Dems Keep House Gop Holds Key Senate Seats Nbc News Projects
WASHINGTON Democrats will maintain of the House of Representatives, NBC News projects, but their path to taking control of the Senate has narrowed significantly as numerous Republican incumbents fended off strong opposition.
Democrats failed to pick up some of the Senate seats they were banking on to capture a majority. Their hopes for a big night were dashed up and down the ballot, as President Donald Trump outperformed his polls against Joe Biden in a race still to be decided.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins was by NBC News as the apparent winner.
Other GOP senators who were Democratic targets hung on: Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Montana Sen. Steve Daines and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham were all re-elected, NBC News projected.
Adding some uncertainty, the Georgia special election is headed to a runoff on Jan. 5 between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, NBC News projects.
Democrats will pick up a Senate seat in Colorado as John Hickenlooper is projected by NBC News to unseat Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, marking the partyâs first gain.
Offsetting that, Republicans will pick up a seat in Alabama, where Republican Tommy Tuberville is projected to defeat Democratic Sen. Doug Jones, NBC News projects.
In Arizona, the Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leads but NBC News rates it âtoo early to call.â
In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis leads Democrat Cal Cunningham narrowly but the race is rated âtoo close to call.â
Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah : Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, its worth kicking off the conversation around what we do and dont know about Republicans and Democrats odds headed into the midterms.
Lets start big picture. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Case in point: Since 1946, the presidents party has lost, on average, 27 House seats.
What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?
alex : Yes, and heres why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map are redrawn. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters.
geoffrey.skelley :Simply put, as that chart above shows, the expectation is that Democrats, as the party in the White House, will lose seats in the House.
nrakich : What they said!
United States Senate Elections 2020
|November 3, 2020|
|U.S. Senate Elections by State|
|U.S. House Elections|
Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 3, 2020, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2021.
Special elections were also held to fill vacancies that occurred in the 116th Congress, including 2020 special U.S. Senate elections in Arizona for the seat that John McCain won in 2016 and in Georgia for the seat that Johnny Isakson won in 2016.
Twelve seats held by Democrats and 23 seats held by Republicans were up for election in 2020. Heading into the election, Republicans had a majority with 53 seats. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats, or three in addition to winning the presidential election, to take control of the chamber. The vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.
On this page, you will find:
- Information on historical wave elections
Republicans On Course To Hold Senate Majority
WASHINGTON D.C, November 4, 2020 The Republican party looks set to hold its majority in the U.S. Senate, as election night draws to a close across the nation.
The latest figures show the Republicans with 47 confirmed seats and the Democrats with 45. At the time of writing only six seats remain unconfirmed: Alaska, Georgia, Georgia Special, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina.
Republicans are on target to hold both North Carolina and Maine, and also have a healthy lead in Michigan which currently has 68% of the vote counted.
Georgia also looks secure for the Republicans, with Sen. Perdue on target to hold his seat.
Of the six unconfirmed seats, only Georgia Special is without a clear winner and deemed a runoff.
Alaska currently has only 39% of the vote counted, with Rep. Dan Sullivan leading his Democrat challenger by 61.7% to 33.7%. Polls predict that Republicans will hold the seat.
The Democrats took a victory in Colorado, winning the seat from the Republicans, and also took the win in the Arizona Special election, after the death of Republican John McCain left the seat open.
However, the Democrats also lost their Alabama seat, as pro-life Republican Tommy Tuberville won the seat from Sen. Doug Jones.
Republicans have held a majority in the Senate since 2014, and prior to November 3 election night, held 53 seats.
Twitter just deplatformed President Trump premanently! And, other conservatives, including General Flynn and Sidney Powell, were also deplatformed.
Incoming Biden Administration And Democratic House Wont Have To Deal With A Republican
Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff wave to supporters during a joint rally on Nov. 15 in Marietta, Ga.
Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have defeated Georgias two incumbent Republican U.S. senators in the states runoff elections, the Associated Press said Wednesday, in a development that gives their party effective control of the Senate.
Ossoff and Warnock were projected the winners over Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler by the AP following campaigns that drew massive spending and worldwide attention because the runoffs were set to determine the balance of power in Washington. The AP , at about 2 a.m. Eastern, then followed with the call for Ossoff over Perdue on Wednesday afternoon.
President-elect Joe Bidens incoming administration and the Democratic-run House of Representatives now wont face the same checks on their policy priorities that they would have faced with a Republican-controlled Senate, though analysts have said the slim Democratic majority in the chamber could mean more power for moderate senators from either party.
It is looking like the Democratic campaign machine was more effective at driving turnout than the Republican one, said Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber in a note late Tuesday.
Warnock then made just before 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.
