Polling Data Shows Republican Party Affiliation Is Down As Independents Leaning Toward The Democratic Party Surge
Democrats have a nine-percentage-point affiliation advantage over Republicans at the moment.
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The GOP is losing its grip, according to the latest Gallup poll.
The number of Americans identifying as Republicans or as independents who lean toward the GOP dropped to 40% in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the number of Democrats or independents leaning toward the Democratic party hitting 49%. And that nine-percentage-point lead is the greatest Democratic advantage that Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012, when former President Barack Obama was re-elected.
Gallup routinely measures U.S. adults’ party identification and the political leanings of independents. The latest poll surveyed a random sample of 3,960 U.S. adults by phone between January and March of 2021. And while Democratic Party affiliation actually dropped by one point from the fourth quarter of 2020, to 30% — where it has hovered for most of the past eight years — the number of Americans identifying as independent rose to 44% from 38% last quarter. And this growing number of independents came at the expense of the Republican party, as 19% of independents said they lean Democrat, compared with 15% leaning Republican. Most of the remaining 11% of independents didn’t swing either way.
And several events have happened during those three months that could position the Democratic Party more favorably in voters’ eyes, the Gallup report noted.
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Opinion:
A Different America: How Republicans Hold Near Total Control In 23 Us States
In those states, Republicans hold the governorship and the legislature, giving them the power to take aim at abortion access, trans rights, voting and gun safety
Last modified on Tue 15 Jun 2021 14.38 BST
Democrats across the US cheered last month, as Texas legislators staged a walkout from the statehouse to block the passage of a Republican bill that would enact a number of restrictions on voting access.
But the victory seemed short-lived, as the state’s Republican governor, Greg Abbott, quickly announced he planned to call a special session to get the legislation passed.
The walkout and the probably only temporary relief it provides for Democrats demonstrated the immense legislative power that Republicans have in dozens of states across the country and the ability that gives them to pass a hard-right agenda on a vast range of issues from abortion to the ability to vote.
In 23 US states, Republicans hold the governorship and the legislature, giving the party near total control to advance its policies. This year, Republicans have used that power to aggressively push their conservative social agenda – taking aim at abortion access, transgender rights and gun safety, as well as voting laws.
During the Texas legislative session, which concluded late last month, Republicans approved bills to allow permitless carry of firearms, ban abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy and increase criminal penalties for protesters who block intersections.
For The First Time There Are Fewer Registered Republicans Than Independents
For the first time in history, there are more registered independents in the United States than there are registered Republicans.
It may not be for the reason you think, though.
New data from Ballot Access News, which tracks registrations in the 31 states that require voters to register by party, shows that independents account for 29.09 percent of voters in them, compared with 28.87 percent for Republicans. As recently as 2004, Republicans outpaced independents by nearly 10 percentage points.
There are still way more registered Democrats; 39.66 percent of voters are registered with that party.
This marks the first time since party registration began in the early 1900s that the number of registered independents in the United States has surpassed members of either major political party, according to Ballot Access News.
Here’s the data going back to 2004:
But before anybody chalks this up as having to do with the current occupant of the White House, it’s worth parsing the trends.
While independents have surpassed Republicans, there actually hasn’t been a huge drop in GOP party registration since President Trump took office. Since October 2016, GOP registration has dropped by half a percentage point. The number of registered Democrats declined by nearly a full point over the same span. Independents have benefited from both drops.
Republican Lawmakers Push To Cast Vaccine Refusal As A Civil Rights Issue
Bills in several statehouses seek to block employers from demanding Covid-19 immunization, even though few do
Last modified on Fri 16 Jul 2021 19.48 BST
State Republican lawmakers across the United States are pushing forward bills that prohibit vaccine mandates in an attempt to give the refusal to have a Covid-19 vaccine the same sort of legal protections as those often surrounding issues of gender, religion and race.
Many Republican states are introducing bills that outlaw vaccine mandates within state offices, schools and workplaces, even though vaccine mandates are not commonplace among employers. They also come as the vaccine rollout in the US has slowed markedly, even though the more contagious Delta variant is spreading rapidly, especially among unvaccinated people.
Covid-19 vaccines are life-saving medications whose side effects are generally mild. Independent expert panels have repeatedly found the benefits of vaccination far outweigh the risk of potential Covid-19 infection. More than 185 million Americans have received at least one vaccine dose.
“It’s sort of a solution looking for a problem,” said Lowell Pearson, a managing partner at Husch Blackwell, a firm that has been tracking the bills. “We’re not seeing really any broad sense that employers are requiring vaccines in office settings, in manufacturing settings and other places like that.”
