Florida Vs California: How Two States Tackled Covid
The researchers theorized that one reason for the change is that Democrats were in charge of states where people who had the virus first arrived in the country but Republicans were less stringent about safeguards, which could have contributed to their states ultimately higher incidence and death rates.
The early trends could be explained by high Covid-19 cases and deaths among Democratic-led states that are home to initial ports of entry for the virus in early 2020, the researchers wrote. However, the subsequent reversal in trends, particularly with respect to testing, may reflect policy differences that could have facilitated the spread of the virus.
The study, which which was published in the peer-reviewed American Journal of Preventive Medicine, examined Covid-19 incidence, death, testing, and test positivity rates from March 15 through December 15, 2020, when there were 16 million confirmed cases in the U.S. and 300,000 deaths. It focused on per-capita infection and death rates in the 26 GOP-led states and 24 Democratic-led states and Washington, D.C., and made statistical adjustments for issues such as population density.
But policy differences between the Republican and Democratic leaders emerged as a big factor for the reversal of the states fortunes, the study suggests.
One of the most concerning things last year is the politicization of public health restrictions, Lee said. Theyre not opinions, theyre based on evidence.
Opinionhow Can Democrats Fight The Gop Power Grab On Congressional Seats You Wont Like It
Facing mounting pressure from within the party, Senate Democrats finally hinted Tuesday that an emboldened Schumer may bring the For the People Act back for a second attempt at passage. But with no hope of GOP support for any voting or redistricting reforms and Republicans Senate numbers strong enough to require any vote to cross the 60-vote filibuster threshold, Schumers effort will almost certainly fail.
Senate Democrats are running out of time to protect Americas blue cities, and the cost of inaction could be a permanent Democratic minority in the House. Without resorting to nuclear filibuster reform tactics, Biden, Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may be presiding over a devastating loss of Democrats most reliable electoral fortresses.
How Did The Gop Gain In The House While Trump Lost Its Actually Pretty Simple
One of the increasingly prevalent arguments spun by President Trump and his allies when it comes to supposed voter fraud in the 2020 election is this: Republicans had, by and large, a pretty good election below the presidential level. They gained significant ground in the House and probably held the Senate as long as they dont lose both Georgia runoffs. So how on earth did Trump lose?
The answer is actually pretty simple: Our elections increasingly look more like parliamentary ones, and given that, the results make a ton of sense.
New data from the election-reform group FairVote sheds some light on how the battle for the House played out. The big takeaway: Our politics are increasingly less about people and incumbents and more about party. Weve been talking about increased polarization for many years, but the 2020 election really drove it home. The results for Congress affirm the fact that Republicans writ large lost the election, even though it might have been closer than many expected.
FairVote has for years studied an issue called incumbency bump i.e., how much an incumbent benefits relative to other members of their party thanks to already being in office. The conventional wisdom on incumbency is that its a big advantage that people might not like a politicians party or Congress as a whole, but if they know that politician well or have any doubts, theyll revert to supporting the person in the seat.
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Oc Supervisor Michelle Steel Defeats Rep Harley Rouda Flipping Socal Congressional Seat Back To Gop
Still, Republicans are buoyed as they look to 2022, when Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to seek another term. A U.S. Senate seat will be on the ballot along with other statewide offices, all held by Democrats.
Republicans see a target. Newsom is struggling with an economy battered by the virus, there is widespread discontent with the states shifting COVID restrictions and his credibility has been dented: He broke state rules when he and his wife were caught dining with 10 others at the toney French Laundry restaurant, sitting close together, mask-less. Newsom repeatedly has told Californians to stay home and wear masks.
We have a real opportunity, I think, to win statewide again, Patterson said.
Biden, despite his dominating win in the state, did not have coattails in key House races.
In the 25th District north of Los Angeles, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia held on for a 333-vote win over Democrat Christy Smith while running as a Trump apostle in a district with a 7.5-point Democratic registration edge. The son of a Mexican immigrant father, the former Navy combat pilot won the seat in a May special election after the resignation of former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill.
Young Kim defeated Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros in a rematch in the Democratic-leaning 39th District, anchored in Orange County. A former state lawmaker, she was born in South Korea and grew up in Guam.
Who Controls State Legislatures In States With Changes
Thirteen states were affected by the 2020 Census’ shift in congressional seats.;
States are given the task of redrawing districts when;they gain;or lose;seats.;
Michael Li, senior counsel for the non-partisan Brennan Center for Justice’s Democracy Program,;said;the country could be poised for a battle over;gerrymandering, the practice of redrawing district lines to favor one party over the other or to suppress the vote of communities of color.
