The Philosophy Behind Republican Economic Policy
Republicans advocate supply-side economics that primarily benefits businesses and investors. This theory states that tax cuts on businesses allow them to hire more workers, in turn increasing demand and growth. In theory, the increased revenue from a stronger economy offsets the initial revenue loss over time.
Republicans advocate the right to pursue prosperity without government interference. They argue this is achieved by self-discipline, enterprise, saving, and investing.
Republicans business-friendly approach leads most people to believe that they are better for the economy. A closer look reveals that Democrats are, in many respects, actually better.
Democrats Odds Of Keeping The House Are Slimming Fast
The Democratic House majority emerged from the 2020 election so bruised and emaciated that experts gave it less than three years to live.
In defiance of polling and pundit expectations, Republicans netted 11 House seats in 2020, leaving Nancy Pelosis caucus perilously thin. Since World War II, the presidents party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections. If Democrats lose more than four in 2022, they will forfeit congressional control.
If the headwinds facing House Democrats have been clear since November, the preconditions for overcoming those headwinds have also been discernible: The party needed Joe Biden to stay popular, the Democratic base to stay mobilized and, above all, for Congressional Democrats to level the playing field by banning partisan redistricting.
A little over 100 days into Bidens presidency, Democrats are hitting only one of those three marks.
Historically, theres been a strong correlation between the sitting presidents approval rating and his partys midterm performance. Only twice in the last three decades has the presidents party gained seats in a midterm election in both cases, their approval ratings exceeded 60 percent.
The party that controls the presidency tends to gets less popular as time goes on, and future declines are surprisingly correlated with first quarter polling.Many reasons that this cycle might be different, but so far public polling points to Dems getting 48% on election day.
Iowa And Montana Senate Races Toss
With polls closing at 10 p.m. ET, CBS News estimates the closely-watched Iowa and Montana Senate races are both toss-ups. If the Democratic candidates defeated the Republican incumbents, it would bring Democrats closer to gaining the majority in the Senate.
In Iowa, Republican Senator Joni Ernst is being challenged by Democrat Theresa Greenfield in an unexpectedly close race. Mr. Trump won Iowa by 10 percentage points in 2016, raising concerns among Republicans about the tightness of a race Ernst was initially expected to win. Greenfield has raised far more than Ernst $28.7 million in the third quarter and she could end up outspending Ernst by more than $25 million by Election Day.
In Montana, first-term Republican Senator Steve Daines faces a challenge from the two-term governor of his state, Steve Bullock. Like Hickenlooper, Bullock briefly ran for president before ending his bid and entering the Senate race in March 2020. Bullock won reelection in Montana as a Democrat in 2016 even as Donald Trump won the state by about 20 points.
Meanwhile, the South Carolina Senate race has gone from a “toss-up” to “likely Republican.”
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Us Election : Democrats Hopes Of Gaining Control Of Senate Fade
Democrats are rapidly losing hope of gaining control of the US Senate after underperforming in key states.
Controlling the Senate would have allowed them to either obstruct or push through the next presidents agenda.
The party had high hopes of gaining the four necessary seats in Congresss upper chamber, but many Republican incumbents held their seats.
The Democrats are projected to retain their majority in the lower chamber, the House, but with some key losses.
With many votes still to be counted, the final outcome for both houses may not be known for some time.
Among the disappointments for the Democrats was the fight for the seat in Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins staved off a fierce challenge from Democrat Sara Gideon.
However, the night did see a number of firsts including the first black openly LGBTQ people ever elected to Congress and the first openly transgender state senator.
The balance of power in the Senate may also change next January. At least one run-off election is due to be held that month in Georgia, since neither candidate has been able to secure more than 50% of votes.
This years congressional election is running alongside the battle for the White House between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
Of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs, 23 were Republican-held and 12 were Democrat.
Senators serve six-year terms, and every two years a third of the seats are up for re-election.
Democrats Also Fell Short On Many Offensive Targets
House Democrats set out on an ambitious agenda to flip many Republican-controlled seats, particularly in Texas and in many suburban districts around the country.
But Democrats have failed, so far, to flip a single GOP-held seat other than Georgia’s 7th Congressional District, located in the Atlanta suurbs, and two North Carolina seats that they were virtually guaranteed to flip because of court-ordered redistricting, according to DDHQ projections.
Democrats will not pick up competitive US House seats in Texas’ 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, or 24th congressional districts, DDHQ projected.
While Biden is projected to carry Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District’s sole Electoral College vote, the Democratic candidate Kara Eastman failed in her second bid to unseat the district’s congressional representative, Don Bacon, in this Omaha-based seat.
Also in the Midwest, GOP Rep. Ann Wagner won reelection in her district located in suburban St. Louis, over the Democratic candidate Jill Schupp. The Republican Victoria Spartz defeated the Democrat Christina Hale in the open race for Indiana’s 5th District, a wealthy seat in suburban Indianapolis that Democrats saw as a possible pickup opportunity.
