Reasons Why Trump Is Likely To Win Re
Edited by Tom Alford, Editor in Chief
President Trump has been repeatedly reported to be trailing in the polls for this weeks General Election. However, we predict that the incumbents re-election is highly likely, and not as improbable as the mainstream media, polls and political risk institutions suggest. Although tentative, we are sharing with you a forecast which will highlight the various factors that could likely result in a victory for President Trump on November 3rd.
Some factors that point to a likely victory for President Trump on November 3rd:
1) Unreliability of polls:
In the months leading up to the 2016 General Election, of the wide range of political opinion polls generated and released, only a select few predicted Trumps victory. Accurately predicting such an outcome is extremely difficult, given the many challenges to gathering representative sample sizes especially within a country as large and diverse as the United States. Moreover, as arguably demonstrated by the data gathered in 2016, Trumps core voter base is less likely to participate in the relevant surveys used to collect this information.
2) Bidens complicated relationship with Black voters:
3) Voter Enthusiasm:
4) Bidens shaky economic message:
5) Trade narrative matters:
7)Corruption and outsider status:
8) Pandemic Response and Economic Impact:
9) Strong economy pre Covid & rebound:
Seven Reasons Why As A Christian I Am Voting For President Donald J Trump
Stephanie Robinson, Guest Writer|October 30, 2020
As a Christian, I am unapologetically voting for Donald J. Trump. Although some argue that the Christian position must be in opposition to President Trump, I argue exactly the opposite.
First, Trump is the pro-religious freedom candidate. Some would argue that religious freedom is not of issue, but when government leaders shut down the in-person gathering of believers, it is clear that religious freedom is at stake. Since the most important thing that we can do while we are on this earth is to have a personal relationship with Christ and be free to worship, praise, and glorify His name, religious freedom is critical. Trump has demonstrated his commitment to the constitutional first amendment and stands to protect the rights of all to worship and gather. He appointed judges and justices that believe the church is essential and on May 22nd, before most pastors had the courage to do so, President Trump deemed houses of worship as essential and called upon governors to allow for places of worship to open. He stated, In America, we need more prayer, not less.
Fourth, Democrats have been saying for years that they will pass criminal justice reform, but it was Trump that got it done. Trump signed the First Step Act, criminal justice reform, that allowed for many prisoners to be successfully reentered into society after having been given long sentences for small crimes. This is the biblical principle of redemption at work.
New 2020 Voter Data: How Biden Won How Trump Kept The Race Close And What It Tells Us About The Future
As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well.
Now, using a massive sample of validated voters whose participation has been independently verified, the Pew Research Center has . It helps us understand how Joe Biden was able to accomplish what Hillary Clinton did notand why President Trump came closer to getting reelected than the pre-election surveys had predicted.
How Joe Biden won
Five main factors account for Bidens success.
How Trump kept it close
Despite non-stop controversy about his policies and personal conduct, President Trump managed to raise his share of the popular vote from 46% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. His core coalition held together, and he made a few new friends.
Longer-term prospects
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Trump Should Not Run For President In 2024 Majority Of Americans Say
As former President Donald Trump considers launching another bid for the White House, more than six in 10 Americans do not want him to run in 2024, according to a new PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. And while Trumps possession of more than 10,000 government documents at his Florida home seems not to have changed the minds of his steady supporters, a plurality of Americans think he has done something illegal.
The level of support for another Trump campaign remains virtually unchanged from December 2020, the month after he lost the presidential election and weeks before a mob of his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an effort to stop the certification of the Electoral College votes.
His numbers dont move. Theyre locked in, said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. The good thing for former President Trump is his numbers dont drop. The bad thing is hes only talking about a third of the electorate who are in his corner.
Graphics by Megan McGrew
Thats not a great place to launch an election campaign, he added.
Just 28 percent of independents believe Trump should run again, this poll found, while two-thirds say the former president should sit out the next election. According to 2020 exit polling, 41 percent of independents had voted for Trumps reelection, suggesting a significant cratering of support since.
