Initial Battleground Divided Between Gop
ANALYSIS We knew it even before the runoffs in Georgia were finished: Control of the Senate would be on the ballot once again in 2022. Every vote in the chamber will matter over the next two years and every seat will matter in two years when voters decide, again, which party will be in the majority.;
After Democrats take control, Republicans running in what will be President Joe Bidens midterm will need to gain just a single seat from an initial battlefield of eight states. Those vulnerable seats are split evenly between those currently held by Republicans and those held by Democrats . Two of those Democrats just won special elections and will be fighting for full terms in 2022.;
An eight-state battlefield is relatively small compared to 2020, when there were at least 13 states hosting competitive races. Depending on the political environment, circumstances and party recruitment, the battlefield could expand to include another couple of GOP seats, including Iowa and Ohio or a Democratic-held seat in Colorado .
Overall, this class of senators includes 14 seats currently held by Democrats and 20 seats held by Republicans.;
As with every cycle, other seats could be added to the docket with special elections in the event senators leave because of appointments to the administration, death, or resignation.;
Nathan L. Gonzales is an elections analyst for CQ Roll Call.
Pelosi Says It Doesnt Matter Right Now If Shell Seek Another Term As Speaker Beyond 2022
;In a press call, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shot down a question about whether this upcoming term would be her last as speaker, calling it the least important question you could ask today. She added that the fate of our nation, the soul of the nation is at stake in the election.
Elections are about the future, Pelosi said. One of these days Ill let you know what my plans are, when it is appropriate and when it matters. It doesnt matter right now.
After the 2018 election, Pelosi agreed to term limits on Democratic leaders that would prevent her from serving as speaker beyond 2022.
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Filed Candidates By Political Party
As of September 7, 2020, there were 3,263 candidates filed with the FEC to run for U.S. House in 2020. Of those, 2,767â1,291 Democrats and 1,476 Republicansâwere from one of the two major political parties. In 2018, 3,244 candidates filed with the FEC, including 1,566 Democrats and 1,155 Republicans.
The following chart shows the number of filed candidates by political party.
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Voting Members By State
Incumbents Defeated In Primary Elections
The following table lists incumbents defeated in 2020 House primary elections or conventions.
| Incumbents defeated in primaries |
|---|
In the 2018 midterm elections, 378 U.S. House incumbents ran for re-election. This was the lowest number of U.S. House incumbents seeking re-election since 1992.
Thirty-four incumbentsâ9 percentâlost their re-election bids. That included two Democrats and 32 Republicans. This was the highest percentage of incumbents defeated since 2012, when 10.2 percent were not re-elected.
The following data for congressional re-election rates from 2000 to 2016 was reported in Vital Statistics, a joint research project of the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute. Find the original datasets and methodology here. Data for the 2018 election came from Ballotpedia.
| Defeated U.S. House incumbents by party, 2000-2018 |
|---|
| Year |
| 97.8 |
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Women In The Us House Of Representatives 2021
In addition to the 119;women currently serving, four women delegates also represent American Samoa, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The congresswomen include 46;women of color: 23;African American women, 7;Asian Pacific Islanders, and 12;Latinas, 1;Native American woman, 1;Middle Eastern/North African woman, and 2 multi-racial women. The delegates include an Asian/Pacific Islander, a Latina, a Caribbean American and an African American. For more information on the number of women of color serving in the House . Nancy Pelosi , the first woman Speaker of the House, holds the highest position in the House and is second in line of presidential succession. For more information on women in leadership roles;in Congress, click here.;
Of the 119;women in the House:
Minorities Veterans And Retiring Members
Total Black members in the House and Senate: 61
House: 58
- Newly elected: 8
- Reelected incumbents: 50
Senate: 3
- Reelected incumbent: 1
- No election: 2
The 117th Congress will have the largest number of Black members in the history of the House and in the history of Congress. The 58 representatives are a new record for the House, while the record-high three in the Senate remains the same, at least until Harris resigns to become vice president.
Total Latino members in the House and Senate: 44
House: 39
- Newly elected House: 6
- Reelected House incumbents: 33
Senate: 5
- Newly elected Senate: 1
- No election: 4
The 44 Latino members of Congress will be the most ever, according to NALEO. There will also be the most ever Latino senators. Latino House membership will match the current record high. The overall record total in Congress will increase to 45 when Padilla replaces Harris.
Total LGBTQ members in the House and Senate: 11
House: 9
- Newly elected: 2
- Reelected incumbents: 7
Senate: 2
- No election: 2
According to LGBTQ Victory Institute, this will be the most people who identify as LGBTQ to ever serve in the House and the most to ever serve in Congress.
Total veteran members in the House and Senate: 91
House: 74
- Newly elected: 14
- Reelected incumbents: 60
Senate: 17
- Newly elected: 2
- Reelected incumbents: 9
- No election: 6
Retiring members in the House and Senate: 3
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In the 114th Congress there are 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats in the House, giving the Republicans the majority. Republicans have had majority in the House since the 2010 Midterm Election, with John Boehner as Speaker of the House. Before the 2010 election, the Democrats had majority and Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.
Infrastructure Is An Issue Voters Want Politicians To Fix
He notes that voters in his state complain all the time about the roads, especially after the beating they take during the winter months. It was a central campaign issue for one gubernatorial candidate, in particular.
“Our governor, Gretchen Whitmer, won three years ago with one simple message: ‘Fix the damn roads,’ ” Upton noted.
