For These Republicans 2024 Is Just Around The Corner
Mike Pence. Mike Pompeo. Rick Scott. They share big ambitions, but one name hovers above them all
President Biden told reporters last month that his plan is to run for re-election, despite already being the oldest person to have won a presidential election. So, for now at least, the question of who will lead the Democratic ticket in 2024 has been put to rest.
On the Republican side, however, certainty is in short supply. Its beyond early to be talking about the next presidential election but thats only if you arent planning to run. Some Republican candidates have already made trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, and others are laying plans to go, in what often represents the first step in building out a campaign operation in those early-voting states.
And on Wednesday, in a conspicuously forward-looking move, former Vice President Mike Pence announced the formation of a new political organization, Advancing American Freedom, whose advisory board is stacked high with former Trump administration officials and allies. The news came on the same day Simon & Schuster announced that it would publish Pences autobiography as part of a two-book deal.
The G.O.P. is badly fractured, trying to hold together a dominant base of those loyal to former President Donald Trump and a stubborn minority of pro-decorum, anti-Trump conservatives. Anyone looking to grab the Republican mantle will have to find some way of satisfying both camps and maybe even expanding upon them.
Why Donald Trump Is Republicans Worst Nightmare In 2024
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Earlier this week, amid a rambling attack on the validity of the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump said this: Interesting that today a poll came out indicating Im far in the lead for the Republican Presidential Primary and the General Election in 2024.
this on Trumps future political ambitions from PoliticoTrump is confiding in allies that he intends to run again in 2024 with one contingency: that he still has a good bill of health, according to two sources close to the former president. That means Trump is going to hang over the Republican Party despite its attempts to rebrand during his exile and its blockade of a Trump-centric investigation into Januarys insurrection.new Quinnipiac University national pollhis growing legal and financial entanglementsAs CNN reported on Wednesday nightManhattan prosecutors pursuing a criminal case against former President Donald Trump, his company and its executives have told at least one witness to prepare for grand jury testimony, according to a person familiar with the matter a signal that the lengthy investigation is moving into an advanced stage.
Senator Ben Sasse Of Nebraska
Sasse has, as The Hill points out, taken his fight to Trump’s cyber doorstep. He subtweeted Trump in June after the president attacked MSNBC’s Morning Joe co-host Mika Brzezinski, claiming to have seen her bleeding after undergoing cosmetic surgery.
“Please just stop. This isn’t normal and it’s beneath the dignity of your office,” Sasse tweeted.
Please just stop. This isn’t normal and it’s beneath the dignity of your office.
Then in October, Sasse got a bit more direct with Trump after the president appeared to threaten revoking broadcast licenses for some media outlets.
“Mr. President: Are you recanting of the Oath you took on Jan. 20 to preserve, protect, and defend the 1st Amendment?” Sasse tweeted.
Mr. President:Are you recanting of the Oath you took on Jan. 20 to preserve, protect, and defend the 1st Amendment?
Sasse slipped into Trump’s mentions during the 2016 campaign after the Access Hollywood tape was revealed.
Despite all the tweets, Sasse has been a consistent vote for items on the Trump agenda, voting with him nearly 90 percent of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Consider Candidates Track Record And Party Service In Allocating Debate Slots
For a variety of legal and political reasons, the parties authority over their own debates is constrained.44 Yet debates are very important for introducing voters to the partys candidates. They are an essential aspect of the winnowing process. Selecting invitees is particularly challenging when the candidate field is large, as became evident in the Republican nominating cycle four years ago, when the candidates were so numerous that those who fell below a national poll threshold of 3.5% had to attend an undercard debate instead of the main attraction. One consequence was to favor a reality-television celebrity over veterans like Sen. Lindsey Graham, an expert on foreign affairs who had served South Carolina in the Congress since 1993. That seemed shortsighted and unreasonable at the time, and it seems all the more so in hindsight.
William Henry Harrison Vs Martin Van Buren
Aware that Van Burens problems gave them a good chance for victory, the Whigs rejected the candidacy of Henry Clay, their most prominent leader, because of his support for the unpopular Second Bank of the United States. Instead, stealing a page from the Democratic emphasis on Andrew Jacksons military exploits, they chose William Henry Harrison, a hero of early Indian wars and the War of 1812. The Whig vice-presidential nominee was John Tyler, a onetime Democrat who had broken with Jackson over his veto of the bill rechartering the Second Bank.
