Monday, November 28, 2022

Voter Turnout Democrat Vs Republican

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% Of Young Americans Favor Some Form Of Government Action On Student Loan Debt But Only 38% Favor Total Debt Cancellation

Elections Ontario records lowest voter turnout in history
  • Though nearly nine-in-ten young Americans under 30 agree that action is needed, young Americans had no clear consensus on a path forward related to student loan debt. A plurality favors full debt cancellation , while 27% favor government assisting with repayment options without any debt cancellation, and 21% favor debt cancellation for those with the most need. Only 13% believe the government should not change current policy. Since 2020, support for full cancellation increased 5 percentage points, while preference for the government helping with repayment decreased 8 points.

  • Opinions on this issue do not differ significantly among likely voters in the 2022 midterms compared to the broader population of 18-to-29-year-olds as 83% of young likely voters express a preference for government action, including 79% of those not in college now, and without a degree.

  • Among Democrats likely to vote in November:

  • 43% favor canceling student loan debt for everyone

  • 29% favor canceling student loan debt for only those most in need

  • 19% favor not canceling debt, but helping with repayment options

  • 4% favor not changing the current policy

  • For Republicans likely to vote in November:

  • 13% favor canceling student loan debt for everyone

  • 11% favor canceling student loan debt for only those most in need

  • 39% favor not canceling debt, but helping with repayment options

  • 36% favor not changing the current policy

  • For independents likely to vote in November:

  • 14% favor not changing the current policy

  • This Is Not What Was Expected

    Making the shocking disparity in turnout even more compelling in light of the faulty predictions Monday was an analysis from Fake News MSNBC showing that Democratic turnout was down roughly 27 percent compared to 2018s election while Republican turnout was comparatively up by 28 percent over the prior gubernatorial/midterm elections.

    NBCs Steve Kornacki: In Ohio, Democrats saw turnout DOWN 27% in their primary relative to 2018. On the Republican side, turnout UP 28%.

    RNC Research May 4, 2022

    The Columbus Dispatch also reported on Tuesdays turnout disparity and put forward a few excuses that were immediately floated by Democrats as explanations for the lack of an anticipated wave of Democratic voters energized by the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion.

    Those excuses included a possible lack of enthusiasm for a continuation of Democratic policies as well as a lack of competitive races on the Democratic side of the open primary races. Another possible theory was that some left-leaning independents and Democratic voters cast ballots for Republican races instead of their own in an effort to manipulate the results and pick GOP candidates they believed would be vulnerable in the November general election.

    Turnout By Sex And Age

    In 2020, 68% of women eligible to vote reported voting higher than the 65% turnout for men.


    In the 2016 election, 63% of women and 59% of men reported voting.

    Voting rates were higher in 2020 than in 2016 across all age groups, with turnout by voters ages 18-34 increasing the most between elections:

    • For citizens ages 18-34, 57% voted in 2020, up from 49% in 2016.
    • In the 35-64 age group, turnout was 69%, compared to 65% in 2016.
    • In the 65 and older group, 74% voted in 2020, compared to 71% in 2016.

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    With The Population Diversifying Non

    The voter population for presidential elections continues to change in its demographic makeup. This relates both to turnout and to the changing shifts in the nations overall population. Because of the rising growth rates of nonwhite race and ethnic groups nationally and the increased educational attainment of younger voters, the share of all voters identifying as non-college white continues to shrink. Thus, for the first time in a presidential election, white voters without college degrees comprised less than two-fifths of the voter population.

    These changes look quite different from 2004, when non-college white voters comprised more than half of the voter population and nonwhite minorities comprised only one-fifth. Since then, the formers share dropped to 39.7% the share of white college-educated voters increased modestly, from 27.7% to 31.3%. and the share of nonwhite voters rose to 29%, almost equaling that of white college graduates.


