Vote Splits Based On Top Issue In 2022
Voters who said abortion, guns or threats to democracy were the biggest problem facing the country backed Democrats by a wide margin.
Most important problem facing the country today
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters from July 5-7. All figures are rounded. Some respondents did not provide demographic information.
Voters who said issues related to abortion, guns or threats to democracy were the biggest problem facing the country backed Democrats by a wide margin, 66 percent to 14 percent.
For some progressive voters, recent conservative policy victories make it hard to stay on the sidelines.
Lucy Ackerman, a 23-year-old graphic designer in Durham, N.C., said Mr. Biden had repeatedly failed to live up to election promises. She recently registered with the Democratic Socialists of America. Nonetheless, she has committed herself to getting as many Democrats elected this fall as possible.
She says the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe made politics personal: She and her wife married after the decision leaked, out of fear that the court might roll back same-sex marriage rights next.
The recent events have given me this push to do more, she said. Ive gotten more involved in political efforts locally. Ive helped sign friends up to vote.
Table : Ranking Of States By Certain Demographic Characteristics
Notes: Parentheses in far right column indicate where the state ranked in the composite ranking back in 2019. Italics indicates when 2 or more states are tied in a certain ranking.
It is not surprising that the states at the top and bottom of the composite list are staunchly Republican and Democratic, respectively.
Among the 8 most Republican-friendly states, only one Iowa has been won by a Democratic presidential candidate in the last decade. The others West Virginia, Wyoming, Kentucky, South Dakota, Montana, North Dakota, and Idaho are rock-ribbed Republican states on the presidential level.
Similarly, the Democrats havent come close to losing any of the bottom 8 states on the list in recent presidential elections: Maryland, New Jersey, New York, California, Massachusetts, Illinois, Hawaii, and Connecticut.
And not surprisingly, several of the states around the midpoint of our list have been fiercely contested in recent presidential elections. The list of states between the rankings of 19 and 36 include New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Indeed, our 2019 list featured both Arizona and Georgia in the Democratic half of the rankings, presaging their shift from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020.
Its Leaders Made A Decision To Push Out Blacks That Helped It To Dominate Southern Politics
Its easy to forget that President Trumps surprising victory in 2016 depended more on the South than Rust Belt states. Trump won all the former Confederate states except Virginia. Combined, those 10 states provided 155 electoral votes more than half of his total.
Of course, the South has gone for Republicans for quite some time. Since 1972, Republican presidential nominees generally have carried a majority of Southern states. In five elections 1972, 1984, 1988, 2000 and 2004 they swept the region. Since support for the Republican Party is notoriously low among black voters, this means that the partys contemporary base consists of white, Southern voters.
Before the 1970s, Republicans didnt do nearly so well in the South. With the exception of the short period of Reconstruction after the Civil War, the GOP was notoriously ineffective in the ex-Confederacy. The region was dominated by the Democratic Party from the late 1870s through the second half of the 20th century.
Why the shift? Historians and political scientists traditionally emphasize how the national Democratic Party began supporting civil rights, which alienated white Southern voters. But our research shows that it wasnt just the Democrats who changed. The Republican Party in the South consciously chose to exclude blacks early in the 20th century, which helped it to dominate Southern politics decades later.
Don’t Miss: How Much Is A Jeep Patriot
Key Points From This Article
For all 50 states, we looked at 3 variables that are increasingly linked with partisan voting patterns: education level, race, and urbanization.
When the states are rank-ordered by their composite scores on these 3 measures, the Republican-voting states for the 2020 presidential election cluster on one end of the spectrum, while the Democratic-voting states cluster at the other end, with many battleground states somewhere in the middle.
In both the top and bottom halves of our 1-through-50 list, only 5 out of 25 states broke ranks by voting for the presidential candidate who was at odds with the states demographic tendencies. This suggests that these 3 demographic factors have a strong influence on presidential voting behavior.
Percent Of Republican Men Have Favorable View Of White Nationalists: Poll
A new poll shows that nearly a quarter of Republican men surveyed said they have either a very or somewhat favorable view of white nationalists in America today, while a double-digit percentage of the GOP male voters have a “very favorable” view of white nationalist groups.
A Morning Consult national tracking poll of 2,000 registered U.S. voters was released Friday and found that voters overall reject white supremacist groups by overwhelming percentages. And large majorities say they’ve either never heard of or have no opinion of Antifa, a loose-knit group of anti-fascists.
But among Republican-leaning male voters, 23 percent responded that they have a favorable view of white nationalist groups. Eleven percent of Republican men surveyed said they have a “very favorable” view while 12 percent said they are only “somewhat” favorable to white nationalists in the United States.
Seventeen percent of Democrat men in the survey said they have some form of “favorable” view of white nationalist groups.
The poll showed that Republican men outweighed self-described “conservative” men in offering support to white nationalist groups by sizable percentages. And only about half of GOP women who were surveyed expressed any positive views of white nationalists compared to their male counterparts.
Don’t Miss: Will Trump Cut Social Security
Who Are North Carolinas 7 Million Registered Voters
This is the first in a three-part series on North Carolinas voters. Today, we take a look at North Carolinas 7 million registered voters. In the coming days, we will take a look at North Carolinas registered Republicans and Democrats, respectively.