Marjorie Taylor Greene: Us House Votes To Strip Republican Of Key Posts
The US House of Representatives has voted to expel a Republican congresswoman from two committees over incendiary remarks she made before being elected last November.
Marjorie Taylor Greene had promoted baseless QAnon conspiracy theories and endorsed violence against Democrats.
Before the vote, she said she regretted her views, which included claims that school shootings and 9/11 were staged.
Eleven Republicans joined the Democrats to pass the motion by 230-199.
It means the representative – who was elected in November, representing a district in the southern state of Georgia – cannot take up her place on the education and budget committees.
This would limit her ability to shape policy as most legislation goes through a committee before reaching the House floor. Committee positions can determine the influence of individual lawmakers in their party.
It is highly unusual for one party to intervene in another party’s House committee assignments.
On Friday, Mrs Greene said that she woke up “laughing” at the situation.
“I woke up early this morning literally laughing thinking about what a bunch of morons the Democrats are for giving some one like me free time,” she tweeted, referencing the 11 Republicans who also voted to remove her.
At a news conference in Washington hours later, Mrs Greene said that Democrats had “stripped my district of their voice” by removing her from the committees.
Why Do I Put My Life On The Line Pandemic Trauma Haunts Health Workers
Many health workers feel disillusioned and underappreciated.
Republican state Sen. Ralph Alvarado of Kentucky, a 50-year-old physician, said instead of shaming people who are reluctant to get vaccinated, it’s crucial to understand their concerns. He said he spends a lot of time dispelling myths about vaccines among his constituents, patients and community.
“As a doctor, I remind my colleagues that when we prescribe or recommend a course of action for somebody, no matter what the disease or prevention is, if people become resistant or hesitant, our medical code of ethics doesn’t say to humiliate,” he said. “You reassure and educate them.”
He added that a lot of people are fearful when politics is involved, because “people pick sides instead of picking the message.”
Public health experts also have stressed the need to focus outreach efforts on science. An analysis published in Health Affairs, a peer-reviewed health journal, stated that when “science and values, not politics, inform public health,” it “unlocks potential for higher vaccine coverage.”
The de Beaumont Foundation, a Maryland-based charitable foundation focused on health solutions, held a two-hour session with a focus group in March that found messaging helps to build trust. The group consisted of almost 20 people who identified as conservative Republicans who supported Trump.
List Of Current Mayors Of The Top 100 Cities In The United States
| Municipal partisanship in 2021 |
This page lists the current mayors of the 100 largest U.S. cities by population.
As of 2013, an estimated 62,186,079 citizens lived in these cities, accounting for 19.67 percent of the nation’s total population.
In most of the nation’s largest cities, mayoral elections are officially nonpartisan, though many officeholders and candidates are affiliated with political parties. Ballotpedia used one or more of the following sources to identify each officeholder’s partisan affiliation: direct communication from the officeholder, current or previous candidacy for partisan office, or identification of partisan affiliation by multiple media outlets. As of August 2021, the partisan breakdown of the mayors of the 100 largest U.S. cities was 63 Democrats, 26 Republicans, four independents, and six nonpartisans. The affiliation of one mayor was unknown.
Of these cities, there are 47 strong mayor governments, 46 council-manager governments, six hybrid governments, and one city commission.
At the start of 2021…
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Census Data May Blunt Expected Republican Election Gains In 2022
WASHINGTON – The release of detailed local data from the U.S. census this week demonstrated that the country is diversifying and urbanizing more quickly than many had believed, and those results have real consequences for what Congress will look like throughout the coming decade.
In general, the news was good for the Democratic Party. It suggests that some of the anticipated losses in the 2022 elections may be mitigated slightly by population growth in large metropolitan areas, which tend to vote for Democrats, and a decline in rural populations, which tend to favor the Republican Party.
In his analysis for The Cook Political Report, David Wasserman wrote that “although Republicans hold more sway in redistricting, Democrats have to be pretty happy with today’s results.”
Drawing new congressional maps
The decennial count of the American people is used for many purposes, but one of the most visible is the apportionment of seats in the House of Representatives. While every state’s allotment of senators is fixed at two, the size of their respective House delegations varies with population.
Republicans favored to take House
GOP advantage blunted
Inevitable lawsuits
Wasserman also pointed out that the data may also make it more difficult for Republicans to defend especially aggressive redistricting in court.
Map: Republicans To Have Full Control Of 23 States Democrats 15
In 2021, Republicans will have full control of the legislative and executive branch in 23 states. Democrats will have full control of the legislative and executive branch in 15 states.
