Key Findings From The Times/siena College Poll
The first poll of the midterm cycle.The New York Times has released its first national survey of the 2022 midterm cycle. Heres what to know:
Bidens struggles to win approval.President Biden is facing an alarming level of doubt from inside his own party, with 64 percent of Democratic voters saying they would prefer a new standard-bearer in 2024. Voters nationwide, meanwhile, gave Mr. Biden a meager 33 percent job-approval rating, and only 13 percent said the nation was on the right track.
Some in G.O.P. are ready to leave Trump behind.As the former president weighs another White House bid, nearly half of Republican primary voters would prefer someone other than Mr. Trump for president in 2024, with a significant number vowing to abandon him if he wins the nomination.
A tight race for Congress.Despite Mr. Bidens low approval ratings, Democrats are roughly tied with Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Among registered voters, 41 percent said they preferred Democrats to control Congress compared with 40 percent who preferred Republicans.
The class divide widens.Voters who said abortion, guns or threats to democracy were the biggest problem facing the country backed Democrats by a wide margin, as Republicans make new inroads among nonwhite and working-class voters who remain more concerned about the economy.
Still, many Republicans who favor someone else in a primary would nonetheless rally behind Mr. Trump if he won the nomination.
The Share Of Republicans Who Say Donald Trump Should Continue To Be A Major National Figure Has Grown By 10 Percentage Points From 57% To 67% According To A New Pew Research Center Analysis
Most Republicans and right-leaning independents say they want former President Donald Trump to continue to be a major political figure for many years to come, including 44% who say they would like him to run for president in 2024, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis.
The share of Republicans who say Trump should continue to be a GOP leader has grown by 10 percentage points from 57% to 67% since a January survey conducted in the waning days of his administration and in the immediate wake of the , according to the survey, conducted between September 13-19.
Among Republicans, the survey noted that views on whether Trump should continue to lead them or run for office in the next presidential election vary by age, education and ideology.
For example, 72% of Republicans with some college experience say Trump should be a major figure, with half saying he should run for president in the next presidential election. In comparison, a narrower majority of Republicans with a college degree or more say Trump should remain a prominent figure, including just 28% who say he should run for office in 2024.
The survey was conducted among 10,371 US adults who are members of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel.
Trump Losing Gop Support For 2024 Run As Jan 6 Hearings Unfold: Poll
Former President Donald Trump appears to be losing support among Republican voters for a 2024 White House bid as the public hearings of the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack against the U.S. Capitol have unfolded, new polling suggests.
Trump has not officially confirmed that he plans to seek another presidential term but has repeatedly hinted at the idea as a strong possibility. While polls have generally shown the former president as the clear frontrunner for the Republican Party’s nomination, his viability might be taking a hit as the January 6 hearings feature what many view as damning testimony by his own former administration officials and other Republicans.
Polling data released on Thursday shows that Trump is losing support among GOP voters for a 2024 presidential run. Survey data collected from July 20 to 21 showed that about one-third of Republicans “strongly” or “somewhat” agreed with the statement that Trump “should NOT run for president again in 2024.” That was an increase from about one-quarter who said the same just six weeks ago.
Additionally, in the previous early-June poll, 51 percent of Republicans “strongly” disagreed with the statement that Trump shouldn’t seek another term. That level of strong disapproval with the statement dipped 10 points to 41 percent in the latest survey.
She said that in the end, “it’s up to our voters to decide.”
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Doj Indicates Trumps Demand For Special Master May Be Too Late
In the weeks since the search of Mar-a-Lago, the former president has been off the airwaves, even eschewing appearances on friendly shows. Instead, hes blasted out self-defenses on his social media site Truth Social and through his Save America super PAC.
The more he speaks for himself, however, the more political headaches he creates for Republicans. On Monday, he bluntly proposed that he be crowned the rightful winner of a 2020 election fairly won by Biden, or that a determination be made that the ballot was irreparably compromised. He suggested a do-over of the election in the case of the latter.
Trump is expected to address the FBI search at his first public appearance for a Saturday Save America rally in support of endorsed candidates in Scranton, Pa. this coming weekend.
I think people would expect him to go on Fox, go on radio shows, go on primetime shows, Newsmax, OAN, one on one interviews, and do a media blitz, said one person close to the Trump operation. Hes not doing media, but the surrogates are out there, the lawyers are out there, which is smart from a legal standpoint.
When news first broke that the FBI had gone into Trumps Mar-a-Lago home, many Republicans called it a politically motivated witch hunt. But on Capitol Hill, at least, Trumps backers are starting to climb down from their initial anti-FBI clamor and offering a hodgepodge of potential explanations as more details of the investigation emerge.
