Racial Differences In Vote Choice Are Still Huge
Since American presidential elections are so close, fairly small shifts in the electorate really matter in affecting who wins. But I worry that the medias understandable emphasis on those shifts often overshadows longstanding patterns in American politics that include the overwhelming majority of voters, who arent swinging between the two parties. Despite the news coverage that sometimes implies that non-Hispanic white voters with college degrees are all flocking to the Democrats, about 42 percent of that group backed Trump in 2020, according to the recently releasedCooperative Election Study. About 64 percent of Hispanic Americans backed Biden, per CES, which might be hard to remember amid the intense coverage of Trumps gains among that voting bloc.
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In many ways, the 2020 election was basically like every recent Americanpresidentialelection: The Republican candidate won the white vote , and the Democratic candidate won the overwhelming majority of the Black , Asian American and Hispanic vote. Like in 2016, there was a huge difference among non-Hispanic white voters by education, as those with at least a four-year college degree favored Biden , while those without degrees favored Trump.
With all that said, however
Gender Gap In Party Identification Remains Widest In A Quarter Century
Pew Research Center conducted this analysis to understand the changes in partisan identification over time as well as the changing composition of the U.S. electorate and partisan coalitions. For this analysis, we used annual totals of data from Pew Research Center telephone surveys among registered voters. Due to smaller sample sizes in 2018 and 2019, the data from those years has been combined in Chapter 1. The surveys were conducted in both English and Spanish. Each survey reflects a balanced cross section of the nation, with the data weighted to match the U.S. adult population by gender, age, education, race and ethnicity and other categories.
Republicans hold wide advantages in party identification among several groups of voters, including white men without a college degree, people living in rural communities in the South and those who frequently attend religious services.
Democrats hold formidable advantages among a contrasting set of voters, such as black women, residents of urban communities in the Northeast and people with no religious affiliation.
With the presidential election on the horizon, the U.S. electorate continues to be deeply divided by race and ethnicity, education, gender, age and religion. The Republican and Democratic coalitions, which bore at least some demographic similarities in past decades, have strikingly different profiles today.
Johnson Declines Vaccine Most Wisconsin Gop Congressmen Mum
Even in Congress, some members have declined to get their shots. The Washington-based political site Axios reported on Sunday that only 75 percent of the House is confirmed to have been vaccinated against the coronavirus.
“I think that probably provides me the best immunity possible, actually having had the disease,” Johnson told CBS 58. “I don’t feel pressure that I need to get a vaccine. I’d rather let other people who want to get the vaccine get it before I do.”
The CDC says a vaccine provides better protection, and scientists dont yet know how long immunity from having had the disease lasts. Vaccinations for elected leaders started in December, and a supply of the drug was set aside for Congress.
Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., steps into an elevator as the Senate holds a voting marathon on the Democrats’ $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill that’s expected to end with the chamber’s approval of the measure, at the Capitol in Washington, Friday, March 5, 2021. When the Senate took up the measure on Thursday, Johnson forced an extraordinary half-day holdup on the bill by demanding the chamber’s clerks read aloud the entire 628-page measure which took 10 hours and 44 minutes and ended shortly after 2 a.m. J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photos
What Is Happening To The Republicans
In becoming the party of Trump, the G.O.P. confronts the kind of existential crisis that has destroyed American parties in the past.
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But, for all the anxiety among Republican leaders, Goldwater prevailed, securing the nomination at the Partys convention, in San Francisco. In his speech to the delegates, he made no pretense of his ideological intent. Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, he said. Moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue. Goldwaters crusade failed in November of 1964, when the incumbent, Lyndon Johnson, who had become President a year earlier, after Kennedys assassination, won in a landslide: four hundred and eighty-six to fifty-two votes in the Electoral College. Nevertheless, Goldwaters ascent was a harbinger of the future shape of the Republican Party. He represented an emerging nexus between white conservatives in the West and in the South, where five states voted for him over Johnson.
agitates the community with ill-founded jealousies and false alarms, kindles the animosity of one part against another, foments occasionally riot and insurrection. It opens the door to foreign influence and corruption, which find a facilitated access to the government itself through the channels of party passions.
The Changing Composition Of The Electorate And Partisan Coalitions
The demographic profile of voters has changed in important ways over the past two decades. Overall, the electorate is getting older, and this is seen more among Republican voters than among Democrats.
In addition, the electorate, like the U.S. population, has become much more racially and ethnically diverse. This shift is reflected much more in the demographic profile of Democratic voters than among Republicans.
A majority of all registered voters are ages 50 and older. This is little changed from 2012 , though is much higher than in 2004 or 1996 .
The shares of both parties voters who are ages 50 and older have increased over the past two decades.