In Michigan, the Republican Peter Meijer defeated the Democrat Hillary Scholten to succeed the retiring Rep. Justin Amash. And GOP Rep. Steve Chabot held off a challenge from the Democrat Kate Schroder in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, located in the Cincinnati area.
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Poll: Republicans Set To Win House Back In Massive Landslide
Republicans are set to win back the House in a historic landslide in 2022, according to a poll conducted by NBC News.
Based on all factors, youd have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022, poll tracker David Wasserman told NBC.
Democrats best hope is that Bidens approval rating stays above 50 percent and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.
Bigleaguepolitics.com reports: The NBC report cites the all-too-predictable trend of the presidents party losing House seats in midterm elections, Democrats choosing not to run for reelection in some cases, and Republicans reaping the benefits of increased online donations, which are now on par with those of Democrats.
It is early, too early, to guarantee the Democrats loss of their slim 220-212 House majority. Voters wont hit the polls for almost 15 months, and things often have a way of changing on a dime in the world of politics. But the early signs certainly arent encouraging for the Democrats, especially as President Joe Bidens approval rating has taken a hit in recent weeks. American voters are being bombarded with images of a completely bungled withdrawal of Afghanistan and headlines about increased COVID hospitalizations and deaths. Inflation is also becoming a growing concern each month, contrary to the hopes of the Federal Reserve, and the crisis at the southern border shows no signs of abating.
Balance Of Power: 2022 Senate Races
If Democrats want to win the Senate again, they need to win the four competitive seats they currently hold Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That or augment any loss with a gain in any of their three competitive targets Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or North Carolina.
This Senate preview still holds up, but the shorter version is Democrats are easily favored in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. They should also win New Hampshire if Chris Sununu doesnt run .
The thing is, theyre also favored to win in Pennsylvania, where they have a strong field of primary candidates and where Joe Biden won.
They have to be no worse than, and admittedly probably better than, a tossup in Wisconsin, where Republicans have candidate issues and Democrats have a strong likely nominee.
So even if New Hampshire goes Republican because of some local candidate factors, Democrats are in a good spot to win the Senate again.
That means if youre trying to make a bet, you can essentially box out two of four combinations where the GOP wins the Senate, and focus your attention on the two remaining options, if youre looking for the values.
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Betting On Major Domestic Policy Programs
“We’re making a bet on substance,” Maloney says, before adding a colorful adage: “What’s the old saying any jackass can kick down a barn, it takes a carpenter to build one. It’s harder to build it than to kick it down. And so we’re the party that’s going to build the future.”
That future includes proposals to combat climate change overhaul immigration laws massively invest in traditional infrastructure like roads, bridges and expanded access to broadband, along with investments in affordable child care and early childhood education and provide an expanded child tax credit with payments that top out at $3,600 a year per child.
Tens of millions of American families are already starting to receive those direct cash payments.
“That’s a huge thing for a family trying to pay for the kids’ basketball shoes or keep food in the fridge till Saturday when it’s been running out on Thursday,” Maloney says.
The monthly credit is scheduled to last one year, but some Democrats have already discussed making it permanent.
“No Democratic majority, no Democratic president, has made this much progress in a long time,” Maloney says.
Cal Cunningham Concedes North Carolina Senate Race
Democrat Cal Cunningham conceded in the North Carolina Senate race on Tuesday, saying in a statement that he had called Republican incumbent Senator Thom Tillis to congratulate him on his victory.
“I just called Senator Tillis to congratulate him on winning re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate and wished him and his family the best in their continued service in the months and years ahead,” Cunningham said. “The voters have spoken and I respect their decision.”
CBS News projects that Tillis has won the race, after Cunningham’s concession. Tillis led Cunningham by nearly 100,000 votes as of Tuesday. The presidential race in North Carolina is still too close to call, although President Trump is currently in the lead. The full results of the election in North Carolina are unlikely to be known until later this week, as the deadline in the state to receive absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day is November 12.
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What Difference Does The New House Majority Make
The Democrats took control of the House, having gained more than the 23 seats they need to take over the lower chamber of Congress. Americans voted for all 435 seats in the House.
The Democrats could now launch investigations into Mr Trump’s administration and business affairs, from tax returns to potential conflicts of interest.
They could also more effectively block his legislative plans, notably his signature promise to build a wall along the border with Mexico.
But analysts say dealing with a hostile House may suit the president, who is known both for his partisan style and ability to switch positions. They say he could either choose to accuse the Democrats of obstruction or try to reach deals to get legislation through.
Female candidates performed particularly well. Two 29-year-old Democrats – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Abby Finkenauer – are due to be the youngest women ever to win House seats.
Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib are the first Muslim women and Sharice Davids and Debra Haaland the first Native American women to be elected to Congress. All are Democrats.
Incumbents Defeated In Primary Elections
The following table lists incumbents defeated in 2020 House primary elections or conventions.
|Incumbents defeated in primaries|
In the 2018 midterm elections, 378 U.S. House incumbents ran for re-election. This was the lowest number of U.S. House incumbents seeking re-election since 1992.
