The 2024 Presidential Election Will Be Close Even If Trump Is The Gop Nominee
One very important thing we should have all taken away from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests is that the two major parties are in virtual equipose . The ideological sorting-out of the two parties since the 1960s has in turn led to extreme partisan polarization, a decline in ticket-splitting and and in number of genuine swing voters. Among other things, this has led to an atmosphere where Republicans have paid little or no price for the extremism theyve disproportionately exhibited, or for the bad conduct of their leaders, most notably the 45th president.
Indeed, the polarized climate encourages outlandish and immoral base mobilization efforts of the sort Trump deployed so regularly. Some Republicans partisans shook their heads sadly and voted the straight GOP ticket anyway, And to the extent there were swing voters they tended strongly to believe that both parties were equally guilty of excessive partisanship, and/or that all politicians are worthless scum, so why not vote for the worthless scum under whom the economy hummed?
The bottom line is that anyone who assumes Republicans are in irreversible decline in presidential elections really hasnt been paying attention.
Georgia Is Turning Blue
It had been 28 years since a Democratic presidential candidate carried Georgia. It had been 20 years since a Democrat won a Senate seat in Georgia, and 14 years since they won any kind of state-wide race. Republicans had never lost a modern run-off election in Georgia.
That has now changed – a remarkable development in the fast-growing business heart of the American South.
On Tuesday the election analysis website fivethirtyeight.com speculated about whether Georgia would turn out more like Virginia, a southern state that has become reliably Democratic, or North Carolina, a swing state that still mostly tilts Republican.
Election Results 2020: Control Of The Us House
Democrats maintained a majority in the U.S. House as a result of the 2020 elections, winning 222 seats to Republicans’ 213. Democrats three seats and Republicans fifteen, including one held by a Libertarian in 2020.
Heading into the November 3, 2020, election, Democrats held a 232-197 advantage in the U.S. House. Libertarians held one seat, and five seats were vacant. All 435 seats were up for election, with Republicans needing to gain a net 21 seats to win a majority in the chamber.
In , Democrats gained a net 40 seats to win a majority. Republicans had held a majority in the chamber since 2010.
Ballotpedia tracked 41 districts as battleground races: 20 held by Democrats heading into the election, 20 held by Republicans, and one held by a Libertarian. Democrats defended 30 seats that President carried in 2016, while Republicans defended five seats that Hillary Clinton carried that year.
In 2020, 49 U.S. House seats were open, meaning the incumbent was not running for re-election. Thirty-six of those seats were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, eight were open because the incumbent was defeated in a primary or party convention, and five were open due to a vacancy.
Cbs News Projects Mitch Mcconnell Wins Senate Race In Kentucky
CBS News projects that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has won his reelection race. McConnell was challenged by Democrat Amy McGrath, who ran unsuccessfully for a House seat two years ago.
CBS News projects Mitch McConnell wins reelection in Kentucky.
CBS News November 4, 2020
McGrath had won national attention and significant fundraising when she entered the race, but she had to withstand a bruising primary challenge from the left. After defeating Charles Booker in the primary, McGrath sustained a fundraising advantage over McConnell in the closing months of the race, but was unable to translate those funds into in-person support.
CBS News also projects that New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, has won reelection.
Hope For Biden’s Agenda
For two years, the Republican-controlled Senate bottled up virtually every piece of legislation coming out of the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives. With a Georgia victory, that blockage has been removed.
That’s good news for Biden’s rather extensive legislative agenda – on issues like healthcare, the environment, government reform and the economy – which should be able to survive the House and at least get an up-or-down vote in the Senate.
A 50-50 Senate tie won’t mean the Green New Deal or a public health-insurance option are coming any time soon, however. There’s still the filibuster, which mandates 60 votes to pass major legislation, to contend with, and even bills that can get by with a simple majority will have to satisfy Democratic centrists like Joe Manchin of West Virginia and the two senators from Arizona.