Studiously avoiding divisive issues like the Bank and internal improvements, the Whigs depicted Harrison as living in a log cabin and drinking hard cider. They used slogans like Tippecanoe and Tyler too, and Van, Van, Van/Van is a used-up man, to stir voters. Harrison won by a popular vote of 1,275,612 to 1,130,033, and an electoral margin of 234 to 60. But the victory proved to be a hollow one because Harrison died one month after his inauguration. Tyler, his successor, would not accept Whig economic doctrine, and the change in presidential politics had little effect on presidential policy.
Recommended Reading: Percentage Of Americans That Are Republican
Five Gop Contenders Other Than Trump For 2024
Donald TrumpCapitol Police officer who shot Ashli Babbitt says he saved lives on Jan. 6Biden presses Fox’s Doocey about Trump-Taliban dealBiden says deadly attack won’t alter US evacuation mission in AfghanistanMORE casts a long shadow over the Republican Party even as his attempts to cling to power look doomed to failure.
Trump could run again in 2024. If he does, it is hard to see anyone beating him for the Republican nomination.;
Although Trump lost the presidential election by around 7 million votes, he is by far the most popular figure in the nation with GOP voters. He has enormous fundraising prowess he raised about $170 million in the month after the election and he can drive media attention like no one else.
Still, Trump will be 78 by the time of the next election. He also faces financial pressures, with large debts coming due in the next few years. He will continue to command headlines but there are solid reasons why he may not run for the presidency again.
There is speculative chatter that one of Trumps children, perhaps his elder daughter Ivanka, could enter the political arena. But here are some other front-line contenders for the GOP nomination in 2024.
Haley has her detractors. Some in Trumps orbit have always eyed her warily. She had first backed Sen.
Sen. Ted Cruz
Vice President Pence
General Election Candidates On Five Or More Ballots
In addition to Biden, Hawkins, Jorgensen, and Trump, the following candidates have qualified to appear on five or more ballots:
|Roque De La Fuente||;|
|Gloria La Riva||;|
|Jesse Ventura/Cynthia McKinney||;|
|Kyle Kenley Kopitke||;|
|Ricki Sue King/Dayna Chandler||;|
Incumbents are bolded and underlined The results have been certified.
|Total votes: 158,379,904
0 states have not been called.
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Republicans Suddenly Sweating Falling Deep Into House Minority
GOP leaders tout their chances to win back the majority, but falling poll numbers for Trump have some worried they could lose seats in November.
07/29/2020 04:30 AM EDT
A slew of dismal summer polls and a persistent fundraising gap have left some Republicans fretting about a nightmare scenarioin November: Thatthey will fall further into the House minority.
Publicly, House GOP leaders are declaring they can still net the 17 seats needed to flip the chamber. But privately, some party strategists concede its a much grimmer picture, with as many as 20 Republican seats at risk of falling into Democratic hands.
Far from going on offense, the GOP could be forced to retrench in order to limit its losses.Theres a growing fear that President Donald Trumps plummeting popularity in the suburbs could threaten GOP candidates in traditionally favorable districts, and that their partys eagerness to go on offense might leave some underfunded incumbents and open GOP-held seats unprotected.
Internal Democratic surveys in recent weeks have shown tight races in once-solid GOPseats in Indiana, Texas, Michigan, Ohio and Montana that Trump carried handily 2016 data that suggest the battleground is veering in a dangerous direction for the GOP.
And should the environment worsen, other seats in North Carolina, Minnesota, Missouri, Washington state, central Virginia and Michigan could be at risk.
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Vice President Mike Pence
The gambling website 5Dimes updated its odds for the 2020 presidential winner in early December, giving Trump the best chance at 2-1. His closest competition was Pence at 10-1.
Pence has not publicly hinted at the possibility. He vehemently denied a New York Times report that he is positioning himself for a run if Trump doesn’t seek a second term.
“Today’s article in the New York Times is disgraceful and offensive to me, my family and our entire team,” Pence said in a statement. “The allegations in this article are categorically false.”
My statement regarding the absurd article.
Vice President Mike Pence
Still, the odds are looking good for him.
