If Joe Biden Loses It Probably Wont Be Because Of An Increase In Gop Voter Registration
Election night is fast approaching, and even if it’s quite possible we won’t know who the winner is on Nov. 3, recent state and national polling suggest that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is the clear favorite.
In a search for data points that might suggest a different outcome, some analysts have turned to looking at voter registration numbers. Particular attention has been given to registration numbers in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — three hugely important swing states that register voters by party, and recently released numbers show that more people have been registering as Republicans than as Democrats.
In Florida, Republicans have shrunk their voter registration deficit from 2.5 points in 2016 to less than a point now . In North Carolina, the gap has shrunk by 3.8 percentage points. And in Pennsylvania, it has shrunk from 10.4 points to 7.8 points.
But that’s really only part of the story. President Trump may overcome his polling deficit to win reelection, but the voter registration numbers in those states are not necessarily a sign of some significant underlying shift.
A lot of the net registration change in all three of those states are people changing their voter registration to reflect their long-standing partisan inclinations — shifts that Trump may have facilitated and/or solidified in White, working-class areas, but aren’t completely new.
Aaron Blake contributed to this report.
Do You Have To Vote For The Party You’re Registered With
Your state may give you the opportunity to declare your political party affiliation on your voter registration card.
You do not have to vote for the party you’re registered with, in a federal, state, or local general election.
But in a presidential primary or caucus, depending on your state’s rules, you may have to vote for the political party you’ve registered with.
Republicans Expand Voter Registration Advantage In West Virginia
Republicans continue to make gains in voter registration in West Virginia, and that means Democrats are losing more ground.
The latest numbers from the Secretary of State’s Office show there are 428,542 Republicans and 396,079 Democrats. 249,951 have no party affiliation/independent. 36,844 are listed as “other,” while 8,818 are registered with the Libertarian Party and 2,157 are members of the Mountain Party.
Republicans now make up 38.18 percent of all registered voters, compared with 35.29 percent who are Democrats. 22.27 percent are independents.
Thirty-one of the state’s 55 counties have Republican voter registration majorities. That is up from 21 just one year ago. In fact, in June of 2020, there were nearly 47,000 more Democratic registrations than Republican, and Democrats held a 38 percent to 35 percent advantage.
Politically, the state has been trending Republican for the last 20 years. Donald Trump’s two overwhelming victories in the state and Shelley Moore Capito’s popularity—she got 2,000 more votes than Trump in 2020—have driven Republican enthusiasm and bolstered GOP registration.
But Republicans were winning races locally and statewide even when Democrats maintained an advantage in voter registration. One of the reasons is the old registration numbers were somewhat misleading.
Because Democrats outnumbered Republicans, the maintenance of the voter rolls had a greater numeric impact on them.
Democrats Have 12 Million More Registered Voters Than Republicans
UVA Center for Politics— Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball — posted the latest numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans and Independents in the 31 states that require party registration to vote. Democrats and their friends in the media have been great at getting people to register — as Democrats .
Democrats the GOP by 12 million registered voters in states that are key in the mid-terms.
It’s not good news for the GOP in the mid-terms. Important states now have more registered Democrats than Republicans, and in many, it’s by a significant amount.
Democrats now account for 40% of the registered voters in those states, Republicans are only 29% and Independents account for 28 percent. It’s shocking when one considers they are successfully running on high taxes and spending, a loss of freedoms, Stormy Daniels, and open borders.
There aren’t many states that are solid red and many are close to becoming blue.
It gives Democrats a decided advantage.
VENEZEULA, HERE WE COME
It’s concerning when you consider states like North Carolina and Colorado now have more Democrats than Republicans and others like Arizona are close. We can thank the invasion of leftists coming in from foreign nations for some of this. Certainly, it is what changed California. Foreigners loyal to their native lands are deciding our policies.
Cook Partisan Voting Index
Another metric measuring party preference is the Cook Partisan Voting Index . Cook PVIs are calculated by comparing a state’s average Democratic Party or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation’s average share of the same. PVIs for the states over time can be used to show the trends of U.S. states towards, or away from, one party or the other.
And There Are 133 Million Registered Voters In The Usa
False claims there were “more votes than voters” were prolific among the maelstrom of that appeared after the November 3 2020 election, such as one early claim that had more votes than voters.
