Trump Falls Short In Popular Electoral Votes Lawsuits Fail
Despite efforts to convince the country and the courts otherwise, Trump did not win reelection.
Trump broke President Barack Obamas popular vote record with over 74 million votes, but still fell short of Biden, who surpassed Trump and all previous presidential candidates by racking up a record-shattering 81 million votes. The Biden-Harris ticket gained roughly 51% of the popular vote to the Trump-Pence tickets 47%, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
But as the 2000 and 2016 elections showed, the popular vote is not the sole determinant of presidential elections the Electoral College makes the final call.
Each state is allowed a number of electors, which is determined by adding its number of senators to its number of House representatives . Nationwide, there are 538 electoral votes to cast.
On Election Day, people vote for their preferred candidate’s electors, who are chosen by political parties or independent candidates before the election. Those individuals, collectively the Electoral College, then cast votes for president and vice president, usually representing the choice their state’s voters made.
Candidates have to win at least half of the country’s electoral votes to be elected president.
None has gotten very far just one case has been won and at least eight are pending.
Donald Trump Will Likely Win In 2020 Says Commentator: ‘incumbency Has Its Privileges’
Donald Trump will likely win the 2020 presidential election because “incumbency has its privileges,” according to a political commentator.
The president hasn’t officially thrown his hat into the ring for the next race for the White House. But if he did, Trump would be the favorite to win despite a poor recent performance in voter polling and Republicans suffering the worst House defeat in U.S. history in the midterm elections, Republican strategist Ford O’Connell wrote for The Hill.
O’Connell, who served as director of rural outreach for John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, noted that 20 presidents have run for election since the turn of the 20th century, with incumbents retaining the White House 15 times. They include President Gerald Ford, who automatically assumed the presidency after the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974.
“If you remove Ford from the equation, the winning percentage among presidential incumbents would likely be good enough to capture baseball’s Cy Young award in recent years,” wrote O’Connell, who is also an adjunct professor at the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management.
The biggest obstacle standing between Trump and the Oval Office is the prospect of a recession in the election year, suggested O’Connell.
This article was updated to include an infographic.
Trump Knows What So Many Of Us Will Not Admit Nor Speak Publicly: That We Elected Him Once And We’ll Elect Him Again That Almost Mysteriously But Certainly Tragically He Is The Perfect Candidate
2:00 AM on Jun 30, 2019 CDT
President Donald Trump will win re-election, and it may not even be close.
Is this conjecture or prophecy? Only time will tell. But it doesn’t matter I expect the result will be the same: four more years making America great again, tweet by tweet. Not a question of economics or policy or even vision, it’s simply a question of psychology and politics. Americans remain seduced by the incantations and mythologies of partisan politics, so it should be plain for anyone to see. Our next general election will be a maddeningly simple game, uncomplex and brutal.
Take the politics of it. The philosopher Max Weber said long ago that the West has always been vulnerable to demagoguery, a claim both history and contemporary politics confirm. From Pericles to Putin, from Churchill to Thatcher to Reagan to Clinton to Trump: Charisma and celebrity have often mattered more than ideas.
Even noble, liberty-loving republicanism, intrinsically fearful of an unrestrained demos, has always been liable to exploitation by charismatic leaders. This is Machiavelli’s prince, idealized Medici: cruel, amoral charlatans desirous only for power. It’s why in politics oratory always mattered, and why in today’s media images, clickbait and deepfakes matter so much more.
And that’s because Trump is us. Which, of course, is an issue not political.
Joshua J. Whitfield|Contributor
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Donald Trump Is Still The Favorite To Win In 2020 Just Look At The Midterm Map
Since 1938, Gallop has asked the nation, Do you approve or disapprove of the way the president is handling his job?
Across 80 years of polling, presidents have averaged approval ratings of 53 percent, ranging from a high of 74 percent for John F. Kennedy in November 1962 to a low of 35 percent for Trump in December 2017. In the days leading up to the 2018 midterm elections, Trumps approval rating rose slightly to 40 percent. Still, a commanding 54 percent of those polled said they disapproved of Trumps performance. His low approval ratings contributed to the resurgence of the Democratic Party in the House, where they picked up at least 33 seats and regained control of the chamber.
Record turnout and pointed campaigning in battleground states also helped Democrats pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada, which would have been enough to take control of that chamber if all the partys incumbents there had held on to their seats.
