Tuesday, June 11, 2024

How Popular Is Trump Among Republicans

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Republicans Take Steps To Hide Discouraging Polls About Trump

Donald Trump Jr takes the lead in a GOP popularity poll

Throughout his presidency, Donald Trump made up polling data that purportedly showed his widespread popularity. Independent surveys pointed in very different directions, but the Republican dismissed those polls by insisting they were part of an elaborate conspiracy against him.

During his semi-retirement, very little has changed. Trump recently appeared on Dan Bongino’s show, and when asked about the possibility of a third presidential campaign in 2024, the Republican said, “I am giving it the most serious consideration as you can imagine and based on every poll that I’m seeing and everything else. It’s something that is, you know, very positive, nobody’s seen anything more positive.”

At face value, it stood to reason that some polls might actually show Trump’s standing improving now that he’s no longer in office. In fact, that would be consistent with recent history: former presidents routinely see their support climb after they leave they White House.

But with Trump, it’s a bit more complicated.

First, his boasts notwithstanding, the former president appears to have lost support in recent months. In NBC News polling, Trump’s national favorability rating stood at 43% shortly before Election Day. By January, as he prepared to exit the White House, that total had dipped to 40%, and as of two weeks ago, the Republican’s favorability rating had slipped further to just 32%.

As a rule, willful ignorance is an unwise strategy for a political party.

Trump’s Approval Rating Holding Steady At 43 Percent With 55 Percent Disapproving

The same poll found that 35 percent of voters including 74 percent of Republicans but just 30 percent of independents and 3 percent of Democrats believe President-elect Joe Biden did not win the election legitimately.

Sixty-one percent of all voters but just 21 percent of Republicans say Biden did win legitimately.

While a record 10 House Republicans broke ranks to vote for Trump’s impeachment last week, his approval rating among Republicans shows few signs that GOP voters are widely disillusioned with him.

Almost 9 in 10 Republicans 87 percent give Trump a thumbs-up, compared with 89 percent who said the same before the November election.

And even for the half of Republicans who say they prioritize the GOP in general over allegiance to Trump, his high approval remains unmoved by recent events.

Among Republicans who say their primary loyalty is to Trump over the party, 98 percent approve of his performance. For those who say they prioritize the party over the president, his approval still stands at 81 percent virtually unchanged from October.

In the NBC News survey, nearly a third of GOP voters surveyed 28 percent said Trump’s words and actions related to the violence at the Capitol reinforced their vote for Trump.

Just 5 percent said they now regretted their support for him, and two-thirds 66 percent said their feelings had not changed.

An additional 9 percent say Trump is “not as good as most.”

Trumps Popularity Among Republicans Is On The Rise

Just when you thought it was safe to read about politics without constant references to Donald Trump or to polls, Politico and Morning Consult have some news for you, per this headline: Trump Emerges From Impeachment Trial With Sturdy Backing From GOP Voters.

I am very aware that we dont know what the 45th president will do going forward or how well his legacy will wear on his party or the country. Its also crazy early and for many horse-race-weary people, painfully early to talk about what might happen in the 2024 presidential cycle. All in all, most people reading my words likely want nothing more than to hear nothing about Trump for the foreseeable future, or perhaps until the end of time.

Having said all that, its important to acknowledge that Trump is historically unique, and not just because he was impeached twice or because he left office having incited a physical attack on the Capitol to overturn an election defeat that only a liar of his quality could have doubted. Like it or not, he left office as the first defeated president since Herbert Hoover to have reason to believe he could make a comeback, with the goal of becoming the first defeated president since Grover Cleveland to pull it off. So his standing among the fellow partisans who may before very long determine whether a Trump comeback is even plausible should be of interest to anyone wanting to look ahead with clear eyes.

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A Popular Theory For Trumps Popularity Among Republicans Appears To Be Wrong

It is not the case, despite President Trumps regular assertions, that his approval rating among Republicans is a consistent 95 percent. Although that figure appears regularly in the presidents Twitter feed, there appears to be no basis for it in public polling.

It is, however, the case that Trump is broadly popular among Republicans. In YouGovs most recent poll with the Economist, 88 percent of his party approves of the job hes doing somewhat offsetting the disapproval he garners among 89 percent of Democrats.

To Democrats, the level of support for Trump within his party seems occasionally baffling. How could someone they hate so much be viewed so positively by the other party? Over the course of Trumps presidency, a theory emerged: Hes so popular among Republicans because Trump-skeptical Republicans have simply given up on the party. Wring all the skeptics out of the party, and youre left with a more unanimous, if smaller, core.

Theres a public example of how this would work, after all: Had Rep. Justin Amash not left the party in July, the vote to impeach Trump in the House would not have been unanimously opposed by Republicans. Instead of Republicans voting 195-to-1 against impeachment, it was 195-to-0. This, perhaps, is how Trumps approval also works.

Unfortunately for that theory, though, the numbers dont really back it up.

The numbers havent changed much.

