Demographic Profiles Of Trump And Biden Voters
As was the case in the 2016 and 2018 elections, the Democratic voting coalition in 2020 looked quite different from the Republican coalition in several respects. Overall, Biden voters were younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and less likely to live in rural areas than Trump voters.
In 2020, 85% of voters who cast a ballot for Trump were White non-Hispanic this compares with just 61% of Biden voters. These differences are roughly consistent with the share of White voters in each partys coalition in 2016.
Nearly two-in-ten voters who cast a ballot for Biden in the 2020 election were Black, identical to the share of Clinton voters in 2016 who were Black. That is significantly higher than the share of Trump voters who were Black .
The community profiles of Trump and Biden voters are similar in some fundamental ways to the previous two elections but more voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 say they live in a suburban area compared with Clintons 2016 voters.
Overall, urban voters continue to constitute a larger share of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition. And rural voters remain a significantly larger portion of the Republican electorate.
However, when comparing Clintons voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts. In 2016, about half of Clintons voters described their communities as suburban , while 32% said they were from an urban area and 19% were from a rural area.
Preemptively Rejecting A Possible Fetterman Victory
The health challenges of the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvanias Senate race, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, have also been used to cast preemptive doubt on the possible outcome.
After Trump was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020, some right-wing personalities insisted the election must have been stolen because Biden was such a poor candidate. On Fox last week, as Media Matters noted, prime-time host Tucker Carlson made a similar argument about Pennsylvanias Senate race suggesting people should not accept a Fetterman win because it would be transparently absurd for a candidate who has had difficulties with public speaking and auditory processing since a stroke in May to legitimately prevail.
Midterms Usually Don’t Favor The Incumbent Party
Though President Joe Biden has asked voters to think of the upcoming election as a “choice” rather than a “referendum,” midterms historically have been a referendum on the party in power.
That’s not a great sign for Democrats who control the presidency and both chambers of Congress. Former President George W. Bush was the exception to the trend. Political analysts attribute the GOP gain in the House to the rallying effect post 9/11 attacks.
Here’s how recent presidents’ parties have fared in the U.S. House in the midterm races held during their first terms:
- Bill Clinton: Democrats lost 54 seats
- Bush: Republicans gained 8 seats
- Barack Obama: Democrats lost 63 seats
- Donald Trump: Republicans lost 41 seats
Emma Kinery
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Biden Highlights Democracy And Abortion Rights In Final Campaign Pitch
President Joe Biden cast the midterm elections Monday as a struggle for democracy and an effort to protect social programs and codify abortion rights.
Speaking at Bowie State University in Maryland as he campaigned for the state’s Democratic nominee for governor, Wes Moore, Biden listed Democrats’ accomplishments on issues like infrastructure, veteran services and prescription drug costs.
He also vowed to prevent congressional Republicans from further restricting abortion.
If Republicans gain control of Congress and pass a nationwide ban on abortion, I will veto it, Biden said, adding that if enough Democrats are elected in both chambers, were going to codify Roe v. Wade in January and make it the law of the land.
Biden, like many Democrats, said the midterm elections were a battle for democracy, declaring that “more than 300 election deniers” were seeking office, including Moores GOP rival, Dan Cox.
Biden said that to Cox, “patriotism means putting on a baseball cap, inviting people to attack the Capitol. You cant be pro-American and pro-insurrection, its real simple.
These election deniers are not only trying to deny you your right to vote, theyre trying to deny you your right to have your vote counted, Biden said. “We know in our bones our democracy is at risk, and we know that this is your moment to protect it.”
Supreme Court Turns Away Gop Challenge To Michigan Maps
The Supreme Court on Monday turned away a Republican challenge to congressional district maps in Michigan that are being used for this year’s election.
A brief order noted that the case is moot because the election is already underway with early voters having cast their ballots. A three-judge panel had upheld the maps in an April ruling, allowing them to be used this year.
The challenge brought by a group of Republican voters argued that the maps drawn by the state’s independent redistricting commission were unlawful because the population deviation between districts was too large.
The redistricting commission’s lawyers told the court that the case was moot because the plaintiffs had been seeking to block use of the maps in the 2022 election.
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Georgia County Sued For Not Sending Absentee Ballots
Summer Concepcion
Cobb County, Georgia, is facing a lawsuit to have it send absentee ballots overnight to hundreds of voters from the county after civil rights groups and voters alleged election officials failed to mail them out.
The lawsuit, filed Sunday by several voters and the Cobb County Democracy Center, an advocacy group, seeks to move the deadline for ballots to be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, per Georgia law, to Nov. 14 the same deadline for absentee voters in the military and overseas.
Under Georgia law, Board of Election officials are required to send out absentee ballots within three business days of processing an application. But Cobb County elections officials allegedly failed to send requested absentee ballots to more than a thousand voters who requested them weeks ago.
