Results Summary And Analysis
The Democratic Party won control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. The Democrats gained a net total of 41 seats from the total number of seats they had won in the 2016 elections. This was their largest gain of House seats in an election since the 1974 elections, when the Democrats gained 49 House seats. Democrats won the popular vote by more than 9.7 million votes or 8.6%, the largest midterm margin for any party and the largest margin on record for a minority party.
Voter turnout in this election was 50.3%, the highest turnout in a U.S. midterm election since 1914.
Note that the results summary does not include blank and over/under votes which were included in the official results or votes cast in the voided election in North Carolinas 9th congressional district.
Republicans Hold On To Senate Majority With Upset Victories
Republicans retained their majority in the Senate on Tuesday after a string of upset victories in key states and gave the GOP sweeping powers to advance President-elect Donald Trumps agenda, including his appointments to the Supreme Court.
With a GOP House majority also secure, Republicans now have full control of the White House and Congress after an election season that began with their party facing long odds because of the large number of Senate seats they had to defend. Republicans entered Election Day expecting to fight head winds in several states because of Trumps controversial candidacy.
But Trump overwhelmed Democrat Hillary Clinton in several critical states, giving the GOP an unexpected margin of victory.
Trump provided coattails that gave the GOP a major win that could allow him an easier path toward confirming Supreme Court justices and Cabinet nominees, as well as fashioning long-sought legislation to overturn signature achievements of the Obama administration, particularly the Affordable Care Act.
Republicans defended their Senate seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, states that once looked like some of their toughest terrain.
Democrats picked up a seat in Illinois, where Rep. Tammy Duckworth unseated Sen. Mark Kirk.
According to one estimate, New Hampshire wasnt far behind, with about $125;million spent there in a state where only about 800,000 were expected to vote.
Speaker Of The House Of Representatives
The position of Speaker is constitutionally specified in Article 1, Section 2. The Speaker is the only party leader who is chosen by a roll-call vote of the full House of Representatives, which occurs after each party has nominated a candidate for the position when a new Congress convenes. House rules give the Speaker various formal duties. These include, for example, administering the oath of office to new Members, signing House-passed bills and resolutions, presiding over the House , referring measures to committees, and naming the party’s slate of members for certain committee positions. Each party conference cedes additional powers and responsibilities to a Speaker from its own party, including influence over the makeup of certain standing committees. For more information, consult CRS Report 97-780, The Speaker of the House: House Officer, Party Leader, and Representative, by Valerie Heitshusen, and CRS Report RL30857, Speakers of the House: Elections, 1913-2019, by Valerie Heitshusen.
Table 1. Speakers of the House of Representatives, 1789-2019
See the “” section at the end of this report for a description and full citation of all sources.
Notes:A key to all party abbreviations can be found in the Appendix of this report.
b. Resigned from the House of Representatives, January 19, 1814.
c. Resigned the speakership on October 28, 1820.
d. Resigned from the House, March 6, 1825.
e. Resigned from the House, June 2, 1834.
i. Died in office, August 19, 1876.
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Who Ended Up With Majority Control Of The Us Senate
All eyes were on which party would control the U.S. Senate in 2015. The Democratic-controlled Senate in the 113th Congress had a partisan breakdown of 53-45-2, with the two Independents caucusing with the Democrats. For Republicans to take the majority in the Senate, they needed to take at least six of the 36 seats up for election that were held by Democrats, and retain control of the 15 seats held by Republicans. The section updated the seat count for each party throughout the night and the vote totals in the hotly contested races.
“*” indicates that the incumbent retired in 2014.
|U.S. Senate, Alabama General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Alaska General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Arkansas General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Colorado General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Delaware General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Georgia General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Idaho General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Illinois General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Iowa General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Kansas General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Kentucky General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Louisiana Primary Election, 2014|
|and Bill Cassidy headed to a runoff election on December 6, 2014.Louisiana Secretary of State|
|U.S. Senate, Maine General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Massachusetts General Election, 2014|
|U.S. Senate, Michigan General Election, 2014|
|Links to all election results, 2014|
States That Lost Seats
California continues to be the most populous state in the country, but its pace of growth has slowed enough that it will lose a seat in the next Congress. That means the states independent redistricting commission will have to decide what part of the state loses representation, which could hurt one party. Based on population growth, the endangered seat could very well be a district located completely or partly in Los Angeles County. And because Democrats control almost all of those seats, that could mean they will suffer a net loss from Californias redistricting. However, the removal of a district could make Republican Rep. Mike Garcias seat in northern Los Angeles County even more Democratic-leaning than it already is Biden carried it by 10 points if the districts new lines stretch further southward, which would give Democrats a better chance of capturing that seat.
