Donald Trump Has Become More Popular Since The January 6 Capitol Attack
Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
Former President Donald Trump still manages to dominate the political headlines, nearly a year and half after leaving office. On Thursday, the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol used its first prime-time hearing to make the case that Trump used his power to try and overturn the 2020 election result.
Republican Voters On Their Preferred Candidate For President
If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Donald
Asked of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022. Respondents who answered someone else or did not offer a response are not shown.
The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.
While about one-fourth of Republicans said they didnt know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well-liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSantis similar to the 46 percent who said the same about Mr. Trump.
Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial: Mr. Trump held a 62 percent to 26 percent advantage over Mr. DeSantis among Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mainly receive their news from another source.
Mr. Trumps troubles inside his party leave him hamstrung in a matchup against an unusually vulnerable incumbent.
White People And Acculturated Hispanics
Pew found in a June 2016 survey of both Republican and Democratic voters that Trump’s popularity lies primarily in white people half of whom supported Trump, while just seven percent of Black voters supported him. He was more popular among Hispanic voters than among Blacks, capturing the support of about a quarter of them.
Interestingly, Pew found though that support for Trump among Hispanics came primarily from English-dominant voters. In fact, the English-dominant Hispanic electorate was closely split between Clinton and Trump, at 48 percent for Clinton, and 41 for Trump. Among bilingual or Spanish-dominant Hispanics, 80 percent intended to vote for Clinton and just 11 percent indicated they would choose Trump. This signals a relationship between one’s level of acculturation the adoption of the dominant, mainstream culture and voter preference. It likely also signals a positive relationship between the number of generations an immigrant family has been in the U.S. and preference for Trump.
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Trump Still Wont Shut Up Hes Doing Democrats Running For Office A Huge Favor
Trump is framing the midterms as a referendum on his continuing influence over the Republican party even as polls show most voters want him to go away
The beginning of May before midterm elections marks the start of primary season and six months of fall campaigning. The conventional view this year is that Democrats will be clobbered in November. Why? Because midterms are usually referendums on a presidents performance, and Bidens approval ratings are in the cellar.
But the conventional view could be wrong because it doesnt account for the Democrats secret sauce, which gives them a fighting chance of keeping one or both chambers: Trump.
According to recent polls, Trumps popularity continues to sink.He is liked by only 38% of Americans and disliked by 46%. And this isnt your normal sort of like, sort of dislike polling. Feelings are intense, as theyve always been about Trump. Among voters 45 to 64 years old a group Trump won in 2020, 50% to 49%, according to exit polls just 39% now view him favorably and 57%, unfavorably. Among voters 65 and older only 44% now see him favorably and more than half unfavorably. Perhaps most importantly, independents hold him in even lower regard. Just 26%view him favorably 68% unfavorably.
Polling Average Put Biden’s Approval Rating Higher Than 39%
Experts say approval ratings should be calculated by looking at an average between polls not a single poll. On the day the claim was made, the polling average for Biden’s approval rating was 45.2%.
“The best practice to look at multiple polls and not to fixate on an individual poll, which can be cherry-picked to make inaccurate arguments,” Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in an email.
The website FiveThirtyEight rates how different polls vary in terms of accuracy and statistical bias. It calculates approval ratings for presidents based on a weighted average that takes into account poll quality and uncertainty.
According to that polling average, Biden’s approval rate was 45.2% on the day the claim was posted.
The Facebook post appeared to refer to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 4-7. It reported 39% of American adults approved of Biden. YouGov noted this was the first time the majority of Americans disapproved of Biden during his presidency.
However, Burden told USA TODAY this poll was “unusually low.”
Fact check:Claim that Biden is withholding benefits from unvaccinated veterans originated as satire
“In the last month YouGov has also reported approval ratings of 44% and 50%,” he said. “Taken as a group it is more accurate to say that Biden’s rating is hovering in the mid-40s.”
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Trump Does Especially Well With Vaccine
The poll results show Trump does especially well among people who have not been vaccinated and do not intend to be vaccinated, Selzer said.
He is viewed favorably by 86% of Iowans who say they are not vaccinated and do not plan to become vaccinated.
Thats on par with Reynolds, who also is viewed favorably by 86% of vaccine-resistant Iowans. But far fewer vaccine-resistant Iowans view the states two Republican senators favorably. Sixty percent of those who are not vaccinated and do not plan to become vaccinated view Grassley favorably, and 67% view U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst favorably.
