Many Voters In California Still Dont Know Theres A Recall Election
The recall election of Californias governor has been unusual for a lot of reasons. But one of the first things that set it apart was that just a month before Election Day even as ballots began to hit mailboxes many Californians didnt even know a vote was taking place.
That was especially true in predominantly Latino communities, where advocates worried that voters would be too preoccupied by work and family to learn about what was at stake. Young people and immigrants may be voting for the first time, and the ballot is confusingly different from other elections there is no runoff.
Covid-19 has continued to ravage those communities, where many essential workers are struggling to recover from the worst of the pandemic and its economic fallout. Were asking people to vote by Sept. 14, and they might get evicted by Sept. 30, said Christian Arana, vice president of policy for the Latino Community Foundation.
Now, though, after millions of text messages have implored voters to cast their ballots, and recognizable Democrats like Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former President Barack Obama have appeared on television screens, Gov. Gavin Newsom is hoping that voters will be motivated to turn out.
With one day of voting left, more than twice as many Democrats have returned their ballots as Republicans, according to Political Data, Inc., an election data supplier.
When Will We Know The Results
So when will we know the results? After Election Day, county election officials have to complete their work receiving and counting ballots, although we may have some idea of the vote by then, since more than eight million ballots have already been returned. Counties can process early ballots and get them ready to count, but they cannot start tallying until the polls close.
After the polls overestimated Democratic candidates in 2016 and 2020, it is reasonable to wonder whether Gov. Gavin Newsoms lead in the California recall election might prove as illusory as Hillary Clintons lead in Wisconsin or Joe Bidens in Florida.
Its not impossible. But Mr. Newsoms lead now dwarfs the typical polling error and is large enough to withstand nearly every statewide polling miss in recent memory.
Opposition to recalling Mr. Newsom leads by 17 points, 58 to 41 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Polls in 2020 overestimated the Democrats by an average of about five percentage points.
There was no state in either the 2016 or 2020 presidential elections where the final polls missed by 16 percentage points. Perhaps the worst recent polling miss Senator Susan Collinss comfortable nine-point victory after trailing in the polls by three points is in the ballpark, but would still fall five points short of erasing Mr. Newsoms lead.
Perhaps as a result, statewide polling in California has generally been fairly accurate.
Republican Leadership Voter Guide Series
While Landslide Communications slates are targeted to include moderate and conservative voters regardless of party affiliation, including independents and Decline-to-State voters, hard-core self-identified Republican voters remain a very important part of our overall direct-mail program. And as the saying goes, all politics is local. GOP voters are dominant in the local southern California counties of Orange County, San Diego County, San Bernardino County, Los Angeles County, Riverside County and Ventura County, and are the most important in the State of California for Republican candidates and statewide measures that are counting on support from their Republican base. In these days of low-voter turnout, inexpensive and persuasive direct-voter contact like Landslides Republican Leadership series to help inspire higher GOP voter turnout are now an even more essential part of a winning campaign strategy.
If you want to help build a big vote in Orange, San Diego, San Bernardino, Los Angeles, Riverside and Ventura Counties, you need to be on our Landslide Communicatiosn slate program!
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Volunteers Have Been Knocking On The Doors Of Often
SAN BERNARDINO, Calif. The handful of volunteers gathered on Monday in the small office of the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, one of Southern Californias largest Latino and immigrant rights organizations.
Karen Diaz, a lead organizer, reminded them just how important the recall election would be. Without Gov. Gavin Newsom, she warned, undocumented immigrants could lose their rights to health care services and drivers licenses. Latino essential workers, who have died from Covid-19 and have been sickened by the coronavirus at disproportionately high rates, would lose what protections they do have. And money set aside to help renters and public school students would soon evaporate.
Latinos have been some of the most ambivalent voters in the weeks leading up to the recall, turning in ballots at a lower rate than Black, Asian and white voters. While Mr. Newsoms standing with Latino voters has improved in recent polls, some see grim warnings for Democrats and have urged the party to do more to reach out to them.
This is a fight for us, Ms. Diaz reminded the volunteers just before they took off in blazing 99-degree heat to knock on doors of Latino voters who had yet to cast a ballot.
Ms. Diaz and Ma Carmen Rodriguez headed to a cul-de-sac in San Bernardino, a working-class city about 60 miles east of Los Angeles. They knocked on nearly a dozen doors before their first success: Lina Luna, an 18-year-old who would be a first-time voter.
Welcome To The Membership Website For The California Republican Assembly
Tip: If you own a smart phone, please install the “WildApricot for Members” app from the App Store or Play Store . It’s free and the best way to renew your membership, register and pay for CRA events. All you need is your email address and passwordthe same you use to login here. Now you can carry your CRA membership card around just like an airline boarding pass.