Lastly, we know for sure that Republicans will be the ones to lose a seat in West Virginia. All three current members of Congress from the Mountain State belong to the GOP, so at least one out of Reps. David McKinley, Alex Mooney or Carol Miller will not be in the next Congress. Expect a lot of intrigue surrounding how, exactly, the seat is redrawn and perhaps a rare incumbent-vs.-incumbent primary election.
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A Statewide Primary And The 1986 Election
|This section does not cite any . Please help improve this section by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.|
In 1972, the state party made a historic change from a state convention nominating system for all candidates to having a statewide party primary. This allowed voters to directly choose all nominees for public and party offices with its main goal being to broaden public support for the party. It would only slowly have that desired effect. In 1978, the party would begin its long steady build-up to competing for seats in the legislature by winning a few seats in suburban Birmingham, Mobile, and Montgomery. In 1980, Jeremiah Denton became the first popularly elected Republican U. S. Senator in Alabama history after first winning that new statewide primary.
Biden Administration: Heres Who Has Been Named So Far
Return of the bipartisan gangs
After months of stalemate over the size and scope of a coronavirus relief package in the closing weeks of the last Congress, a group of centrists from both parties, led by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, unveiled a $900 billion compromise plan that became the basis for the legislation that ultimately was approved by the House and Senate and signed by President Trump.
Manchin has said he hopes that model can translate into efforts in 2021.
Other Republican moderates such as Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska who helped on the COVID-19 aid package could also serve as powerful players if they decide to work across the aisle.
Progressives push for Senate rule changes
Liberal Democrats have pressed to get rid of the legislative filibuster so that they can pass major health care or environmental bills with a simple majority.
Biden has sidestepped questions about whether he supports doing away with keeping the 60-vote threshold, but several top Senate Democrats have signaled they back changing a rule that many of them once insisted was essential to the institution. There will be intense pressure on Biden and Democratic leaders to show they can pass some bills with GOP support, but if Senate Republicans stay largely unified to thwart the new administrations agenda, calls to eliminate the filibuster will increase.
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United States Senate Elections 2022
|U.S. Senate Elections by State|
|U.S. House Elections|
Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on , and 34 of the 100 seats are up for regular election. Special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur in the 117th Congress. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections in 2022 will begin their six-year terms on January 3, 2023.
Fourteen seats held by Democrats and 20 seats held by Republicans are up for election in 2022. Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump won in 2020.
Following the 2020 Senate elections and the January 2021 runoffs in Georgia, Democrats and Republicans split the chamber 50-50. This gave Vice President Kamala Harris a tie-breaking vote, and Democrats control of the U.S. Senate via a power-sharing agreement.
States With Obamacare Lawsuits
Attorneys general in 27 states filed lawsuits in 2010 and 2011 challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. Two-thirds of those attorney general seats were up for election in 2014. The following table tracks partisan control over these attorney general offices before and after the 2014 election.
|States involved in Obamacare lawsuits|
Voters weighed in on some of the nation’s most contentious topics during the 2014 elections, making this election cycle one of the most significant in recent history. Decisions made at the ballot box established important precedents and set the tone for future elections. Below are the statewide measures Ballotpedia identified as the most important, high-profile and divisive of 2014. These measures were selected based on the issues addressed, the amount of money spent on them, the volume of media attention focused on each, and the likelihood that the outcomes of these measures would affect future ballot measure elections. The chart below was updated as results came in.
Topics on the ballot:
- Big funds in Montana: Justice Wheat prevailed over his challenger.
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The Impact Of The Filibuster On Federal Policymaking
This report looks at the impact of the filibuster on legislative policymaking, describing how the filibuster came to be; its increased use; the disproportionate power it provides to a small segment of society; and what legislative priorities it has been used to derail.
