Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Does Biden Have A Chance Against Trump

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Biden Irked By Democrats Who Wont Take Yes For An Answer On 2024

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The White House is trying to tamp down speculation about plans to seek re-election, while aides say President Biden is bristling at the persistent questions.

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By Jonathan Martin and Zolan Kanno-Youngs

WASHINGTON Earlier this month, when Senator Bernie Sanders said he would not challenge President Biden in 2024, Mr. Biden was so relieved he invited his former rival to dinner at the White House the next night.

Mr. Biden has been eager for signs of loyalty and they have been few and far between. Facing intensifying skepticism about his capacity to run for re-election when he will be nearly 82, the president and his top aides have been stung by the questions about his plans, irritated at what they see as a lack of respect from their party and the press, and determined to tamp down suggestions that hes effectively a lame duck a year and a half into his administration.


Mr. Biden isnt just intending to run, his aides argue, but hes also laying the groundwork by building resources at the Democratic National Committee, restocking his operation in battleground states and looking to use his influence to shape the nomination process in his favor.

However, its hardly just the presidents progressive detractors who are nervous about soaring inflation, uneasy about Mr. Biden running again, and not convinced he even should.

Biden Leads Trump By 12 Pointshis Win Would Be First Defeat Of A Sitting President In 28 Years

Polls give former Vice President Joe Biden a very good chance at winning November’s election, and if he does, Donald Trump will be the first president since President George H.W. Bush to fail to win re-election.

Historically, it hasn’t been easy for a candidate to defeat a sitting president: It’s happened only five times in the past 100 years. Democrats ousted Republican presidents four of those times, the most recent being in 1992 when Bill Clinton beat Bush.

Bush once held the highest approval rating in Gallup’s history, but an economic downturn, including a rise in unemployment, and race riots in Los Angeles after the acquittal of police officers who beat motorist Rodney King helped drag down his approval rating to 29 percent in July 1992. It was the lowest point of his presidency.


Although Bush experienced an increase in his approval rating after the Republican Convention, Clinton was ahead by 19 percentage points in mid-August of that year, according to Gallup. Three months later, Clinton won the election with 43 percent of the popular vote.

Fast-forward to mid-August of the 2020 presidential race. Biden holds a 12 percentage point lead over Trump, a Washington Post/ABC News poll reports. The poll, released Monday, found 53 percent of respondents would cast their ballot for Biden and 41 percent would vote for Trump.

Winning Candidate Calculated On Early Presidential Nominating Contest And Discounting Opinion Surveys

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President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November, Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.


Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.

The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.

The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall, Mr Norpoth said.

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Furthermore, there are two key demographics that swung for Trump in the 2016 election that Democrats need to win back in 2020: Independent voters and most importantly, suburban female voters. In the 2016 election, over 47 percent of Trumps voters were women a statistic that still shocks many pundits and analysts to this day. But due to the rhetoric and blunders of the White House, nearly 30 percent of those women now have a very poor impression of Trump according to a recent Pew Research Poll.


Worse than just their sentiments toward Trump, though, suburban women who catapulted him into the White House swung blue in the midterm elections. A USA Today analysis of the 2018 midterm election found more than 80 suburban counties and cities with high incomes and large number of college-educated voters voted more Democratic than in 2016. These gains were huge for Democrats, but this demographic could change again in 2020 if Republicans were to get smart about their candidates, rhetoric, and strategy, which no one expects.

These suburban and college-educated women who are increasingly aligning themselves with the Democratic party also describe themselves as mostly moderates looking for a government that compromises.

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Election 2020: Poll Shows Biden Has 71% Chance Of Winning Against Trump

As Biden tries to balance his own inclinations with pressures from within his party, his advisers stressed that he is seeking to reset the dynamic between the White House and the Justice Department from what it has been under Trump.

Biden wants his Justice Department to function independently from the White House, aides said, and Biden isn’t going to tell federal law enforcement officials whom or what to investigate or not to investigate.

“His overarching view is that we need to move the country forward,” an adviser said. “But the most important thing on this is that he will not interfere with his Justice Department and not politicize his Justice Department.”


A third Biden adviser said that when it comes to any Trump-related investigations, the expectation is “it’s going to be very situational” and “depending on the merits.” Broadly, Biden’s priorities will be the economy, the coronavirus, climate change and race relations, not looking back at the Trump administration, an adviser said.

Presidents generally set the tone for what issues they believe should be priorities for the Justice Department, and questions about Trump-related investigations or retrospective reviews are expected to intensify as Biden gets closer to taking office.

