Voting Patterns In The 2020 Election
The 2020 election featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts. The gender gap in the 2020 election was narrower than it had been in 2016 as Democrats made gains among men and Republicans made gains among women. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 percentage points while Hillary Clinton won women by 15 points . In the 2018 election, Democrats substantially narrowed the gap with men while maintaining an 18-point lead among women. In the 2020 election, men again divided nearly evenly , while Bidens advantage narrowed to 11 points among women .
Similarly, as Biden increased his level of support among White men in the 2020 election relative to Clintons in 2016, Trump gained among White women, which had the effect of further narrowing the gender gap among White voters. In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points . That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 . White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 , favored him in 2020 .
Biden received the support of 92% of Black voters, nearly the same as Clinton received in 2016 and Democratic candidates for the U.S. House received in 2018.
Party and ideology
Age and generation
White non-evangelical Protestants voted for Trump over Biden by a 14-point margin , while Black Protestants were an overwhelmingly Democratic group .
Republicans Who Voted For Bidens Infrastructure Bill Threatened With Retaliation
Rightwingers in the party call for members who helped pass the bill to be stripped of their committee assignments
A group of congressional Republicans who helped pass the Biden administrations infrastructure bill last Friday are facing calls for political punishment by their own party, including the threat of having their committee assignments stripped for supporting the presidents agenda, according to reports this week.
Several hardline Republicans, including the Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert and former Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, have publicly urged retaliation against party colleagues who voted for the $1tn bill.
Some members who were among the GOP rank and file who helped the bill pass the House say they have received death threats.
Many of the Republicans who backed the bipartisan bill have ranking positions on full committees or subcommittees, including the homeland security committee and the natural resources committee.
The bill, which passed 228 to 206, would have failed if no Republicans voted for it in the House late last Friday, prompting widespread fury and intra-party threats, Punchbowl news reported.
That 13 House Republicans provided the votes needed to pass this is absurd, the Texas representative Chip Roy said, and the Washington Post has reported.
Floridas Matt Gaetz had fumed early on Saturday, tweeting: I cant believe Republicans just gave the Democrats their socialism bill.
Demographic Profiles Of Trump And Biden Voters
As was the case in the 2016 and 2018 elections, the Democratic voting coalition in 2020 looked quite different from the Republican coalition in several respects. Overall, Biden voters were younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and less likely to live in rural areas than Trump voters.
In 2020, 85% of voters who cast a ballot for Trump were White non-Hispanic this compares with just 61% of Biden voters. These differences are roughly consistent with the share of White voters in each partys coalition in 2016.
Nearly two-in-ten voters who cast a ballot for Biden in the 2020 election were Black, identical to the share of Clinton voters in 2016 who were Black. That is significantly higher than the share of Trump voters who were Black .
The community profiles of Trump and Biden voters are similar in some fundamental ways to the previous two elections but more voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 say they live in a suburban area compared with Clintons 2016 voters.
Overall, urban voters continue to constitute a larger share of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition. And rural voters remain a significantly larger portion of the Republican electorate.
However, when comparing Clintons voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts. In 2016, about half of Clintons voters described their communities as suburban , while 32% said they were from an urban area and 19% were from a rural area.
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What Did Trump Say About The Election Results
Trump finally promised an “orderly transition” of power after Biden was officially declared the president-elect.
It came after Trump supporters stormed the Capitol building as lawmakers met to certify the results of November’s election.
At least four people died and several others were seriously injured in clashes after rioters fought cops and pushed their way inside the Capitol.
After lawmakers were allowed back into the building, a joint session of Congress reconvened and an electoral college count of 306 for Biden and 232 for Trump was certified.
A statement was then released from the White House in which the president pledged an “orderly transition” on January 20.
Even though I totally disagree with the outcome of the election, and the facts bear me out, nevertheless there will be an orderly transition on January 20th, it read.
I have always said we would continue our fight to ensure that only legal votes were counted.
So Why Do Republicans Still Have An Edge
Democrats might stem the tide or shore up their base, but Republicans still have a big lead among voters who prioritize inflation and the economy. Plus, a year of voter frustration over those issues won’t go away overnight, as shown by the belief of more voters that Republicans will prioritize inflation if they win control of Congress, than Democrats will if they win.
There are also just more safe Republican seats than Democratic ones in the House. Republicans need only to flip four competitive seats to win a majority. Our model indicates that they would be well positioned to do so if the elections were today.
This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,126 registered voters interviewed between August 24-26, 2022. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as to 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.4 points. The House seats estimates are based on a multilevel regression and post-stratification model incorporating voter responses to this survey. Each party’s seat estimate has a margin of error of ±13 seats.