As of July 25th, 2020, North Carolina had about 7.8 million voting-eligible adults and 7 million registered voters. Their partisan affiliation was roughly split between three groups: Democrat, unaffiliated, and Republican, with a slight lead to Democrats. Specifically:
- 2,537,032 or 36% were registered Democrat
- 2,344,632 or 33% were registered unaffiliated
- 2,104,881 or 30% were registered Republican and
- 47,334 or 0.7% were registered to another party.
Other party registrations included Libertarian , Constitution Party , and Green Party .
Who are these voters? And how do demographic characteristics vary among the largest affiliation groups ?
Voters Of Color Are Backing The Gop At Historic Levels
Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
We’re in the doldrums of the 2022 election season. Outside of the rescheduled Maryland primary, there are no federal primaries this month. That means political media denizens are looking for almost anything that they can focus on.
Recommended Reading: New England Patriots Baby Girl Clothes
What These Shifts Mean For Future Elections
The exit polls and results from this years presidential election paint a somewhat different picture than the previous two races. After Obamas second victory in 2012, Democrats were touting a voter constituency made up of young people, diverse voters, and college-educated whites that they felt would provide them solid support for several elections to come. It even prompted Republicans to issue an autopsy urging the inclusion of a wider voter base. Yet after Trumps 2016 victory with strong support from older, less urban, and noncollege whites, many Republicans stayed onboard their earlier train.
In retrospect, it seems that both the 2012 Obama coalition and the 2016 Trump coalition overperformed in those elections. The 2020 results suggest neither party can rely solely on those particular sets of voters. As I have , there is no doubt that changing demographicsespecially rising diversityshould benefit Democrats in the long run .
But in the interim, the results of the 2020 election make plain that both parties need to address the interests of a coalition made up of all of these groups. The Trump presidency did not do thisperhaps a Biden presidency can.
Race And Ethnicity Still Play A Role In Political Attitudes
Unlike Whites and Hispanics, Young African-Americans Remain Loyal to Obama and Democrats
Young voters claim an historic distinction: they played a key role in the election of the nations first African-American president. Yet despite varying levels of support for President Obama among whites, African-Americans and Latinos who voted for the Democrat by majorities in 2008, a deep racial divide that has been evident among young voters for more than 30 years appears to have only hardened — especially between young white and young black voters. And the disparity is not simply in how they vote it extends into which social networks they prefer as well.
Even as Obamas approval ratings have dipped, African-American youth remain largely supportive of the president, with 78 percent approving of the presidents job performance, compared to 31 percent of whites and 49 percent of Hispanics. Since we began our regular polling of the Obama administration in 2009, approval ratings among African-Americans have never been lower than 75 percent and in 9- of 11- IOP polls, they have been over 80 percent.
A racial divide in support of Congress can be seen as well 26 percent of whites and 56 percent of blacks give positive approval ratings to Congressional Democrats. Republican lawmakers experience a smaller racial gap, with 25 percent of whites approving of Republican members of Congress and 14 percent of blacks feeling the same way.
|Perspective on Major Issues by Race|
Read Also: New England Patriots Thursday Night Game
The Most Complete Picture Yet Of Americas Changing Electorate
Republicans and Democrats have amassed divergent coalitions that will make coming elections especially competitiveand bitter.
Can Big Data explain the passion and vitriol of American politics? Like almost everything else in modern life, the choices are multiplying for analysts looking to understand how the key groups in American society divide in presidential elections.
Once, researchers and political operatives had only a few options: some postelection academic surveys , precinct-level analyses, and, above all, the mainstay of Election Day television broadcastsexit polls.
Now the choices for understanding the electorates behavior have proliferated. The ANES poll has been joined , a consortium of academic researchers from some 50 institutions that surveys a huge sample of more than 60,000 voters. Catalist, a Democratic targeting firm, produces its own estimates of voting behavior, based on sophisticated modeling and polling it does with its database tracking virtually all actual voters. The Associated Press and Fox News teamed up with the venerable NORC at the University of Chicago this year to produce a competitor to the traditional exit polls .
Yesterday, the Pew Research Center released its eagerly awaited Validated Voters survey. Pew builds its findings by surveying adults it can identify as definitely having voted in November based on voting records, a methodology many analysts favor.
Class inversion is here to stay.
What Is Your Preference For The Outcome Of The 2022 Congressional Elections
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters from July 5-7.
Overall among registered voters, 41 percent said they preferred Democrats to control Congress compared with 40 percent who preferred Republican control.
Among likely voters, Republicans led by one percentage point, 44 percent to 43 percent, reflecting the tendency for the party out of power to enjoy a turnout advantage in midterms.
The results suggest that the wave of mass shootings and the recent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade have at least temporarily insulated the Democrats from an otherwise hostile national political environment while energizing the partys predominantly liberal activist base.
But the confluence of economic problems and resurgent cultural issues has helped turn the emerging class divide in the Democratic coalition into a chasm, as Republicans appear to be making new inroads among nonwhite and working-class voters perhaps especially Hispanic voters who remain more concerned about the economy and inflation than abortion rights and guns.