Population of the 24 fully R-controlled states: 134,035,267Population of the 15 fully D-controlled states: 120,326,393
Republicans have full control of the legislative branch in 30 states. Democrats have full control of the legislative branch in 18 states.
Population of the 30 fully R-controlled legislature states: 185,164,412Population of the 18 fully D-controlled legislature states: 133,888,565
This week, Andrew Cuomo’s star went down in flames. While the smoke clears, let’s take a moment to sit back and reminisce about the governor’s long history with ethical and legal violations.
Cuomo’s controversies regarding sexual harassment and nursing homes deaths were far from his first abuses of power. In fact, his administration has a long history of it, ranging from interfering with ethics commissions, to financial corruption.
In July 2013, Cuomo formed the Moreland Commission to investigate corruption in New York’s government. At first it was a success, giving Cuomo good PR. Yet as it went on there were rumors that, contrary to his claim that “Anything they want to look at they can look at,” Cuomo was interfering with the Commission’s investigations. There was friction within the Commission, itself with two factions forming: “’Team Independence’ and ‘Team We-Have-a-Boss’.”
Are There More Democrats Than Republicans In The United States
I have been thinking about the Democratic Party and whether or not its members are more numerous than the opposing faction.
Evidence to suggest this is the case:
This suggests that the partisan lean the American electorate is about D+4. I believe that it might be closer to D+5 now for various reasons and the fact that 2012 was the mean result. This can get a little bit fuzzy because of independents.
If we look at opinion polling, Gallup has collated party affiliation polls back to 2004. The most recent poll at the time of writing gives a D+11 advantage. Looking just at the net Republican/Democrat advantage, ignoring Independents, we can create the graph below – with positive percentages representing a Democrat lead, and negative percentages representing a Republican lead.
To give a theoretical perspective on this:
Democrats Think Many Republicans Sincere And Point To Policy
Democrats, however, were somewhat more generous in their answers. More than four in ten Democratic voters felt that most Republican voters had the country’s best interests at heart . And many tried their best to answer from the other’s perspective. A 45-year-old male voter from Ohio imagined that as a Republican, he was motivated by Republicans’ “harsh stance on immigration; standing up for the 2nd Amendment; promised tax cuts.” A 30-year-old woman from Colorado felt that Republican votes reflected the desires to “stop abortion… stop gay marriage from ruining our country… and give us our coal jobs back.”
Other Democrats felt that their opponents were mostly motivated by the GOP’s “opposition to Obamacare,” “lower taxes” and to support a party that “reduced unemployment.”
Scholarly Views On The Genetics And Psychology Of Politics
In Predisposed: Liberals, Conservatives, and the Biology of Political Differences three political scientists provide psychological and biological explanation of how a person’s genetic makeup predisposes them to be liberal or conservative. They conclude:
If you accept that your political views are imbued less with majestic rationality than primal biology, that they bubble up from within rather than get passed down from on high, and if you recognize that predispositions affect how people perceive, process, and experience the world, you will have learned something valuable….
Democrats Return The Favor: Republicans Uninformed Or Self
The 429 Democratic voters in our sample returned the favor and raised many of the same themes. Democrats inferred that Republicans must be “VERY ill-informed,” or that “Fox news told me to vote for Republicans.” Or that Republicans are “uneducated and misguided people guided by what the media is feeding them.”
Many also attributed votes to individual self-interest – whereas GOP voters feel Democrats want “free stuff,” many Democrats believe Republicans think that “I got mine and don’t want the libs to take it away,” or that “some day I will be rich and then I can get the benefits that rich people get now.”
Many used the question to express their anger and outrage at the other side. Rather than really try to take the position of their opponents, they said things like, “I like a dictatorial system of Government, I’m a racist, I hate non-whites.”
Vaccination Outreach Shifts As Demand Drops In Some States
Some states are hitting a hesitancy wall.
Not all Republican men are so staunchly resistant.
At 70 years old, longtime Georgia state Rep. Tommy Benton said it would be foolish for him and others in his age group to turn down a vaccine. Benton, who doesn’t have underlying health conditions, didn’t want to catch COVID-19 or transmit it to his grandkids or peers, he said.
“It doesn’t matter how healthy you are. At…65 or above, you might end up getting sick with this disease and it’ll be more than your 65-or-above system can handle,” Benton said.
Wyoming state Rep. Daniel Zwonitzer, 41, who lives in the most vaccine-hesitant state in the country, said he took a vaccine for the safety of others, particularly for the older staff, legislators and volunteers in the Wyoming legislature. While Zwonitzer believes in freedom and liberty, he said, he also believes in public health. Zwonitzer does not have any preexisting health conditions, he noted.