- Sam Hananelgro.ssergorpnacirema@lenanahs
The Impact Of The Filibuster On Legislative Outcomes
It is easy to demonstrate that the filibuster has increased in use and that it allows a small minority to frustrate the will of the majority. It is not easy, however, to quantify the actual impact of the filibuster. To provide a sense of the filibusters impact, this report first examines significant bills that were blocked by filibusters. Second, it provides examples of legislation that never made it to a vote in the first place because senators assumed these bills would be blocked by the filibuster.
The list of bills is intended to capture significant policy changes that would have gone into effect if not for the filibuster. It is composed of bills considered since the beginning of the Clinton administration that: 1) had the support of a majority of senators; 2) were subject to a filibuster but lacked the 60 votes to overcome it; and 3) would likely have become law if passed by the Senate.
Note that, in some cases, filibustered bills were eventually passed but with substantial concessions to the senators blocking the original bill.
Bills that the Senate filibuster blocked
108th Congress : Bush administration, Republican trifecta
109th : Bush administration, Republican trifecta
115th : Trump administration, Republican trifecta
- S.2311Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act. This bill would have made it illegal to perform an abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy.
103rd Congress : Clinton administration, Democratic trifecta
Public option for healthcare
Y Control In Congress And State Legislatures
In the politics of education course I teach this semester, I was looking for a nice overview of trends in party control for Congress and state legislatures. Just a simple chart showing trends in which party holds the majority in the House and Senate and whether similar trends occur in state legislatures. We often just focus on one or the other, but I want to see Congress and states on the same graph.
But I couldnt quite find what I was looking for. So in its absence , I compiled data from the Senate and House history pages along with the National Conference of State Legislatures partisan composition page.
A few notes about whats being measured here. For the states, NCSL tells us whether both chambers are controlled by a given party. If Democrats hold both chambers, then the state is coded as Democrat. States are coded as Split if Democrats carry one chamber and Republicans the other. Nebraska is omitted because it has a non-partisan unicameral legislature, but I put them in the Split plus NE category just so we have all 50 states. And all data are as of January of the given year, except 2016, which uses December to reflect the outcomes of the most recent election:
Shifting gears to Congress, the chart shows the percentage of members from each of the two parties:
But these three charts are hard to put the full picture together, so the following combines them into a single visualization that I think tells the story a little clearer:
Ten Democratic Senators Vote With Republicans For Keystone Xl Pipeline
Ten Democratic senators have voted with Republicans to allow the progress of a bill to extend the Keystone oil pipeline, placing more political pressure on the White House to reconsider its proposed veto of the legislation.
The procedural motion was passed by 63 votes to 32, comfortably clearing the three-fifths majority needed to avoid a filibuster and falling just short of the two-thirds majority that would be needed to overcome a presidential veto when it comes to a final vote.
But some of the Democrats, who were also joined by Maine independent Angus King, may switch votes in future to avoid embarrassing Barack Obama who has said he is opposed to Congress interfering in a long-running administration review of the pipeline extension.
Keystone has become a symbolic battlefield for the administrations climate change policy, with critics insisting that it will encourage the exploitation of heavily-polluting Canadian tar sands and supporters claiming it will create thousands of jobs.
The bill will now see various amendments added over the coming weeks, a process which could ultimately decide on its level of support among Democrats.
It was approved by the House of Representatives last week by 266-152 votes, a margin also short of the two-thirds majority in both chambers needed to overcome White House opposition.
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How Many Democrats How Many Republicans
I want to follow up on my last post regarding how variations in poll results are often due to differences in how pollsters construct their samples. The previous post talked primarily about whether pollsters were sampling likely or registered voters. Obama, I suggested, polled better among registered voters. ;Today I want to look at another decision pollsters must make: whether to weight their sample by party identification and, if so, what weights to use. We know that whether one considers oneself a Democrat or a Republican is the biggest single determinant of how someone will vote. Not surprisingly, people tend to vote for the candidate who shares their party identification. So a poll that includes 40% Democrats in its sample is likely to have more favorable results for Obama than one that includes 35% Democrats, all other things being equal. Ditto for McCain and variations in the number of Republicans sampled.
To see how this makes a difference, consider two ;respected national polls that came out yesterday. CBS/NY Times came out with their monthly national poll that has Obama up 49-44, with 6 undecided.
Rasmussen, meanwhile, has the race tied, 48-48% in its latest tracking poll.
I show you these numbers to give you an idea of what it means to weight by party.; But why does it matter? Compare the CBS weighting to what Rasmussen calculates when they weight by party.