    The shift in the race-ethnic makeup of the populationespecially the younger populationis evident when looking at voters in the past five presidential elections. During this period, younger generations of voting-age citizens have become more racially diverse. In 2020, for the first time, at least 10% of the total voter population identified as Latino or Hispanic, as did 15% of voters below age 40. The white share of the under-age-40 voter population declined by 10 points from 2004 to 2020, to 64% .

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    Y Groups Feeling More Enthusiastic About Voting Than Usual

    Stark Trends Towards Higher Republican Turnout, Lower Democratic ...

    All three party groups — Republicans, independents and Democrats — are showing record enthusiasm for voting this year compared with the 1994-2014 trend, potentially reflecting a more highly charged political atmosphere than in the past.

    Enthusiasm about voting is not so much an indicator of what the turnout rate will be as it is a potential clue to which party is likely to fare better in the election. Gallup analysis has found that the more enthusiastic party is not necessarily the one with higher turnout but does tend to correspond with the party that ultimately wins the most seats — indicating that partisans have an advance sense of the direction in which a given election is headed. This was borne out in 1994, 2010 and 2014, when Republicans led Democrats in enthusiasm by eight or more points and enjoyed double-digit seat gains in the House, winning or maintaining party control of that body.

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    Large Proportions Of Minority Groups In The United States Representing Race Religion Politics And Sexuality Feel Under Attack In America

    • Three-fifths of young Black Americans believe people of their racial background are under a lot of attack in America, 43% of AAPI youth, 37% of Hispanics, and 19% of whites feel the same. Compared to Spring 2017, the percent of young Blacks who feel under a lot of attack for their race has stayed relatively constant , and for young Hispanics, the proportion who felt under a lot of attack for their race decreased from 46% to 37%.

    • Despite small sample sizes, we find that young Muslims, Jews, and Evangelical Christians are more likely to say people with their religious beliefs are under attack a lot when compared to Protestants and Catholics.

    • As noted above, 45% of LGBTQ-identifying youth feel like people with their sexual orientation are under attack a lot.

    • Nearly half of young Republicans believe that people who hold their political views are under attack a lot in America, compared to 24% of Democrats who feel the same way.

    Democrats And Republicans Agree That High Turnout Hurts The Gop But What If They’re Wrong

    For two decades, many top Democratic strategists have supported the idea that demography is destiny and that high turnout will automatically benefit their party at the ballot box.

    As such, theyve increasingly designed political strategies around the idea that if they get enough voters to the polls especially the young and people of color they can win elections and create a permanent governing majority.

    Republicans, for their part, have also spent the last 20 years believing that high turnout and immigration rates hurt the GOP. Last year, then-President Donald Trump warned that high voter turnout would doom Republicans. And in the last few months, Fox News personalities have told their viewers that immigrants are going to replace native-born Americans and dilute their share of the vote.

    And now, in Washington, members of Congress are locked in a bitter struggle over legislation to expand voting rights that is straining the Senates ability to function.

    The apocalyptic language and heated tempers of the voting wars, however, are based to some degree on a myth. Theres little evidence that when more people vote it helps Democrats more than Republicans, according to two academics who have studied the impact of turnout on election outcomes.


    These short-term forces, they contend, produce shifts in the decisions of who consistently show up for elections. They have an even larger effect on those who are not consistent .

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    The Parties Coalitions 2018 Vs 2016

    People who voted for Democratic vs. Republican candidates for the House in 2018 were quite different demographically, in ways consistent with previous elections including 2016. The Republican coalition is more likely to be older, male, White, somewhat less educated and Protestant or Catholic.

    In 2016, men made up only 39% of Hillary Clintons voters. This share grew to 45% for Democratic House candidates in 2018. But other than a slight increase in the share of Republican voters ages 65 and older, there was little change in the respective age profiles of the two parties voters. Nearly half of those who voted for Democratic candidates were under 50 years of age, compared with almost a third of Republican voters.


    Non-Hispanic White adults made up nearly nine-in-ten Republican voters , compared with just two-thirds of Democratic voters. Only 1% of voters who chose Republican House candidates were Black . Hispanics were 11% of the Democratic voter coalition, compared with 5% for the Republican coalition.

