The Puzzling Decision To Withdraw From Debates
For most presidential candidates, debates are valuable. They serve as a large-scale, long-format means of detailing their plans and policies to the American public. Thus, it is surprising that the Republican Party would opt out of these debates during this cycle. First, it is always challenging for a presidential challenger to get as much airtime as a sitting president. Because of the nature of the office and the committed press coverage to a sitting President, the incumbent already has a leg up on the competition when it comes to delivering their message to the public. While there have been rumors that President Biden may not seek a second term, the Republican Party must operate under the assumption that he will seek reelection. As a result, the presidential debates offer a challenger an opportunity to be on the same playing fieldin some sense literallyas the sitting president.
Second, presidential campaigns are always a clash and contrast of ideas, and there is no grander stage for that to be played out than in a debate. There are no other opportunities for presidential candidates to face off, directly, across from one another, than in the commission sponsored debates. If a candidate is confident that they are a better candidate, with a more electable set of ideas, and would bring to the office a style and approach far superior to that of their opponent, they should clamor for the opportunity.
Donald Trump Should Be Furious The Rnc Nixed Presidential Debates
On Thursday, the Republican National Committee voted to withdraw its partys candidates from participation in the official presidential debates. Their unanimous vote to separate from the Commission on Presidential Debates is historic and comes after months of suggestions by the RNC and its chairperson Ronna McDaniel that the party would do so. While it is unclear whether such a move would bar a Republican standard bearer from participating if he or she chose to do so, such a move is a serious threat to the democratic process. It should also infuriate any potential 2024 Republican nominee who believes they could win a debate against President Joe Biden.
The Commission on Presidential Debates sponsors the general election debates between the partys presidential nominees and the partys vice presidential nominees . The RNCs decision to withdraw from participation would not impact debates in the party primaries, which are typically formed from agreements among media organizations, a political party, and the potential candidates from a given party.
Which States Will Decide This Election
As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.
Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.
In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.
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Top 5 Democrats With The Best Chance To Beat Trump
Well rank each Democrat based on their current odds, display whether their chances have been going up or down since January 1, 2019, and provide some insight into the top 5 most likely Trump challengers. Some candidates didnt have odds to start the year or currently dont have odds at all and well indicate when thats the case.
1. Joe Biden
- Then: +1400
- % Change: +13.33%
- The former Vice President saw his odds skyrocket after he officially made his announcement in late April. Biden is now not only the Democratic favorite but public money has also made him the biggest riser on the board since 2019 began. His national recognition and huge favorability Rust Belt where Trump won big in 2016 makes Biden the biggest threat to Trumps re-election bid.
2. Bernie Sanders
- Then: +1400
- % Change: +5.83%
- Sen. Bernie Sanders comes second and is not far behind Biden. The Vermont US senator gained national attention in 2016 for his Democratic Socialism platform and became Hillary Clintons biggest challenger for the partys nomination. This time, the public knows who Bernie is, which is why hes received more first-quarter donations than any other Democratic candidate.
3. Kamala Harris
4. Pete Buttigieg
5. Elizabeth Warren
Registered Voters Divided On Which Candidate Will Win
Overall, registered voters are divided over who they think will win the 2020 November election: While 50% of voters believe that Trump will win the presidential election, 48% predict a victory for Biden.
And although voters predictions for who will win the presidential election largely align with their candidate preference, voters who support Trump or lean toward voting for him are slightly more likely than Biden supporters to say that their candidate will win .
Throughout the 2016 presidential campaign, majorities of voters consistently expected a Hillary Clinton victory. In August of 2016, 55% said Clinton would win, compared with 42% who expected Trump to win.
Trump supporters are far more confident their candidate will win today than they were four years ago. Currently, 90% of Trump supporters expect him to win at about the same point in the campaign four years ago, only 74% of Trump supporters said he would prevail over Clinton.
Today, voters who are more certain of their choice in candidate are more likely to expect that their candidate will win the 2020 election. Nearly all strong Trump supporters expect him to win, compared with 77% of his more moderate supporters. Similarly, among Biden supporters, those who support Biden strongly are more likely than those who support him moderately to expect him to win the November election.