Instead, the chambers swung in opposite directions, with Republicans building on their majority in the Senate. They have already secured a 51-seat majority in the upper chamber and look likely to add two seats Florida and Mississippi by the time the dust settles.
How Donald Trump Can Come From Behind And Win Michigan
LANSING Its déjà vu all over again in Michigan, where Republican President Donald Trump is down in the polls but predicting victory in an election that is little more than a week away.
Four years after his razor-thin win here, Trump and his family are barnstorming the battleground state in hopes of a late surge that could help him win a second term.
The odds are not great for Trump, who is planning to return to Michigan on Tuesday for 2 p.m. rally at Capital Region International Airport in Lansing.
- As of Monday, Democrat Joe Biden was leading recent Michigan polls by an average of 8.1 percentage points, according to Real Clear Politics.
- Among the 14 Michigan public opinion surveys released this month, Trump led only one by a single percentage point. In one of the most recent, Fox News had Biden up 12 points.
- The latest FiveThirtyEight forecast pegs Bidens win probability at 94 percent in Michigan.
But Michigan elections experts arent closing the door on Trump, who outperformed the polls in 2016 to win Michigan by 10,704 votes over Democrat Hillary Clinton. Bridge Michigan asked some of the states leading political consultants and pollsters how Trump could do it again.
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Attempts To Delay Or Deny Election Results
In November, Trump focused his efforts on trying to delay vote certifications at the county and state level. On December 2, Trump posted a 46-minute video to his social media in which he repeated his baseless claims that the election was “rigged” and fraudulent and called for either the state legislatures or the courts to overturn the results of the election and allow him to stay in office. He continued to apply pressure to elected Republicans in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania in an unprecedented attempt to overturn the election result. Some commentators have characterized Trump’s actions as an attempted coup d’état or self-coup.
On December 15, the day after the electoral college vote, Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, who was previously among those who would not recognize the election results, publicly accepted Biden’s win, saying, “Today, I want to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden.”
In a December 21 news conference, outgoing Attorney General William Barr disavowed several actions reportedly being considered by Trump, including seizing voting machines, appointing a special counsel to investigate voter fraud, and appointing one to investigate Hunter Biden.
Aftermath: Trumps Refusal To Concede And The Insurrection At The Capitol
While votes were still being counted, Trump falsely claimed victory and demanded a halt to the counting. He claimed that there had been widespread voting irregularities, but he provided no evidence for his accusations. Trump steadfastly refused to concede, but over the ensuing weeks dozens of legal challenges to the election results in states that Trump lost were almost universally summarily dismissed by the courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court. Moreover, recounts in Wisconsin and Georgia confirmed Bidens victory in those states. Nevertheless, Trump, with the support of most Republicans and echoed by the right-wing media, continued to baselessly claim that the election had been stolen. Further, he tried to persuade Republican officials in several states to reject the results in their states and to supplant Electoral College slates pledged to Biden with slates pledged to himself.
Were going to walk down to the Capitol, and were going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women, and were probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them, because youll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength, and you have to be strong.
We Dont Really Do Blowout Presidential Elections These Days
The country is deeply divided along partisan lines. And almost no external events impact how people think about their political affiliation. Its why Trumps Electoral College victory in 2016 in which he won 56.9% of the 538 electoral votes was the 12th lowest percentage in history, according to The New York Times. And why three of the 11 elections in which a president won with a smaller percentage of all electoral votes have come in 1976, 2000 and 2004. In the last five presidential elections, the winner has averaged 311 electoral votes. The five before that? The winner averaged 438 electoral votes.
We are simply not constructed at this moment politically to deliver any president a not-close victory. And thats before you remember that Trumps popular-vote deficit to Hillary Clinton in 2016 almost 3 million votes is the largest in American history for a victorious presidential candidate.
A 10 Percent Chance Isnt Zero And Theres A Chance Of A Recount Too
ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / FABIO BUONOCORE
Its tempting to write this story in the form of narrative fiction: On a frigid early December morning in Washington, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that disputed mail ballots in Pennsylvania You know, that kind of thing. But given the stakes in this election, I think its important to be prosaic and sober-minded instead.
So lets state a few basic facts: The reasons that President Trumps chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not zero:
- As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Projected than the margins in the national popular vote.
- More specifically, Joe Bidens lead in Pennsylvania the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average.
- Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but theres no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about.
