Friday, August 12, 2022

Will Donald Trump Win 2020

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Ivanka Trump Fusses Over Dress In Jan 6 Documentary Teaser

Pollster who predicted Trump’s 2016 win makes 2020 prediction

Asked about Morris book, Trump told The Post, Ive known Dick Morris for a longtime and his father was a great real estate lawyer who represented me very well. Dick is a very talented person, and I would ask for his advice and opinions on matters of politics. Its what he loves and does best, and hes very good at it.

On another issue important to voters, Morris said Trump and the Republicans have a strong hand to play as the law-and-order party and paint Biden and the Democrats as soft on crime during the fall midterms and in 2024.

He said the left wing of the Democratic Partys campaign to defund the police is a gift to Trump and the GOP.

The crime issue is particularly toxic for the Democrats, because it is obvious to voters that it was not nearly as bad a problem before Biden was elected. Back in 2019, and before, crime had fallen out of the headlines and faded in popular consciousness. But after Bidens election, the movement to defund the police, and the vilification of dedicated, responsible, fair, and hardworking police officers has set the crime rate soaring. So who is to blame? Figure it out!, Morris said.


The Left wants to cut the number of uniformed police and replace them with social workers and psychologists to stem violence and escalation. So the next time you worry that a criminal is trying to break into your home, call 911 and wait for a social worker to arrive, he said.

Whats Important Right Now

After Election Night ends in uncertainty, University of Virginia Institute of Democracy experts offer their immediate reactions

Financial markets are barometers of uncertainty Robert Bruner
Cristina Lopez-Gottardi Chao, assistant professor and research director for public and policy programs, Miller Center

Under the best of circumstances, a presidential transition is a frantic time. While a re-elected incumbent has the luxury of continuity, selecting where and when to make changes going into a second term, a new president has only eleven weeks to set up a functioning government and to settle on priorities for the new administration. Accordingly, transitions tend to be perilous intervals for first-term presidents, because critical decisions about policy and personnel are taken in a pressure cooker, when electoral victory has made the incoming team supremely confident. In the words of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, transitions are times of maximum ignorance paired with maximum arrogance. Thats why so many consequential mistakes are made in transitions. Neustadt, for example, attributed John Kennedys Bay of Pigs fiasco just months into his presidency to these adverse conditions.

Russell Riley, co-chair, Presidential Oral History Program, White Burkett Miller Center Professor of Ethics and Institutions, Miller Center

At the Miller Center, we will be exploring these topics in the coming weeks. We hope you will stick with us.

Potential Supreme Court Nominees

On September 9, 2020, Trump released a new list of 20 potential nominees to the Supreme Court.

Trump campaign legal adviser Jenna Ellis said in a press release, “President Trumps list of Supreme Court nominees shows once again his firm commitment to protecting our fundamental rights, including religious freedom and the right to life for every precious unborn child. Originalist judges are necessary to protect and preserve our constitutional republic, built on the truthful recognition that our rights are God-given, not government-given.”


The following individuals were named:

Trump has released three other lists since 2016. Previously announced candidates include the following officials and judges:

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Trump Must Win All Of The Swing States Where Biden Leads By 1 To 3 Points

Lets start off by reviewing what the electoral map would look like if the FiveThirtyEight polling averages were exactly on target.

Biden would win all the states Hillary Clinton won last time, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Maines Second District, and Nebraskas Second District. That would give Biden a decisive win with 357 electoral votes.


But when you look a little closer, some of those leads for Biden in key states arent really that large. FiveThirtyEight has him ahead by just 1 to 3 points in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, and Maines Second District.

Poll leads of 1 to 3 points are not safe. Polling errors of that magnitude are common, and several swing state polling averages underestimated Trumps margin by a few points or more in 2016.

Specifically, of the states listed above, the RealClearPolitics averages undershot Trumps margin by 6.5 points in Iowa, 2.7 percentage points in North Carolina, 1 point in Florida, and 0.3 percentage points in Georgia, while they underestimated Clintons margin by 0.5 percentage points in Arizona.

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Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large


Just last week, Donald Trump called the Republican speaker of the Wisconsin state Assembly with an urgent message: He needed him to overturn the 2020 election results in the state.

The Point: Trump has been a one-trick pony since the end of the 2020 election. Is there some other message for 2024 beyond “I was robbed” in 2020?

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Talking Transitions: Perspectives For First

This three-hour event investigated a key moment in every presidency

The Miller Center joined the Partnership for Pubic Service’s Center for Presidential Transition to explore safe and effective presidential transition to first-term and second-term administrations. The event featured perspectives on transition planning, managing transitions during crises, and the complexities of shifting from campaigning to governing. Appearing were experts such as Joshua Bolten, Andy Card, Denis McDonough, Mack McLarty, Stephen Hadley, Lisa Monaco, John Podesta, Barbara Perry, Melody Barnes, Alexis Herman, Valerie Jarrett, Karen Hughes, and Margaret Spellings.