Another round of coronavirus relief seems probable, however, including larger per-person relief payments to all Americans. A simple congressional majority can also vote to rescind any regulations the Trump administration enacted in the final months of his presidency. That will, at the very least, get the Biden presidency off on the right foot.
Green Light For Biden’s Nominees
While the filibuster will be a continued thorn in Democratic sides when it comes to legislation, it no longer applies to presidential nominations. That means Biden’s selection for his administration, from the Cabinet on down, can be confirmed solely with Democratic votes . That’s good news for nominees who might have been controversial, like Neera Tanden, Biden’s budget office pick.
Since several centrist Republicans have already said they will usually defer to the new president’s appointments, it should be smooth sailing for most of his nominees.
The same goes for Biden’s judicial appointments, including any Supreme Court vacancies that open up in the near future. Donald Trump in his four years placed 234 judges on the federal bench, including three to the Supreme Court. That has given him a political legacy that will long outlast his one term in office. Biden, thanks to Georgia, should have the opportunity to start rolling back some of those gains.
Reconstruction And Jim Crow
After the American Civil War, Georgia was initially placed under a military governorship, but in 1868 the Republican Party succeeded in capturing the legislature and electing Rufus Bullock as governor. Support for the Republicans came from the 44% of the state’s population that was African American, along with whites from the mountainous north. Bullock was the first Republican governor of Georgia, but he was threatened with impeachment and fled the state in 1871, leaving the governorship to Benjamin Conley, the president of the Georgia Senate. Conley, the second Republican governor of the state, only lasted 72 days: the legislature quickly called a special election, and Conley was succeeded by a Democrat, James Milton Smith, resulting in the end of Reconstruction in Georgia.
After 1882, the Republican Party did not offer a full slate of candidates in Georgia , cementing Democratic one-party rule in the state. By the turn of the 20th century, the party had developed a reputation among white Georgians as a “Negro party” led by corrupt whites and plagued by local infighting. Black Georgians who could register to vote tended to vote for Republicans, who remained a minority in the General Assembly throughout the Jim Crow era. After the resignation of W. H. Rogers of McIntosh County in 1907 and the full disenfranchisement of African-Americans was completed in 1908, only white legislators could be elected by black voters.
‘miserable And Emboldened’: If Republicans Lose The House They’ll Be On Defense
House GOP leaders are expecting to oversee a more conservative conference next year, with many of their losses coming in seats held by centrists. That tilt to the right is likely to mean even more pressure by top leaders for members to stick together to vote on legislation that is closely aligned to Trump and his agenda.
Senate races in mostly red states benefited from Trump focus
Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky talks to reporters after the Senate voted to confirm Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh on Oct. 6.
Senate Democrats had faced a steep challenge as they fought to keep seats in states Trump won by double-digit margins in the worst battlefield for any party in modern history.
Just six Republicans were up for re-election; all but one of them ran in safely Republican states.
Democrats landed on a plan to allow each vulnerable Democrat to run an independent campaign without a unified platform. For example, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota could stump on protecting farmers while Joe Manchin in West Virginia promised new health protections for coal miners.
Democrats Got Millions More Votes So How Did Republicans Win The Senate
Senate electoral process means although Democrats received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, that does not translate to more seats
The 2018 midterm elections brought , who retook the House of Representatives and snatched several governorships from the grip of Republicans.
But some were left questioning why suffered a series of setbacks that prevented the party from picking up even more seats and, perhaps most consequentially, left the US Senate in Republican hands.
Among the most eye-catching was a statistic showing Democrats led Republicans by more than 12 million votes in Senate races, and yet still suffered losses on the night and failed to win a majority of seats in the chamber.
Constitutional experts said the discrepancy between votes cast and seats won was the result of misplaced ire that ignored the Senate electoral process.
Because each state gets two senators, irrespective of population, states such as Wyoming have as many seats as California, despite the latter having more than 60 times the population. The smaller states also tend to be the more rural, and rural areas traditionally favor .