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Gsa Delays Certifying Biden As President
Although all major media outlets called the election for Biden on November 7, the head of the General Services Administration , Trump appointee Emily W. Murphy, refused for over two weeks to certify Biden as the president-elect. Without formal GSA certification or “ascertainment” of the winner of the election, the official transition process was delayed. On November 23, Murphy acknowledged Biden as the winner and said the Trump administration would begin the formal transition process. Trump said he had instructed his administration to “do what needs to be done” but did not concede, and indicated he intended to continue his fight to overturn the election results.
Gas And The Economy Can Biden Rally Base
A majority of voters say gas prices in their area are going down.
Fewer Americans view the economy negatively than a month ago, though things are still seen as bad. Fears of a recession loom, but more voters now see the economy as at least holding steady than did so in June.
Biden’s job approval, and specifically his job ratings on handling bread-and-butter issues like the economy, inflation, and gas prices, have all risen. His overall job approval number is the highest it’s been among registered voters since February.
Here’s why improving views of the economy helps bolster the Democratic base heading into fall:
- Much of Mr. Biden’s gains come from Democrats. He’s up 8 points since July on Democrats strongly approving of him. And we see a marked boost in their feelings about the county generally: 52% now say things are going at least somewhat well, up from 39% in July.
- This starts to reverse some of the losses we’ve tracked among Mr. Biden’s own party over the last year. These developments may have given the base a reason to reassess.
- Look at young people, whom the Democrats count on: the cancellation of some student loan debt is particularly popular among voters under age 30. And the president’s overall approval rating has moved into positive territory among them now, up from last month.
The next hurdle for Democrats, though, is getting young people to vote in the off year elections they still don’t vote in the kind of numbers older people do.
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Biden On Inflation Reduction Act: Every Single Republican Voted Against Tackling The Climate Crisis
President Joe Biden said Tuesday that by signing the Inflation Reduction Act into law, he will be keeping his campaign commitment not to raise taxes on Americans earning less than $400,000 annually.
I’m keeping my campaign commitment. No one, let me emphasize, no one earning less than $400,000 a year will pay a penny more in federal taxes. The Inflation Reduction Act does so many things that for so many years so many of us have fought to make happen, he said during a signing ceremony.
Let’s be clear, in this historic moment, Democrats sided with the American people and every single Republican in the congress sided with the special interests in this vote. Every single one. In fact, the big drug companies spent nearly $100 million to defeat this bill. $100 million, Biden said.
Remember, every single Republican in congress voted against this bill. Every single Republican in congress voted against lowering prescription drug prices, against lowering healthcare costs, against the fairer tax system. Every single Republican, every single one voted against tackling the climate crisis, against lowering our energy costs, against creating good paying jobs, he said.
My fellow Americans, that’s the choice we face. We can protect the already powerful or show the courage to build a future where everybody has an even shot, the president said.
Rep Don Young Of Alaska
Young, who announced he was running for reelection in late April,
was one of 13 GOP members who voted for the bill earlier this month. In a statement following his vote, he noted that the bipartisan bill may be our last best chance to make the federal investments necessary to modernize and strengthen America’s infrastructure needs for the next century and beyond.
Was this bill perfect? No, but truthfully, few pieces of legislation are, he said in the statement. However, I firmly believe that we cannot sacrifice the good for the perfect. Very frankly, inaction on infrastructure risks our nation’s fundamental economic independence and strength.
Jaime Herrera Beutler Washington
CBS News projected that Beutler did not advance out of Washington’s top-two primary system. Trump-backed Republican Joe Kent, who has repeated Trump’s falsehoods about the 2020 election, advanced, along with Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
Gluesenkamp Perez received 31% of the vote, with Kent receiving 22.8% and Herrera Beutler following with 22.3%.
Herrera Beutler issued a statement conceding one week after the election. She thanked the district for its support but did not mention Trump by name.
An Examination Of The 2020 Electorate Based On Validated Voters
Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2020 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016 and 2018. For this analysis, we surveyed U.S. adults online and verified their turnout in the three general elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters all others are presumed not to have voted.
We surveyed 11,818 U.S. adults online in November 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. The surveys were supplemented with measures taken from annual recruitment and profile surveys conducted in 2018 and 2020. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel , an online survey panel recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education, turnout and vote choice in the three elections, and many other characteristics. Read more about the ATPs methodology.