He said a few of his Republican colleagues think COVID-19 and vaccines against it are a hoax, but he disagreed, pointing out that one of his fellow Republicans died from the disease.
Some Republican men and health officials cited the politicization of mask-wearing and shutdowns under former President Donald Trump’s administration, and its downplaying of the seriousness of the pandemic, as causes for the vaccine hesitancy among conservatives.
Taking The Perspective Of Others Proved To Be Really Hard
The divide in the United States is wide, and one indication of that is how difficult our question proved for many thoughtful citizens. A 77-year-old Republican woman from Pennsylvania was typical of the voters who struggled with this question, telling us, “This is really hard for me to even try to think like a devilcrat!, I am sorry but I in all honesty cannot answer this question. I cannot even wrap my mind around any reason they would be good for this country.”
Similarly, a 53-year-old Republican from Virginia said, “I honestly cannot even pretend to be a Democrat and try to come up with anything positive at all, but, I guess they would vote Democrat because they are illegal immigrants and they are promised many benefits to voting for that party. Also, just to follow what others are doing. And third would be just because they hate Trump so much.” The picture she paints of the typical Democratic voter being an immigrant, who goes along with their party or simply hates Trump will seem like a strange caricature to most Democratic voters. But her answer seems to lack the animus of many.
Democrats struggled just as much as Republicans. A 33-year-old woman from California told said, “i really am going to have a hard time doing this” but then offered that Republicans “are morally right as in values, … going to protect us from terrorest and immigrants, … going to create jobs.”
The Republican Party General Policy And Political Values
The Republican Party is often referred to as the GOP. This abbreviation stands for Grand Old Party. Its logo is an elephant. The Republican Party is known to support right-leaning ideologies of conservatism, social conservatism, and economic libertarianism, among other -isms. Thus, Republicans broadly advocate for traditional values, a low degree of government interference, and large support of the private sector.
One main standpoint of the Republican Party platform is a strong focus on the family and individual freedom. Generally, the Republican Party therefore often tends to promote states’ and local rights. That means that they often wish for federal regulations to play a lesser role in policymaking. Furthermore, the GOP has a pro-business-oriented platform. Thus, the party advocates for businesses to exist in a free market instead of being impacted by tight government regulations.
The Democratic Party General Policy And Political Values
The Democratic Party generally represents left-leaning, liberal and progressive ideological values, thus advocating for a strong government to regulate business and support for the citizens of the United States. Thus, one of the key values emphasized by Democrats is social responsibility. Overall, Democrats believe that a prominent and powerful government can ensure welfare and equality for all. Much like the Republican Party, political opinions within the Democratic Party stretch across a wide spectrum, as both parties are, to a large degree, decentralized. However, from a general point of view, Democrats tend to support heavy taxation of high-income households. In comparison to Denmark, where taxes are generally high, the Democratic taxation policy may not seem excessive, but on a U.S. taxation scale these tax percentages are in the heavy end.
Theres Never Been A Better Time For Civic Engagement
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Govtrackus Is Taking A New Focus On Civic Education
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We’re looking for feedback from educators about how GovTrack can be used and improved for your classroom. If you teach United States government and would like to speak with us about bringing legislative data into your classroom, please reach out!
Has Marjorie Taylor Greene Really Left Qanon Behind
Analysis by Alistair Coleman, BBC Monitoring
Marjorie Taylor Greene has said that she stopped believing in the QAnon conspiracy in 2018
However, she continued to allude to ideas pushed by QAnon believers.
In a 2019 video she claimed that then-Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg was being played by a body double.
The idea stemmed from the macabre conspiracy theory that Ginsburg’s death – which actually did occur, later, in September 2020 – was somehow being covered up.
Odd as it sounds, in feverish QAnon groups where the rumour was born, whispers about imposters and political “body doubles” are fairly common.
In December 2020, she insisted in a now-deleted social media post that the QAnon community was “exposing truth”.
And somewhat prophetically, in a February 2019 video post she called for people to flood the US Capitol building to demonstrate against Democrats. The month before, she “liked” a post saying that it would be quicker to remove House Speaker Nancy Pelosi “with a bullet to the head”.
She refused to address these issues when questioned Friday. Mrs Greene may have left overt support for QAnon behind, but it appears she’s still paying attention to what’s being said in conspiracy-minded groups.
The Philosophy Behind Democratic Economic Policy
Democrats gear their economic policies to benefit low-income and middle-income families. They argue that reducing income inequality is the best way to foster economic growth. Low-income families are more likely to spend any extra money on necessities instead of saving or investing it. That directly increases demand and spurs economic growth. Democrats also support a Keynesian economic theory, which says that the government should spend its way out of a recession.