Judge Blocks Arizona County’s Plan To Hand
The Associated Press
PHOENIX A judge on Monday blocked a rural Arizona countys plan to conduct a full hand-count of ballots in the election a measure requested by Republican officials who expressed unfounded concerns that vote-counting machines are untrustworthy.
Pima County Superior Court Judge Casey F. McGinley ruled after a full-day hearing Friday, during which opponents presented their case and called witnesses. An appeal is likely.
McGinley said the county board of supervisors overstepped its legal authority by ordering the county recorder to count all the ballots cast in the election that concludes Tuesday rather than the small sample required by state law.
The opponents who sued to stop the proposed hand-count a group called the Arizona Alliance for Retired Americans argued that state law allows only a small hand-count of early ballots to ensure the counting machines are accurate. Members argued that a last-minute change would create chaos and that it could delay certification of the election results. Cochise County Elections Director Lisa Marra also opposed the plan for the expanded count, testifying that it could delay results and imperil ballot security.
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New Warnock Ad Features Top Georgia Republicans Criticizing Walker
Sahil Kapur and Dan Gallo
ATLANTA A new TV ad released by Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., is an appeal to conflicted Republicans in the state, featuring two top state GOP leaders criticizing his opponent.
Republicans are speaking out about Herschel Walkers history of violence, a narrator says in the ad, which began airing in Georgia on Saturday, according to a spokesperson with the Warnock campaign.
The ad then shows Georgia’s Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan saying in a TV interview: Herschel Walker hasnt earned my respect or my vote.
GOP Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, who ran against Walker in the primary, discusses an allegation from Walker’s ex-wife. “If you held a gun to your wife’s head and threatened to blow it off. You’re a bad man,” adding “that Georgians deserve better.”
Walker spokesman Will Kiley responded: Raphael Warnock is desperate to save his failing campaign. Warnock has wasted millions of dollars smearing Herschel and it isnt working. Every poll shows that Warnock has failed. If he cant use his campaigns money responsibly, how can we trust him with ours?
Arizona’s Maricopa County Is Unlikely To Report Final Election Results Until Friday Official Says
PHOENIX Election officials in Arizona’s most populous county said Monday that they don’t anticipate having the election results finalized until Friday.
The warning came as candidates make their final push on the campaign trail and voters say they are increasingly concerned about violence and misinformation on Election Day.
“Under Arizona law, we’re not going to have final results on election night,” Bill Gates, chairman of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, told reporters.
“The problem is that people out in social media and elsewhere will take the fact that we don’t have final results on election night or early the next day as somehow proof of fraud or allowing that people can start rigging the election or something like that and that’s simply not the case,” he added.
The timing is due, in part, by mail-in voting and the county’s extensive signature verification protocol, Gates said. Officials will start to process mail-in ballots Wednesday, and expect to have between 95% and 99% of ballots counted by Friday. Day-of votes will be reported after polls close at 8 p.m. local time Tuesday.
As of Monday morning, Maricopa County has received more than 974,700 early voting packets and have verified more than 960,000 of those ballots, according to the county recorder’s office.
“We want to get it right,” Gates said. “It is no way an indication of incompetence or fraud.”
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Bill Clinton Campaigns In Support Of Democratic Congressional Candidates
Clinton credited the GOP for being hard to beat in a bumper sticker campaign at an afternoon rally for Michelle Vallejo, the Democratic candidate in Texas 15th Congressional District.
Vallejo is one of three South Texas Democrats locked in highly competitive congressional races with Republicans who are Latina.
Trump Stumping For Rubio Repeats View That Us Is ‘a Failing Nation’
Dennis Romero
Former President Donald Trump continued to campaign for Republican candidates vying for office in Tuesday’s midterm election, and he continued to present a vision of America as Armageddon without his leadership.
Trump’s appearance Sunday at a rally in Miami to support the reelection of a onetime foe, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, felt like a campaign stop for Trump himself, although he has yet to officially announce his 2024 intentions.
Trump focused on President Joe Biden, calling him “the worst president in the history of our country,” and describing him as having “cognitive” issues.
He said, “We are a country in decline. We are a failing nation.”
Trump, as he as often has, obliterated the boundaries between fact and fiction, saying the nation has access to an “unlimited amount of gasoline,” infinite fossil fuel, and claiming an evolving proposal to limit fossil fuels and encourage renewable sources of energy, the so-called Green New Deal, would “lead to our total destruction.”
The former president described catastrophic crime under Biden. He singled out justice reform advocates’ desire for bail equivalency for rich and poor, something Trump describes as allowing criminals to return to crime hours after being jailed. He also said packs of criminals are “allowed” to kill and rob retail workers.
At the same time, Trump said, the nation has become “hostile to liberty, fortune, and fame.”
And, he said, “We are a nation that no longer has a fair and free press.”