Validated voters, defined
Here are some of the other key findings from the analysis:
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In A Divided Country Elections Are Won On The Margin
The American electorate hasnt always been this partisan. When Nixon won the presidency in 1972, about 30 percent of his votes came from Democrats Reagan got near a quarter of his votes from the same source in 1980. This willingness to cross party lines made possible the landslides of 1964, 1972, 1980 and 1984. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, however, the two major parties became far more ideologically homogeneous. Liberals increasingly identified as Democrats, conservatives overwhelmingly aligned with the GOP, and presidential elections became much closer.
The election of Donald Trump as president and his subsequent takeover of the Republican Party intensified these partisan differences beyond what previously had occurred. From his first day in office, Democrats intensely disliked him and Republicans especially his base revered him. It was thus unsurprising that the 2020 election featured a level of partisan voting that exceeded even that of 2016. Likewise, the outcome was once again decided by a handful of votes in the battleground states.
We use two data sources in our analyses: the final pre-election YouGov/CBS survey and a series of October YouGov/CBS polls of various key states. We recognize that pre-election polls underestimated the number of Republican voters in the electorate. However, since we examine relative levels of support among various groups, the inaccuracies in absolute numbers should not impact our conclusions.
The Rise Of The Biden Republicans
The pollster who identified Reagan Democrats in the 1980s sees the emergence of a mirror image voting bloc. And it spells trouble for a GOP dominated by Trump.
03/04/2021 07:55 PM EST
Zack Stanton is digital editor of Politico Magazine and a native of Macomb County. You can find him .
There are unwritten rules that dictate how American politics works. Former presidents shouldnt weigh in on quotidian partisan squabbles. An incumbent senator shouldnt support a primary challenger running against a fellow incumbent. If youre an elected official, avoid directly comparing yourself to Abraham Lincolnshow some humility and instruct surrogates to do that on your behalf. Never try to correct a middle-schooler spelling the word potato. And if you want to take the pulse of white middle America, go to its de facto national capitalMacomb County, Michigan.
Every four years, as if driven by mainspring, presidents, those aspiring to be presidents and the reporters who cover them, return to the blue-collar Detroit suburbs to try out their messages and make sense of whats happening in middle America.
Republican presidential nominee Ronald Reagan holds his beer as he grills kielbasa in the backyard of Emil Petrie , a recently laid off steelworker, during a Labor Day barbecue with “working people” in September 1980 in suburban Detroit.|Bettmann/Getty Images
And that puts Republicans in a strategically difficult position.
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Full List Of 13 Republicans Who Voted For Biden’s Infrastructure Bill
The House of Representatives passed a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill late on Friday following a compromise between moderate and progressive Democrats.
The bill had already been passed in the Senate with some Republican support and 13 GOP members of the House joined most Democrats in voting to pass the infrastructure proposal in what will be seen as a win for President Joe Biden.
The House voted at 11.24 p.m. E.T. after weeks of divisions within the Democratic Party as progressives sought to link the bipartisan bill to a separate reconciliation bill known as the Build Back Better Act.
The bill passed by a vote of 228 to 206 with six progressive Democrats joining the majority of Republican members in voting against the measure.
The Republicans who voted in favor of the bill were: Don Bacon of Nebraska, Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Andrew Garbarino of New York, Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio, John Katko of New York, Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Nicole Malliotakis of New York, David McKinley of West Virginia, Tom Reed of New York, Chris Smith of New Jersey, Fred Upton of Michigan, Jeff van Drew of New Jersey and Don Young of Alaska.
The House also passed a procedural vote shortly after midnight to advance consideration of the Build Back Better Act.
However, the 13 Republicans’ decision to back the bill was also met with criticism.
Not Even A Single Republican Voted For The Climate Bill
The Inflation Reduction Act is unmistakably partisan. Can the GOP undo it?
The Inflation Reduction Act, passed by the House of Representatives today, is about to become the first comprehensive climate legislation in U.S. history. Compared with Congresss desultory approach to the issue in the past, the numbers are striking: The legislation will spend roughly $374 billion on decarbonization and climate resilience over the next 10 years, getting us two-thirds of the way to Americas Paris Agreement goals.
But perhaps the most important number about the package is zero. Zero Republicans in the House. Zero Republicans in the Senate. The IRA was adopted entirely along party lines, with all Democrats and not a single congressional Republican in support of the legislation.
The number drives home an unmistakable reality: Even after years of effort from environmentalists, climate change remains a starkly partisan issue in America. The bill passed only because there were 50 Democrats in the Senate, with a Democratic vice president to cast the tie-breaking vote. Had any of those Democrats lost their electionshad Joe Manchin, for instance, decided against running for reelection in 2018 in his heavily Republican home state, or had Democrats not eked out two Senate wins in Georgia last yearthen the bill would not have made it across the finish line.
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