However, while a majority of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters are ages 50 and older , a smaller share of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are in that age group . In 1996, the age composition of the two parties looked more similar. Roughly four-in-ten voters in both parties were at least 50 years old .
Nearly a quarter of voters are ages 65 and older, up from 20% eight years ago; by comparison, the share of voters who are under age 30 has remained relatively stable . Voters who are 65 and older make up larger shares in both parties than do voters under age 30. However, the difference is much larger among Republican voters than among Democrats .
Wide Divides In Partisanship Persist By Race And Ethnicity
Some of the largest differences in partisanship continue to be seen across racial and ethnic groups.
The GOP continues to maintain an advantage in leaned party identification among white voters . By contrast, sizable majorities of black, Hispanic and Asian American voters identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. Among black voters, 83% identify or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with just 10% who say they are Republican or lean toward the GOP.
The Democratic Party also holds a clear advantage over the GOP in leaned party identification among Hispanic voters , though the margin is not as large as among black voters.
Among English-speaking Asian American voters, 72% identify or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with just 17% who identify with or lean toward the GOP.
The balance of partisanship among white, black and Hispanic voters has been generally stable over the past decade. However, English-speaking Asian American voters have shifted toward the Democratic Party.
Black Leaders Were Gradually Pushed Out
For a generation after Reconstructions end, these Southern state parties had a significant number of black Republicans in leadership positions. In Texas, for example, Norris Wright Cuney a black man was the state party boss between 1884 and 1896.
But over time, white-supremacist Republicans known as the Lily-Whites pushed black leaders like Cuney and their white allies known as the Black-and-Tans out of the party.
Although this fight was mostly over control of federal patronage, the Lily-Whites argued that the only way for the GOP to win elections in the region again was to become a white party and purge its black leaders. This was because black voters were largely disenfranchised and white Southern voters were unwilling to vote for a Negro party.
To find out how and when Lily-Whites took control of each Republican state party organization, we collected data on the race of all Southern delegates to Republican National Conventions between 1868 and 1952. Our data shows a common pattern: Most Southern states saw a major decline in black leadership at some point in the early 20th century.
In some states like North Carolina, Alabama and Virginia the purge of black leaders was quick and lasting. Other states fended off the Lily-Whites for a time. Mississippi, for example, remained under the control of Perry Howard, a black man, until 1960 and consistently sent majority black delegations to the GOP convention.
Percent Of Republican Men Have Favorable View Of White Nationalists
Benjamin Fearnow, Newsweek, July 31, 2021
Anew poll shows that nearly a quarter of Republican men surveyed said they have either a very or somewhat favorable view of white nationalists in America today, while a double-digit percentage of the GOP male voters have a very favorable view of white nationalist groups.
A Morning Consult national tracking poll of 2,000 registered U.S. voters was released Friday and found that voters overall reject white supremacist groups by overwhelming percentages.
But among Republican-leaning male voters, 23 percent responded that they have a favorable view of white nationalist groups. Eleven percent of Republican men surveyed said they have a very favorable view while 12 percent said they are only somewhat favorable to white nationalists in the United States.
Seventeen percent of Democrat men in the survey said they have some form of favorable view of white nationalist groups.
Only 7 percent of overall registered U.S. voters said they have a favorable view of white supremacistsseveral percentage points lower than so-called white nationalists.
On the other hand, the survey found a more than two-thirds majority of both Republican men and women said they have a very unfavorable view of Antifa. And even among Democrats and Independents, Antifa barely registered any support above single-digit percentiles.
Percent Of Republican Men Have Favorable View Of White Nationalists: Poll
A new poll shows that nearly a quarter of Republican men surveyed said they have either a very or somewhat favorable view of white nationalists in America today, while a double-digit percentage of the GOP male voters have a “very favorable” view of white nationalist groups.
A Morning Consult national tracking poll of 2,000 registered U.S. voters was released Friday and found that voters overall reject white supremacist groups by overwhelming percentages. And large majorities say they’ve either never heard of or have no opinion of Antifa, a loose-knit group of anti-fascists.
But among Republican-leaning male voters, 23 percent responded that they have a favorable view of white nationalist groups. Eleven percent of Republican men surveyed said they have a “very favorable” view while 12 percent said they are only “somewhat” favorable to white nationalists in the United States.
Seventeen percent of Democrat men in the survey said they have some form of “favorable” view of white nationalist groups.
The poll showed that Republican men outweighed self-described “conservative” men in offering support to white nationalist groups by sizable percentages. And only about half of GOP women who were surveyed expressed any positive views of white nationalists compared to their male counterparts.
Only 7 percent of overall registered U.S. voters said they have a favorable view of white supremacistsseveral percentage points lower than so-called white nationalists.