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Graphic by Megan McGrew
Question2 Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way The Republicans In Congress Are Handling Their Job
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoApprove 23% 51% 6% 22% 24% 23% 18% 30%Disapprove 65 44 90 65 63 67 74 59DK/NA 12 5 4 14 13 11 8 11 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspApprove 20% 20% 27% 28% 27% 25% 26% 15% 24%Disapprove 58 69 66 66 62 65 64 76 62DK/NA 22 11 7 6 11 10 11 9 13
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Trump Has The Tiger By The Tail
Ok, first off, I am just a little cog in the big wheel of life! Why am I voting for Trump you ask? Very simple! The Reds and the Blues of this country have had plenty of time to get the situation under control and they have proven that they are incapable of getting the job done! Nero Plays as Rome Burns! And the Senators are hiding and licking their wounds like scared sheep! Enter The Donald!
Like him or hate him, he is a businessman and he has the Tiger by the Tail! The Tiger is the common working man in this country that is tired of Politics and Washington continuing to screw us over in the process of ruining the country we all love! We want to give a businessman the chance to prove that this country can be great again! All the Dems can come up with is a Socialist, a confirmed habitual liar and the village idiot! The Repubs have all their faith in a Shrub that cant even speak to a group and make sense. The rest are milling around trying to fake that they can keep up! Politics is in the dumper and just maybe the best hope for America is The Donald!
Trump 16
October 13, 2020 By Debbie Young
President Donald J. Trump walks into the East Room of the White House to address his remarks on Operation Legend: Combatting Violent Crime in American Cities Wednesday, July 22, 2020, at the White House.
Francis Mentons opening statement:
Whom should a Libertarian vote for President in 2020?
The answer is obvious: Donald Trump.
Consider Biden vs. President Trump:
Question6 Overall Do You Think The Country Is Better Off Or Worse Off Today Than It Was A Year Ago
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoBetter 41% 5% 76% 38% 37% 45% 53% 25%Worse 52 94 14 56 56 48 44 70SAME 5 1 7 4 4 5 1 3DK/NA 3 - 2 2 3 2 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspBetter 44% 43% 37% 40% 30% 38% 34% 67% 42%Worse 44 51 58 56 65 58 61 24 50SAME 8 4 4 2 2 2 2 7 4DK/NA 4 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 4
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A Conservative Supreme Court Does Worry Me
I am voting absentee in this election due to my military service outside of my state of residence. The election commission emailed my ballot to me a few days before Justice Ginsburg passed away. Id printed it and started filling it out, but it was still laying on the kitchen table when I received an alert on my phone with the news that she had passed. I was watching TV with my husband and paused the show. My immediate thought was this is not good, and I might need to reprint my ballot.
I love the United States because we do have a peaceful transfer of power between two different ideological points every four to eight years. A conservative Supreme Court threatens that balance. It means they could just overturn or overrule every idea coming out of the left, and I dont think their ideas are all bad. Throughout history, when one political party or person gets too much power, they dont make good decisions. To have a conservative majority on the court for the rest of my life could affect something that I care about deeply in the future. I dont even know what that is yet.
That said, there is definitely precedent for a sitting president to make a nomination in an election year, and even stronger precedent for a confirmation to take place when the presidents party also controls the Senate. I would have loved to see a more moderate nominee, but President Trump is going to nominate someone who will satisfy his base. Unfortunately, this has left us with Judge Amy Coney Barrett.
Can We Trust The Polls
Its easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But its not entirely true.
Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesnt mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.
Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree meaning Mr Trumps advantage in some key battleground states wasnt spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.
But this year theres even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect its having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.
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Question7 How Concerned Are You About
WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoVery concerned 20% 10% 30% 16% 12% 28% 16% 16%Somewhat concerned 32 23 42 31 26 37 37 29Not so concerned 19 16 20 22 24 15 21 20Not concerned at all 28 49 7 29 37 20 26 32DK/NA 1 2 - 2 1 2 - 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspVery concerned 14% 19% 20% 28% 8% 23% 16% 37% 27%Somewhat concerned 35 29 33 33 27 37 32 34 33Not so concerned 28 15 16 17 24 17 20 12 12Not concerned at all 22 37 28 22 39 21 29 17 28DK/NA 2 - 3 1 2 2 2 - -
Gender Gap: Voting Choices In Presidential Elections
A gender gap in voting refers to a difference between the percentage of women and the percentage of men voting for a given candidate, generally the winning candidate. Even when women and men favor the same candidate, they may do so by different margins, resulting in a gender gap. In every presidential election since 1980, a gender gap has been apparent, with a greater proportion of women than men preferring the Democrat in each case. The magnitude of the gender gap has ranged in size from four to twelve points since 1980. The womens vote is the percentage point advantage that one candidate has over the other among women voters- that is, the difference in support for the major party candidates among women voters only.