Iowa: Joni Ernst Vs Bruce Braley
Republican Joni Ernst defeated Rep. Bruce Braley in the Iowa Senate race to fill the open seat vacated by the retirement of Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democratic stalwart in the state. Ernst, 44, will be the first female senator to ever represent Iowa, a state that catapulted Barack Obamas career just six years ago.
Ernst, an Iraq war veteran, shocked the political establishment when she won a crowded GOP primary in June. Ernst, a little known state senator, burst onto the national scene after releasing an attention grabbing ad called Squeal, which featured her talking about castrating hogs.
Braley stumbled throughout his campaign from making remarks that insulted some Iowa farmers to threatening a lawsuit against his neighbor over roaming chickens. Republican and Democratic surrogates with potential 2016 ambitions flooded Iowa in the final weeks of the campaign to help their candidates.
Cori Bush Becomes Missouri’s First Black Congresswoman Cbs News Projects
Cori Bush, a progressive Democrat and activist, has become Missouri’s first Black congresswoman, according to CBS News projections. With 88% of votes reported, Bush is leading Republican Anthony Rogers 78.9% to 19% to represent the state’s first congressional district, which includes St. Louis and Ferguson.
Bush, 44, claimed victory on Tuesday, promising to bring change to the district. “As the first Black woman and also the first nurse and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me say this: To the Black women, the Black girls, the nurses, the essential workers, the single mothers, this is our moment,” she told supporters in St. Louis.
Read more here.
The Winding Road To Democratic Control
Following an anxious four days of waiting after the 2020 general election, nearly all major news networks declared that Joe Biden had exceeded 270 electoral votes and won the presidency. Democrats also retained control of the U.S. House, although their majority has been trimmed back .
But the U.S. Senate still hung in the balance, a tantalizing prize for Democrats dreaming of a trifecta, and a bulwark against a Democratic agenda for Republicans who seek to hold onto some power under the new Biden administration that will be sworn in on Jan. 20, 2021.
Republicans claimed 50 Senate seats after the November election, two more than the 48 seats claimed by the Democratic Caucus at that time.
The Senates balance of power teetered on the fulcrum of Georgias two seats, both of which were decided by the January 5th runoff election. Georgia law requires candidates to be voted in with at least 50% of the votes cast; if a candidate does not reach that threshold the two candidates who received the highest number of votes face one another in a runoff election.
Georgias runoff election featured these match-ups:
Incumbent David Perdue versus Jon Ossoff .According to Georgias Secretary of State, Perdue received 88,000 more votes than Ossoff, but came up just shy of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. This is in part due to the 115,000 votes that went to Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel who will not appear on the January ballot.
Maine Senate Race A Toss
With polls closing at 8 p.m., the hotly contested Maine Senate race remains a toss-up. Senator Susan Collins, running for her fifth term, is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, but she is facing considerable skepticism from Democrats and independents who previously supported her. State Speaker of the House Sara Gideon is the Democratic candidate, and has posted record fundraising.
CBS News projects that Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware and Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts have both won reelection. Republican Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma also won reelection.
The Alabama Senate race is leaning toward Republican Tommy Tuberville, who is taking on incumbent Senator Doug Jones, the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate.
The Tennessee Senate race is also leaning Republican. The Mississippi Senate race is likely Republican. The Senate races in New Hampshire, Illinois, and Rhode Island are lean Democratic, and New Jersey is likely Democratic.
Trump’s Former Physician Wins House Seat
Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician who served under both Presidents Trump and Obama, has won his race in Texas’ 13th Congressional District. Jackson rose to prominence in 2018 when he gave a glowing press conference about Mr. Trump’s health.
Mr. Trump nominated Jackson to be Veterans Affairs secretary last year, but Jackson withdrew amid allegations that he drank on the job and over-prescribed medications. In his House race, Jackson has closely aligned himself with Mr. Trump. He has downplayed the coronavirus pandemic and criticized mask-wearing requirements. He has also promoted baseless claims about Biden’s mental health.
Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw also won reelection. Crenshaw is a conservative firebrand and a rising GOP star in the House.
Why Is There An Election In Georgia
The election is being rerun because of Georgia’s rule that a candidate must take 50% of the vote in order to win.
None of the candidates in November’s general election met that threshold.
With 98% of votes counted, US TV networks and the Associated Press news agency called the first of the two races for Mr Warnock.
Control of the Senate in the first two years of Mr Biden’s term will be determined by the outcome of the second run-off.
Mr Warnock is set to become the first black senator for the state of Georgia – a slavery state in the US Civil War – and only the 11th black senator in US history.
He serves as the reverend of the Atlanta church where assassinated civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr grew up and preached.