According to the Brookings Institute, a record 133 million votes were in the 2016 election — if that figure was the source, similar turnout in 2020 would not suggest there were “more votes than registered voters.” Moreover, the August 2020 context ought to suggest the higher-than-133-million voter turnout was anticipated:
What the data from 2020 tells us is that there is every reason to expect a record turnout in 2020. We got a preview in 2018 when the turnout in the midterm elections was the highest since 1914, even though Republicans were less mobilized than Democrats, a difference unlikely to be repeated this year. “I expect voter turnout to be exceptional, perhaps the highest in over a century, since 1908,” said Michael McDonald, who directs the U.S. Elections Project. “I sometimes refer to it as the ‘storm of the century’,” he added. Turnout in 1908 was 65.7%, compared to 54.2% in 2000 and 60.1% in 2016. If McDonald is correct and turnout reaches the 1908 level, votes cast in 2020 could total more than 145 million, up from 133 million in 2016.
We spotted the same figure in a May 2013 Pew Research about a Census Bureau report on the 2012 election:
On November 4 2020, CNBC reported that NBC News the number of individual votes cast in 2020:
Video: Guide For The New Voter
If you’re getting ready to vote for the first time, this short video can help. It goes over the basic requirements for voting in the U.S., and explains why it’s important to know your state’s specific rules for voting.
- Show the Video Transcript
Are you ready to vote for the first time? If you’re a U.S. citizen, meet your state’s requirements, and will be 18 by Election Day, you can vote.
But first, you need to register before your state’s deadline. Check with your local election office. You can register there or you may be able to register online, at the Department of Motor Vehicles, or using the National Mail Voter Registration Form.
Your election office may send you a voter registration card listing your polling place. On Election Day, that’s where you’ll go. When you get there, you may need to show an ID to vote. Then, fill out your ballot. If you don’t know how, ask a poll worker. If you know you won’t be able to get there on Election Day, you may qualify to vote by mail.
Remember, voting rules are different in every state. Learn more about voting at USA.gov/voting
Tens Of Thousands Of Voters Drop Republican Affiliation After Capitol Riot
More than 30,000 voters who had been registered members of the Republican Party have changed their voter registration in the weeks after a mob of pro-Trump supporters attacked the Capitol — an issue that led the House to impeach the former president for inciting the violence.
The massive wave of defections is a virtually unprecedented exodus that could spell trouble for a party that is trying to find its way after losing the presidential race and the Senate majority.
It could also represent the tip of a much larger iceberg: The 30,000 who have left the Republican Party reside in just a few states that report voter registration data, and information about voters switching between parties, on a weekly basis.
Voters switching parties is not unheard of, but the data show that in the first weeks of the year, far more Republicans have changed their voter registrations than Democrats. Many voters are changing their affiliation in key swing states that were at the heart of the battle for the White House and control of Congress.
Nearly 10,000 Pennsylvania voters dropped out of the Republican Party in the first 25 days of the year, according to the secretary of state’s office. About a third of them, 3,476, have registered as Democrats; the remaining two-thirds opted to register with another party or without any party affiliation.
In all of those areas, the number of Democrats who left their party is a fraction of the number of Republican defectors.
Political Difference Highest Among Younger Veterans
PRINCETON, NJ — Veterans are more likely to be Republican than are those of comparable ages who are not veterans. This Republican skew is at least minimally evident across all age groups, ranging from a 15-point difference in the percentage Republican between veterans and nonveterans in the 25-29 age group, to a 2-point difference in the 85+ group.
These results are based on an analysis of more than 138,000 interviews conducted as part of the Gallup Poll Daily tracking program since January of this year. Respondents were classified as veterans/active military based on an affirmative response to this question: “In the past or at the present time, are you or have you been a member of the United States military?” Fourteen percent of Americans indicate that they have served in the military in the past or are currently on active duty.
Ninety-one percent of those who have served in the military at some point in their lives are men. Looked at differently, over one-quarter — 27% — of men aged 18 and older say they are veterans or currently serving in the military, compared to just 2% of adult women.
These trends correspond directly to the status of the draft and wartime environment in which men came of age.
Different Patterns at Work?
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones .
Political Party Strength In Us States
Political party strength in U.S. states is the level of representation of the various political parties in the United States in each statewide elective office providing legislators to the state and to the U.S. Congress and electing the executives at the state ” rel=”nofollow”>U.S. state governor) and national level.
Record 22 Million Californians Registered To Vote Heading Into General Election
SACRAMENTO, CA– Secretary of State Alex Padilla released the final statewide Report of Registration ahead of the November 3, 2020, General Election. As of October 19, 2020, a record 22,047,448 Californians were registered to vote. This represents an increase of 2,635,677 registered voters since the last Report of Registration at a similar point in a presidential election cycle .
87.87% of eligible Californians are registered to vote. This is the highest percentage of eligible citizens registered to vote heading into a General Election in the past 80 years.
