us can. It’s too important.”
The two-term governor who beat a 2015 cancer scare has been fired up about plotting his next act.
Hogan, a centrist Republican, is already making the rounds in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. A nonprofit group aligned with him reported raising $2 million in 2021, some of which was spent on “supporter acquisition” and “audience building.”
And Hogan recently scored some face time with GOP mega donors at this year’s Republican Jewish Coalition leadership meeting mentioning to political reporters covering the event that he and other potential 2024 hopefuls were there because “maybe there’s a little blood in the water.” Trump was notably absent at the event, but did video-conference in.
As governor, Hogan signed a gun control bill into law and has said that while he opposed abortion, he wouldn’t move to gut the state’s guarantee on reproductive rights. During the COVID-19 pandemic he instituted a statewide mask mandate, then lifted restrictions in May 2021.
While he has yet to formally declare a 2024 run, Hogan has begun billing himself as a “commonsense conservative” who GOP voters sick of losing may want to consider.
Ron Desantis’ Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election
The biggest riser on the presidential election odds board is DeSantis, who was +6,600 a year ago, +550 at the start of July, and is now at +200 .
DeSantis won his first gubernatorial race by less than a percentage point but triumphed by nearly 20 points this time around, making a case that he has a better chance of defeating the Dems in a general election.
At 44 years old, DeSantis is just entering his political prime and has become a Republican firebrand figure for his laissez-faire policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, his enactment of the Stop WOKE Act, and his efforts to curb illegal immigration.
If DeSantis does announce he intends to run for the party nomination things could get messy between the former allies with Trump already mocking him as “Ron DeSanctimonious.”
Trump warned DeSantis against entering the presidential race on Tuesday, telling reporters, “I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering I know more about him than anybody other than, perhaps, his wife.”
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Sen Josh Hawley Of Missouri
Hawley, 42, has reached for the spotlight whenever possible while Congress is in session.
From famously saluting the January 6 protestors on the day of the violent siege at the Capitol to holding Brown Jackson’s feet to the fire as she raced to join the Supreme Court, the first-term lawmaker works to portray himself as the perennial outsider who’s only here to shake things up.
He’s played up the part by voting to overturn the 2020 election results on behalf of MAGA vote-magnet Trump, butting heads with McConnell on the way the upper chamber is run, and blaming short-sighted leaders for running the party into the ground.
“When your ‘agenda’ is cave to Big Pharma on insulin, cave to Schumer on gun control & Green New Deal , and tease changes to Social Security and Medicare, you lose,” Hawley, bemoaned on Twitter following a demoralizing midterms performance by flawed GOP candidates, which he blamed on “Washington Republicanism.”
The potential 2024 contender followed up with some suggestions, floating an alternative vision he said would help “unrig the system.”
“What are Republicans actually going to do for working people? How about, to start: tougher tariffs on China, reshore American jobs, open up American energy full throttle, 100k new cops on the street,” Hawley, who was also Missouri’s former attorney general, tossed out on his social media feed.
Bad Numbers Getting Worse
Trumps polling has been soft for more than a year, with the percentage of Republicans who want him to run consistently falling 20 points or more below his approval ratings. He has found it difficult to score above 50 percent on ballot tests against Republicans who arent even running yet.
And those numbers are getting worse.
Both YouGov and Morning Consult conducted post-election benchmarks, and Trumps fortunes are falling across the board. Morning Consult has the best polling for Trump, but Trumps favorable rating with Republicans edged below 80 percent. While 61 percent of Republicans still want Trump to run, 73 percent of independents dont. Trumps ballot test against DeSantis fell from a 48 percent to 26 percent advantage pre-midterm to a 47 percent to 33 percent advantage, down 8 points.
The YouGov poll is a disaster for Trump. In one week Trump fell from 81 percent approval to 77 percent. Far worse, Republicans who want him to run collapsed from 60 percent to just 47 percent. DeSantis holds a 46 percent to 39 percent advantage on the ballot test. YouGov polled all voters on a Trump-DeSantis ballot and every demographic preferred DeSantis, except Hispanics who were split evenly. Conservatives favored DeSantis 51 percent to 33 percent, a catastrophe for Trump.
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Trump Ally To Make Bid For Georgia Governor
Des Moines, Iowa Sen. Elizabeth Warren made a forceful case in Tuesday nights debate that a woman can win the White House, tackling the unpopular question that has loomed over the presidential race since Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton since 2016 buttressing her argument by pointing to the electoral losses of the men standing alongside her on stage.
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Poll: Half Of Republicans Right
Fifty percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents think the party has a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if former President Donald Trump is the partys nominee, according to a poll released earlier this week.
The NPR/PBS NewsHour/ Marist National Poll, which was conducted before the Virginia election on Tuesday, found that 35% of respondents want someone other than Trump, while 14% said they didnt know.
Meanwhile, more than 40% of Democrats think the party might just have a better chance to win the White House in 2024 if President Joe Biden isnt on the ballot, said the poll.
Forty-four percent of Democrats and independents said they lean Democratic prefer another candidate to run, while 36% said they want Biden to run again. Twenty percent werent sure.
The poll also found that just 44% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing, while 49% disapprove.
Biden said in Rome on Sunday that hes not concerned about his flagging numbers. the way, look, the polls are going to go up and down, and up and down. They were higher early. Then they got medium. Then back up and now theyre low, he told reporters.
at every other president. The same thing has happened, but thats not why I ran. I didnt run to determine how well Im going to do in the polls, he said.
The survey also found that Americans are losing faith in the electoral process.
Other findings include:
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Betting Odds For President Donald Trump
Before we weigh each of the Democrats chances of beating Trump, we need to look at the odds for Trump himself and determine if his chances are rising or falling.
Donald Trump
- % Change: +7.62%
- Trump has been favored to win re-election since the start of the year and his chances of winning have continued to rise in 2019. This is likely due to two factors: 1) Were slowly getting closer to the election and incumbents always have an edge and 2) The public money does not believe he will be impeached, which gives him a clear path to be on the ballot as the Republican nominee when the 2020 election rolls around whereas the Democratic nomination is much more uncertain.
Sanders Viewed As Best Candidate To Beat Trump By Democrats And Independents Who Watched Latest Debates: Poll
A plurality of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who watched either of the two most recent presidential debates believe Sen. Bernie Sanders has the best chance of defeating President Donald Trump in November, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll out Friday.
The empirical evidence shows that there is no need for alarm about Mr. Sanders being the Democratic nominee, and even some cause for confidence. Steve Phillips, Center for American Progress
The survey found that 34% of Democrats who watched any part of the Nevada debate last week or the South Carolina debate on Tuesday view Sanders as the most electable Democratic contender, while 25% chose former Vice President Joe Biden.
Just 15% said billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg has the best chance of beating Trump.
Of the top two candidates, those under age 50 were much more likely to say Sanders is the strongest candidate to face Trump, and Biden was considered best positioned by those over 50,ABC Newsreported.
The poll was based on a survey of 639 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents between Feb. 26-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
After seeing either of the ninth and tenth debates, 34% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Bernie Sanders has the best chance of defeating the incumbent president, per new News/Ipsos poll.
ABC News Politics
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