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San Diego County Board Of Supervisors
Terms limits are forcing the retirement of long-time supervisors Ron Roberts in San Diego and Bill Horn in North County. Their positions are officially non-partisan, but both are Republicans, and at least one of their successors could be Democrat after this election. That would end the current Republican dominance on the five-member board.
Former state Assemblymember and two-time Mayoral candidate Nathan Fletcher faces retired District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis in the race of succeed Roberts. Fletcher, who began his political career as a Republican but is now a Democrat, edged out Dumanis in the primary, and polls show him in the lead.
In North County, San Marcos Mayor Jim Desmond, a Republican, is opposed by Michelle Gomez, a community volunteer with union backing. Polls show him with a wide lead.
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Please do NOT use this form to register or re-register to vote if you are enrolled in a confidential address program such as Safe at Home. If sharing your address could put you in life-threatening danger, you may be eligible to register to vote confidentially.
For more information, contact the Safe at Home program at or visit www.sos.ca.gov/registries/safe-home/.
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Voter Registration Goes Way Up In California And In Local Area Mainly Helping Democrats
Interest in the upcoming Nov. 3 election is very high in California, leading to an increase in voter registration — a trend which is mainly benefiting Democrats.
While cities such as Los Angeles and San Francisco are overwhelmingly Democratic, areas such as Orange County that were previous Republican strongholds are now leaning the Democrats’ way.
San Bernardino County turned from red to blue over the past several years thanks to a steady rise in Democratic voters, and Fontana remains one of several cities having a large Democratic advantage.
A recent report by Secretary of State Alex Padilla showed that 20,921,513 Californians were registered to vote as of July 3, which represents an increase of 2,836,514 since a similar report was made during the previous presidential election cycle in 2016.
Padilla said that 83.49 percent of eligible Californians are registered to vote — the highest percentage heading into a general election in the past 68 years.
Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, California is on track to reach another registration milestone,” Padilla said in a news release. “California will reach 21 million registered voters before the November general election — extending our current state record for voter registration.
This year, Democratic registered voters are 46.32 percent of the total, a 1.22 percent increase from 2016.
The Republican voter registration percentage, meanwhile, decreased 3.1 percent to 23.99 percent over the past four years.
Sabo The Guerrilla Street Artist Gives The Elder Campaign A Push On The Sunset Strip
The Sunset Strip in Los Angeles awoke on Monday to a hijacked billboard whose ad for the Netflix series Lucifer had been covered with one for Larry Elder, the conservative radio host and lead challenger in the campaign to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The sign, outside the Viper Room nightclub, had Gov. Elder in the space where the act for the evening would be, and the billboard had been covered with sheets on which Mr. Elders surname had been painted in large block letters with an image of California.
We have the strip to save, the billboard said, a takeoff on Mr. Elders campaign tagline, We have a state to save.
The guerrilla street artist Sabo, a supporter of Mr. Elder, took credit for the installation, one of several posters and art pieces he has contributed to the campaign.
In a text message, he said he had chosen the billboard because the chairman of Netflix, Reed Hastings, had contributed $3 million against the recall, and because of the impact of the governors coronavirus restrictions on the local economy.
A half-dozen friends had helped, he said. The Viper Room was closed all weekend, he wrote. The shutdowns have hurt them and the staff, along with most of the businesses on the strip.
But, Sabo added, I did this hit in the name of PUNK ROCK.
Its long been seen that if you are from the Bay Area you have a political advantage, said Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy.
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San Diego County Ballot Measures
There are four countywide ballot measures in this election. The first, Measure A, is a technical change to the county charter to conform to state and federal laws. Measure B ensures balanced representation of incorporated and unincorporated areas among the five Board of Supervisors districts. Measure C requires pension-related funds to only be used for pensions to ensure long-term fiscal stability.
The last, Measure D, is a bit controversial. It would require the top two candidates in a primary election to always proceed to the general election, even if one of the candidates receives greater than 50 percent of the vote in the primary. This would favor the Democrats since that partys turnout is typically higher in a general election than a primary.
Newsom Cant Tie Recall Election To Gop In Voter Guide Lawsuit Says
The Court has no doubt that not all recall supporters are Republicans, Earl wrote. But the challenged arguments do not state or imply that they are.
Newsoms statements in the voter guide include labeling the recall an attempt by national Republicans and Trump supporters to force an election and grab power in California and says the recall backers are abusing our recall laws in order to gain power and advance their partisan agenda.
Eric Early, the lawyer for Heatlie and a former GOP candidate for state attorney general, argued its factually wrong to say the effort abuses the states recall laws.
That the recall election was certified in the first place by the Secretary of States office is evidence that there was no abuse of the recall laws, he said.
Newsoms lawyers, meanwhile, said the evidence shows that the recalls supporters and donors are primarily Republicans.
Newsom lost an earlier court case to get his party affiliation as Democratic next to his name on the ballot. His campaign had failed to file the paperwork in time. But he refers to himself as the Democratic governor in his voter guide argument.