Claiming victory, he paid tribute to his mother, Verlene, who as a teenager worked as a farm labourer.
“The other day – because this is America – the 82-year-old hands that used to pick somebody else’s cotton went to the polls and picked her youngest son to be a United States senator,” he said.
If both Democrats win, the Senate will be evenly split 50-50, allowing incoming Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote. The Democrats narrowly control the House of Representatives.
Mr Ossoff has also claimed victory in his race against Republican Senator David Perdue, but that race is even tighter. At 33, he would be the Senate’s youngest member for 40 years.
Mr Biden won at least seven million more votes than the president.
Us Election 2020: Democrats’ Hopes Of Gaining Control Of Senate Fade
Democrats are rapidly losing hope of gaining control of the US Senate after underperforming in key states.
Controlling the Senate would have allowed them to either obstruct or push through the next president’s agenda.
The party had high hopes of gaining the four necessary seats in Congress’s upper chamber, but many Republican incumbents held their seats.
The Democrats are projected to retain their majority in the lower chamber, the House, but with some key losses.
With many votes still to be counted, the final outcome for both houses may not be known for some time.
Among the disappointments for the Democrats was the fight for the seat in Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins staved off a fierce challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon.
However, the night did see a number of firsts – including the first black openly LGBTQ people ever elected to Congress and the first openly transgender state senator.
The balance of power in the Senate may also change next January. At least one run-off election is due to be held that month in Georgia, since neither candidate has been able to secure more than 50% of votes.
This year’s congressional election is running alongside the battle for the White House between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
Of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 were Republican-held and 12 were Democrat.
Senators serve six-year terms, and every two years a third of the seats are up for re-election.
Cal Cunningham Concedes North Carolina Senate Race
Democrat Cal Cunningham conceded in the North Carolina Senate race on Tuesday, saying in a statement that he had called Republican incumbent Senator Thom Tillis to congratulate him on his victory.
“I just called Senator Tillis to congratulate him on winning re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate and wished him and his family the best in their continued service in the months and years ahead,” Cunningham said. “The voters have spoken and I respect their decision.”
CBS News projects that Tillis has won the race, after Cunningham’s concession. Tillis led Cunningham by nearly 100,000 votes as of Tuesday. The presidential race in North Carolina is still too close to call, although President Trump is currently in the lead. The full results of the election in North Carolina are unlikely to be known until later this week, as the deadline in the state to receive absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day is November 12.
What Are The Magic Numbers
It depends on who wins the presidency. If its former Vice President Joe Biden, Democrats must flip three seats because new VP Kamala Harris would get to cast any tie-breaking vote. If its President Donald Trump, Democrats would need to flip four seats to seize control of the Senate. They already control the U.S. House of Representatives. Currently, Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate.
With numerous races still uncalled in the Senate election, so far the Democrats have flipped seats in Arizona and Colorado, but Republicans flipped an Alabama seat.
Republicans also beat back Democratic challenges to retain seats in South Carolina, Montana, Kansas, Iowa, Maine and Texas. Democrats had launched aggressive challenges in attempts to pick up Senate seats in traditionally Republican areas, but that didnt happen for them.
Either side needs 51 seats to have a majority of seats in the Senate. According to Decision Desk HQ, Republicans had reached 48 seats and Democrats were at 47, as of 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on November 4.
However, Republicans were leading in several Senate races that had yet to be called.
In North Carolina, Republican Thom Tillis declared victory, but, according to WSOC-TV, not all votes had yet been counted and the race was too close to call on November 4.
In one of the two Georgia Senate races, Republican David Perdue was also leading with most returns in.
Where It Stands: Election Hinges On Key States Final Results May Take A While
McConnell is expected to remain leader of the GOP conference if Republicans hold the chamber. During Trump’s first term, McConnell led the effort to remake the federal judiciary with 220 judges confirmed, including three Supreme Court justices.
Democrats hoped that progressives’ concerns about Barrett replacing liberal icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court would help fuel their bid to oust Republicans, who confirmed her just days before Election Day.
Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the only Republican to vote against Barrett, was one of the most vulnerable members. But Collins was ahead early Wednesday in her bid against Democratic candidate Sarah Gideon, according to The Associated Press.
GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, also a top-tier target for Democrats, was leading in the AP vote count, but the race as of early Wednesday was still too close to call, as was North Carolina’s choice for president.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats hoped to win one or both Senate seats in Georgia. The contest between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has not yet been called by the AP. And the special election for the other seat will go to a runoff because no candidate received 50% of the vote Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will face Democrat Raphael Warnock, a pastor from Atlanta, on Jan. 5.
McConnell said the outcome of the presidential race is still unsettled and it may be another day or more before key Senate races are decided.