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How Trump Voted 2016
Biden singled out Trumps voting history in 2020, but we decided to look back at his voting habits back to the 2016 general election. We contacted a spokesperson for the New York City Board of Elections to ask questions about Trumps voting history, but did not hear back by deadline. However, we found news reports showing that sometimes as a New York voter, Trump cast an absentee ballot.
2018: In the midterm elections, Trump voted absentee, a White House spokesperson told reporters.
Many high-ranking officials in the Trump administration or the campaign voted by mail in 2018 or in recent years prior, including Vice President Mike Pence, Attorney General Bill Barr, Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany and campaign manager Brad Parscale, according to The Washington Post.
2017: The New York Daily News reported that Trump filled out an absentee ballot for the mayoral election and checked a box on an application stating he would be absent from the city on Election Day. The newspaper found that Trumps ballot application listed his birthday as July but it is actually June 14, 1946. NY1 reported that Trump and his wife Melania authorized a campaign staffer to pick up the ballots for them.
2016: Trump voted in person in the November election at Manhattans Public School 59, blocks from Trump Tower, where he lived.
“At least you can say the Trumpster doesnt give up,” Trump says. “Youve gotta vote.” “Access Hollywood” reported that Trump cast a provisional ballot.
Voting Patterns In The 2020 Election
The 2020 election featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts. The gender gap in the 2020 election was narrower than it had been in 2016 as Democrats made gains among men and Republicans made gains among women. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 percentage points while Hillary Clinton won women by 15 points . In the 2018 election, Democrats substantially narrowed the gap with men while maintaining an 18-point lead among women. In the 2020 election, men again divided nearly evenly , while Bidens advantage narrowed to 11 points among women .
Similarly, as Biden increased his level of support among White men in the 2020 election relative to Clintons in 2016, Trump gained among White women, which had the effect of further narrowing the gender gap among White voters. In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points . That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 . White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 , favored him in 2020 .
Biden received the support of 92% of Black voters, nearly the same as Clinton received in 2016 and Democratic candidates for the U.S. House received in 2018.
Party and ideology
Age and generation
Geography
Religion
White non-evangelical Protestants voted for Trump over Biden by a 14-point margin , while Black Protestants were an overwhelmingly Democratic group .
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What You Need To Know About The Election
US voters on Tuesday will elect their representatives in Congress. All of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives up for grabs, as well as 35 seats in the Senate.
Even with people voting in all 50 states, just a handful of battleground elections will likely determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the House of Representatives and Senate.
If the Democrats lose control of one or both houses of Congress, Biden will unlikely be able to pass much, if any, legislation in the second half of his term due to long-standing Republican policy to block nearly all bills coming from a Democratic White House.
In addition to the congressional races, 36 states are electing their governors.
jsi/rs
Arizona’s Katie Hobbs Says She ‘absolutely’ Expects To Be Targeted By Election Deniers Again
TUCSON, Ariz. The memory of Donald Trump supporters surrounding her home after President Joe Biden won in 2020 has stuck with Arizona Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who’s up against Trump-endorsed Kari Lake for governor in the midterm elections.
After the last presidential election, supporters of Trump chanted “we are watching you” outside Hobbs’ home, made death threats and even doxxed her private address.
Hobbs said in an interview after a campaign rally in Tucson that she is “absolutely” worried she could become a target again for people who refuse to accept the results of Tuesday’s election.
Hobbs also said her office is closely monitoring voting locations across the state to stifle possible intimation tactics.
My plan is to work with my office, make sure that every eligible voter is able to cast their ballot and that were problem-solving any issues that come up, she said. Were continuing to monitor for security issues personally and in our office and in voting locations across the state to make sure that voters can be free of intimidation.
A federal judge last month a group from monitoring outdoor ballot boxes in Maricopa County, where watchers have shown up armed and in ballistic vests. Local and federal law enforcement said they were alarmed by reports of people, including some who were masked, watching 24-hour ballot boxes in Arizonas most populous county.
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Trump To Make ‘big Announcement’ On November 15
In the state of Ohio, Trump urged supporters to vote Republican, as his supporters chanted back “USA! USA! USA!” while the former president talked up the size of the crowd.
And then he went on to say he will be making a “very big announcement” next week, with the former president expected to jump into the race for the White House in 2024.
“Not to detract from tomorrow’s very important, even critical election… I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida,” he told a cheering crowd in Ohio on the eve of US polls which will determine control of Congress.
The comments were the closest the Republican politician has come to confirming his intention to run, building on his message last week that he “will very, very, very probably do it again.”
“This is one of the most important races in America,” Fetterman told a crowd on Monday outside a union hall near a steel plate mill in Coatesville, some 40 miles west of Philadelphia. “Dr. Oz has spent over $27 million of his own money. But this seat isn’t for sale.”
Image: Michael Conroy/AP/picture alliance