    Half of Democratic voters in 2018 had a four-year college degree or more, compared with 35% of Republican voters. Voters with postgraduate degrees made up nearly a quarter of the Democratic electorate, compared with 13% among Republican voters. Combining this with the racial profile of the parties supporters, 57% of GOP voters were White adults with no college degree, compared with 28% among Democratic voters.

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    Q& A: What California’s low voter turnout so far means for primary

    Republican primary voters showed up in droves to take part in Tuesdays contests, a good early sign for GOP hopes to regain the House and Senate this fall.

    As of midday Wednesday, Republican voters made up 54.9% of the turnout in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania, according to data compiled by JMC Analytics & Polling.

    That figure jumps to 60.9% of turnout when all 10 states that have held primaries so far this year are included.


    In every state where Ive been measuring turnout changes relative to previous midterms, Im seeing a clear advantage on the Republican side, JMC Analytics founder told The Post, adding that the picture was the exact opposite in 2018, when Democrats took control of the House with a net gain of 41 seats.

    While Couvillon emphasized that 10 primary elections are not super representative and noted that while there are still 174 days before voters go to the polls Nov. 8, the current data suggests states that are swinging and are Republican are going to move far to the right.

    So far in 2022, overall voter turnout is up 13% from 2018, JMC Analytics has found. That number is driven by an approximate 30% increase in Republican voter turnout, while Democratic turnout is down 6%.

    Democratic turnout also dropped 29% from four years ago in the former battleground state of Ohio.

    Other Democrats, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren , have warned the party could lose its majority absent drastic action.


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    Where The 2018 Democratic Advantage Came From: 2016 Nonvoters Higher Turnout By Clinton Voters And Vote Switching

    Midterm elections consistently experience lower turnout than presidential elections. Yet while the 2018 turnout of 49% did not match turnout in the 2016 presidential election , it was far higher than usual. Midway through President Trumps first term in office, both Democrats and Republicans were energized. A large majority of people who voted in 2016 also voted in 2018. But somewhat more of Clintons 2016 voters than Trumps 2016 voters turned out in 2018. Overwhelming majorities of both Trumps and Clintons 2016 voters remained loyal to their respective parties in their 2018 U.S. House vote, though Clintons 2016 voters who turned out in 2018 were slightly more loyal to Democratic 2018 candidates than Trumps 2016 voters were to 2018 GOP candidates . Among the share who voted for someone other than Trump or Clinton in 2016, 71% voted in 2018. These voters favored Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by a margin of 49% to 37%.

    Voters in 2018 who did not vote in 2016 were a small group but an important part of why the Democratic Party made gains. Among the 2016 nonvoters who voted in 2018, Democratic House candidates led Republican House candidates by a more than a two-to-one margin.

    Of everyone eligible by citizenship and age to vote in 2018, 44% voted in both the 2016 and 2018 elections 36% voted in neither 14% were drop-off voters and a small share were new voters voting in 2018 but not in 2016.

    Nearly Half Of Young Americans Report That Politics And News Media Have Had Negative Impacts On Their Mental Health Feelings About School And Work Are More Positive

    • Nearly half of 18-to-29-year-olds report that politics has had a negative impact on their mental health and only 13% report a positive impact. Among those who identify as LGBTQ, the rate is nearly two-thirds , while 42% for straight youth. Young Americans who do not identify with a major party are more likely than others to say that politics has had a very negative impact on their mental health.

    • Similarly, 46% report that the news media have a negative impact on their mental health.

    • Nearly two-in-five report that social media has a negative impact on their mental health, while 22% report a positive impact and 39% report no effect. There is no statistical difference based on age, but we found that young women were somewhat more likely to cite negative mental health effects of social media than young men .