In some states, the process is fairer than others, he said, because they are not controlled by just one political party or they have instituted an independent redistricting committee, such as in Michigan. But for other states, the party in power stands to control the map.
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How Republicans Pulled Off A Big Upset And Nearly Took Back The House
Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
There seemed to be one safe bet when it came to the 2020 election results: Democrats would easily hold on to their majority in the House of Representatives. Not only that, but the conventional wisdom held that Democrats would pick up more than the 235 seats they won in the 2018 midterm elections.
Why Did House Democrats Underperform Compared To Joe Biden
The results of the 2020 elections pose several puzzles, one of which is the gap between Joe Bidens handsome victory in the presidential race and the Democrats disappointing performance in the House of Representatives. Biden enjoyed an edge of 7.1 million votes over President Trump, while the Democrats suffered a loss of 13 seats in the House, reducing their margin from 36 to just 10.
Turnout in the 2018 mid-term election reached its highest level in more than a century. Democrats were fervently opposed to the Trump administration and turned out in droves. Compared to its performance in 2016, the partys total House vote fell by only 2%. Without Donald Trump at the head of the ticket, Republican voters were much less enthusiastic, and the total House vote for Republican candidates fell by nearly 20% from 2016. Democratic candidates received almost 10 million more votes than Republican candidates, a margin of 8.6%, the highest ever for a party that was previously in the minority. It was, in short, a spectacular year for House Democrats.
To understand the difference this Democratic disadvantage can make, compare the 2020 presidential and House results in five critical swing states.
Table 1: Presidential versus House results
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Election Analysis And Context
All 435 seatsincluding seven vacancieswere up for election, with Democrats needing to add 23 seats to win majority control of the chamber.
The Democratic Party was well-positioned to gain seats, according to a 100-year historical analysis of House elections conducted by Ballotpedia and political scientist Jacob Smith. From 1918 to 2016, the presidents party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections. The Democrats matched this pattern in the 2018 midterms, gaining 40 seats for a total of 235 seats17 more than was needed for a majority.
One undecided 2018 race was decided in September 2019 when Dan Bishop won the special election. The state board of elections called a new election following allegations of absentee ballot fraud in the 2018 race. for more information on the aftermath of the 2018 election.
In 372 of the 435 seats, an incumbent was seeking re-election on November 6. There were 52 seats where the incumbent was either retiring or otherwise not seeking re-election18 Democrats and 34 Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan and seven vacant seats. In four other seats, the incumbenttwo from each partywas defeated in a primary before election day.
There were 46 seats that changed party hands, both open seats and those occupied by an incumbent, and 30 of the 372 incumbent U.S. representatives lost their seats in the general electionall Republicans.
Gubernatorial And Legislative Party Control Of State Government
- Top 10 Closest Primaries: January to June 2020
- Wave elections
Gubernatorial and legislative party control of state government refers to the role of political parties in the power dynamic between state legislatures and executives. Below, we examine the partisan affiliation of the 1,972 state senators, 5,411 state representatives, and 50 state governors across the United States.
Partisan breakdown of state governments
Below, Ballotpedia presents our information on the partisan breakdown of state senators, state representatives, and governors as well as the state legislature and state executive branch as a whole. We also examine state government trifectas, which occur when the state house, the state senate, and the office of the governor are each controlled by one political party. Trifectas are important to highlight since unified partisan affiliation between the branches of state government can impact a states legislative process.
The following maps display current state government trifectas as well as historical trifectas leading up to the 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections. Use the buttons below to select a map.
Eric Holder: There Is Still A Fight For Democrats Against Gop Gerrymandering
In McConnells Kentucky, for instance, Republicans are divided over how far to go during the upcoming redistricting process, which they control in the deep-red state. The more extreme wing wants to crack the Democratic stronghold of Louisville, currently represented by Rep. John Yarmuth. More cautious Republicans like McConnell are willing to settle for smaller changes that reduce Democratic margins while stuffing more Republican voters into hotly contested swing districts.
Make no mistake: McConnells caution isnt rooted in any newfound respect for the integrity of our electoral process. Instead, Republicans are mainly worried about avoiding the costly and embarrassing court decisions that invalidated their most extreme overreaches and potentially turn the line-drawing over to the courts. So McConnells approach doesnt reject partisan gerrymandering it just avoids the type of high-profile city-cracking that could land the Kentucky GOP in federal court.