- While a lot of theories about why Trump can win are probably wrong, systematic polling errors do occur, and its hard to predict them ahead of time or to anticipate the reasons in advance.
- There is some chance that Trump could win illegitimately. To a large extent, these scenarios are beyond the scope of our forecast.
- Theres also some chance of a recount or an Electoral College tie , according to our forecast.
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Morris told The Post Tuesday the January 6th commission hearings will backfire massively.
There is a fiddling-while-Rome-burns quality to the hearings. Much ado and much distraction about nothing. The more attention the issue draws, the more it becomes apparent that the Democrats are not talking about the concerns that bedevil the average person high prices and inflation at the pump, he said.
Morris likened the Democrats obsession with Trump and the Jan. 6 protests to Republicans in Congress moving to impeach President Bill Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky sex scandal, which hurt the GOP in the 1998 midterm elections because voters thought they made a mountain out of a molehill.
The book also was written before the Supreme Court rulings that tossed out restrictions on concealed guns, overturned the federal right to abortion and scrapped executive power to regulate greenhouse gas emissions on power plants without congressional approval, which could galvanize Democrats to go to the polls.
I do not think any of this terms Supreme Court rulings will have an adverse effect on Trumps chances or those of the Republicans in 22 or 24, he said.
The abortion decision has the most potential impact but, since state laws remain in force, the impact is largely theoretical and when people see how it works out theyll see that very little has really changed.
Pressure On State And Local Officials
As the Trump campaign’s lawsuits were repeatedly rejected in court, Trump personally communicated with Republican local and state officials in at least three states, including state legislators, attorneys general, and governors who had supported him in the general election and continued to support him. He pressured them to overturn the election results in their states by recounting votes, throwing out certain votes, or getting the state legislature to replace the elected Democratic slate of Electoral College members with a Republican slate of electors chosen by the legislature. In late November, he personally phoned Republican members of two county electoral boards in Michigan, trying to get them to reverse their certification of the result in their county. He then invited members of the Michigan state legislature to the White House, where they declined his suggestion that they choose a new slate of electors. He repeatedly spoke to the Republican governor of Georgia and the secretary of state, demanding that they reverse their state’s election results, threatening them with political retaliation when they did not, strongly criticizing them in speeches and tweets, and demanding that the governor resign.
Trumps Standing In Key States Is Weak
Trump won the White House due to, essentially, three states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Turning those large population, Democratic-leaning states in the Midwest red gave him the margin that few including Trump himself saw in the electoral map. While Trump could win the White House in 2020 without those states or at least two of them its a much harder map for him.
And at the moment, his approval ratings in all three states look bad. According to a Gallup state-by-state polling, just 42% in all three states approved of the job Trump was doing as of late February. In all three, a majority of people disapproved of how Trump was handling his job in the White House.
Which would be OK, if Trump looked to be in position to win states he lost in 2016. In an interview over the weekend, Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale floated four such states Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire. The problem? Heres the job approval number for Trump again, according to Gallup in those four states: 39% , 38% , 40% and 35% .
None of that is to say that Trump cant or wont win next November. Ive told anyone who asks that assuming simply because of his weak approval numbers or his, um, unpresidential manner that Trump is a goner in 2020 is a major mistake. He proved in 2016 that he had an appeal that went beyond traditional metrics. And Im assuming that he will keep that appeal in some circles come 2020.
Potentially very, very close.
Legal Analysis And Reactions
Loyola Law School professor Justin Levitt said “here’s literally nothing that I’ve seen yet with the meaningful potential to affect the final result”.Ohio State University election law professor Ned Foley noted “ou have to have a legal claim, and you have to have evidence to back it up. And that’s just not there.”University of Kentucky law professor Joshua Douglas said the lawsuits “all seem to have no merit whatsoever”. Bradley P. Moss, an attorney specializing in national security, wrote that the suits “continue to defy reason and logic, and are purely theater … It’s all a farce”.University of California, Irvine election law professor Rick Hasen said there is “no evidence of fraud so far that could conceivably affect the election results”. Barry Richard, who helped to oversee the Republican-led Florida recount effort during the 2000 election, called the lawsuits “entirely without merit” and said they “will not be successful” Gerry McDonough, an attorney who worked for the Gore campaign, said Trump “has no chance of overturning the resultit’s just impossible”. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued a statement calling the 2020 election “the most secure in American history” and noting “here is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised”.
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