    • On the other hand, 45% report that work has had a positive impact on their mental health and only 21% report a negative impact. The fact that over three-quarters of young Americans find that work does not have a negative impact on their mental health accords with a finding from the Fall 2021 survey, in which 72% of respondents said that, outside of compensation, they find some or a lot of meaning in their work.

    • High school experience, while nearly as likely to have a positive impact, is more polarizing: 42% report that school has had a positive impact but 34% report that it has had a negative one.

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    About Half Of Young Americans With Recent Thoughts Of Self

    • Fifty-seven percent of whites suffering from thoughts of self-harm have access to support or resources, while only 40% of Blacks say the same.

    • Among those suffering from bouts of depression or hopelessness, 61% say they have access to support, but that number dips to 48% for Blacks, compared to 68% of young whites.

    • When young Americans suffering from depression or hopelessness were asked their interest in several potential support services and resources, we found the most interest in spending time outside , support of family and friends , and sports or exercise . Additionally, we found that nearly two-fifths were interested in professional therapy, followed by meditation , prescription medication , church or religion , alcohol or recreational drugs , and support by authority figures .

    Democrats Leading On Key Thought Indicator

    DownWithTyranny!: The Democratic Party, Donald Trump &  the 2016 Turnout ...

    Republicans typically enjoy a comfortable lead over Democrats in giving “quite a lot of thought” to midterm elections — a key historical Gallup indicator of turnout propensity. But that GOP advantage is not evident this year, as 55% of Republicans vs. 62% of Democrats say they have given the election quite a lot of thought.

    In fact, Republicans’ seven-percentage-point deficit in thought represents the only time they have trailed Democrats on Gallup’s final pre-election reading of this measure in midterm years dating back to 1994.

    Before now, in all but one year, Republicans have led by six to 12 percentage points. The only exception was 2006 — a strong Democratic year — when the Republicans had a mere two-point edge.

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    Early 19th Century: Universal White Male Suffrage

    The gradual expansion of the right to vote from only property-owning men to include all white men over 21 was an important movement in the period from 1800 to 1830. Older states with property restrictions dropped them, namely all but Rhode Island, Virginia and North Carolina by the mid-1820s. No new states had property qualifications, although three had adopted tax-paying qualifications âOhio, Louisiana and Mississippi, of which only in Louisiana were these significant and long-lasting. The process was peaceful and widely supported, except in Rhode Island. In Rhode Island, the Dorr Rebellion of the 1840s demonstrated that the demand for equal suffrage was broad and strong, although the subsequent reform included a significant property requirement for any resident born outside of the United States. However, free black men lost voting rights in several states during this period.


    The fact that a man was now legally allowed to vote did not necessarily mean he routinely voted. He had to be pulled to the polls, which became the most important role of the local parties. These parties systematically sought out potential voters and brought them to the polls. Voter turnout soared during the 1830s, reaching about 80% of the adult male population in the 1840 presidential election. Tax-paying qualifications remained in only five states by 1860 âMassachusetts, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Delaware and North Carolina.

    Higher Turnout Across All Race Groups

    Turnout rates in 2020 were higher than in the 2016 election for non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Asian, and Hispanic race and origin groups.

    The largest increase was for non-Hispanic Asians . Of the non-Hispanic Asian population who were both citizens and of voting age, 59% reported voting in 2020, compared to 49% in 2016.

    Non-Hispanic Asian registration saw a large increase as well: 64%, compared to 56% in 2016. The 2020 election also featured higher turnout rates for:

    • Non-Hispanic Whites: 71% voter turnout, compared to 65% in 2016.
    • Hispanics: 54%, compared to 48% in 2016.
    • Non-Hispanic Blacks: 63%, compared to 60% in 2016. While voter turnout in this group was higher than in 2016, it did not exceed turnout in 2008 .

    In previous elections, non-Hispanic Black voter turnout far exceeded non-Hispanic Asian turnout by 18 percentage points in 2008 and by 20 points in 2012.

    In contrast, non-Hispanic Black voter turnout in 2020 was only 3 percentage points higher than non-Hispanic Asian turnout.

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