“For the first time, California now has more than 22 million registered voters,” said Secretary of State Alex Padilla. “There are more voters registered in California than the number of people in the state of Florida! Record registration and a historic election points towards a big voter turnout, which could also mean longer lines and wait times on Election Day. If you haven’t voted yet, I highly recommend that you consider voting early.”
“If you missed the voter registration deadline, you still have to opportunity to vote using ‘Same Day’ Registration. 2020 marks the first year that voters can complete the ‘Same Day’ voter registration process and cast their ballot at any in-person voting location in the county or the county elections office,” Padilla added.
Trends in Statewide Voter Registration 1996 – 2020
Registration Comparison October 19, 2020 Report vs. October 24, 2016 Report
Chart 1 And Table 2: Nationwide Party Registration Trends Since 2000
|Since 2000, the nationwide proportion of registered Democratic and Republican voters in party registration states have both gone down, while the percentage of registered independents has steadily grown. The latter has nearly reached the nationwide percentage of registered Republicans, which has long been second nationally to the Democrats. Altogether, the combined number of registered Democrats and Republicans, which was 77% in October 2000, is now down to 69%, while the proportion of registered independents over the same period has increased from 22% to 28%.|
Note: Based on active registered voters in states where the number of active and inactive registrants is listed. In the election-eve 2000, 2008, and 2016 entries, “Independents” include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who do not fit into a particular category. Percentages do not add to 100 since the small percentage of registered third party voters is not included.
The Voters In The Middle
Tara Erock registered as an Independent back in 2016. Before then, the Town of Poughkeepsie resident had been a Democrat.
Erock made the change because she felt the Democratic National Committee made a mistake by not choosing Bernie Sanders as its candidate.
“It was one of those things that was glaringly obvious, his popularity and that people wanted a change,” she said. Erock voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and for Biden this year.
In 2016 there were 10,415 registered Independents in Dutchess County and about 49,00 who did not designate a party affiliation. In 2020, that number dropped to 10,263 Independents and roughly 52,500 were non-aligned.
Shaffer believes independents tend to go with the people they know, giving Republicans the edge on name recognition.
In races that are too close to call, these voters could make the difference between winning and losing. As absentee votes get counted, there are 8,000 that make up that wild card.
Erock, who didn’t vote for Molinaro last year, said her focus is on working families and youth. She doesn’t believe her town or the county has a lot to offer young people in terms of activities compared to other areas.
“He’s everywhere, I give him credit for that, he shows up and shows out, but as far policies and changing things, I haven’t seen it,” she said.
Nationwide Voter Registration Data By Party
In the 32 jurisdictions that have registration by party, here are the number of registered voters in each party and the number of independents:
Democratic: 47,106,084Reform: 9,004oth parties 1,814,973
This data uses the most available figures for each jurisdiction. All are as of September or October 2020, except that New York has no data newer than February 2020, and Massachusetts is August 2020.
In February 2020 the numbers were:
Democratic: 45,715,952Reform: 6,665oth parties 1,712,747
The February 2020 tally is the only one in U.S. history in which the number of voters registered independent and miscellaneous was greater than the number in either major party. But between February and now, Republicans regained their second-place position.
The print issue of Ballot Access News for November 1, 2020, has this information by state. All the numbers in that edition are correct for the state-by-state figures and for the national totals for the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian Parties, and the number of independents. Unfortunately the totals for the other parties, as printed, are not, and the national percentages as printed are not. I forgot to update some of the national totals when I was working with the template of the February 2020 data. A correction will be made in the December 1 issue.
The Role Of Demographics
There are reasons why Dutchess long ago became a Republican stronghold.
As with so many facets of the county’s history, IBM played a role. Many credit employees of IBM, which for decades was the county’s largest employer, for bolstering the Republican rolls in the 1980s. However, over the last two decades, as IBM relinquished its property locally and decreased its workforce, that changed.
A collection of varied businesses filled IBM’s place in the county’s economy, and consequently Dutchess demographics became more diverse. The percentage of Black and Hispanic residents has also increased over the last decade.
Much of the county remains rural, which has traditionally leaned Republican.
The belief is that Democrats’ margin in the county will only continue to grow as the emergence of remote workplaces during the COVID-19 pandemic has led more downstate residents to move into the Hudson Valley.
However, Richard Born, a political science professor at Vassar College, noted some Democrats moving into the area may be less liberal than the national trend showing Democrats growing increasingly progressive.
Born speculates one of the reasons why Republicans continue to find success locally is that Democrats are more willing to vote for the moderate Republicans and cross party lines, helping area incumbents win reelection.
“If you’re doing a good job it crosses over from just a one-party decision to a many party decision,” McCormack said.