Gsa Delays Certifying Biden As President

Although all major media outlets called the election for Biden on November 7, the head of the General Services Administration , Trump appointee Emily W. Murphy, refused for over two weeks to certify Biden as the president-elect. Without formal GSA certification or “ascertainment” of the winner of the election, the official transition process was delayed. On November 23, Murphy acknowledged Biden as the winner and said the Trump administration would begin the formal transition process. Trump said he had instructed his administration to “do what needs to be done” but did not concede, and indicated he intended to continue his fight to overturn the election results.


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Here’s How We’ll Help You Figure Out If Trump Will Win

This is the first in a set of monthly check-ins we’ll publish as we approach the 2020 US election.

If 2020 has taught us nothing else, it’s that news events can upend our expectations and assumptions about the presidential race overnight.

So we’ll tackle this one month at a time, assessing Trump’s chances of being re-elected against some key metrics that the experts are watching closely to figure out that answer themselves.

There are three indicators we’ll be watching every month the strength of the US economy, national polling averages and the coronavirus pandemic.


They’re based on our conversations with three experts who have decades of experience predicting the outcomes of US presidential elections Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the UVA Center for Politics, Charles Stewart, founding director of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab and Allan Lichtman, who co-developed the Keys to the White House system of predicting American presidential elections.

These three indicators aren’t the only things that will determine if Trump will win in 2020 , but they’re some of the most important that’ll help you get a handle on where the race is at a glance.

In this first edition, we’ll explain why each is important, and where they stand as of July 2020.

Starting with

Biden Team Already Working Toward Transition

‘I didn’t win the election’: Donald Trump discusses 2020 loss in interview with historians

Biden will be inaugurated as president on Jan. 20, whether Trump acknowledges his win as legitimate or not. Biden has already begun the process of transitioning to the countrys highest office.


Though Trump has not formally conceded, his administration has granted the new administration access to intelligence briefings, office space, secure computers and other government services, USA TODAY previously reported. Trump tweeted Nov. 23 that the move was made at his recommendation.

The announcement, made by Emily Murphy of the General Services Administration, allocated over $6 million to Bidens transition team for hiring and other transition-related expenses. Since then, Biden has made a number of Cabinet picks, including his chief of staff, Treasury secretary, director of national intelligence, head of the Department of Homeland Security, ambassador to the United Nations, climate change envoy, secretary of State, Defense secretary and Health and Human Services secretary.

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Seven Winning Tactics From Bush V Gore

Barbara Perry, the Miller Center’s director of Presidential Studies, mines the Center’s just-released oral history from Theodore Olson in TIME

In the plethora of challenges to state election procedures making their way to the U.S. Supreme Court, the specter of Bush v. Gore haunts the judicial landscape. The litigation over Floridas determinative 2000 vote count resulted in two oral arguments before the highest court in the land, and placed George W. Bush in the Oval Office. With nearly 400 election-related lawsuits filed this year, many over the question of which votes will be counted, a close result on Election Day could once again leave the Supreme Court in a position to issue a ruling that determines who occupies the White House for the next four years.

Bushs lead counsel in both 2000 cases, renowned Supreme Court advocate Theodore B. Olson, just released to UVAs Miller Center an oral-history interview about the crucial role he played in that astounding Supreme Court drama. As the nation faces the possibility of another contested Presidential election, Olsons unique insights provide a roadmap for attorneys who might find themselves pleading the case of who should win the Presidency. Here are seven tactics, in his own words, that he used to win the litigation.


Certification Of Electoral College Votes

The 117th United States Congress first convened on January 3, 2021, and was scheduled to count and certify the Electoral College votes on January 6, 2021. There were 222 Democrats and 212 Republicans in the House there were 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and two independents in the Senate. Several Republican members of the House and Senate said they would raise objections to the reported count in several states, meeting the requirement that if a member from each body objects, the two houses must meet separately to discuss whether to accept the certified state vote. A statement from the vice president’s office said Pence welcomes the plan by Republicans to “raise objections and bring forward evidence” challenging the election results.

On December 28, 2020, Representative Louie Gohmert filed a lawsuit in Texas challenging the constitutionality of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, claiming Vice President Pence has the power and ability to unilaterally decide which slates of electoral votes get counted. The case was dismissed on January 1, 2021, for lack of both standing and jurisdiction. The plaintiffs filed an appeal, and the appeal was dismissed by a three-judge panel of the appeals court the next day.

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Who Is Leading In The Us Election Polls

Biden has consistently led in the polls throughout the campaign trail and on 28 October the national presidential polls put him at 51.1%, compared to Trump at 43.6%.

The polling is representative of the picture weve seen all year, with Trump trailing behind his rival and the distance between the two extending to 10 points at one time.


However, its not all bad news for Trump. His approval ratings have seen an improvement in the past few months.

In June 2020, the presidents disapproval ratings hit a high of 56.2% while his approval ratings sunk to 41.2%.