National Polls Show Lower White And Older Support For Trump
Exit polls released by the national election consortium Edison Research allow for national- and state-level comparisons with those from 2016. Figure 1 shows the shifts in Democratic minus Republican voter margins for racial groups.
While whites continued to favor the Republican candidate in 2020as they have in every presidential election since 1968it is notable that this margin was reduced from 20% to 17% nationally. At the same time, the Democratic margins for each of the major nonwhite groups was somewhat reduced. The Black Democratic marginwhile still high, at 75%was the lowest in a presidential election since 2004. The Latino or Hispanic and Asian American Democratic margins of 33% and 27% were the lowest since the 2004 and 2008 elections, respectively. These shifts do not apply to all states, and are not applicable to most battleground states where voters of color were crucial to Bidens win
It is clear that white voting blocs start at different levels of Democratic or Republican support. In fact, there was a modest decline in Republican support in a key Trump base: white men without college educations. This group showed a reduced Republican advantage from 48% to a still sizeable 42% between 2016 and 2020.
When Will Republicans Face Demographic Reality
In 2013, after the Republican Party had lost the popular vote for the fifth time in six elections, the Republican National Committee issued its Growth and Opportunity Project report better known as the autopsy report calling for the GOP to recognize and respond to the nations changing demographics. Under the heading America Looks Different, the report observed that whites would become a minority sometime in the 2040s. Unless greater numbers of Latinos, Asian Americans, and African Americans could be persuaded to vote Republican, the reports authors warned, demographic changes would tilt the playing field even more in the Democratic direction.
Donald Trump, as the Republican presidential candidate in 2016, rejected virtually every recommendation advanced by the autopsy report and still managed to win, even while losing the popular vote. Although the movement toward the majority-minority crossover has continued apace during Trumps presidency, the proposition that demographic change will deliver the Democrats an enduring electoral majority no longer seems as imminent as it once did.
The report refrains from making predictions about which party is likely to benefit from the shifts that it describes. Two papers that accompany the report, however, do speculate on whether these changes will prove baneful or beneficial for the long-term political health of the Republican Party.
The Republican Party Is Getting Even Whiter
The House’s only black Republican will not seek re-election.
Andrew Harnik/AP Photo
Representative Will Hurd applauds before NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg addresses a Joint Meeting of Congress on Capitol Hill.
Will Hurd apparently had enough. The Texas congressman announced last week that he will not run for re-election, one of a string of Republicans to do so in recent days. Perhaps it was that being in the congressional minority is no fun, or perhaps Hurd felt isolated as a relative moderate . Or perhaps it was the fact that as the lone African American Republican in the House, Hurd could no longer stand being asked to defend Donald Trump.
Whatever the reason, Hurd’s departure was just the most vivid recent illustration of the fact that the Republican Party, already extraordinarily white and male, is getting even more so. There are only 13 women among the 197 Republicans in the House of Representatives, making their caucus an incredible 93 percent male. Two of those women have already announced that they won’t be running for re-election in 2020 either. And as it stands now, the GOPs congressional representatives in Congress are 95 percent white.
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Discrimination Against Whites Needs More Attention Say About Half Of White Republicans In 3 Southern States
In Georgia, white likely voters are divided along party lines on their views of the attention given to discrimination against Black people. Some 77 percent of white Republicans say “too much attention” is being paid to the topic, versus 14 percent of white Democrats, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll of about 3,500 voters in the Southern states of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.
About half of white registered Republican voters in those states say more attention needs to be given to discrimination against white people in their communities. Black voters polled in the states overwhelmingly say President Donald Trump is paying “too little attention” to the “needs and problems” of Black people.
Among white likely voters in Georgia, Democrats largely agree with Black voters’ views on racial discrimination against Black people, with 58 percent say “not enough” attention is focused on it, versus only six percent of white Republicans. Black likely voters in Georgia are predominately in agreement, at 74 percent, that “not enough” attention is given to discrimination against Black people. Only 11 percent said “too much” attention is being given to it.
Although white people in Georgia are widely divided along party lines in terms of their racial discrimination views, gender distinctions reveal men are more likely to approve of Trump’s views on discrimination than women.
Newsweek reached out to both presidential campaigns for additional remarks Sunday afternoon.
Republicans Can Govern Without Winning A Majority That Threatens Our Democracy
Other surveys and precinct-level data suggest that the Trump swing among Hispanics could have been larger than CES found, with Trump gainingin the upper-single digits and winning the support of over 35 percent of Latino voters. But generally, the story of 2020 is that Trump did better with Asian American and Hispanic voters than in 2016, while Biden did better than Hillary Clinton among non-Hispanic white voters.
