Trump’s Approval Rating Craters In Final Days
After four years of stability, the outgoing presidents poll numbers have reached new lows following last weeks Capitol insurrection.
President Donald Trumps slide means he will leave the Oval Office historically unpopular compared with most of his predecessors.
01/13/2021 06:00 AM EST
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Tarnished by last weeks riot at the Capitol, Donald Trump is ending his presidency with his lowest-ever poll numbers.
A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll pegs Trumps approval at just 34 percent, the lowest in four years of tracking opinions of the presidents job performance. More than six in 10 voters 63 percent disapprove.
That matches other polls conducted over the past week showing Trumps approval rating sliding roughly 10 points following the Capitol riots which Democrats and some Republicans say Trump incited with his false and bellicose rhetoric about the 2020 presidential election.
For nearly four years, Trumps approval ratings have been extraordinarily stable, ranging between the high 30s and high 40s. Trumps denial of the election results and the sacking of the Capitol, however, have managed to do what a failed effort to repeal Obamacare, the white-supremacist violence in Charlottesville, Va., impeachment and other scandals couldnt: erode his once-durable support to new lows.
The drop among independents was similar: Fewer than three in 10 independent voters now approve of Trump 29 percent, down from 38 percent in December.
Polling Average Put Biden’s Approval Rating Higher Than 39%
Experts say approval ratings should be calculated by looking at an average between polls not a single poll. On the day the claim was made, the polling average for Biden’s approval rating was 45.2%.
“The best practice to look at multiple polls and not to fixate on an individual poll, which can be cherry-picked to make inaccurate arguments,” Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in an email.
The website FiveThirtyEight rates how different polls vary in terms of accuracy and statistical bias. It calculates approval ratings for presidents based on a weighted average that takes into account poll quality and uncertainty.
According to that polling average, Biden’s approval rate was 45.2% on the day the claim was posted.
The Facebook post appeared to refer to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 4-7. It reported 39% of American adults approved of Biden. YouGov noted this was the first time the majority of Americans disapproved of Biden during his presidency.
However, Burden told USA TODAY this poll was “unusually low.”
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“In the last month YouGov has also reported approval ratings of 44% and 50%,” he said. “Taken as a group it is more accurate to say that Biden’s rating is hovering in the mid-40s.”
The Big Enthusiasm Gap Against Trump
Beyond the topline of Trumps approval rating, CNN also asked how strongly Americans approved or disapproved of Trumps job performance. The percentage who moderately approve is similar to the percentage who moderately disapprove .
The real nugget is that the 45% who strongly disapprove is significantly higher than the 28% who strongly approve. That 17-point gap is wider than the 7-point gap we found in April of this year.
Whats so interesting about that is some form of enthusiasm gap on approval exists across age, gender, race and even education levels.
Now, its not unusual for there to be an enthusiasm gap in which more people strongly disapprove than strongly approve of a president. We saw it with George W. Bush and Barack Obama at roughly this point in their presidencies.
The difference is that Trumps is much larger. Obamas strongly disapprove rating in CNN polling was never more than 10 points higher than his strongly approve rating through his first three years in office. The same held true with Bush.
Coming into 2020, its easy to imagine that Trump may lack the enthusiastic supporters he will likely need to overcome what looks to be an unpopular standing overall.
By Annie Karni
Throughout four years of scandals and investigations, President Trump has maintained an approval rating that rarely budged from a 10-point band between 35 and 45 percent. Nothing he could say, do or tweet appeared to dramatically change public opinion of him.
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Is America Ready To Reopen
The country is at the start of whats likely to be a long political fight over when to begin reopening.
In California, the stay-at-home order has no end date. In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp is planning to start reopening this Friday.
We want to hear from you! Is America ready to open for business? Or, do you think the lockdown needs to last a little longer?
Write me at and your response could be featured in a future newsletter. Be sure to include your name and location. And if youre so inclined, tell us how youve been managing life, work and sanity in the coronavirus era.
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When Will Joe Biden Be Sworn In
President=elect Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States .
Donald Trump is planning to leave the White House early and says he wont be attending the ceremony the first president in over 100 years not to hand the job to their successor in person.