Could Flip Under The Right Conditions: Michigan Iowa Montana Kansas And Georgia Special Election
Michigan: Michigan is one of the most hotly contested states in the presidential race, and the reelection bid of Sen. Gary Peters will get caught up in that. Democrats say the fact that the coronavirus has hit Michigan hard makes it more likely Biden can win this state, which was crucial to Trumps 2016 victory. In the Senate race, Republicans have made a big deal out of John James, an Iraq War veteran and conservative media darling. James has outraised Peters for three straight quarters and is close to having as much money as Peters in the bank. Democrats argue Republicans are too bullish on a candidate who also lost a Senate race against a Democrat in 2018. Polls have shown this race close between the two.
Montana: Can a popular Democratic governor who won in Trump country unseat a sitting Republican senator? Term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock , a former 2020 presidential candidate, is running against Sen. Steve Daines . Bullock is the Democrat with the best shot, given hes won three times statewide, including when Trump swept the state in 2016. And in 2018, Sen. Jon Tester won a tough reelection fight. But can Bullock unseat a sitting Republican senator in a state that some strategists estimate could vote for Trump by as many as 20 points?
Democrats Probably Need To Win All Four Toss
There remain some big wild cards in the race for the Senate majority: Neither side has a handle yet on how the coronavirus pandemic, or the race between President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden, will shape individual Senate races.
Democrats, once seen as a long shot to take the majority from Republicans in November, have had a lot go their way in recent months. Theyve persuaded some choice candidates to jump in and make races more competitive, and their fundraising has been strong.
But to pick up at least four Senate seats, Democrats probably have to win all four toss-up races. That, plus a win by Biden, would give them an effective Senate majority, since his vice president could cast tie-breaking votes.
With a lot more unknowns than normal at this point in the election cycle, here are the 10 races most likely to flip. Because so many races are so close, rather than rank them, I grouped them into three tiers: Likely to flip; Toss-ups; Could flip under the right conditions.
Opinion:the House Looks Like A Gop Lock In 2022 But The Senate Will Be Much Harder
Redistricting will take place in almost every congressional district in the next 18 months. The party of first-term presidents usually loses seats in midterms following their inauguration President Barack Obamas Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trumps Republicans lost 40 in 2018 but the redistricting process throws a wrench into the gears of prediction models.
President George W. Bush saw his party add nine seats in the House in 2002. Many think this was a consequence of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America nearly 14 months earlier, but the GOP, through Republican-led state legislatures, controlled most of the redistricting in the two years before the vote, and thus gerrymandering provided a political benefit. Republicans will also have a firm grip on redistricting ahead of the 2022 midterms.
The Brennan Center has that the GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats, though the final numbers could fluctuate once the pandemic-delayed census is completed. Gerrymandering for political advantage has its critics, but both parties engage in it whenever they get the opportunity. In 2022, Republicans just have much better prospects. Democrats will draw districts in Illinois and Massachusetts to protect Democrats, while in Republican-controlled states such as Florida, Ohio and Texas, the GOP will bring the redistricting hammer down on Democrats.
Lindsey Graham Wins Reelection In South Carolina Senate Race Cbs News Projects
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won reelection, CBS News projects, after a contentious race. Although Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison outraised Graham by a significant amount, it was not enough to flip a Senate seat in the deep-red state.
Graham led the high-profile confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Harrison hit him for his reversal on confirming a Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.
Meanwhile, Republican Roger Marshall has also won the Senate race in Kansas, defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier.
Potentially Competitive Us Senate Races In 2022
Held by Republicans
|Maggie Hassan||Biden +7.4|
The Democrats could also have opportunities in Ohio, where Sen. Rob Portman is retiring, and in Florida, home of Sen. Marco Rubio , but both of these once-preeminent swing states have drifted toward the GOP in recent elections and could be tough to pick off in 2022.
The GOPs top two pickup opportunities are also readily apparent: Arizona and Georgia. Both were among the most narrowly decided states that Biden won, and both have a history of favoring Republicans. Both are home to Democratic incumbents who won their seats in 2020 special elections: Sens. Mark Kelly and Raphael G. Warnock . The GOPs path back to a majority begins with reclaiming these two states.
Beyond that, though, obvious GOP opportunities are harder to come by. New Hampshire could be competitive if popular Gov. Chris Sununu challenges Sen. Maggie Hassan , but it has trended in the Democrats favor in recent years, going for Biden by seven points last year. Ditto Nevada, where first-term Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is up for reelection, but the GOP bench is somewhat limited as the state has also drifted blue in recent years.
Democrats control of the House is arguably more imperiled than their hold on the Senate. Thats a function of the Senate seats that are up for reelection as well as the lay of the land in the House.
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