House And Senate Odds Preview
In 2020, the market expectation was a Democratic sweep of the three elected positions, and while it took two months and quite a lot of Georgia-based panic, Democrats did sweep the Presidency, Senate control, and House control, albeit by nowhere close to the margins they were expected to. This time around, the question is whether or not the GOP can gain one or both of those chambers again, and whether or not the PredictIt odds for any of the four possible combinations provides any value.
There are four possible combinations either party to control both chambers or one party to control either chamber.
In theory, if these were independent events, any of those four combinations would be equally as likely as each other, but given politics are correlated, you see thats not really the case. A GOP sweep of both chambers is the favorite at $0.45, which makes sense, given the widespread narrative that the GOP are favorites because of history and the way midterms generally go badly for the party of the Presidency.
However, Donald Trump did win Senate seats in his only midterm, and that same historical argument would have suggested Republicans would romp home easily in Georgia in January.
If you are a Democratic optimist, then the $0.29 on split government a Democratic Senate and a Republican House or the $0.21 on Dem unified control might be appealing.
Poll Finds Startling Difference In Vaccinations Among Us Republicans And Democrats
A Washington Post-ABC News poll has found a startling difference between Democrats and Republicans as it relates to COVID-19;vaccination.;The poll found that while 86% of Democrats have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine shot, only 45% of Republicans;have.
In addition, the survey found;that while;only;6% of Democrats said they would;probably;decline;the vaccine, 47% of Republicans;said they;would;probably not;be inoculated.;
The poll also found that;60% of unvaccinated Americans believe the U.S. is;exaggerating;the dangers of;the;COVID-19;delta variant,;while;18% of the unvaccinated say the government is accurately describing the variants risks.
However, 64% of vaccinated Americans believe the government is accurately describing the dangers of the;delta variant.
Iran fighting COVID 5th wave The variant is having a;global impact.;Irans;President;Hassan Rouhani;has warned that the country is on the brink of a fifth wave of;a COVID-19 outbreak.;The;delta variant of the virus, first;identified;in India, is;largely;responsible;for the;rising number of hospitalizations and deaths in Iran, officials say.
All;non-essential businesses have been ordered;closed;in 275 cities, including Tehran, the capital.;Travel has also been restricted between cities that are;experiencing;high infection rates.
Reports say only about 5% of Iranians have been vaccinated.;
Oregon House Republicans Say Theyre At Impasse Over Democrats Redistricting Plan
Oregon lawmakers, shown here during a January 2021 swearing-in ceremony, are set to meet at the Capitol Monday to approve new legislative and congressional district lines that will determine how voters are represented for the next decade in Salem and Washington, D.C. House Republicans’ leader on Thursday said her caucus would not support Democrats’ plans.Brooke Herbert/The Oregonian
Oregon Democrats congressional and legislative redistricting plans set for a vote in next weeks special session face a roadblock in the state House, where Republican Leader Christine Drazan said on Thursday that her caucus is united in its opposition to Democrats proposed maps.
State lawmakers wrapped up four days of lengthy public hearings on their initial congressional and state legislative district proposals Sept. 13, and they are scheduled to meet Monday for a special session to vote on final plans.
Democrats and Republicans privately discussed potential changes to the Democrats proposed maps over the last couple days. But Democrats, who hold supermajorities in both chambers, had not released any final plans for the public to see until Thursday night.
Under Senate Democrats plans, both chambers would likely continue to have Democratic supermajorities, meaning the party would hold at least 60% of the seats in each chamber, even though Joe Biden only claimed 56% of votes Oregonians cast in the 2020 presidential election.
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Y Leaders Of The United States House Of Representatives
Party leaders and whips of the United States House of Representatives, also known as floor leaders, are elected by their respective parties in a closed-door caucus by secret ballot. With the Democrats holding a majority of seats and the Republicans holding a minority, the current leaders are Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Minority Whip Steve Scalise.
Balance Of Power: 2022 Senate Races
If Democrats want to win the Senate again, they need to win the four competitive seats they currently hold Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That or augment any loss with a gain in any of their three competitive targets Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or North Carolina.
This Senate preview still holds up, but the shorter version is Democrats are easily favored in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. They should also win New Hampshire if Chris Sununu doesnt run .
The thing is, theyre also favored to win in Pennsylvania, where they have a strong field of primary candidates and where Joe Biden won.