People From All Around The World Were Horrified By The Violent Scenes

Trump popular among NH Republicans, unpopular among ...

Youve caused this, get on TV immediately and stop it – before people start being killed. https://t.co/59dqsiXEaK Piers Morgan 1609962613.0

And thousands began calling on Trump to intervene and to tell his followers to back down… which, of course, he refused to do along with refusing to take responsibility for the actions of the rioters.

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Most Popular Republican Politicians Today

A look at popular Republicans in America shows that they come in all sizes and shapes.

Stacker compiled a list of the 50 most popular Republicans, based on data collected by YouGov from interviews between May 2019 and May 2020, with at least 7,000 people interviewed for each figure. The list is ranked by Republicans that have the highest positive opinion among voters, with ties being broken by how famous the politician is today.

Some Republicans find avid support from religious communities for their evangelical Christian views, opposing social issues like same-sex marriage and abortion rights. Some win backing for their policy stands, taking hawkish positions on immigration or foreign policy. They might build a following with their fervent belief in the rights of gun owners, or have been judged worthy by their response to crises such as the Sept. 11 attacks.

Still others build staying power among the public as longtime Washington forces of power, exceptionally skilled at making deals or ambitious fundraising. Some build support with bipartisanship and effective networking across party lines, while others cement their fortunes by toeing a strict party line. Many are war veterans, striking a chord with voters with their military service, including those that return home with lifelong scars.

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Trump Approval Remains Stable In New Nbc Poll With Republicans Unmoved After Capitol Violence

WASHINGTON Donald Trump is the only president in history to be impeached twice this time for his role in encouraging a deadly assault on the Capitol by his supporters but he is poised to leave office with a job approval rating that is fairly typical of his entire time in office.

A new NBC News poll found that 43 percent of voters nationwide gave Trump a positive job approval rating, just barely down from 45 percent who said the same before the November election and the 44 percent who approved of his performance shortly after he took office in 2017.

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New 2020 Voter Data: How Biden Won How Trump Kept The Race Close And What It Tells Us About The Future

As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well.

Now, using a massive sample of validated voters whose participation has been independently verified, the Pew Research Center has . It helps us understand how Joe Biden was able to accomplish what Hillary Clinton did notand why President Trump came closer to getting reelected than the pre-election surveys had predicted.

How Joe Biden won

Five main factors account for Bidens success.

  • The Biden campaign reunited the Democratic Party. Compared to 2016, he raised the share of moderate and conservative Democrats who voted for the Democratic nominee by 6 points, from 85 to 91%, while increasing the Democratic share of liberal Democrats from 94 to 98%. And he received the support of 85% of Democrats who had defected to 3rd party and independent candidates in 2016.
  • How Trump kept it close

    Despite non-stop controversy about his policies and personal conduct, President Trump managed to raise his share of the popular vote from 46% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. His core coalition held together, and he made a few new friends.

    Longer-term prospects

    % Of Republicans View Trump As True Us President

    Panel: Poll Finds Trump, Trump Jr As Top Choices For 2024 Republican Nominee

    A combination picture shows U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaking during the first 2020 presidential campaign debate, held on the campus of the Cleveland Clinic at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., September 29, 2020. Picture taken September 29, 2020. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

    WASHINGTON, May 24 – A majority of Republicans still believe Donald Trump won the 2020 U.S. presidential election and blame his loss to Joe Biden on illegal voting, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.

    The May 17-19 national poll found that 53% of Republicans believe Trump, their party’s nominee, is the true president now, compared to 3% of Democrats and 25% of all Americans.

    About one-quarter of adults believe the Nov. 3 election was tainted by illegal voting, including 56% of Republicans, according to the poll. The figures were roughly the same in a poll that ran from Nov. 13-17 which found that 28% of all Americans and 59% of Republicans felt that way.

    A Democrat, Biden won by more than seven million votes. Dozens of courts rejected Trumps challenges to the results, but Trump and his supporters have persisted in pushing baseless conspiracy theories on conservative news outlets.

    The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 61% of Republicans believe the election was “stolen” from Trump. Only about 29% of Republicans believe he should share some of the blame for his supporters’ Jan. 6 deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol.

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    Nearly Six Months Later Partisan Gaps On Culpability Motivation And Severity Of Capitol Attack Have Widened

    • GOP voters are now more likely to blame President Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress for the events that led to the Capitol attack than they are Donald Trump and GOP lawmakers.

    • The overall electorate has become more likely to say the Capitol rioters represent the Republican Party.

    • 68% of GOP voters say there has been too much focus on the January 6th events, while 50% of all voters disagree.

    This article is part of a deep dive on the Jan. 6 riot in Washington and creeping authoritarianism in America. See all of our work here.

    In the aftermath of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol by a mob of then-President Donald Trumps supporters, a handful of Republican leaders were joined by a number of their voters in bestowing at least some culpability on Trump and the GOP in Washington.

