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Friday, November 19, 2021
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How Many Republicans Have Left The Party

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Democrats Have Handed Republicans The Keys To Their Party

California Voter And Party Profiles

NOTES: Likely voters are registered voters meeting criteria on interest in politics, attention to issues, voting behavior, and intention to vote. For a full description of these criteria and regional definitions, visit www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf. For race and ethnicity, results are presented for Latinos, non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic Asian Americans, non-Hispanic African Americans, and non-Hispanic other race and multiracial adults.

Sources: Seven PPIC Statewide Surveys from September 2019 to July 2020, including 11,725 adults and 7,243 likely voters. California Secretary of State, Report of Registration, August 2020. US Census Bureau, 20142018 American Community Survey.

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Analysis: Exodus Of Republican Voters Tired Of Trump Could Push Party Further Right

By Jason Lange, Andy Sullivan


6 Min Read

WASHINGTON A surge of Republicans quitting the party to renounce Donald Trump after the deadly Capitol riot could hurt moderates in next years primaries, adding a capstone to Trumps legacy as president: A potentially lasting rightward push on the party.

More than 68,000 Republicans have left the party in recent weeks in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, crucial states for Democrats hopes of keeping control of Congress in the mid-term elections in 2022, state voter data shows.

Thats about three times the roughly 23,000 Democrats who left their party in the same states over the same time period.

Compared to the Republicans who stayed put, those who fled were more concentrated in the left-leaning counties around big cities, which political analysts said suggested moderate Republicans could be leading the defections.


If the exodus is sustained, it will be to the advantage of candidates in the Republican Partys nomination contests who espouse views that play well with its Trump-supporting base but not with a broader electorate.

That could make it harder for Republican candidates to beat Democrats in November, said Morris Fiorina, a political scientist at Stanford University.

If these voters are leaving the party permanently, its really bad news for Republicans, Fiorina said.

U.S. elections are administered by state governments rather than by Washington.

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Over 30000 Republican Voters Change Party Affiliation After Pro

More than 30,00 Republican voters reportedly quit the GOP in the weeks following the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on January 6.

Tens of thousands of voters have become former Republicans this month in states including Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Maryland, Colorado and Florida, according to a Wednesday report from The Hill, citing state statistics. A far smaller number of voters dropped affiliation with the Democratic party during the same time.

In Pennsylvania, almost 10,000 Republicans had parted ways with the GOP by January 25. Of those, 3,476 changed their registration to the Democratic Party, while the rest moved to a third party or remained unaffiliated. The state saw 2,093 Democrats switch to the Republican Party during the same period, while 1,184 become unaffiliated or switched to a third party.

A similar shift away from the GOP was observed in the other states. The report states that two counties in the Miami, Florida area saw 1,000 Republican voters drop the party in the two days following the attack, while only 96 Democrats ditched their party. In three other Florida counties, more than 2,000 Republicans left the party, more than six times the number who left the Democratic party.


Newsweek reached out to the Republican National Committee for comment.

Insurrection As A Turning Point

How many people have left the Republican Party because of ...

Roughly 4,000 of those who left the Republican Party did so after the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol in Washington An additional 69 Republicans left the party briefly, only to return during the same time period; they are not counted among the 6,670.

Since then, Republican leaders at the national level have chosen not to rebuke U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has suggested that the shootings at Sandy Hook and Parkland, Florida, were staged. Last month, only 10 out of 211 House Republicans voted to impeach Trump for incitement of insurrection.

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Wharton, a former New Haven GOP chairman, said we probably wont know how many Connecticut Republicans make a permanent jump until things play out on the national level over the next few months.


We need to see national party first in terms of whos going to be taking charge and leading the effort to either a rebuild the party or continue with the message of the former president, he said. Im certain theres been multiple people in the U.S. Senate who will take note of this, and a couple of people in the U.S. House are developing a plan and an idea about rebuilding the Party.

The current numbers represent a quantum leap in terms of voters fleeing the GOP compared to the same period of time after the 2016 election, when Trump beat Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

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List Of Republicans Who Opposed The Donald Trump 2020 Presidential Campaign

This article is part of a series about

This is a list of Republicans and conservatives who opposed the re-election of incumbent Donald Trump, the 2020 Republican Party nominee for President of the United States. Among them are former Republicans who left the party in 2016 or later due to their opposition to Trump, those who held office as a Republican, Republicans who endorsed a different candidate, and Republican presidential primary election candidates that announced opposition to Trump as the presumptive nominee. Over 70 former senior Republican national security officials and 61 additional senior officials have also signed onto a statement declaring, “We are profoundly concerned about our nation’s security and standing in the world under the leadership of Donald Trump. The President has demonstrated that he is dangerously unfit to serve another term.”