This year, because Democrats were defending more seats, including California, they received more overall votes for the Senate than Republicans, but that does not translate to more seats.
However, some expressed frustration with a system they suggest gives an advantage to conservative-leaning states.
The rise of minority rule in America is now unmistakable
The Future Could Actually Be Bright For Republicans
The most common political narrative outside MAGA-land is that the Republican Party is screwed, and richly deserves the ignominious future it faces.
Until recently the GOP was a reasonably normal and intermittently successful center-right political party, not wildly different from its counterparts in other countries with a two-party system, despite some racist and militarist habits that burst into view in times of stress. But then America elected a Black president, and Republicans went a little crazy, according to those outside their circles. First they abetted a destructively antediluvian Tea Party Movement and then lurched into the arms of an evil charlatan who somehow got elected president and spent four years trashing hallowed conservative principles and losing both Congress and the White House before his disgraceful and violence-inflected departure.
Worse yet, in the face of huge demographic challenges that beg for a new approach, the Republican Party has now lashed itself to a Trumpian mast going forward, following the most consistently unpopular president in American history in his bizarre crusade to deny he has ever lost anything. Meanwhile a shockingly united Democratic Party is whipping a few decades worth of liberal legislation through Congress as Republicans whine about cancel culture and try to sell the idea that Joe Biden is actually Che Guevara.
House Election Results For Congressional Races
Trump was not on the ballot this year, but the midterm election was viewed as a nationwide referendum on his leadership. Now, leaders from both parties will pursue vastly different agendas on Capitol Hill. Democrats in the House vow to launch wide-ranging investigations into Trump, his business dealings and the transparency of his administration. Republicans in the Senate will continue to install more Trump nominees to the federal judiciary and defend the president and his policies.
Pelosi’s spokesman, Drew Hammill, about the phone call between the president and the House minority leader: “President Trump called Leader Pelosi at 11:45 p.m. this evening to extend his congratulations on winning a Democratic House Majority. He acknowledged the Leader’s call for bipartisanship in her victory remarks.”
A divided Congress is likely to extend the heated battles of the 2018 campaign into the presidential election in 2020.
Early vote data released early Tuesday indicated that the electorate was younger and more diverse than in the last midterm election. Turnout levels were significantly higher across several demographic groups, and up in states with competitive Senate contests Arizona, Texas and Nevada.
The president’s impact played out differently in the roughly 80 competitive House races and more than a dozen close Senate contests.
House battlefield hinged on contests in suburban and exurban districts
Election 2016: Republicans Retain House And Senate
The Republican Party has kept its hold over Congress, capping a dire night for the Democrats.
, the Republicans retained their majorities in the House and Senate.
Republican dominance over Congress in principle enables Mr Trump to turn his policy plans into law.
But how easily this will happen is unclear given that key party leaders had refused to back him.
The night began with majority control of the Senate up for grabs, with 34 of the 100 seats available.
But the Democrats have so far gained just one seat in the Senate, with Tammy Duckworth, a double amputee Iraq war veteran, taking Mark Kirk’s place in Illinois. During a TV debate last month Mr Kirk Ms Duckworth’s Thai heritage, but later apologised.
Another bright spot was in Nevada, which Cortez Masto retained for the Democrats, beating Republican Joe Heck to become the first Latina US senator.
The final Senate seat to be declared is New Hampshire, where the result is said to be very close and where Democrat Maggie Hassan has declared victory over incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte.
Elsewhere Republicans hung on to other key seats:
Democrats also failed to significantly dent Republican advantage in the House, with just five Republican incumbents losing.
House Speaker Paul Ryan, who had distanced himself from Mr Trump after previously endorsing him, won re-election to the House of Representatives in Wisconsin.
Mcconnell Not Backing Down From Obama In Victory Speech
I dont expect the president to wake up tomorrow and view the world any differently than he did when he woke up this morning. He knows I wont either, McConnell said. But I do think we have an obligation to work together on issues where we can agree. I think we have a duty to. Just because we have a two-party system doesnt mean we have to be in perpetual conflict.
Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democrat who will lose his job as majority leader, said in a statement: The message from voters is clear: they want us to work together. I look forward to working with Senator McConnell to get things done for the middle class.
Pre-election polls showed a record low level of interest in the election, and those who did show up were not happy. Exit polls showed that 54 percent of voters disapprove of Obamas performance, and 79 percent gave the thumbs down to Congress.
John King Explains Why Infrastructure Bill Vote Is A Big Deal
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced Thursday she will create a select committee to investigate the January 6 attack on the Capitol after Republicans blocked the formation of an independent commission.
reported on Tuesday Judge rebukes GOP for downplaying US Capitol riot as he hands out first sentence in insurrectionmodeled after the 9/11 Commission voted to create the independent commissionspread lies about the 2020 election McCarthy’s conversations with Trump
Collins Says Gideon Called To Concede
Senator Susan Collins of Maine told supporters on Wednesday that her Democratic opponent, Sara Gideon, had called her to concede the race. Without taking Collins’ seat, Democrats have little change of claiming the Senate majority.
“I have news for everyone. I just received a very gracious call from Sara Gideon conceding the race,” Collins told supporters on Wednesday afternoon.
Collins, one of the more moderate members of Senate, was considered particularly vulnerable this year. If she had received under 50% of the vote, the race would have proceeded to a runoff, under Maine’s system of ranked-choice voting.
Gideon significantly outraised Collins, and hit the senator repeatedly for voting to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
What To Watch For
One of the most closely-watched aspects of the affair will be how Vice President Mike Pence handles it. The vice president will preside over the session and announce the winner. Axios that Trump believes Pence affirming Bidens victoryas a number of previous vice presidents have done for rival candidates without controversywould be the ultimate betrayal, and Pence has reportedly met with House lawmakers who intend to challenge the results. Former Senate historian Donald Ritchie told the Times theres not much can do to actually change the results, though, as his job is really just to read them out aloud. The vice president could choose to simply avoid the issue by skipping the vote entirely, the Times notes. This would leave Pences duties up to Senate president pro tempore Sen. Chuck Grassley , who has Biden as the winner of the election.
How Maine And Nebraska’s Split Electoral Votes Could Affect The Election
As the race drags into Wednesday, it appears two congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska could prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of the election.
Maine and Nebraska are the only states in the nation that split their electoral votes. Maine awards two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, but also allocates an electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of its two congressional districts. Nebraska gives two of its five electoral votes to the statewide winner, with the remaining three going to the popular vote winner in each of its three congressional districts.
The 1994 Elections: The Overview; Gop Wins Control Of Senate And Makes Big Gains In House; Pataki Denies Cuomo 4th Term
The Republican Party seized control of the Senate and moved within a few seats of capturing the House yesterday, winning eight Democratic seats in the Senate and at least 38 in the House. The gains were the Republicans’ strongest in decades and put them in position to thwart President Clinton and his legislative proposals for the next two years.
The Republican tide also extended to the races for governor in several important states that will be critical to Mr. Clinton’s hopes for re-election in 1996, including New York, Pennsylvania, Texas and California.
One after another, once unassailable Democrats like Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, Gov. Ann W. Richards of Texas, Representative Dan Rostenkowski of Chicago and Senators James Sasser of Tennessee and Harris Wofford of Pennsylvania fell to little-known Republican challengers.
But Republicans, who have held the Senate in only 6 of the last 40 years, were particularly overjoyed that they had picked up Democratic Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Michigan and Maine. Mr. Clinton had criss-crossed most of those states in a frenetic eight-day campaign swing, but it did no good. The Republicans ended the night with at least a 52-to-48 majority in the Senate.
In metropolitan area races, two Democratic Senators, Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York and Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut coasted to victory.
In the poll, 2,600 voters were questioned at selected precincts in every state.