Thirty-four incumbentsâ9 percentâlost their re-election bids. That included two Democrats and 32 Republicans. This was the highest percentage of incumbents defeated since 2012, when 10.2 percent were not re-elected.
The following data for congressional re-election rates from 2000 to 2016 was reported in Vital Statistics, a joint research project of the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute. Find the original datasets and methodology here. Data for the 2018 election came from Ballotpedia.
|Defeated U.S. House incumbents by party, 2000-2018|
|U.S. House incumbents retired, defeated, or reelected, 2000-2018|
|Year||Percentage of those seeking reelection|
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Tie Votes In The Senate Are Broken By The Vice President
A Senate split evenly between Democrats and Republicans raises the potential for tie votes. Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution states that, The Vice President of the United States shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote, unless they be equally divided.
The vice president may decline to vote on a tied matter. In recent history, the vice presidents presence in the Senate is a rare occurrence, but in an evenly divided Senate, he or she may need to break tie votes more often if the parties cannot agree. Senator Harris, the vice president elect, may not be getting far away from Capitol Hill after all.
Poll Shows Manchin Wildly Out Of Step With West Virginia Voters On Voting Rights Bill
A hail fellow well met
A hail fellow well met
roguenuke said:I think this is the most likely answer just in terms of the Senate races .The GOP seats are more likely to be in danger here than the Dem seats that are up but that doesnt mean that there still isnt risk, especially being so close.
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Initial Battleground Divided Between Gop
ANALYSIS We knew it even before the runoffs in Georgia were finished: Control of the Senate would be on the ballot once again in 2022. Every vote in the chamber will matter over the next two years and every seat will matter in two years when voters decide, again, which party will be in the majority.
After Democrats take control, Republicans running in what will be President Joe Bidens midterm will need to gain just a single seat from an initial battlefield of eight states. Those vulnerable seats are split evenly between those currently held by Republicans and those held by Democrats . Two of those Democrats just won special elections and will be fighting for full terms in 2022.
An eight-state battlefield is relatively small compared to 2020, when there were at least 13 states hosting competitive races. Depending on the political environment, circumstances and party recruitment, the battlefield could expand to include another couple of GOP seats, including Iowa and Ohio or a Democratic-held seat in Colorado .
Overall, this class of senators includes 14 seats currently held by Democrats and 20 seats held by Republicans.
As with every cycle, other seats could be added to the docket with special elections in the event senators leave because of appointments to the administration, death, or resignation.
Nathan L. Gonzales is an elections analyst for CQ Roll Call.
Th Congress 2001 And 2002
- White House: Republican
- House: Republicans held 221 seats, Democrats held 212 seats there were two independents
- Senate: Republicans held 50 seats, Democrats held 48 seats there were two independents
*Notes: This session of the Senate began with the chamber evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. But on June 6, 2001, U.S. Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont switched from Republican to independent and began caucusing with the Democrats, giving the Democrats a one-seat advantage. Later on Oct. 25, 2002, Democratic U.S. Sen. Paul D. Wellstone died and independent Dean Barkley was appointed to fill the vacancy. On Nov. 5, 2002, Republican U.S. Sen. James Talent of Missouri replaced Democratic U.S. Sen. Jean Carnahan, shifting the balance back to the Republicans.
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Democrats Hopes Of Flipping Deep
WASHINGTONHouse Republicans stacked up wins in the suburbs, diminishing the ability of Democrats to add to their majority in the 2020 election.
Republicans held on to close-fought races in suburban districts that Democrats had targeted, re-electing GOP incumbents and winning some competitive open seats on Wednesday morning. Two Democratic incumbents in Florida also lost re-election as vote counting continued in many tight races.
Democrats Keep House Majority But ‘republicans Defied The Odds’
The Democrats could wind up with the slimmest House majority in 20 years.
Nancy Pelosi praises Democrats for retaining the House majority
The Democrats will keep their majority in the House of Representatives, but after all the votes are counted, they could wind up with the slimmest House majority in 20 years.
The Democrats gained a majority in the House following the 2018 election in which they won 41 seats. This was the largest gain for the political party since the 1974 election, in which they gained 49.
Some of the popular freshman Democrats who came into office in 2018, including New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar, have been elected for a second term.
But Republicans appear set to make some gains, winning nearly every tossup and picking up at least six seats based on calls of races by The Associated Press.
House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy tweeted Wednesday morning, “Republicans defied the odds and grew our party last night.”
He also tweeted to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, “You’ve been put on notice.”
Among the Republican victories is , who won Georgia’s conservative 14th Congressional District after publicly supporting the fringe conspiracy theory known as QAnon.
In videos unearthed by POLITICO, Greene is also heard spouting racist, Islamophobic and sexist views.
ABC News’ Quinn Scanlan and Mariam Khan contributed to this report.
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