A group of former senior U.S. government officials and conservativesincluding from the Reagan, Bush 41, Bush 43, and Trump administrations have formed The Republican Political Alliance for Integrity and Reform to, “focus on a return to principles-based governing in the post-Trump era.”


A third group of Republicans, Republican Voters Against Trump was launched in May 2020 has collected over 500 testimonials opposing Donald Trump.

Gallup: Democrats Now Outnumber Republicans By 9 Percentage Points Thanks To Independents

“I think what we have to do as a party is battle the damage to the Democratic brand,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Jamie Harrison said on The Daily Beast‘s latest New Abnormal podcast. Gallup reported Wednesday that, at least relatively speaking, the Democratic brand is doing pretty good.

In the first quarter of 2021, 49 percent of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or independents with Democratic leanings, versus 40 percent for Republicans and GOP leaders, Gallup said. “The 9-percentage-point Democratic advantage is the largest Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012. In recent years, Democratic advantages have typically been between 4 and 6 percentage points.”

New Gallup polling finds that in the first quarter of 2021, an average of 49% of Americans identify with/lean toward the Democratic Party, versus 40 percent for Republicans.

That’s the largest gap since 2012:

Greg Sargent

Party identification, polled on every Gallup survey, is “something that we think is important to track to give a sense to the relevant strength of the two parties at any one point in time and how party preferences are responding to events,”Gallup senior editor Jeff Jones told USA Today.

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Republican Party Of Florida Chairman Downplays Defections

ORLANDO, Fla. More than 36,000 Florida voters previously registered as Republicans have left the GOP since the November election, a News 6 review of state voter records has revealed.

Although three times as many Republicans changed their party affiliation than Democrats post-election, the 57,000-plus Floridians who recently switched political parties are a small fraction of the states 14.5 million registered voters.

Several former Republicans cited the January 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol as a factor in their decision to abandon the party, while others expressed frustration that some GOP leaders did not support former President Donald Trump as much as they would have preferred.

gives people a feeling theyve somehow protested, said News 6 political analyst Jim Clark, a University of Central Florida history professor. Its not going to make any difference at all in an election.


State GOP leaders downplayed the recent defections, believing that most former Republican voters will eventually return.

Its not that big of a deal, said Joe Gruters, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida. I think these people will end up voting for the Republican candidate at the end of the day because, when they registered as a Republican, they believed in the core principles of personal responsibility and individual freedom.

But this year, Orange County saw a higher-than-usual volume of post-election party changes.

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She hasn’t spoken with her parents, who are Biden supporters, since the election. They see her as a QAnon conspiracy theorist, she said, but she thinks of herself as a skeptic who does her own research. Now, she fears a civil war or, at the least, a generation-long rebuilding of conservative politics.

“A party’s got to implode,” she said. “I think that’s what’s happening to the Republican Party, a little bit.”


Others are taking a pragmatic approach: Where will they be able to influence politics the most as Colorado stays reliably Democratic?

“I’ve gotta tell you, the vast majority of my friends are laughing at me, that I switched over to Democrat. They think I’m crazy,” said Martin Lee Hussman, 45.

A well-connected resident of Alamosa in the southern part of the state, he was previously a registered Libertarian but voted for Trump last November. As he watched the fallout of the riots, he decided that Democrats would hold power for the foreseeable future.

“Honestly, I think the Republican Party is dead. I don’t think there’s going to be a Republican Party in the next couple years,” said Hussman, a plumber.

Hussman figured that being registered as a Democrat would help him moderate the party’s candidates by supporting centrist candidates. But Hussman didn’t feel very different after changing his party registration.

“Aw, hell,” Hussman said. “It’s easy to switch back to something else if I don’t like the way this one’s going.”

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    Arizonans Are Switching Political Parties New Numbers Show

    PHOENIX -;This may not be an election year, but some voters are switching political parties. In Arizona, Republicans have the largest number of registered voters, but more voters are switching or registering as Independents.

    Politics in Arizona is a constant national focus with the state Senate election audit, politicians making headlines and President Joe Biden winning the traditionally red state in 2020.

    New poll shows election audit unpopular with Arizona voters

    Examining voter registration from the Secretary of State’s Office shows some interesting trends. In the years between the 2016 and 2020 general elections, Democrats saw the biggest growth in registered voters, followed closely by Republicans. Independents also saw growth due in part to the Green Party losing recognition in Arizona.

    In the six months following the general election, Democrats and Republicans both lost registered voters while Independents grew by tens of thousands.

    Republicans still have a slight edge.

    ;Paul Bentz is senior vice president of Research and Strategy with HighGround, a political consulting firm. He says the good news is more people are registering to vote, but there is less party loyalty. Bentz believes the number of Republicans leaving the party may be connected to the Jan. 6 insurrection when rioters stormed the nation’s Capitol.

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    Change in parties from November to April.