If more than half of voters say yes to recalling Newsom, he will be forced to leave office more than a year before his first term ends. Then, the replacement candidate with the highest number of votes would become governor.
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San Bernardino Voter Guide
This Election 2020 San Bernardino County voter guide will help you cut through the rhetoric, election propaganda and biased media coverage of the campaigns. This guide ranks every aspect of a candidates record according to experience, integrity, and commitment to community.
Here youll find recommendations for:
- City Council
Scroll down for our recommendations.
Dont forget to for updates on critical issues, trends and policies affecting our freedoms and are impacting our economy, legislation, culture and election results.
Lets get started.
Ratings: Every candidate is considered after thorough research we also have a questionnaire for candidates to complete. Here is our rating system:
- : The best candidate. Our strongest endorsement.
- : Very good.
- : Vote only to prevent worse candidate from winning.
- : Terrible. Do Not Vote. All your other votes will count.
for new policy for write-in candidates.
Frustrated Farmers May Be A Force In The Recall Election
Farmers are a key constituency in California, where the $50 billion agricultural sector makes up about 3 percent of the states gross domestic product. During this year of exceptional drought, they are feeling the pinch of water restrictions, prompting many to support the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday and choose a successor who they feel supports small businesses and will fight hard for their water needs.
In interviews in recent days, several farmers said Mr. Newsom hadnt responded as urgently as they would like to their pleas for more water storage, such as dams, reservoirs or water banks, as a way of helping them through this drought and future ones.
Hes not there for the state of California, Mr. Gordon said of the governor. Were angry, and the people of the state want this guy gone.
Mr. Gordon, the owner of several dairy farms near Los Angeles, is a lifelong Democrat who voted for Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, in 2018. But lately, he said, high taxes on milk, coronavirus shutdowns that have cut into his sales and state-imposed limitations on water for agriculture have made him so angry at the governor that he has paid for seven billboards throughout the state most of them in the Central Valley, which produces a quarter of the nations food urging people to remove the governor.
The common wisdom in politics is that elections favor the incumbent. The candidate already in office has more name recognition, and can often raise more money than the challengers.
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How Do You Give 46 Candidates A Fair Shot On The Ballot
Forty-six candidates are running to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom if California voters recall him on Tuesday. In what order should their names appear on the ballot?
It may sound like a frivolous question, but it isnt: Research suggests that the order in which candidates are listed can affect who wins. Because of that, it is considered a best practice in election administration to randomize the order of names rather than list them alphabetically, to avoid disadvantaging candidates whose names begin with letters late in the alphabet.
Methods vary from state to state and sometimes from county to county. In Minnesota, major-party candidates are listed in reverse order of their average vote in the last election, minor-party candidates are subject to a random drawing, and nonpartisan candidates are subject to a formula enshrined in state law, according to the Minnesota secretary of states office. In South Carolina, candidates are listed according to their party, and the party order is rotated every two years. In Whatcom County, Wash., candidates are listed on primary ballots by random draw, and on general election ballots by the vote share they received in the primary.
And then there is California, which doesnt randomize candidate names it randomizes the entire alphabet.
That means Caitlyn Jenner will appear before Larry Elder , and Sam Gallucci will appear before Ted Gaines .
Its as easy as XKT.
What You Will Need
To register online you will need
- Your California driver license or California identification card number,
- The last four digits of your social security number and
- Your date of birth.
Your information will be provided to the California Department of Motor Vehicles to retrieve a copy of your DMV signature.
If you do not have a California driver license or California identification card, you can still use this form to apply to register to vote. However, you will need to take additional steps to complete your voter registration.
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On The Eve Of The Election Biden Rallies Voters For Newsom In California
LONG BEACH, Calif. In a final push to maintain Democratic leadership in California and fend off the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom, President Biden encouraged voters at a rally in the state on Monday night to reject the Republican-led effort to push Mr. Newsom from office.
Mr. Bidens visit, his first to California as president, came the day before the election on Tuesday. The presidents arrival underscored the alarm within the Democratic Party at the possibility of losing the governorship of the nations most populous state, where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one.
You can either keep Gavin Newsom as your governor, or youll get Donald Trump, warned Mr. Biden, who compared the leading Republican candidate, Larry Elder, to a clone of the former president. Its not a joke.
At the rally Monday evening in Long Beach, Mr. Biden appeared with Mr. Newsom, who polls show is likely to prevail, after a nervous summer for Democrats in which polls showed the recall had a good shot of succeeding. But since those early projections, millions of dollars have flooded the state on Mr. Newsoms behalf, campaign money the Democratic Party has used in get-out-the-vote efforts.
In Mr. Newsom, the president sees not just a member of his own party whose job is in jeopardy, but an ally on policy who has been pushing vaccine mandates and aggressive efforts to combat climate change, two issues that have defined the early days of Mr. Bidens presidency.