Trump has been vaccinated, but he did so in private and he said in a September interview with the Wall Street Journal that he is unlikely to get the booster shot authorized by the Food and Drug Administration for those 65 and older and for people with weakened immune systems.
He has publicly touted the aggressive timeline during which the vaccines were developed while he was in office. But at an August rally in Alabama, he was briefly booed for urging his supporters to get the shot.
You got to do what you have to do, but I recommend: Take the vaccines, he said at the rally. I did it its good.
Reynolds, Grassley and Ernst all have been vaccinated against COVID-19 and have publicly recommended that others do the same. But they and Trump have all drawn a firm line when it comes to any kind of vaccine mandate.
Racial Diversity Immigration And Muslims
As compared with those who supported other Republican candidates during the primaries, Trump supporters were more likely to believe that greater scrutiny of Muslims living in the U.S. would make the country safer. Specifically, a Pew survey conducted in March 2016 found that Trump supporters were more likely than those who supported other candidates to believe that Muslims should be subjected to greater scrutiny than other religious groups as a method of preventing terrorism and that Islam is more likely than other religions to encourage violence.
At the same time, the survey of Republican voters found a strong and consistent anti-immigrant sentiment among Trump supporters. Those who backed him in March 2016 were only half as likely as other Republican voters to say immigrants strengthen the country, and they were far more likely to favor building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border . As one can deduce from these findings, the majority of Trump supporters view immigrants as a burden to the country, see them as a threat to U.S. values, and favor the expulsion of undocumented immigrants.
Consistent with these findings, Pew’s April-May 2016 survey also found that the heavily older, white male fanbase of Trump believed that the growing racial diversity of the nation, which will make the population a majority of racial minorities, is bad for the country.
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The Capitol Riot Hearings Have Damaged Trumps Popularity And Cost Him A Major Media Ally
Donald Trump won a standing ovation after repeating his 2020 election rigging claims at a rally of young conservatives in Florida over the weekend.
The rapturous response at the Student Action Summit in Tampa was a departure from the lacklustre reception to his claims about the 2020 presidential race at other recent campaign rallies, said the Daily Mail.
Recent polls suggest that Trumps popularity has been dented by the hearings of the congressional inquiry exploring the 6 January riot at the US Capitol. The former president was booed at a rally in Arizona on Friday and has also lost the support of a key media ally.
Who Tells Your Story
The only reason why news about the raid leaked so quickly is because Trump announced it. At 4:51 p.m. EDT on Monday, he posted on his Truth Social platform that his estate had been the subject of an FBI raid. He decried the search as prosecutorial misconduct, the weaponization of the Justice System, and an attack by Radical Left Democrats.
Doing so allowed Trump to control the narrative and spin it to rally not only his loyal base but Republicans in general.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., threatened Garland with an investigation should the GOP win back the House in November. Ive seen enough. The Department of Justice has reached an intolerable state of weaponized politicization, he tweeted.
Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Miss., for Attorney General Merrick Garland to resign or be impeached, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga. a known Trump acolyte for the FBI to be defunded. She also echoed Trumps speculation that the FBI planted fake evidence. I think there is an extremely high probability that the FBI planted evidence against President Trump, Greene tweeted.
Even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis a presumptive challenger for the GOP nomination in 2024 weighed in, referring to the warrant as another escalation in the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regimes political opponents.
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The Claim: President Joe Bidens Approval Rating Is 39% And Lower Than Donald Trumps Ever Was
After the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings took a hit. But some online posts exaggerate the depth of the drop.
Text in reads, “Joe Biden’s approval falls to 39 percent, worse than Trump’s approval ever.” The post did not indicate which poll it’s referring to.
A similar post accumulated 46,000 likes in six days before it was deleted. Other claims in this vein have racked up hundreds of interactions on Facebook and Instagram, according to CrowdTangle, a social media insights tool.
The claim is misleading. While one poll did put Bidens approval rating at 39%, the polling average a more accurate measure of a president’s popularity put it higher. Experts say Biden’s approval rating, the lowest since he took office, is still higher than Trumps term low.
USA TODAY reached out to several social media users who shared the claim for comment.
How Racial Justice Protests Have Started A Contemporary Culture War
This lack of crossover support for presidents in their first term in office points toward one of the most animating forces in American politics today: Increased disdain and hatred of ones political opponents, known as negative partisanship. As the chart below shows, opinions about the other party have become far more unfavorable since the late 1970s. In other words, its not that surprising that Americans are far less likely to approve of and more likely to intensely dislike presidents from the other party right from the moment they take office.