Map 2 And Table 4: Party Registration And The 2016 Presidential Vote
|Of the 31 party registration states, 24 were carried in the 2016 presidential election by the party with the most registered voters in it. Donald Trump swept 11 of the 12 states with a Republican registration advantage, while Hillary Clinton won 13 of the 19 states which had more registered Democrats than Republicans. Four of the Democratic registration states that Trump took were in the South, led by Florida and North Carolina. He also overcame Democratic registration advantages in West Virginia and Pennsylvania to win both. The only state with more registered Republicans than Democrats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 was New Hampshire, where the outcome was very close.|
Notes: An asterisk indicates states where there were more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans in October 2016. “Independents” include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who do not fit into any particular category.
America Hits New Landmark: 200 Million Registered Voters
The 2016 campaign may have reached dispiriting new lows, but voter registration in America has soared to new heights as 200 million people are now registered to vote for the first time in U.S. history.
The milestone is a sign of the aggressive voter registration efforts ahead of Nov. 8 and a symptom of the fast-growing and demographically shifting electorate that is expected to redound to the benefit of the Democratic Party in the coming years.
There is no current national database of voter registration because each state independently runs its own election. But TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, told POLITICO that the country passed the 200 million threshold in recent days as North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and New York reported new voter numbers.
Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, said national registration now stands at 200,081,377 voters.
The figure means more than 50 million new people have registered to vote in the past eight years. Only 146.3 million were registered as recently as 2008, when then-Sen. Barack Obama first won the White House — a remarkable 33 percent surge in the electorate during a single presidency.
The last time a Clinton was on the presidential ballot 20 years ago, the electorate was 127.6 million people.
Overall, TargetSmart found that 42.6 percent of the new voters registered this year lean Democratic, and only 29 percent lean Republican .
Poring Over Party Registration
This is not the best of times for the Democratic Party. No White House; no Senate; no House of Representatives; and a clear minority of governorships and state legislatures in their possession. Yet the Democrats approach this fall’s midterm elections with an advantage in one key aspect of the political process — their strength in states where voters register by party.
Altogether, there are 31 states with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. Among the party registration states are some of the nation’s most populous: California, New York, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts.
The basic facts: In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million.
Still, Republican Donald Trump found a route to victory in 2016 that went through the party registration states. He scored a near sweep of those where there were more Republicans than Democrats, winning 11 of the 12, while also taking six of the 19 states where there were more Democrats than Republicans — a group that included the pivotal battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Thousands Of Voters Registered For The Georgia Senate Races Who Benefits
With early voting underway in the Georgia Senate runoffs, almost 70,000 voters have newly registered in the state, according to voter data analyzed by NBC News.
Experts and those in both parties generally agree that slight shifts in turnout will determine who wins these two races on Jan. 5, given how close the results were for the presidential and Senate contests in the general election.
The NBC analysis found that 67,135 newly registered voters with no general election vote history were added to the list of potential voters for the upcoming runoffs. These voters were registered between Nov. 4 and the state registration deadline on Dec. 7.
There are 7,729,838 total registered voters in Georgia.
The runoff stakes are high: If Democrats win both contests they will take control of the Senate. One race features GOP Sen. David Perdue against Democrat Jon Ossoff and the other pits Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler against Democratic challenger Raphael Warnock.
The big question, of course, is whether the Democrats or Republicans gain an edge with this group of new voters. The new registration numbers point to a slight advantage for the Democrats and, while this is encouraging for the party, the advantage is small, and slight shifts in turnout among those who participated in the general election could make such minor gains inconsequential.
Lots Of Consistency Elsewhere
In the rest of the country, there was much more consistency between party registration totals and the 2016 election outcome, with only three non-Southern states voting “against the grain.” On election eve in Pennsylvania, there were 915,081 more registered Democrats than Republicans; Trump carried the state by 44,292 votes. In West Virginia, there were 175,867 more registered Democrats; Trump won by 300,577 votes. And in New Hampshire, there were 24,232 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the fall of 2016, but Hillary Clinton took the state by 2,736 votes. That’s it. The other 22 party registration states outside the South were carried in the presidential balloting by the party with more registered voters than the other.
And in many of these “in sync” states, the registration advantage in recent years has grown more Republican or Democratic as the case may be, augmented by a healthy increase in independents.
The registration trend line in California is a microcosm of sorts of party registration in the nation as whole. Democrats are running ahead and the ranks of the independents are growing. Yet registered voters in both parties appear to be widely engaged. That was the case in 2016, and likely will be again in 2018, with Trump flogging issues to rouse his base. In short, this is a highly partisan era when party registration totals, and the trends that go with them, are well worth watching.