They have to be no worse than, and admittedly probably better than, a tossup in Wisconsin, where Republicans have candidate issues and Democrats have a strong likely nominee.
So even if New Hampshire goes Republican because of some local candidate factors, Democrats are in a good spot to win the Senate again.
That means if youre trying to make a bet, you can essentially box out two of four combinations where the GOP wins the Senate, and focus your attention on the two remaining options, if youre looking for the values.
Read Also: How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In Senate
The Party Thats Actually Best For The Economy
Many analyses look at which party is best for the economy. A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that Democratic presidents since World War II have performed much better than Republicans. On average, Democratic presidents grew the economy 4.4% each year versus 2.5% for Republicans.
A study by Princeton University economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson found that the economy performs better when the president is a Democrat. They report that by many measures, the performance gap is startlingly large. Between Truman and Obama, growth was 1.8% higher under Democrats than Republicans.
A Hudson Institute study found that the six years with the best growth were evenly split between Republican and Democrat presidents.
Most of these evaluations measure growth during the presidents term in office. But no president has control over the growth added during his first year. The budget for that fiscal year was already set by the previous president, so you should compare the gross domestic product at the end of the presidents last budget to the end of his predecessors last budget.
For Obama, that would be the fiscal year from October 1, 2009, to September 30, 2018. Thats FY 2010 through FY 2017. During that time, GDP increased from $15.6 trillion to $17.7 trillion, or by 14%. Thats 1.7% a year.
The chart below ranks the presidents since 1929 on the average annual increase in GDP.
A president would have better growth if he had no recession.
The Houses Balance Of Power Is Tipped Toward Democrats
The Democrats;have a narrow six-member margin in the current House of Representatives, meaning if just a handful of seats flip, Republicans can regain control of the House.
Democrats;advantage;will grow to seven when Troy Carter is sworn in;to fill a seat in Louisianas delegation left vacant;by Cedric Richmond, who left the House to join the Biden administration as the director of the White House Office of Public Engagement.;
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Census Data Sets Up Redistricting Fight Over Growing Suburbs
The once-a-decade battle over redistricting is set to be a showdown over the suburbs, as new census data showed rapid growth around some of the nations largest cities and shrinking population in many rural counties.
From Texas to Florida, some of the biggest gains reported Thursday came in states where Republicans will control the redistricting process, but often in and around cities where Democrats have been faring well in recent elections.
The new detailed population data from the 2020 census will serve as the building block to redraw 429 U.S. House districts in 44 states and 7,383 state legislative districts across the U.S. The official goal is to ensure each district has roughly the same number of people.
But many Republicans and Democrats also will be trying to ensure the new lines divide and combine voters in ways that make it more likely for their partys candidates to win future elections, a process called gerrymandering. The parties successes in that effort could determine whether taxes and spending grow, climate-change polices are approved or access to abortion is expanded or curtailed.
Black Democrat Collective To Challenge House Republicans
A growing group of Black Democrats mostly men is stepping up to try to unseat Republican House members in California, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Illinois.
Why it matters: Although independent analysts like the Cook Political Report think the members’ districts are friendly GOP territory, a Black political group backing the challengers believes the candidates have a chance because of their local ties and the districts’ changing demographics.
Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets.
The backdrop: So far, nine Black Democrats are running to challenge Republicans in these states, but The Collective PAC tells Axios that number will grow by five or more. All but one is a Black man.
What they’re saying: “Our mission is about building Black political power,” said Kevin Olasanoye, The Collective PAC’s political director. It works to ensure equal Black representation at all levels of government.
Between the lines: These campaigns are still in their early stages and the candidates haven’t even conducted polling to find particular vulnerabilities in their Republican opponents.
What to watch: The Collective said it doesn’t intend to get involved in primary challenges to any sitting CBC members, including the one being mounted by Kina Collins against Rep. Danny Davis in Ill.-7.
That said, the group isn’t ruling out getting involved in other Dem-on-Dem primaries, Olasanoye said.
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Composition Of The Us House Of Representatives By Political Party Affiliation For The 116th Congress In 2019 By State
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The Number Of People Each House Member Represents Will Change
The number of residents represented by each House member will mostly grow;in 2022, though it will decrease per representative in some states.;
Since Montana gained a representative, its two House members will now split the states population currently represented by Rep. Matt Rosendale, a Republican. The addition of another House seat means Montanas House members will represent the least amount of people compared to House members in other states.