And these shifts had electoral consequences. Republicans flipped two U.S. House seats in California with Asian American candidates running in those districts, which have relatively high shares Asian American voters. Gains by Trump and GOP congressional candidates among Miami-area Latino voters helped flip two more House seats to the GOP, according to a new analysis of Latino voters by Equis Research. Arguably the most important shift in the electorate was Bidens gain with white voters, since white voters are both the largest bloc in the electorate and make up a disproportionately large share of the vote in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin.
Southern Black Voters Used To Support Republicans
Right after the Civil War, black voters were the Republican Partys main supporters in the South. When formerly enslaved blacks became eligible to vote and run for office, they voted for the party of Lincoln, and GOP state organizations in the South were biracial. Both blacks and whites held leadership positions in the party.
Beginning in the early 1870s, Southern Democrats in cooperation with terrorist groups like the Ku Klux Klan began to restrict black suffrage. They did so first through direct violence and intimidation and, later, by passing legislation to effectively disenfranchise black citizens. As a result, the GOP lost its core constituency.
In a recent article, and in our forthcoming book, , we look at Republican state party organizations in the South before the civil rights era. While the GOP consistently lost Southern elections between the late 1870s and the middle of the 20th century, each Southern state had its own Republican Party organization. These organizations focused not on winning elections, but on participating in national conventions and distributing federal patronage when a Republican held the White House.
Polling Data Shows Republican Party Affiliation Is Down As Independents Leaning Toward The Democratic Party Surge
Democrats have a nine-percentage-point affiliation advantage over Republicans at the moment.
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The GOP is losing its grip, according to the latest Gallup poll.
The number of Americans identifying as Republicans or as independents who lean toward the GOP dropped to 40% in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the number of Democrats or independents leaning toward the Democratic party hitting 49%. And that nine-percentage-point lead is the greatest Democratic advantage that Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012, when former President Barack Obama was re-elected.
Gallup routinely measures U.S. adults party identification and the political leanings of independents. The latest poll surveyed a random sample of 3,960 U.S. adults by phone between January and March of 2021. And while Democratic Party affiliation actually dropped by one point from the fourth quarter of 2020, to 30% where it has hovered for most of the past eight years the number of Americans identifying as independent rose to 44% from 38% last quarter. And this growing number of independents came at the expense of the Republican party, as 19% of independents said they lean Democrat, compared with 15% leaning Republican. Most of the remaining 11% of independents didnt swing either way.
And several events have happened during those three months that could position the Democratic Party more favorably in voters eyes, the Gallup report noted.
White Male Minority Rule Pervades Politics Across The Us Research Shows
- White men are 30% of US population but 62% of officeholders
- Incredibly limited perspective represented in halls of power
From county officials and sheriffs to governors and senators, white male minority rule pervades politics in the United States, according to a new report published on Wednesday.
White men represent 30% of the population but 62% of officeholders, dominating both chambers of Congress, 42 state legislatures and statewide roles across the nation, the analysis shows.
I think if we saw these numbers in another country, we would say there is something very wrong with that political system, said Brenda Choresi Carter, the campaigns director.
We would say, how could that possibly be a democratic system with that kind of demographic mismatch?
Two factors perpetuate white male control over virtually every lever of US government: the huge advantage enjoyed by incumbents, and the Republican partys continued focus on mostly white male candidates.
As the US barrels toward a minority-white population within a matter of decades, some believe elected officials will inevitably become more diverse. But that logic is flawed: women have always been half of the country, and they are still chronically underrepresented in government.
Last November, 96% of congressional incumbents held on to their seats, suggesting that officeholders who win their primaries benefit from a similar edge during the general election.
The Gop Is Still The White Party And American Politics Are As Racial As Ever
Chris Roberts, American Renaissance, November 6, 2020
According to exit polls, which are subject to revision, Donald Trumps share of the non-white vote was higher in 2020 than 2016, but the increase was very small.
Some may be tempted to write about these numbers deceptively: In 2020, Donald Trump won 150 percent of his 2016 share of the black vote. Thats true 12 percent is 150 percent of 8 percent, but its still a small number, and it lacks context. Since 1964, Republican presidential candidates have won between 4 and 15 percent of the black vote. In 2016, Mr. Trump was on the low end of that range; in 2020, he reached its high end. However, it is not exceptionally high, and out of 12 other Republican candidacies since 1964, five did as well as Mr. Trump or better.
Almost every election, conservative Pollyannas claim this will be the year the GOP wins one third of the black vote. This year, like every other, proved them wrong.
Trump is going to win more of the black vote than any Republican in history.
As with Georgie W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, two states gave him a big push with Hispanics: Texas and Florida, where a large share of Hispanics live, and where they are most conservative and most likely to consider themselves white. In 2016, candidate Trump won 34 percent of Texas Hispanics; in 2020 he won 40 percent. In 2016, Trump won 35 percent of Florida Hispanics; in 2020 he won 47 percent.