Celebs including Jennifer Lopez and Lady Gaga are expected to perform at the Inauguration, where security will be higher than ever following the storming of the Capitol on January 6.
You can watch the inauguration on most major American news networks, including CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS News and Fox News.
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Fact Check: Is Donald Trump’s Popularity ‘through The Roof’ Since Fbi Raid
Donald Trump’s war of words following the raid on his Mar-a-Lago residence has been as much a part of the story as the findings of the FBI search.
The former president’s accusations have included that the bureau planted evidence, that the raid was a search for Hillary Clinton emails, as well as making calls for a “new election” that could reinstate him.
Despite the real possibility of prosecution, Trump has also said that the raid, far from damaging his reputation, has actually propped up his popularity.
The Claim
A tweet posted on September 1, 2022, included a video in which Donald Trump said his poll numbers had “gone through the roof” because of the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.
Trump this morning on the search: My poll numbers have gone through the roof because of it. Ive never been involved in an event thats driven me up like this.
Ron Filipkowski
The Facts
It’s not clear which polls Trump is referring to. As he no longer serves as a political leader, and has not officially confirmed his intention to run for office in 2024, there are fewer live trackers of his approval ratings, as there were when he was president.
Most polls are published through think tanks and media outlets which may have their own political leanings and/or choose to work with a polling company that is more likely to represent groups of one political persuasion.
Donald Trumps Approval Rating Reaches Highest Point Since 2017 As Administration Battles Coronavirus New Poll Shows
President Donald Trumps approval rating reached its highest point in three years Tuesday as his administration continues to battle the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new poll.
The CNN poll conducted by SSRS, an independent research company, found that 45 percent of respondents approve of the way Trump is handling his job, while 51 percent disapprove and 4 percent had no opinion. The poll surveyed 1,112 people and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.
Trumps approval rating has hit 45 percent only one other time during his presidency, and that was less than two months after he took office in 2017. That poll showed the president had a 45 percent approval rating, with 52 percent disapproving, on March 5, 2017.
The new CNN poll showed that 42 percent of people believe the federal government is doing a good job at preventing the spread of the novel coronavirus in the United States. That rating is down from a CNN poll result in early March, in which 49 percent said the federal government was doing a good job in combating the pandemic while 43 percent said it was doing a poor job.
The U.S. now has over 1.35 million confirmed cases of the coronavirus, with 81,650 deaths reported, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. So far, 232,733 people have recovered from the viruss disease, COVID-19.
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Voters Were Asked Whether They Would Vote For The Democratic Or Republican Candidate If The Election For Us Congress Was Held In Their District Today
Bidens impact on the midterm ballot
- Morning Consults generic ballot test in June 2018, at a similar place in the midterm cycle, found no such discrepancy: Voters who disapproved of Trump were just as likely to say theyd vote for the Democratic candidate as voters who approved of him were to back a Republican.
- The GOP has made gains on the generic ballot since Morning Consult began tracking the question this cycle, with congressional Republicans now tied with Democrats, compared with a deficit of 4 percentage points in September.
The latest Morning Consult/Politico survey was conducted June 4-5, 2022, among a representative sample of 2,006 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Real Clear Politics Trump Approval Rating: 408 Percent
In mid-September, Real Clear Politicswhich tracks numerous polls to find an averagefound the president to have a 40.8 percent approval rating, compared to 53.6 percent who disapproved of him.
The number was a downturn for Trump, who Real Clear Politics found had a 42.9 percent approval rating in mid-July, a notch higher than his 42.4 percent approval rating the month before.
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Half Of Republican Respondents Said Former President Should Play Major Role In Partys Future
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Former president Donald Trumps popularity rating among Republicans has begun to bounce back since he left office, with half of respondents saying they think he should play a major role in the GOPs future.
According to tracking by Morning Consult, 81 per cent of Republican voters polled between 23 to 25 January hold positive views of Mr Trump, including 54 per cent who do so strongly.
The number marks an improvement on the 76 per cent low of Republican voters who favoured him in tracking between 10 and 12 of January ahead of his impeachment when those who strongly favoured Mr Trump sat at 49 per cent.