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Big Lie Believers Sure To Win Runoffs In Georgia And Alabama
However, this doesnt mean that all of the candidates who didnt respond are secretly harboring election conspiracy beliefs. When candidates responded to our questions, they would also sometimes confirm that they believed the 2020 election was legitimate. Joe Pinion, the Republican nominee for Senate in New York, also didnt have a public record on the 2020 election, but when we reached out he responded unequivocally: The election was legitimate and certified. Joe Biden is the 46th President of the United States of America. Full stop. So these undeclared candidates really cant be presumed to represent either side, and likely include some candidates who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 election and some who dont.
It Was A Setup Against Him For 4 Years
The Durham investigation is proving that President Trump fairly beat Joe Biden in 2020 by showing how a conspiracy was started against him 4 years before. Because of that voters believed lies about our President, they voted on faulty information about him in 2020. So the election was unfair. If the truth had come out Trump would have won and everybody would say so.
Real Americans in the heartland, people who have to work for a living and who are just trying to raise their families in peace, know President Trump won and have been saying so since the 2020 election. But Satanic pedos in Hollywood, the mainstream media, and Dumbocrats been trying to trick people into thinking our President lost. But we are two smart for them and we know the truth.
Below is the raw information from court that shows how Durham is proving Hillary Clinton cheated in 2016 and set up a plan to lie and cheat our president out of a victory in 2020. President Trump is the real president. Everyone knows it and soon maybe if Durham puts Hillary in jail then Trump can kick Joe Biden out of Washington and our president can lead us again.
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Durham writes that Sussmann had assembled and conveyed the allegations to the FBI on behalf of at least two specific clients, including Tech Executive-1, who has been identified as Rodney Joffe, and the Clinton campaign. It was all conspired and planned for 2016 and 2020.
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And Thats Almost Certainly An Undercount
Considering the 2020 election continues to be a major talking point in the Republican primaries, you may be surprised to learn that a sizable chunk of candidates havent publicly stated their opinion on the 2020 election either way. We were unable to find a stated position on the 2020 election for 37 percent of Republican primary candidates and a quarter of GOP nominees . That means that our finding of the number of nominees so far who believe the 2020 election was fraudulent is almost certainly an undercount its likely that a portion of the candidates for whom we cant find a publicly stated opinion are, in fact, election deniers. We know this because when we follow up with these kinds of candidates, they often tell us they are even if they arent serious contenders.
Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
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Yes Of Course Donald Trump Can Win In 2024
When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably and immediately ask some version of this question: Is he going to run again? And can he win?
The he there just in case youve spent the last six years on another planet is Donald Trump.
And the answers to those questions are probably yes and definitely. As in, yes, Trump is probably going to run for president again in 2024. And, yes, he would have a very real chance of winning.
Lets take the second half of that question first. A new Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump and President Joe Biden each at 45% among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, results that are largely unchanged since the last time WSJ asked the question in November.
The simple fact is that if the 2020 presidential race was re-run today, it would effectively be a pure toss up.
Which, if you think about it, makes sense. While Biden took more than 300 electoral votes, his margins in a series of swing states like Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were decidedly narrow. And had those states gone for Trump, he would have almost certainly been reelected.
Now, that is putting the cart before the horse. So, lets return to the first question: Will Trump run?
If you believe him, then yes.
But, its true.
Biden And Harris Would Both Beat Either Trump Or Desantis In 202: Poll
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would both beat the two favorites for the GOP nomination in 2024Donald Trump and Ron DeSantisin either hypothetical matchup, according to a new poll.
An Echelon Insights survey found that if the next election were being held today, voters would narrowly back Biden over Trump , with the president also the preferred choice when up against the Florida governor .
When those taking part in the poll said who they would vote for between Harris and the two Republican frontrunners, the vice president also came out on top.
A total of 46 percent of likely voters said that they would vote for Harris, compared to 44 percent who would back Trump in a hypothetical race. Harris also beat DeSantis by 43 percent to 42 percent, albeit within the net margin of error of 1 percent.
With the next election still more than two years away, it’s still far from certain who the final two candidates will be.
The 79-year-old Biden has signaled that he wants to run again, especially if there is the potential for a rematch against Trump, with his own party reportedly expressing concerns about his age and falling approval ratings.