Sam Stein contributed to this report.
Taking The Perspective Of Others Proved To Be Really Hard
The divide in the United States is wide, and one indication of that is how difficult our question proved for many thoughtful citizens. A 77-year-old Republican woman from Pennsylvania was typical of the voters who struggled with this question, telling us, This is really hard for me to even try to think like a devilcrat!, I am sorry but I in all honesty cannot answer this question. I cannot even wrap my mind around any reason they would be good for this country.
Similarly, a 53-year-old Republican from Virginia said, I honestly cannot even pretend to be a Democrat and try to come up with anything positive at all, but, I guess they would vote Democrat because they are illegal immigrants and they are promised many benefits to voting for that party. Also, just to follow what others are doing. And third would be just because they hate Trump so much. The picture she paints of the typical Democratic voter being an immigrant, who goes along with their party or simply hates Trump will seem like a strange caricature to most Democratic voters. But her answer seems to lack the animus of many.
Democrats struggled just as much as Republicans. A 33-year-old woman from California told said, i really am going to have a hard time doing this but then offered that Republicans are morally right as in values, going to protect us from terrorest and immigrants, going to create jobs.
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Biden To Continue Push Against Maga Republicans In Pennsylvania Visit
WASHINGTON Just days after hitting Donald Trump-supporting Republican office holders for their semi-fascism, President Joe Biden plans to continue his more aggressive recent tone Tuesday by turning the GOPs defunding the police attacks back against them.
The president will make clear that congressional Republicans extreme MAGA agenda is a threat to the rule of law, a senior White House official said on condition of anonymity. He will say that you cant propose defunding the FBI or defend the mob that stormed the Capitol and attacked and assaulted police officers on January 6 and be pro-police.
MAGA is the acronym for Make America Great Again, a slogan adopted by the former president during his 2016 run.
On Thursday, at a gathering of Democratic donors, Biden said that Trumps supporters have gone well beyond traditional conservatism. Its not just Trump, he said. Its the entire philosophy that underpins the Im going to say something: Its like semi-fascism.
Republicans have for years attacked Democrats, including Biden, as insufficiently supportive of law enforcement, and especially so after some in the party adopted the defund the police slogan during the 2020 nationwide protests following the murder of a Black man by white police officers in Minneapolis.
Tuesdays remarks, to be delivered in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, will focus on assault weapons and his continued push to ban them.
Why Continue To Support Trump
To the editor:
So Rep. Stefanik is jumping on the GOP fake outrage train. Investigate the FBI for taking our documents back to the National Archives? Donald Trump took documents that dont belong to him. He jerked the U.S. government lawyers around for one to one-and-a-half years. He had shredded some that had previously been turned back. They had to be taped back together. He cannot be trusted with classified documents or even any classified information. Remember the scene with Trump and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in the Oval Office? Laughing. It made my blood run cold. He shared classified military information with them. Now see how Russian TV is playing outrage about the FBI search. They know hes corrupt and can be used.
Everyone else knows what a crook and liar he is. Why are they still supporting this guy? He wasnt/isnt morally or intellectually fit for the presidency. Why Elise? Why support someone who is corrupt on a level this country has never seen before, as Charles Blow of the New York Times said?
Why on earth would anyone support this guy? Hes left them all to rot. Money he raised for defense went into his pocket. An astounding $250 million. The ultimate conman.
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Democrats Think Many Republicans Sincere And Point To Policy
Democrats, however, were somewhat more generous in their answers. More than four in ten Democratic voters felt that most Republican voters had the countrys best interests at heart . And many tried their best to answer from the others perspective. A 45-year-old male voter from Ohio imagined that as a Republican, he was motivated by Republicans harsh stance on immigration standing up for the 2nd Amendment promised tax cuts. A 30-year-old woman from Colorado felt that Republican votes reflected the desires to stop abortion stop gay marriage from ruining our country and give us our coal jobs back.
Other Democrats felt that their opponents were mostly motivated by the GOPs opposition to Obamacare, lower taxes and to support a party that reduced unemployment.
Republicans Signal Worries About Trump And The Midterms
Few Republicans appeared on the major Sunday talk shows to defend the former president. Those who did indicated that they would rather be talking about almost anything else.
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This article is part of ourMidterms 2022 Daily Briefing
WASHINGTON Headed into 2022, Republicans were confident that a red wave would sweep them into control of Congress based on the conventional political wisdom that the midterm elections would produce a backlash against President Biden, who has struggled with low approval ratings.