    Louisiana Voters Have Left The Republican Party Since Us Capitol Insurrection

    BATON ROUGE, La. Party registration data from the secretary of states office reveals that roughly 7,800 Louisiana voters have left the Republican Party since the attack on the Capitol on January 6.

    Dips in registrants for the party have been seen around the country. A report from The New York Times found more than 100,000 Republicans left the party in a number of states in the weeks after the U.S. Capitol riots, and Louisianas voter registration numbers mirror that trend.

    Tanner Magee, the second-ranking Republican in the Louisiana House as its speaker pro tempore, cited the challenges national politics creates for public officials at home.

    ;Im not sure theres anything that I can do on a state level other than try to be the best legislator I can and do the best for the state of Louisiana, and hopefully, if you have some people out there that are more state-focused in their thoughts, that might mean something to them, said Magee.

    The Republican Party lost 5,503 registrants in January, 1,709 in February and 598 in March. The three months of losses came after more than 12 months of steady increases in Republican registrations.

    Democrats lost over 8,000 voter registrations in Louisiana between January and April. But unlike the Republican Party, Democrats saw losses in most months in 2020 and 2021.

    Many of the rioters have said they swarmed the Capitol to try to prevent Congress from certifying an election that former President Donald Trump had disputed.

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    Polling Data Shows Republican Party Affiliation Is Down As Independents Leaning Toward The Democratic Party Surge

    Democrats have a nine-percentage-point affiliation advantage over Republicans at the moment.

    • Resize icon

    The GOP is losing its grip, according to the latest Gallup poll.;

    The number of Americans identifying as Republicans or as independents who lean toward the GOP dropped to 40% in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the number of Democrats or independents leaning toward the Democratic party hitting 49%. And that nine-percentage-point lead is the greatest Democratic advantage that Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012, when former President Barack Obama was re-elected.;

    Gallup routinely measures U.S. adults party identification and the political leanings of independents. The latest poll surveyed a random sample of 3,960 U.S. adults by phone between January and March of 2021. And while Democratic Party affiliation actually dropped by one point from the fourth quarter of 2020, to 30% where it has hovered for most of the past eight years the number of Americans identifying as independent rose to 44% from 38% last quarter. And this growing number of independents came at the expense of the Republican party, as 19% of independents said they lean Democrat, compared with 15% leaning Republican. Most of the remaining 11% of independents didnt swing either way.;

    And several events have happened during those three months that could position the Democratic Party more favorably in voters eyes, the Gallup report noted.;

    Nearly 140000 Republicans Had Quit The Party In 25 States According To Nyt Data

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      In the days after the January 6 attack on the Capitol, the phone lines and websites of local election officials across the country were jumping: Tens of thousands of Republicans were calling or logging on to switch their party affiliations.

      In California, more than 33,000 registered Republicans left the party during the three weeks after the Washington riot. In Pennsylvania, more than 12,000 voters left the GOP in the past month, and more than 10,000 Republicans changed their registration in Arizona.

      An analysis of January voting records by The New York Times found that nearly 140,000 Republicans had quit the party in 25 states that had readily available data . Voting experts said the data indicated a stronger-than-usual flight from a political party after a presidential election, as well as the potential start of a damaging period for GOP registrations as voters recoil from the Capitol violence and its fallout.

      Among those who recently left the party are Juan Nunez, 56, an Army veteran in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania. He said he had long felt that the difference between the United States and many other countries was that campaign-season fighting ended on Election Day when all sides would peacefully accept the result. The Jan. 6 riot changed that, he said.

      What happened in DC;that day, it broke my heart, said Nunez, a lifelong Republican who is preparing to register as an independent. It shook me to the core.

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      The Message Hyperpolarization Doesnt Work

      Theres a message in the voter numbers. Republicans still lead the state, with nearly 35% of the vote. But independents arent far behind with more than 32% and growing.

      What it shows is the hyperpolarization seen in politics between the two major parties has been pushing folks to the independent column, pollster Mike Noble, of OH Predictive Insights, told me.;The only issue is, more are leaving the Republican Party than the Democratic Party and thats because they have a brand issue.

      Noble chalks the declining Republican ranks up to their Looney Tunes audit.

      We know a majority of independent or moderate voters dont believe the election was stolen, he said. Yet there is this audit going on that is not very transparent or professionally run.;The GOP as a brand, I believe it is impacting them and the registration numbers reflect that.

      I hear from those voters all the time, principled Republicans who wonder when the party of conservative values became the cult of Trump.

      Count Gary, of Scottsdale, among the 23,559 Republicans who have fled the party during the first three months of the;year. Hes been a Republican since 1972.;In February, he re-registered as an independent. He emailed me in a few weeks ago, right after Fann hired a member of the Stop the Steal movement;to conduct her independent audit of Maricopa Countys election.

      Reach Roberts at . Follow her on Twitter at .

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