    Nearly six months later, Morning Consult polling has found that while the bulk of the overall electorate still shares that perspective, Republican voters appear to be following their leaders as they become increasingly likely to disassociate themselves, their party and Trump from the insurrection.

    Republican voters are now more likely to blame President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats for the events that led to the Capitol attack than they are Trump and GOP lawmakers, many of whom supported his false claims of widespread election irregularities. That stance puts them at odds with the broader electorate, whose views on the matter have gone virtually unchanged.

    Half Of Republican Respondents Said Former President Should Play Major Role In Partys Future

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    Former president Donald Trumps popularity rating among Republicans has begun to bounce back since he left office, with half of respondents saying they think he should play a major role in the GOPs future.

    According to tracking by Morning Consult, 81 per cent of Republican voters polled between 23 to 25 January hold positive views of Mr Trump, including 54 per cent who do so strongly.

    The number marks an improvement on the 76 per cent low of Republican voters who favoured him in tracking between 10 and 12 of January ahead of his impeachment when those who strongly favoured Mr Trump sat at 49 per cent.

    Fifty percent of Republican voters in a poll by the company between the 22 and 25 of January also think Mr Trump should maintain a significant role in the partys future, an increase of nine percentage points since the insurrection.

    The former presidents popularity dropped following the 6 January when pro-Trump supporters attacked the Capitol as lawmakers gathered to certify Joe Bidens win, vandalising and looting the building.

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    Opinion: Why Donald Trump May Lose Influence In The Republican Party

    Common wisdom holds that former president Donald Trump remains the dominant force within the Republican Party. The truth is that his personal influence and standing are not as powerful as many imagine, and his power is as likely to decline as it is to increase.

    Theres no denying that many Republicans still revere Trump. He remains highly popular with GOP voters, and candidates for office still vie for his endorsement. Two recent Politico/Morning Consult polls show how strong he remains. A mid-May poll found that half of Republicans surveyed would vote for Trump in a hypothetical 2024 presidential primary matchup, and another poll released this week shows that 59 percent want Trump to play a major role in the party going forward. Trump is clearly the single most influential figure in the party today.

    Other signs point to the gradual erosion of Trumps influence. Candidates may seek his support, but those who fail to get it dont drop out of the race. Trumps endorsement of Alabama Rep. Mo Brooks for his states open Senate seat did not dissuade Katie Britt, a former chief of staff to retiring Sen. Richard C. Shelby, from entering the race on Tuesday. Her three-minute announcement video barely mentions Trump and strikes traditional conservative themes of faith, family and hard work.

    Why Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Is So High Among Republicans

    Trumps Popularity Surges Among Republicans In New Poll ...

    As the U.S. experienced mass unrest over police brutality and racial inequality, a huge spike in unemployment, and on the current count more than 116,000 coronavirus deaths, President Donald Trump’s approval rating took an unsurprising turn for the worse.

    But there is one group of voters who have remained squarely in Trump’s corner in spite of the triple crises facing the nation: Republicans.

    Over the past few months, the president has frequently gloated about his high party-approval figures. Tweeting about his approval rating among Republicans on Tuesday night, Trump wrote: “96% Approval Rating in the Republican Party. Thank you!”

    As The Washington Post reported at the end of May, the president’s evidence-free claim to have a 96 percent approval rating among GOP voters is not grounded in actual polling data.

    Nevertheless, his rating among the Republican base has been consistently high over the last three months.

    A new Morning Consult/Politico poll of 653 Republicans found 83 percent approved of Trump’s record, a fall of only 5 percentage points from the pollster’s March survey. The latest poll, conducted between June 12 to 14, has a 2 percentage point margin of error.

    So how has the president’s approval rating among Republicans stayed so high, even amid unrest over race relations, unemployment, and public health?

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    Poll: Without Trump In The Race Desantis Dominates 2024 Gop White House Hopefuls

    Nationally, the Florida governors popularity among Republican voters has skyrocketed.

    For months, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stature has been expanding within the Republican Party. | Brynn Anderson/AP Photo

    07/14/2021 05:05 PM EDT

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    Donald Trump remains the king of the GOP. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is looking like the crown prince.

    For months, DeSantis stature has been expanding within the party, marked by growing buzz among grassroots activists and GOP consultants who admire the pugilistic style of politics he wields against progressives and the media. Hes consistently won GOP straw polls of presidential hopefuls provided Trump doesnt run in 2024 and he even edged out the former president in favorability in one of the informal surveys.

    Now a new nationwide poll of Republican voters points to him as the front-runner in the event Trump does not run in 2024.

    Trump remains the clear leader of the party. If he decided to run again for president in a crowded 2024 primary field, he would get roughly half of the vote, with DeSantis in a distant second place at 19 percent, according to a new survey of GOP voters from veteran Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio. Everyone else including former Vice President Mike Pence would be in single digits.

    Fabrizio has polled for both Trump and DeSantis in the past.

    Biden and DeSantis attended a briefing together in Miami Beach, Fla. after the condo collapse. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

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