Such hostile sentiments reflect a world in which each major party increasingly believes the other poses a threat to the countrys well-being. Consider that in 2019, the Pew Research Center found that about three-fourths of Americans thought that Democrats and Republicans not only disagreed over plans and policies, but that they also couldnt agree on basic facts. This is certainly borne out in attitudes toward the economy: Democrats thought the economy was immediately doing worse once Trump took office, while Republicans immediately thought it was getting worse after Biden won the 2020 election. And in the lead-up to the 2020 contest, Pew also found that about 9 in 10 of both Biden and Trump supporters felt that the victory of the other partys presidential nominee would lead to lasting harm, a sign of how each side increasingly finds the other to be an unacceptable political alternative.
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Is America Ready To Reopen
The country is at the start of whats likely to be a long political fight over when to begin reopening.
In California, the stay-at-home order has no end date. In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp is planning to start reopening this Friday.
We want to hear from you! Is America ready to open for business? Or, do you think the lockdown needs to last a little longer?
Write me at and your response could be featured in a future newsletter. Be sure to include your name and location. And if youre so inclined, tell us how youve been managing life, work and sanity in the coronavirus era.
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Donald Trump’s Social Media App Truth Social Surges In Popularity After Fbi Raid His Home
Truth Social has seen a boost in users in recent days, while issues around free speech and violent content linger on the platform.
Donald Trump’s social media app Truth Social has surged in popularity following the FBI raid on his Mar-a-Lago estate.
The app rose 66 places in the Apple App store from number 76 to 15 on 9 August, the day after agents searched his home. They were looking for boxes of classified information taken there after his time in office came to an end.
Many users have been posting angry messages about the FBI and one is believed to have carried out an attack on a Bureau office.
Mr Trump has used Truth Social as the main place to share his thoughts about the raid, including the post below.
The former president began Truth Social after he was suspended from Twitter for his comments during the Capitol riots when his supporters stormed Congress on 6 January 2021.
The platform went live on the Apple App store on 21 February this year but many people were on a waiting list and were unable to sign up until late April.
According to data collated by Similarweb, a digital intelligence platform, and shared with Sky News, both the Truth Social app and website have seen an increase in popularity since the raid.
The app briefly ranked #1 when it launched and after the waiting list of users cleared.
The number of views for the web version of Truth Social began to spike on the day of the raid.
#FBIcorruption
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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
LAPTOP FROM HELL
Friday, May 27, 2022
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, sponsored by Miranda Devines LAPTOP FROM HELL for Friday shows that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Bidens job performance. Fifty-five percent disapprove.
The latest figures include 22% who Strongly Approve of the job Biden is doing and 46% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -24.
Regular updates are posted Monday through Friday at 9:30 a.m. Eastern .
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Now that Gallup has quit the field, Rasmussen Reports is the only nationally recognized public opinion firm that still tracks President Bidens job approval ratings on a daily basis. If your organization is interested in a weekly or longer sponsorship of Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, please send e-mail to.
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Midterm Roundup: Border Politics
Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., encouraged Biden not to end the order known as Title 42 thats prevented immigrants from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border during the pandemic, amid fears that rescinding the authority would cause a surge of migrants at the southern border. Kelly and Sen. Krysten Sinema, D-Ariz., stressed that the Department of Homeland Security doesnt appear to have a plan to maintain a humane and orderly process at the border.
A surge of migrants could create yet another headache for Biden, but also for senators like Kelly, who are top GOP targets. Republicans have long been hammering Kelly and other vulnerable Democrats on immigration, and a surge of migrants could provide another opening for GOP attacks.
New York redistricting: A state judge struck down New Yorks congressional and state legislative maps as unconstitutional gerrymanders, giving legislators until April 11 to draw new district lines.
Georgia Senate: Two super PACs backing GOP Senate candidates Gary Black and Latham Saddler are planning seven-figure ad buys attacking Republican frontrunner Herschel Walker ahead of the May 24 primary, in an attempt to force Walker into a primary runoff, Politico reports.
Florida Governor: Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Frieds campaign is signaling that she plans to question Rep. Charlie Crists past relationship with Trump in the Democratic primary for governor, NBCs Marc Caputo reports.
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