Fifty percent of Republican voters in a poll by the company between the 22 and 25 of January also think Mr Trump should maintain a significant role in the partys future, an increase of nine percentage points since the insurrection.
The former presidents popularity dropped following the 6 January when pro-Trump supporters attacked the Capitol as lawmakers gathered to certify Joe Bidens win, vandalising and looting the building.
The samples included responses from more than 4,400 Republican voters, with margins of error of 1 point.
Nearly half of Republican voters disapprove of McConnells approach to impeachment, while 32 percent approve of how hes tackled the issue.
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Key Findings From The Times/siena College Poll
The first poll of the midterm cycle.The New York Times has released its first national survey of the 2022 midterm cycle. Heres what to know:
Bidens struggles to win approval.President Biden is facing an alarming level of doubt from inside his own party, with 64 percent of Democratic voters saying they would prefer a new standard-bearer in 2024. Voters nationwide, meanwhile, gave Mr. Biden a meager 33 percent job-approval rating, and only 13 percent said the nation was on the right track.
Some in G.O.P. are ready to leave Trump behind.As the former president weighs another White House bid, nearly half of Republican primary voters would prefer someone other than Mr. Trump for president in 2024, with a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.
A tight race for Congress.Despite Mr. Bidens low approval ratings, Democrats are roughly tied with Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Among registered voters, 41 percent said they preferred Democrats to control Congress compared with 40 percent who preferred Republicans.
The class divide widens.Voters who said abortion, guns or threats to democracy were the biggest problem facing the country backed Democrats by a wide margin, as Republicans make new inroads among nonwhite and working-class voters who remain more concerned about the economy.
Still, many Republicans who favor someone else in a primary would nonetheless rally behind Mr. Trump if he won the nomination.
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
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Voxs German Lopez is here to guide you through the Biden administrations burst of policymaking. .
As for Trump, Bidens 42.9 percent approval rating right now is only slightly higher than Trumps 42 percent on the eve of the 2018 midterms, when Republicans lost 40 House seats.
The one potential silver lining for Biden is that the trajectory of Trumps numbers shows that some improvement in the second year is possible, albeit rare. Trumps approval rating hit its lowest point in 2017 but improved by about 5 points over 2018, which likely helped him avoid an even worse midterm defeat. It is possible that if conditions in the country improve, Bidens numbers could rebound.
Of course, things could also get worse.
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The Claim: President Joe Bidens Approval Rating Is 39% And Lower Than Donald Trumps Ever Was
After the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August, President Joe Bidens approval ratings took a hit. But some online posts exaggerate the depth of the drop.
Text in reads, Joe Bidens approval falls to 39 percent, worse than Trumps approval ever. The post did not indicate which poll its referring to.
A similar post accumulated 46,000 likes in six days before it was deleted. Other claims in this vein have racked up hundreds of interactions on Facebook and Instagram, according to CrowdTangle, a social media insights tool.
The claim is misleading. While one poll did put Bidens approval rating at 39%, the polling average a more accurate measure of a presidents popularity put it higher. Experts say Bidens approval rating, the lowest since he took office, is still higher than Trumps term low.
USA TODAY reached out to several social media users who shared the claim for comment.
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Ballotpedia’s Polling Index: Comparison Of Opinion Polling During The Trump And Biden Administrations
| Cabinet White House staff Transition team |
| Policy positions |
Weeks covered: 79
This page compares overall trends in opinion polling averages during the presidency of Joe Biden to those during the presidency of Donald Trump . Ballotpedia’s polling indexes are an average of polls that measure public sentiment on presidential job approval, congressional job approval, and satisfaction with the overall direction of the country.
Ballotpedia’s polling indexes are updated every weekday based on opinion polls released by qualifying sources. The most recent poll released by each qualifying source is included in the overall polling average. Polls are removed from the average when the same source releases a more recent poll or 30 days after the poll was last in the field, whichever occurred first. This page looks at these polling numbers on a week-over-week basis, starting with the first full workweek of the new president’s term. This means that the numbers on this page are all weekly averages of daily average poll results.
To view the current polling index, click here. For a detailed look at opinion polling during the Trump administration, including a full list of qualifying polls taken, click here.
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