For the first time in a Times/Siena national survey, Democrats had a larger share of support among white college graduates than among nonwhite voters a striking indication of the shifting balance of political energy in the Democratic coalition. As recently as the 2016 congressional elections, Democrats won more than 70 percent of nonwhite voters while losing among white college graduates.
Also Check: Who Won Yesterday Democrats Or Republicans
Democrats Are More Racially And Ethnically Diverse And Less Religious
PRINCETON, NJ — About 9 out of 10 Republicans are non-Hispanic whites, and more than half of these are highly religious. That compares with 62% of the Democratic rank-and-file that is white and largely less religious, with blacks and Hispanics making up a much more substantial part of that party’s base.
These results are based on aggregated data from more than 220,000 Americans surveyed from early January through Aug. 15 of this year as part of Gallup Daily tracking. Whites classified as highly religious are those who say religion is important in their daily lives and who report attending religious services weekly or almost every week. Hispanics include everyone who identifies as Hispanic, regardless of race.
The mixture of religion and politics in the United States came to the fore again this past weekend at Glenn Beck’s high-visibility “Restoring Honor” rally in Washington, D.C. Beck mentioned God and religion frequently in his remarks. The rally was billed as nonpolitical, but the presence of former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, Beck’s involvement with the politically oriented Tea Party movement, and Beck’s own avowedly conservative persona and positions on the issues brought a political perspective to the event.
All in all, 47% of Republicans in the U.S. today can be classified as highly religious whites, compared with 24% of independents and 19% of Democrats.
Democrats Are More Likely To Be Moderate Or Liberal Hispanic Or Black Or Other Races
PRINCETON, NJ — More than 6 in 10 Republicans today are white conservatives, while most of the rest are whites with other ideological leanings only 11% of Republicans are Hispanics, or are blacks or members of other races. By contrast, only 12% of Democrats are white conservatives, while about half are white moderates or liberals and a third are nonwhite.
These data reinforce the basic challenge facing the Republican Party today as it ponders how best to remedy a situation that finds Democrats in control of the White House and both houses of Congress. Republicans have a clear monopoly on the allegiance of white conservative Americans, but the GOP’s challenge is figuring out whether this is enough of a base on which to build for the future. The alternative is for the GOP to broaden its base to include more minorities and/or more whites who are moderate or liberal in their ideological outlook — groups now predominantly loyal to the Democratic Party.
The current analysis is based on a sample of more than 26,000 interviews Gallup conducted May 1-27, 2009. Each of the three major political groupings — those who identify themselves as Republicans, as Democrats, and as independents — was decomposed into five mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories:
Read Also: Who Do Republicans Say Is The Whistleblower
When They Vote For Republicans White Women Generally Are Sustaining White Supremacy
Glenn Youngkin is Virginias governor-elect. White women helped seal the deal.
Exit poll estimates indicate about 57 percent of white womenvoted for the first-time Republican candidate, ensuring his victory over Terry McAuliffe, the states former Democratic governor. Generally, Republicans, including Youngkin, stand for weakening reproductive rights and against policies like paid family leave.
On the surface, these are issues one might assume most women would champion. Yet again that assumption has been proved wrong.
All politics are identity politics. And with white womens support of Republicans, the identity that seems to take precedence is race, not gender.
Two years into Trumps presidency, I had a conversation with Stephanie E. Jones-Rogers about her book They Were Her Property: White Women as Slave Owners in the American South. Long after the infamous Access Hollywood tape revealed Donald Trump on a hot mic bragging about grabbing womens genitals without their consent, political pundits were still parsing how a man accused of sexual misconduct by more than two dozen women garnered about 52 percent of white women voters in 2016.
In her book, Jones-Rogers deflated the falsehood that white women were, at best, tangential participants through nearly 250 years of chattel slavery. She recognized them as the ideological ancestors of the women who put Trump in the White House.
Americans Are Mistaken About Who Gets Welfare
Senior Reporter and Polling Editor, HuffPost
WASHINGTON President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress may soon embark on a racially-fraught policy battle over welfare.
We can lift our citizens from welfare, from dependence to independence, and from poverty to prosperity, Trump said in his State of the Union address last week, the latest signal that Republicans want welfare reform this year.
Trump has often pandered to racists among his supporters. He said Mexico sends rapists to the United States and that there were some fine people among the neo-Nazis who staged a deadly protest last year in Charlottesville, Virginia. When the president said Mexican heritage made it impossible for a judge to be fair, House Speaker Paul Ryan called it the textbook definition of racist.
The word welfare is different. Its a standard political term that Democrats, Republicans and journalists alike use though Republicans use it the most often. Theres nothing overtly racialized about welfare. You can even find it in the preamble to the U.S. Constitution.
And yet, the word is often loaded with racial meaning. As a new HuffPost/YouGovsurvey shows, much of the public has a distorted view of which groups receive the bulk of assistance from government programs. Fifty-nine percent of Americans say either that most welfare recipients are black, or that welfare recipiency is about the same among black and white people.
Recommended Reading: Who Do Republicans Think The Whistleblower Is