One dollar spent on increased food stamp benefits generates $1.73 in economic output.??
President Franklin D. Roosevelt first outlined the Economic Bill of Rights in his 1944 State of the Union address. It included taxes on war profiteering and price controls on food costs. President Harry Truman’s 1949 Fair Deal proposed an increase in the minimum wage, civil rights legislation, and national health care. President Barack Obama expanded Medicaid with the 2010 Affordable Care Act.
The Philosophy Behind Republican Economic Policy
Republicans advocate supply-side economics that primarily benefits businesses and investors. This theory states that tax cuts on businesses allow them to hire more workers, in turn increasing demand and growth. In theory, the increased revenue from a stronger economy offsets the initial revenue loss over time.
Republicans advocate the right to pursue prosperity without government interference. They argue this is achieved by self-discipline, enterprise, saving, and investing.
Republicans’ business-friendly approach leads most people to believe that they are better for the economy. A closer look reveals that Democrats are, in many respects, actually better.
% Of Republicans View Trump As True Us President
A combination picture shows U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaking during the first 2020 presidential campaign debate, held on the campus of the Cleveland Clinic at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., September 29, 2020. Picture taken September 29, 2020. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
WASHINGTON, May 24 – A majority of Republicans still believe Donald Trump won the 2020 U.S. presidential election and blame his loss to Joe Biden on illegal voting, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.
The May 17-19 national poll found that 53% of Republicans believe Trump, their party’s nominee, is the “true president” now, compared to 3% of Democrats and 25% of all Americans.
About one-quarter of adults believe the Nov. 3 election was tainted by illegal voting, including 56% of Republicans, according to the poll. The figures were roughly the same in a poll that ran from Nov. 13-17 which found that 28% of all Americans and 59% of Republicans felt that way.
A Democrat, Biden won by more than seven million votes. Dozens of courts rejected Trump’s challenges to the results, but Trump and his supporters have persisted in pushing baseless conspiracy theories on conservative news outlets.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 61% of Republicans believe the election was “stolen” from Trump. Only about 29% of Republicans believe he should share some of the blame for his supporters’ Jan. 6 deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol.
Voter Registration And State Political Control
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The state Democratic or Republican Party controls the governorship, the state legislative houses, and U.S. Senate representation. Nebraska’s legislature is unicameral, i.e., it has only one legislative house and is officially non-partisan, though party affiliation still has an unofficial influence on the legislative process.
The simplest measure of party strength in a state voting population is the affiliation totals from voter registration for the 30 states and the District of Columbia as of 2019 that allow registered voters to indicate a party preference when registering to vote. 20 states do not include party preference with voter registration: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. The party affiliations in the party control table are obtained from state party registration figures where indicated. Only Wyoming has a majority of registered voters identifying themselves as Republicans; two states have a majority of registered voters identifying themselves as Democrats: Maryland and Kentucky .
The Party Thats Actually Best For The Economy
Many analyses look at which party is best for the economy. A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that Democratic presidents since World War II have performed much better than Republicans. On average, Democratic presidents grew the economy 4.4% each year versus 2.5% for Republicans.
A study by Princeton University economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson found that the economy performs better when the president is a Democrat. They report that “by many measures, the performance gap is startlingly large.” Between Truman and Obama, growth was 1.8% higher under Democrats than Republicans.
A Hudson Institute study found that the six years with the best growth were evenly split between Republican and Democrat presidents.
Most of these evaluations measure growth during the president’s term in office. But no president has control over the growth added during his first year. The budget for that fiscal year was already set by the previous president, so you should compare the gross domestic product at the end of the president’s last budget to the end of his predecessor’s last budget.
For Obama, that would be the fiscal year from October 1, 2009, to September 30, 2018. That’s FY 2010 through FY 2017. During that time, GDP increased from $15.6 trillion to $17.7 trillion, or by 14%. That’s 1.7% a year.
The chart below ranks the presidents since 1929 on the average annual increase in GDP.
| President |
|---|
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1.4% |
A president would have better growth if he had no recession.
Contrast With Color Usage In Other Countries
The recent association of colors in American politics lies contrary to the long-standing conventions of political color in most other countries whereby red symbols ” rel=”nofollow”>red flag or red star) are associated with left-wing politics. Indeed, as late as the 1990s, Democrats were often represented by red and Republicans by blue. According to The Washington Post, journalist Tim Russert coined these terms during his televised coverage of the 2000 presidential election. The 2000 election was not the first during which the news media used colored maps to depict voter preferences in the various states, but it was the first time a standard color scheme took hold. In previous elections, the color assignments or even the actual colors used were often different.