But now some are signaling concern that the referendum they anticipated on Mr. Biden and the high inflation and gas prices that have bedeviled his administration is being complicated by all-encompassing attention on the legal exposure of a different president: his predecessor, Donald J. Trump.
Those worries were on display on Sunday morning as few Republicans appeared on the major Washington-focused news shows to defend Mr. Trump two days after a redacted version of the affidavit used to justify the F.B.I. search of his Mar-a-Lago estate revealed that he had retained highly classified material related to the use of clandestine human sources in intelligence gathering. And those who did appear indicated that they would rather be talking about almost anything else.
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The Gops Trumpian Soul
If you read studies of the American conservative movement, Trumps continued strength should be no surprise. The political strength of the movement never came from its policy ideas. Many of its positions, like tax cuts for the rich and stringent abortion restrictions, have ultimately proven to be extremely unpopular.
Instead, its strength has been rooted in grievance: the bitterness of those who believe that modern America is changing too fast, beyond recognition, turning traditional citizens into aliens in their own country.
A charitable observer might call this sentiment nostalgia for a bygone America. A more critical one might call it the venting of reactionary white male rage against a more egalitarian country. But whatever your assessment, it is this politics of cultural grievance that animates the GOP base.
And nobody is better at channeling it than Donald Trump.
The core of Trumps success has been an ability to tap into the sense of loss Make American Great Again and direct that anger against the traditional GOP elite, Democrats, minorities, and even the US electoral system itself. His celebrity and charisma two traits DeSantis lacks have allowed him to build an unparalleled personal bond with this segment of the electorate.
And it is this connection that, again and again, has proven predictions of Trumps decline to be premature.
Republicans And Their Declared Positions On Donald Trump 2016
|Elected officials’ positions on Donald Trump|
|Federal:Republicans and their declared positions on Donald Trump Republicans supporting Donald Trump Republicans opposing Donald Trump|
|State and local:|
|Republican reactions to 2005 Trump tape|
This page tracked the stances of Republican lawmakers on Trump throughout the 2016 presidential election: Did they support him? Did they oppose him? Or were they somewhere in between? The focus of this page is on Republican members of Congress and Republican governors, but we also have included some information on influential Republicans who have served in Republican presidential administrations.
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The Five Republicans Who Could Challenge Trump In 2024
Former President Trump has hinted repeatedly that hes weighing another bid for the White House in 2024.
And while hes made clear that, if he does so, the nomination should be his for the taking, he could still face some competition. A number of Republicans have begun maneuvering toward presidential campaigns of their own, some more overtly than others.
Of course, theres a political risk that comes with challenging Trump. But that doesnt appear to be deterring some prospective candidates.
Here are the five Republicans who could challenge Trump for the partys 2024 presidential nod.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has brushed off suggestions that he will mount a presidential campaign in 2024, saying that his No. 1 priority is winning a second term in the governors mansion.
But he also hasnt explicitly ruled out the possibility, and unlike several other prospective GOP presidential contenders, he hasnt committed to forgoing a White House bid if Trump launches a comeback campaign.
And with his clout among Republicans on the rise, its possible that, if DeSantis ultimately decides to run in 2024, he may not be deterred by the former president.
Early polling shows him as the heavy favorite for the Republican presidential nomination if Trump doesnt run again. There are even a few recent surveys that show him topping Trump in a hypothetical primary match-up.
The Numbers Are Clear: Its Still Trumps Party
The simplest barometer of whether Trump still dominates the party is the 2024 presidential polls. And by that metric, Trumps grip is pretty hard to question.
The RealClearPolitics poll average has Trump leading the field by an average of 26.2 points. All but one national poll cataloged by FiveThirtyEight in July had Trump beating DeSantis by a similarly large double-digit margin .
Granted, any challenger against an incumbent like Trump probably wouldnt pop up on many voters radars this far ahead of an election. But much of the Trump is slipping coverage skips past all this vital context. For example, the New York Times recently ran a write-up of its poll with Siena College headlined Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds. And indeed, the poll did find that 51 percent of Republicans would vote for someone other than Trump if the primary were held today.
Yet the headline is misleading. The Times poll found that Trump still commanded 49 percent support in the party his next closest rival, DeSantis, garnered a mere 25 percent. In the article, reporter Michael Bender notes that the results show that Mr. Trump maintains his primacy in the party, contradicting the pieces headline.
But weve been here before. Remember when Fox famously went to war against Trump during the 2016 primaries, culminating in a fight between Trump and Megyn Kelly? We know how that played out.
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