Unlike Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who voted for the infrastructure bill but didn’t weigh in publicly on it, House Republican leaders are criticizing the measure and urging rank-and-file members to vote no.
Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has reversed her earlier strategy to link the bipartisan infrastructure bill to the broader $3.5 trillion spending package on Democratic priorities such as health care, education, climate and child care programs.
But House GOP leaders are still making the case the legislation is tied together and, for that reason, insist Republicans can’t vote for one and then oppose the other.
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Control Of The Senate Could Be Decided By Georgia Races
;There are two races up in Georgia this election, a regular Senate race and special election. The rules in Georgia for both the regular Senate election and the Senate special election require a candidate to win a majority, and if none of the candidates clear the 50% threshold, the race goes to a runoff in January.;
Recent polling in the race between incumbent GOP Senator David Perdue and Democrat Jon Ossoff has been tight, and the presence of a libertarian candidate on the ballot could prevent either Perdue or Ossoff from clearing the majority. In the special election, 21 candidates have qualified to be on the ballot, including Democrat Raphael Warnock, who has led in recent polls. GOP candidates Senator Kelly Loeffer, who was appointed to the seat last year, and Congressman Doug Collins are also on the ballot. If no candidate clears the majority, that race will also go to a runoff in January.
Advantage In Democrats Favor
Right now, Democrats seem to be performing better in generic polls used to test the voting waters. Also, President Bidens approval ratings remain moderate, meaning there is a decent likelihood of people not voting for Republicans in the upcoming midterm Congressional elections.
Still, in order to retake the US House, the GOP would have to flip several seats to gain the lower chamber majority. While this is doable, it remains up to bettors to determine whether or not thats a wager theyre willing to take. Most offshore sportsbooks offered action on US House control as the 2020 election neared, and we expect that to happen again in 2022.
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States Where One Party Gained Seats In Both Chambers
There were 19 states where either Democrats, Republicans, or both had a net gain of state legislative seats in both state legislative chambers. Democrats had a net gain in both legislative chambers of six states. Republicans had a net gain in both legislative chambers of 15 states. This analysis includes seats vacant at the time of the election as its own category. This means a party may be recorded as gaining a seat that was most recently held by a member of the same party if that seat was vacant at the time of the election.
The table below shows these states and the net gains made by each party in both state legislative chambers. Democratic gains are shown on the left. Republican gains are shown on the right.
| States where one party gained seats in both chambers, 2020 |
|---|
| Democratic |
Eighty-six of 99 state legislative chambers across 44 states held general elections on November 3, 2020. Partisan control flipped in two chambersâRepublicans gained majorities in the New Hampshire House of Representatives and the New Hampshire State Senate.
Heading into the 2020 elections, Republicans had majorities in 59 chambers and Democrats had majorities in 39 chambers. In the Alaska House, there was a power-sharing agreement between the parties as part of a coalition.
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How Republicans Pulled Off A Big Upset And Nearly Took Back The House
Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
There seemed to be one safe bet when it came to the 2020 election results: Democrats would easily hold on to their majority in the House of Representatives. Not only that, but the conventional wisdom held that Democrats would pick up more than the 235 seats they won in the 2018 midterm elections.
The Bottom Line: Republicans Pick Up Many Seats In State House And State Senate Growing Supermajorities
On Tuesday night, Kentuckys election results showed a huge sweep for Republicans at the state level as they brought their majorities to 75 of 100 members in the House and 30 of 38 members in the Senate.
At the national level, U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell won his re-election race by a large margin and all of Kentuckys congressmen easily won their re-election races.
As we wait to see the final results in the presidential race and learn who will control the U.S. Senate, here is a look at how many state races played out.
Much of the following is written based on unofficial election results but many of the margins are safe.
Some of the most notable races people had been watching closely include:
- Rep. Jason Nemes;holding his seat in Louisville;after winning 54.4% of the vote with 94.29% of precincts reporting
- Sen. Chris McDaniel winning his re-election;race in northern Kentucky by 8,644 votes by the end of the night with 83.13% of precincts reporting
- The;Republican Johnnie L. Turner beating longtime incumbent Democrat Sen. Johnny Ray Turner;.
- A Republican will hold a longtime Democratic Senate seat as;Adrienne Southworth ended up with 52.6% of the vote over current state Rep. Joe Graviss and the son of retiring state Sen. and former Governor Julian Carroll, Ken Carroll .;95.88% of precincts had reported in this race at the time this story was written.
- Democratic Rep. Maria Sorolis narrowly losing her Louisville race to GOP candidate and former legislator Ken Fleming .
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Why There Are 435 Members
There’s really nothing special about that number. Congress regularly increased the number of seats in the House based on the nation’s population growth from 1790 to 1913, and 435 is the most recent count. The number of seats in the House has not been increased in more than a century, though, even though every 10 years the census shows the population of the United States grows.
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Results Summary And Analysis
The Democratic Party won control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. The Democrats gained a net total of 41 seats from the total number of seats they had won in the 2016 elections. This was their largest gain of House seats in an election since the 1974 elections, when the Democrats gained 49 House seats. Democrats won the popular vote by more than 9.7 million votes or 8.6%, the largest midterm margin for any party and the largest margin on record for a minority party.
According to the Associated Press statistical analysis, gerrymandering cost the Democrats an additional sixteen House seats from Republicans.
Voter turnout in this election was 50.3%, the highest turnout in a U.S. midterm election since 1914.
Note that the results summary does not include blank and over/under votes which were included in the official results or votes cast in the voided election in North Carolinas 9th congressional district.
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