According to the Echelon Insights poll, more than half of likely voters said they don’t want to see Biden as the 2024 nominee, compared to 28 percent who say they want him to run again and 17 percent who are unsure.
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Bernie Sanders Joe Biden
A literature of alternative histories has sprung up about Democratic candidates other than Hillary Clinton who would have won in 2016. The two most popular titles in this genre? Bernie Would Have Won and Biden Would Have Won. Are they viable for 2020?
A recent poll put Bernie Sanderss approval rating at 75 percent, which makes him the most popular politician in America. Hes the standard-bearer for the populist left whose Medicare for All bill, while still a liberal pipe dream, now seems as much of a litmus test for ambitious national Democrats as abortion rights. He will also be 79 years old on Election Day 2020.
Joe Biden, a son of Scranton, Pa., appeals to the same working-class white voters who flocked to Mr. Trump in 2016. Some progressives no doubt look upon him fondly from his days as Barack Obamas vice president. But Mr. Bidens three-decades-long centrist Senate record, from his handling of Clarence Thomass confirmation hearing in 1991 to his vote for the 2005 bankruptcy bill, might make him a tough sell to todays Democratic primary voters, not to mention the fact that he still has those centrist tendencies . And hell turn 78 in November 2020.
Would Mr. Sanders or Mr. Biden have won in 2016? Well never know but its unlikely either will in 2020.
Professor Predicts Biden Will Beat Trump In November Vote
A history professor who has correctly predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election since 1984 says Democrat Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States.
Appearing in a video streaming from the opinion pages of The New York Times, Allan Lichtman, an American University professor, said he uses what he calls his 13 keys system to forecast election results.
Lichtmans keys include whether a candidate is an incumbent, the long-term and short-term economic conditions, scandals, social unrest, and the candidates personality and appeal.
“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” but not by a landslide, Lichtman said.
Lichtman gives Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, the edge in seven keys, including social unrest, the coronavirus outbreak and how it is destabilizing the economy, and the Trump impeachment.
Six for Trump
Trump has the advantage in six keys. They include the presidents incumbency, no serious Republican primary challengers, no major foreign military failures, and what Lichtman says is Bidens lack of charisma.
Although Lichtman is predicting a close election, a CNN roundup of the latest polls showed Biden winning by a landslide. A Fox News poll found the election a bit closer, but with Biden winning.
But no matter whether a voter is a Republican or a Democrat, Lichtman said, citizen participation is essential.
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How Trump And Biden Supporters Would React To Victory And Defeat
When asked about their reactions to the outcome of the November 2020 election, voters say they would have more positive reactions to Biden winning the election than to Trump being reelected president. And voters reactions to Trumps possible reelection are more intense both positively and negatively than to a Biden victory.
About half of registered voters say they would be excited or relieved if Biden was elected president, while 47% say they would be disappointed or angry.
Among voters who say they would react positively to a Biden victory, far more would be relieved than excited . Among those who expect to react negatively, more say they would be disappointed than angry .
More voters say they would react to a Trump victory with negative than positive emotions. Nearly twice as many voters say they would be angry if Trump wins reelection than if Biden is elected president .
Yet somewhat more voters also say they would be excited by a Trump victory than a Biden victory.
Although both Trump and Biden supporters express positive reactions to their own candidate winning the November election, Trump supporters are about twice as likely to say to say they would be excited if their candidate won the 2020 election than Biden supporters are of their own candidate.
Why Are Republicans Withdrawing From Presidential Debates
Republican Party leadership has been voicing anger over the rules that the Commission on Presidential Debates maintains and has suggested bias in the process, specifically around choices over moderator selection. Those concerns also extend to the timing of debates, term limits for members of the board of directors, and codes of conduct for staff and moderators. The party has demanded that the process and the commission be reformed.
The scope of reforms and the ability to influence the debate process is important to dissect. There are certain aspects of presidential debates that are set by the commission such as sites, moderators, etc. Other aspects of the debates are negotiated between campaigns and the commission, including minutiae like the position of podiums and the temperature of the air. The bigger picture issues, that RNC complaints center on, are typically determined by the commissions board of directors. That board is bipartisan in nature and many members have deep experience in politics and presidential debate procedure and history.
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