Lindsey Graham Wins Reelection In South Carolina Senate Race Cbs News Projects
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won reelection, CBS News projects, after a contentious race. Although Democratic candidate Jaime Harrison outraised Graham by a significant amount, it was not enough to flip a Senate seat in the deep-red state.
Graham led the high-profile confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Harrison hit him for his reversal on confirming a Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year.
Meanwhile, Republican Roger Marshall has also won the Senate race in Kansas, defeating Democrat Barbara Bollier.
New Hampshire Hasnt Been Called Yet But That Wont Change The Balance Of Power In The Senate
- New Hampshire, where Sen. Kelly Ayotte has a narrow margin over Gov. Maggie Hassan . Votes have only been counted from 94 percent of precincts, so there is a possibility that Hassan could still win, but with Ayotte wining 48.1 percent of the vote compared to Hassans 47.8 percent, it seems as if Ayotte will hold onto her seat.
Midterm Elections: What Mattered Most To Voters
In almost every midterm since the Civil War, Americans have opted to put a check on the president by handing more power to the opposition party in Congress.
The booming economy appears to be cushioning the blow for the GOP this year, but Trump has instead tended to focus on darker themes, for instance highlighting a caravan of migrants moving towards the U.S. southern border as much as he has the low unemployment rate.
With the Democrats winning the House, they plan to wield Congress vast oversight authority against the White House and could even vote to impeach the president, though removing him from office seems out of the question, since that requires a supermajority in the Senate.
Trump Sticks To Trump Country As He Pushes For Gop Wins In The Midterms
Trump personally played a significant role in tight Senate contests in the closing weeks of the election cycle. He traveled to Indiana, Florida, Montana, Nevada, Missouri and Mississippi and in some cases landed in dramatic fashion aboard Air Force One to crowds of supporters enthusiastically cheering his red-meat speeches focused mostly on immigration and warnings about what Democratic control meant for his agenda.
His visits included overt reminders to his base supporters that they weren’t just voting for any Republican on the ballot they were voting for senators promising to back his priorities.
“They want to raise your taxes, the Democrats do, restore crippling regulations, shut down your new steel mills, take away your health care, and put illegal aliens before American citizens,” Trump said in a closing rally in Indiana on Monday. “If you want more caravans, if you want more crime, vote Democrat tomorrow.”
A year of big money and big controversy
Democrats benefited from a flood of donations to official party organizations and outside groups working on their side. Democratic candidates and their outside supporters are expected to spend more than $2.5 billion on this year’s election, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Republican candidates and their backers are on track to spend $2.2 billion.
Fundraising in 2018 far outpaced what is normal for a miderm election.
NPR’s Deirdre Walsh contributed to this report
Control Of The Senate Could Be Decided By Georgia Races
There are two races up in Georgia this election, a regular Senate race and special election. The rules in Georgia for both the regular Senate election and the Senate special election require a candidate to win a majority, and if none of the candidates clear the 50% threshold, the race goes to a runoff in January.
Recent polling in the race between incumbent GOP Senator David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has been tight, and the presence of a libertarian candidate on the ballot could prevent either Perdue or Ossoff from clearing the majority. In the special election, 21 candidates have qualified to be on the ballot, including Democrat Raphael Warnock, who has led in recent polls. GOP candidates Senator Kelly Loeffer, who was appointed to the seat last year, and Congressman Doug Collins are also on the ballot. If no candidate clears the majority, that race will also go to a runoff in January.
Newly Uncovered Fraud In Az Could Flip The Senate Back To Republicans
The Democrats have much more to worry about in Arizona other than the presidential race. The fate of the Senate also rests in the hands of the Maricopa County election. Mark Kelly also won Maricopa County, a reliable red county by 80,000 votes.
That means that if the results show that McSally actually won in Maricopa County, she actually won the Senate election as well.
That would mean that the Republicans would control Senate 51-49. It would also create an unusual decision that would have to be made. All of the votes that required Kamala Harris to cast the tie-breaking vote would now be invalid. However, an activist judge might disagree, setting up a constitutional crisis.
It may take a long time to sort out.