States With Republican Governors Had Highest Covid Incidence And Death Rates Study Finds
States with Democratic governors had the highest incidence and death rates from Covid-19 in the first months of the coronavirus pandemic, but states with Republican governors surpassed those rates as the crisis dragged on, a study released Tuesday found.
From March to early June, Republican-led states had lower Covid-19 incidence rates compared with Democratic-led states. On June 3, the association reversed, and Republican-led states had higher incidence,the study by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and the Medical University of South Carolina showed.
For death rates, Republican-led states had lower rates early in the pandemic, but higher rates from July 4 through mid-December, the study found.
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The House’s Balance Of Power Is Tipped Toward Democrats
The Democrats;have a narrow six-member margin in the current House of Representatives, meaning if just a handful of seats flip, Republicans can regain control of the House.
Democrats’;advantage;will grow to seven when Troy Carter is sworn in;to fill a seat in Louisiana’s delegation left vacant;by Cedric Richmond, who left the House to join the Biden administration as the director of the White House Office of Public Engagement.;
United States House Of Representatives Elections 2018
Heading into the elections, Republicans had a 235-193 majority with seven vacancies. All 435 seats were up for election. Special elections were held earlier in 2018 and in 2017 to fill vacancies that occurred in the 115th Congress. Democrats flipped one seat when Conor Lamb won a to replace Tim Murphy in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District.
Ballotpedia covered every state and federal primary in 2018 to highlight the intraparty conflicts that shaped the parties and the general elections. Click here for our coverage of Republican Party primaries in 2018, and here for our coverage of Democratic Party primaries.
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Isan Composition Of State Legislatures
The partisan composition of state legislatures refers to which political party holds the majority of seats in the State Senate and State House. Altogether, there are 1,972 state senators and 5,411 state representatives.The breakdown of chamber control after the November 2020 election is as follows:
- 37 chambers
- One chamber with power sharing between the parties
The breakdown of chamber control prior to the November 2020 election was as follows:
- 39 chambers
state government trifecta
As of August 15, 2021, there are 23 Republican trifectas, 15 Democratic trifectas, and 12 divided governments where neither party holds trifecta control.
Districts That Flipped In 2018
The map below highlights congressional districts that changed party control in the general elections on November 6, 2018.
The following table lists congressional districts that changed party control in the general elections on November 6, 2018. It also includes 2020 general election race ratings from three outlets.
|Flipped congressional districts, 2018|
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Republicans Introduce 253 Bills To Restrict Voting Rights In States Across The Us
Republican lawmakers in 43 states have introduced a total of 253 bills aimed at restricting access to the ballot box for tens of millions of people. Republican-controlled states, including Southern states that employed lynch law terror to block African Americans from voting during the decades-long period of Jim Crow segregation, are flooding their legislatures with measures to effectively disenfranchise working class, poor and minority voters.
The laws largely focus on tightening voter ID requirements, purging voter rolls and restricting absentee and mail-in ballots.
In the United States, state governments have the authority to oversee elections and determine election procedures and rules, including for national elections. Within each state, individual counties have a great deal of latitude in the conduct of elections.
Republicans control both the lower and upper legislative houses in 36 of the 50 states, and both the legislatures and governorships in 23 states, making it very possible for far-reaching barriers to the ballot box to be imposed across much of the country.
Despite opening the door for a return to restrictive and discriminatory voting practices, the 2013 ruling met with little resistance on the part of the Democratic Party. Neither the Obama White House nor the congressional Democrats mounted any serious effort to reverse the evisceration of the Voting Rights Act by enacting new legislation in the years since the reactionary Shelby ruling.
Gop Women Made Big Gains
While the majority of the Republican caucus will still be men come 2021, there will be far more Republican women in Congress than there were this year. So far, it looks like at least 26 GOP women will be in the House next year, surpassing the record of 25 from the 109th Congress. Thats thanks in part to the record number of non-incumbent Republican women 15 whove won House contests. And its also because of how well Republican women did in tight races. The table below shows the Republican women who ran in Democratic-held House districts that were at least potentially competitive,1 according to FiveThirtyEights forecast. As of this writing, seven of them have won.
GOP women have flipped several Democratic seats
Republican women running for potentially competitive Democratic-held House seats and the status of their race as of 4:30 p.m Eastern on Nov. 11
Results are unofficial. Races are counted as projected only if the projection comes from ABC News. Excludes races in which the Republican candidate has either a less than 1 in 100 chance or greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning.
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