In every presidential election since 1996, a majority of women have preferred the Democratic candidate. Moreover, women and men have favored different candidates in presidential elections since 2000, with the exception of 2008 when men were almost equally divided in their preferences for Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain. In 2020, a majority of women favored the Democratic victor, Joe Biden, while a majority of men voted for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump.
To directly access the data presented below, please download the following Excel file: Gender Gap Exit Poll Data
Methodology and Sources:
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A Brew Of White Supremacy And Self
In short, those 71 million votes arent just a fad. The backbone of Trump support still very much stands. In racial terms, whiteness indeed is the most common denominator.Read on Vox: Election results: White people make up the majority of Trump voters in 2020 So there certainly is truth to the theory that racism, xenophobia and status preservation from that group are fundamental driving forces for voting for Trump.
But there are also other motivators that stem from voters immediate self-interest. From the 1%, to large corporates and publicly traded companies, to small business owners and those afraid of or in the grip of unemployment, Trump managed to either create economic benefits or capitalise on tailwinds of economic improvement, to really cut through.
In a political system that makes few other transformative offerings, economic prosperity is the most immediate benefit
For those who already secured employment, grew their businesses or received tax windfalls, the motivation to maintain these benefits is even more powerful than the motivation in 2016, when they were just promises. Biden and the Democrats can then be successfully cast as a threat to a persons economic fate.
Rational Trump Voter : Us Americans Threatened By Low
Between January 2017 and July 2020, the Trump administration took over 400 executive actions on immigration. From the high-profile Muslim ban early in his tenure, to the family separation policy at the border, from the strengthening of ICE and denying permanent residence to people who claimed benefits from the government to the limits put on refugees and asylum seekers, the immigration policies enacted over the past four years have significantly decreased both inbound immigration to the US and residence and naturalisation of immigrants already on US soil.
This was a benefit to Trump voters both in real terms as well as in terms of perception. According toThe Economist, the impact of reducing particularly low-skilled migration is being felt in certain occupations, specifically housekeeping, building and grounds maintenance, and drywall installation.
People who believed immigration to be the most important issue facing the US today were the second-largest Trump voting contingent
Calculations showed that average wages in those three jobs rose at a higher rate than other low paid jobs. Other research shows that in areas where there was a decline in the population of people born overseas, wages began to rise at a rate of 5% a year.
People who believed immigration to be the most important issue facing the US today were the second-largest Trump voting contingent after hardcore right wingers who believed that abortion was the most important issue facing the country.
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Voter Engagement And Candidate Preferences
Just as Biden holds an advantage over Trump among all registered voters in the current survey, his lead over Trump looks similar across a variety of voter engagement metrics ranging from about 8 to 12 percentage points.
Biden has a lead among voters who have thought a lot about the election , as well as among those who say it really matters who wins the presidential election this November .
The Democratic candidate also leads Trump among those who say they are extremely motivated to vote, and among those who say they follow what is going on in government and public affairs most of the time .
And among validated voters voters whose record of voting in the presidential election were matched to a state-administered voter file in the two most recent national elections, Biden outperforms Trump among each group: 8 percentage points among 2016 validated voters and 12 points among 2018 validated voters .
Question1a Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way Donald Trump Is Handling His Job As President Combined With: Do You Strongly Or Somewhat Approve/disapprove
WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoApprove strongly 26% 59% 2% 23% 31% 22% 20% 38%Approve smwht 7 12 1 10 8 6 8 9Disapprove smwht 5 8 2 5 8 2 5 5Disapprove strongly 55 13 95 54 45 65 61 42DK/NA 6 9 1 8 8 5 7 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspApprove strongly 12% 22% 36% 29% 38% 25% 31% 6% 29%Approve smwht 10 7 8 5 10 8 9 4 5Disapprove smwht 11 5 2 3 6 3 5 4 6Disapprove strongly 61 56 49 59 38 59 49 84 52DK/NA 6 10 5 4 8 5 6 3 8
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