Confidence Interval: Republicans Will Win Back Congress In 2022
natesilver: Good pick.
nrakich: Yeah, Pence has led almost every 2024 poll so far that hasnt included Trump. It goes back to what I said earlier about name recognition a lot of the time, the early front-runner wins and you dont have to overthink it.;;
geoffrey.skelley: Pence was my No. 2 pick for these reasons. Plus, vice presidents who run for the presidency have a pretty good history of winning nominations! Think of Joe Biden, Al Gore, George H.W. Bush, Walter Mondale. As Nathaniel wrote back in 2019, its often been a successful stepping stone to the presidency.
alex: Not bad, Sarah! But to play devils advocate: If Trump doesnt run, but the GOP is still the party of Trump in 2022 or 2024, would someone who didnt overturn the election go far?
sarah: Excellent point, Alex, which brings me to my second pick. Pence isnt the most charismatic, and as has been pointed out, the idea that the GOP moves in a more moderate direction might not be the direction the party is interested in heading in. And while I know some like Geoffrey are convinced that Trump is gonna pull a Cleveland and run again as I said up top, I dont buy it I think Republicans are going to be OK with someone else at the top of the ticket as long as they stick to Trumps agenda. And if Im right, who better than Trumps eldest son, the heir apparent?
Its grievance politics 2.0 that maybe has the potential to win back Republicans in the suburbs.
geoffrey.skelley: Oh man. DJTJ?
The Contenders Who Competed To Run Against Donald Trump
Within weeks of Donald Trump taking the oath of office as the nations 45th president, challengers began lining up to see who would attempt to unseat him in the 2020 presidential election. The controversial president faced early challenges from within his own party, but by and large, the focus remained on the candidates put forth by the opposing Democratic Party.
During one of the most crowded primary seasons in recent memory, several high-profile Democrats, including multiple sitting senators and rising stars in the party, competed for the partys nomination. Ultimately, it was former vice president Joe Biden who won the partys nomination. He selected Senator Kamala Harris, another primary candidate, as his running mate, and the ticket won the 2020 general election with 51.3% of the vote and 306 electoral votes to 46.9% and 232 electoral votes for the incumbent Trump/Pence ticket.
Heres a look at the Democrats, and even members of Trumps own Republican Party, who ran campaigns looking to unseat the controversial commander-in-chief.
Votes By State For Biden And Trump
|Votes by state for Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential eleection|
There were 21 candidates on the ballot each in Vermont and Colorado. The next largest presidential ballots were Arkansas and Louisiana with 13 candidates each. Twelve states had only three candidates on the ballot.
The following map shows the number of presidential candidates on the ballot in each state.
How Kanye Could Actually Affect The 2020 Race
West has said for years, at least as early as 2015, that he would make a run for the presidency in 2020. But it was never clear how serious he was not unlike Trump, who had flirted over the years with seeking political office, without ever being taken too seriously, before deciding to do it in 2016 and then actually winning the White House.
And in the past few years, West has drawn closer to Trump, often to the bewilderment of the political press and his musical peers. He went to see the president-elect in Trump Tower before the inauguration. Hes donned a MAGA hat. He visited the Oval Office to ostensibly talk about criminal justice reform. Every time it was a media sensation, but it never seemed to be more than Kanye being Kanye.
Then in July, he announced he was running for president for real and started trying to get his name on states ballots.
He has already missed filing deadlines in Texas, North Carolina, Florida, and Michigan, among others. That is at least one reason to doubt his chances of winning 270 Electoral College votes on his own.
I initially thought, here we go again, another publicity stunt for West, Lakeyta Bonnette-Bailey, a Georgia State University professor and author of Pulse of the People: Political Rap Music and Black Politics, said in an email. I still think it is partially a publicity stunt. I do not think Kanye believes he can win.
The 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Wild Cards
The first Democratic debate back in 2019 had 20 TWENTY! candidates, so dont be surprised if the Republican field is just as large or larger. We could have some more governors or representatives run, or even other nontraditional candidates, like a Trump family member, a Fox News host or a celebrity, like Dwayne The Rock Johnson, whos said hes seriously considering a run. Stranger things have happened.
Also Check: What Happens If Republicans Win The House
Trump As A Stalking Horse
Of course, there was plenty of speculation during the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination that Trump was trying to sabotage the GOP candidates by saying outrageous things and making a mockery of the process in a bid to help Hillary Clinton win the election.
âDonald Trump is trolling the GOP,â political reporter Jonathan Allen wrote. Trump also threatened to run for president as an independent, a move many believed would siphon votes from the Republican nominee as other, similar candidates have done in the past.
Recommended Reading: How Many Americans Are Registered Republicans
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