Delawares sole House district, currently held by Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, will be the largest in terms of population.
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With Control Of White House And Congress Democrats Have 2 Years To Make Big Changes
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U.S. Democrats secured unified control of the White House and Congress on Wednesday with the inauguration of President Joe Biden followed by Vice President Kamala Harris swearing in three new Democratic senators.
The three new senators bring the U.S. Senate to a 50-50 Democratic-Republican tie, with Harris as the presiding officer representing the tie-breaking vote.
With the U.S. House continuing under the leadership of Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Biden begins his term with the opportunity to work with the two Democrat-controlled chambers to enact significant legislative changes.;
As a result of the shifting political power on Capitol Hill, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York has succeeded Republican Mitch McConnell as Senate majority leader. The Kentucky senator, who served in the top leadership post for six years, was highly skilled at blocking Democratic legislation, as well as advancing former President Donald Trumps judicial and administration nominees through the confirmation process.;
Schumer acknowledged some of those challenges Wednesday in his first speech as majority leader.
This Senate will tackle the perils of the moment: a once-in-a-generation health and economic crisis. And it will strive to make progress on generations-long struggle for racial justice, economic justice, equality of opportunity and equality under the law, Schumer said.
Y Divisions Of United States Congresses
Party divisions of United States Congresses have played a central role in the organization and operations of both chambers of the United States Congressthe Senate and the House of Representativessince its establishment as the bicameral legislature of the Federal government of the United States in 1789. Political parties had not been anticipated when the U.S. Constitution was drafted in 1787, nor did they exist at the time the first Senate elections and House elections occurred in 1788 and 1789. Organized political parties developed in the U.S. in the 1790s, but political factionsfrom which organized parties evolvedbegan to appear almost immediately after the 1st Congress convened. Those who supported the Washington administration were referred to as “pro-administration” and would eventually form the Federalist Party, while those in opposition joined the emerging Democratic-Republican Party.
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How The Recall Attempt Made It To The Ballot
Although Gov. Gavin Newsoms critics started their recall attempt because they opposed his stances on the death penalty and immigration, it was the politicization of the pandemic that propelled it onto the ballot as Californians became impatient with shutdowns of businesses and classrooms.
Initiated by a retired Republican sheriffs sergeant in Northern California, Orrin Heatlie, the recall was one of six conservative-led petitions that began circulating within months of Mr. Newsoms inauguration.
Initially, Mr. Heatlies petition had difficulty gaining traction. But it gathered steam as the pandemic swept California and Mr. Newsom struggled to contain it. Californians who at first were supportive of the governors health orders wearied of shutdowns in businesses and classrooms, and public dissatisfaction boiled over in November when Mr. Newsom was spotted mask-free at the French Laundry, an exclusive wine country restaurant, after urging the public to avoid gatherings.
A court order extending the deadline for signature gathering because of pandemic shutdowns allowed recall proponents to capitalize on the outrage and unease.
United States House Of Representatives
|United States House of Representatives|
|Flag of the U.S. House of Representatives|
|Plurality voting in 46 statesVaries in 4 states|
The United States House of Representatives is the lower house of the United States Congress, with the Senate being the upper house. Together they compose the national bicameral legislature of the United States.
The House’s composition is established by Article One of the United States Constitution. The House is composed of representatives who sit in congressional districts allocated to each state on a basis of population as measured by the U.S. Census, with each district having one representative, provided that each state is entitled to at least one. Since its inception in 1789, all representatives have been directly elected. The number of voting representatives is fixed by law at 435. If enacted, the DC Admission Act would permanently increase the number of representatives to 436. In addition, there are currently six non-voting members, bringing the total membership of the House of Representatives to 441 or fewer with vacancies. As of the 2010 Census, the largest delegation is that of California, with 53 representatives. Seven states have only one representative: Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.
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I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver
sarah: Yeah, Democrats might not have their worst Senate map in 2022, but it will by no means be easy, and how they fare will have a lot to do with the national environment. And as we touched on earlier, Bidens overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats midterm chances.
nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. And then it wouldnt even matter if Democrats win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bills fate for at least a while longer.;
sarah: Lets talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. Its still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that arent grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke will help them win.
What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?
With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.