“He can set a tone about what he thinks should be done,” a Biden adviser said. But, the adviser said, “he’s not going to be a president who directs the Justice Department one way or the other.”

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Attitudes About Criminal Justice Reform Show Some Bipartisan Support

The latest poll asked voters some new questions about criminal justice reform. Seventy percent of registered voters in Tennessee think that the criminal justice system either needs a complete overhaul or major changes, nationally and in Tennessee.


While Democrats are slightly more likely to hold these beliefs , a majority of Republicans also express a strong desire for criminal justice reform.

When questioned about whether its preferable to give convicted murderers the death penalty or life imprisonment without the possibility of parole, 53 percent of those surveyed say life imprisonment is the preferable option. Thirty-seven percent responded that the death penalty is the better of the two choices. While there are some partisan differencesa slight majority of Republicans prefer the death penalty and 66 percent of Democrats prefer life imprisonment with absolutely no possibility of parolethe partisan divisions are not as great as those found on other issues.

Those insights come as Lee last month paused executions in Tennessee through 2022 after issuing a reprieve to inmate Oscar Franklin Smith due to a technical oversight in the lethal injection process.

Responses reflect a change in attitude since respondents answered this question in spring 2011, when 55 percent supported the death penalty over life in prison for convicted murderers.

Wednesdays Forecast Is The First Published By Fivethirtyeight Since Kamala Harris Was Chosen As Joe Bidens Running Mate

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Joe Biden has a 71 per cent chance of beating Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to a new analysis by FiveThirtyEight.

Wednesdays forecast, the first issued by FiveThirtyEight since Kamala Harris was announced as Mr Bidens running mate, gives Mr Trump just a 29 per cent chance of winning the 2020 presidential election.

While its clear that Biden is comfortably ahead of Trump right now – nationally and in most battleground states – the forecast shows Trump with a meaningful chance of winning because theres still plenty of time for the race to tighten, FiveThirtyEight said in a statement, adding: But wait! Should you even trust the polls?

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Does Trump Have A Chance To Win In The 2024 Elections

Quinnipiac poll:

60% of Americans think it would be bad for the country if Trump ran for president in 2024. Just 32% think it would be good.

Kyle Griffin

Barring a decline of health or a complete change of mind, it looks like Donald Trump is up for another round as United States President. In recent months, he has had the support of several politicians, including the secretary of state, representatives, and senators. E has even started speaking at rallies and events to keep his political base engaged just in time for the 2022 midterms.


A recent poll showed that over 63 percent of Republican voters and supporters think the election was rigged. Only 28 percent of Trump voters say he shouldnt run. At the same time, his approval rating dropped at an astounding rate. Adults surveyed resulted in a 32 percent approval rate and a 55 percent disapproval rate.

Biden Has The Best Shot At Carrying The Senate

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Any Democrat who could beat Trump would only have a shot at a transformative presidency if he or she also took the Senate. Right now, it looks bleak for Democrats.

McConnell controls the Senate by three votes . And in 2020, there is no Republican running in a state that Clinton carried by 5 points or more. So while Democrats defend seats in 12 states where theyre up for reelection, a few of them tough races, theyll also have to flip seats in at least three competitive races to take back control of Congress.

Most Democrats believe their best bets for flips are in Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and Maine. Biden has earned about a dozen endorsements across these states, including from Napolitano, the only Democrat to be elected governor in the state since 1982.

Vulnerable Democrats defending seats include Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan, a state where Biden has consistently polled above Trump by a higher margin than any other candidate. Hes earned some half a dozen endorsements from sitting lawmakers there, too.


Similarly, hes picked up strong support in Alabama.

Even if you look at an example like the state of Alabama where theres a clear dichotomy between urban-exurban and rural, hes uniquely positioned not to move just urban voters, said Democratic Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin, who has endorsed Biden. When you think about all parts of the state, hes actually able to excite and motivate those same Alabamians who may be white or rural.

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Where Is Trump Now After His Presidency Ended

After the incident in the U.S. Capitol, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, feared that Trump would use the election loss to power a coup. Many believe that the insurrection was a coup attempt that very nearly succeeded. After his impeachment trial was dropped, he became qualified to run again in 2024, much to the delight of his supporters.

Just this July, he met up with McCarthy to discuss the GOPs strategy in the coming years. By then, Trump would be 78 years old, and others would argue that he would be too old if Biden werent elected last year at age 77.

Currently, he is still managing his familys business empire with the help of his wife and children. Criminal charges are still being filed against him, but his legal group is a stronghold that has taken up and won several cases.