However, by October his disapproval ratings dropped to 53.35% and his approval ratings rose slightly to 44.3%.

Biden retained a double-digit lead over President Trump in the final Yahoo News/YouGov poll of the 2020 campaign, published on the eve of the election .

The poll closed with a 10-point margin for the Democrat thats more than three times as large as Hillary Clintons final polling advantage in 2016.

Watch:Trump and Biden wait for results in key swing states

Donald Trump ‘wobbles’ During White House Award Ceremony

Donald Trump will win again in 2020 if Democrats can

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Modelling by Moodys Analytics shows President Trump could be reelected in 2020 if the economy holds up. Here are the latest predictions and polls for the US election 2020.

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Bidenworld Wants To Make The Midterms More About Trump And Hopes Elon Musk Helps

Still, some allies and Democrats privately worry that Biden may not be able to handle the rigors of another campaign.

A bone he broke in his foot while playing with his dog in late November 2020 still occasionally bothers Biden, resulting in a slower and shorter gait. And the White House has largely abandoned using the Oval Office for press events in part because it cant be permanently equipped with a teleprompter Biden aides prefer the fake White House stage built in the Old Executive Office Building next door for events, sacrificing some of the power of the historic backdrop in favor of an otherwise sterile room that was outfitted with an easily read teleprompter screen.

And if Biden were to run again in 2024, it almost certainly would be a more rigorous campaign than the one he previously mounted. The outbreak of Covid kept Biden in his Delaware home for much of the 2020 general election campaign, sparing him the wear and tear of relentless travel.

As for Trump, the issues are not related to physical health so much as psychological conditioning. He wants to run, those who know him say, but wants to be sure he will win.

I always said that he would run if Biden is under 44 or 43 but if Biden is at 46, 47, he will pass, said Bryan Lanza, a GOP strategist and former Trump campaign official. Right now he is at 41 so I have to say yes right now there has to be a dramatic turning out in Biden numbers for him to pass.

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Do Polls Or Odds Help Us Work Out Who Will Win The Presidential Election

If only it were that simple. As weve seen in countless elections in the US, the UK and elsewhere, polls dont always tell the whole story.

In the US, who wins the election often comes down to certain states and the electoral college system.

All 50 US states and Washington DC have a set number of electors in the electoral college and that number is roughly proportionate to the size of each state. There are 538 electors to win a majority and become president either candidate needs to get 270 electors, which is half the total plus one.

The number of electors per state is based on a states population so those with more people get more votes. For example, California the largest state gets 55 electors, while those with fewer populations like Wyoming get just three.

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Trump Will Likely Win Reelection In 2020

More than two dozen Democrats reportedly are eyeing the possibility of challenging President Donald Trump in 2020.

Media darling Beto ORourke has met with former President Barack Obama.

Former Vice President Joe Biden claims that he is the most qualified person in the country to be president.

Sen. Kamala Harris says she will make her presidential decision over the holiday.

The Boston Globe editorial board praised former Massachusetts Democratic governor Deval Patrick for calling it quits on 2020, and suggested that the Bay States senior Senator Elizabeth Warren would be wise to heed his example.

Hillary Clinton would like to run for a third time, but slumping ticket prices on her current speaking tour are an ominous sign.

And then there is Sen. Bernie Sanders, who lost the Democratic nomination to Clinton in 2016 but who is nevertheless mulling a bid as well.

Simply put, 2020 is about to get pretty wild on the Democrats side of the ledger, and no one should be shocked if it descends into a no-holds-barred mosh pit of progressive egos slamming each other and Trump at every turn.

Let us also not forget about the mainstream media who will be salivating and panting for the next year and half over who will represent their beloved blue team in the big head-to-head contest.

Still, it is important to keep a few things in mind.

Assuming Donald Trump runs for reelection, he is the favorite to win despite recent polls. Even the bookmakers are currently in agreement.

Attacking The Us Postal Service

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Many more Americans than usual are expected to vote by mail in Novembers elections due to coronavirus concerns, but Trump himself a mail-in voter has lobbed false attacks meant to make the practice seem ripe for fraud. Voter fraud including fraud while voting by mail is extremely rare in the United States. Trump tipped his hand during an interview in March, when he said he rejected a coronavirus stimulus bill Democrats proposed because its increased funding for vote-by-mail options, he claimed, would hurt Republicans.

The things they had in there were crazy, Trump said. They had things levels of voting that, if you ever agreed to it, youd never have a Republican elected in this country again.

Trump and his campaign have spent much of the year waging a war against the U.S. Postal Service. White House aides are looking into executive actions Trump could take to curb mail-in voting, Politico reported, and the Trump campaign is currently suing several states over provisions they put in place to make mail-in voting easier. Democrats in the House also allege Trumps newly appointed postmaster general, a campaign donor, has instituted changes that threaten the timely delivery of mail including medicines for seniors, paychecks for workers and absentee ballots for voters that is essential to millions of Americans.

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