Donald Trump’s Chances Vs Joe Biden If He Runs Again In 2024

A number of bookmakers are naming Donald Trump as their favorite to win the 2024 presidential election if he runs, but several polls suggest it is still neck-and-neck between him and Joe Biden in a hypothetical match-up.

According to OddsChecker, which aggregates betting odds from numerous sources, Trump is the favorite to be the next president by several bookmakers including Paddy Power and Betfairwho are offering odds of 11/4as well as Bet365 and SkyBet .

In comparison, Paddy Power and Betfair are offering 9/2 odds on Biden winning the 2024 election, with Bet365 and SkyBet offering 5/1.

Trump has not formally announced that he intends on running for president again, but he has hinted at it from the moment he left the White House in January 2021.

The suggestion that Trump could beat Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match-up has been backed by a recent Emerson College poll conducted on May 24 and 25.

According to those taking part in the survey, 44 percent said they would vote for Trump in 2024, and 42 percent said they would back Biden if they were the two candidates.

The poll also shows that Biden’s approval rating remains low at 38 percent, down from 42 percent in an April survey.

The Emerson College poll reveals Biden’s job approval is lowest among white voters at 33 percent, and highest among Black voters at 61 percent.

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In Trump Vs Trump The Winner Is Joe Biden

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As President Trump skids in the polls, Joe Biden has amassed a lead in so many battleground states that he is competing in places once considered out of reach, narrowing the presidents path to reelection.

But for all Bidens good fortune, there is a catch: Voters are not so much upbeat about him as they are upset with Trump. Many, in fact, dont know much about the prospective Democratic nominee, despite his decades in high office, and some Democrats warn that Biden shouldnt rely too heavily on Trumps self-destructiveness to keep propelling him forward.

The biggest challenge is filling in Joe Biden, said Robert Gibbs, a former advisor to President Obama. People know he was the vice president, but not a lot else.

It is a concern broadly shared among Democratic operatives, even as earlier doubts about Biden have melted away. His once-anemic campaign war chest is bulging as money floods in, and states including Georgia and Texas that long seemed out of reach are suddenly on the battle map. Weaknesses in the campaigns infrastructure such as a lackluster social media operation have been addressed, and Biden is more sure-footed on the virtual campaign trail.

But his lead has undeniably been driven more by anti-Trump animus than anything Biden has done. A CNN poll this month that had Biden ahead by 55% to 41% found that 3 out of 5 Biden voters said they were casting their ballot against Trump just 37% said it would be a pro-Biden vote.

Biden May Think He Can Beat Trump In 2024 But What If The Gop Chooses Someone Else

Biden

Following the various setbacks and missteps by the Biden administration, talk among Democrats that President Joe Biden should step aside to let a younger, more nimble politician lead the party into the 2024 election cycle is increasingly out in the open.

Pouring a bit of gasoline on this simmering debate within the party is Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who said Wednesday that it is certainly possiblethat Biden will face a Democratic primary challenge ahead of 2024. Then came some eyebrow-raising commentson the very same day by Vice President Kamala Harris. During a flight aboard Air Force Two, the vice president said that the president intends to run and if he does, I will be his ticket-mate the if in her remark fueling fresh speculation that a second Biden bid might not be such a sure thing.

The president has failed to meet the moment by not adequately addressing important kitchen table issues across the country.

But its not just elected officials who are questioning whether Biden should or will throw his hat in the ring for a repeat recent polling by YouGovsuggests that as few as 4 in 10 Democrats are convinced he should run again in 2024. Biden, for his part, has apparently become increasingly irritated by fellow members of his party who regularly bring up the matter of him stepping asidewhile at the same time working overtime to sell his viability for a Round #2 to party leaders.

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Abortion A Contentious Issue

Abortion is at the forefront of national conversation as a draft Supreme Court opinionwas leaked that suggests the conservative majority may overturn a court case that ruled that people have a constitutional right to obtain an abortion.

The draft majority opinion, written by conservativeJustice Samuel Alito, attacks the landmark 1973Roe v. Wade decisionas incorrectly decided. A final opinion is expected to be published in late June.

Among Tennesseans surveyed, 48 percent identified as pro-choice, and 50 percent identified as pro-life. Overall, 36 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal in all cases. Seventy percent of Democrats polled favored abortion being legal, while only 8 percent of Republicans prefer pro-choice legislation.

Overall, while there is a strong partisan divide on this issue, only a minority of Tennesseans, including Republicans, want to make all abortion illegal. There is strong support for having abortion be either completely legal or legal under some conditions, such as in cases of rape and incest and when the health of the mother is at stake.

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