Democrats Have The Wind At Their Backs But Can They Capitalize
Despite low national approval ratings, a steady stream of administration controversies and the ongoing investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election led by Justice Department special counsel Robert Mueller, nothing has shaken President Trump’s enduring popularity among Republicans, where his approval ratings hover around 90 percent.
Veteran House and Senate campaign strategist Andrea Bozek says in 2018 Republicans are less concerned with the old, familiar metrics that used to drive primary campaigns, like conservative vote ratings, or whether candidates had signed an anti-tax pledge. “I think now it’s how much support have you given the president in the past, and what can you do to support his agenda going forward?” she said. The conservative groups that used to drive those wedges in primary campaign debates, like the anti-tax Club for Growth, agree that the politics of Trump’s personality are a more decisive factor in this political environment. The group’s president, David McIntosh, says Republicans primary voters see a president under siege, by Democrats and the media, and they are motivated above all else to vote for the candidate who will fight on his behalf.
Senate candidates Luke Messer, Todd Rokita and Mike Braun, from left, participate in a Indiana Republican Senate Primary Debate, Monday, April 30, 2018, in Indianapolis. Darron Cummings/APhide caption
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Correction March 18, 2019
Can Donald Trump Run Again In 2024
The short answer is yes.
Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.
UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.
External Validity Of The Sample
To investigate the external validity of the findings, we can compare the sample to the larger set of all primary elections. The left panel of Figure A.1 plots the distribution of the Democratic district presidential normal vote for all districts and for those entering the analysis. We see that the distributions overlap closely; districts that enter the sample do not appear to differ ideologically from the overall population of primary races.
Notes
FIGURE A.1. Characteristics of the Sample: U.S. House Primary Elections, 19802010
In the middle panel, on the other hand, we see that the primaries entering the sample are much more likely to occur in open-seat races. This makes sense; incumbents have a significant advantage in both primary and general elections . As a result, a large number of incumbent-held seats have uncontested or uncompetitive primary elections in both parties and thus do not enter the sample. Finally, the right panel shows that observations in the sample are roughly equally likely to be either Democratic or Republican primaries, and occur consistently over time, with the early 1990s being the most common era represented in the sample.Footnote 40
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Interest Groups Prefer Moderates
Another possible mechanismseparate from those that depend on particular characteristics of the two types of candidatesis that strategic interest groups and other political actors might support the campaigns of more moderate candidates more than those of extremists in the general election. We know, for example, that interest groups are more moderate than voters on average . In the first column of Table 4, I re-estimate the RDD with the share of nonindividual contributions the nominee receives from PACs in the general election as the outcome variable. The nomination of the extremist appears to cause a large decreaseapproximately a 30 percentage-point decreasein the share of contributions coming from PACs.Footnote 37 The results suggest that PACs may play a role in encouraging the penalty to extremists. In addition, we might suspect that the PAC effect is also a proxy for the behavior of other political elites in the district who may likewise withdraw support from extremist nominees.
TABLE 4. Testing Mechanisms, U.S. House 19802010
Notes: The first column shows that extremist nominees receive fewer contributions from PACs in the general election. In the second column, we see that the penalty to extremist candidates is larger in districts with greater media congruence and thus more information about the nominee. Robust standard errors in parentheses. Optimal bandwidth from Imbens-Kalyanaraman implemented using rdob in Stata, estimated using local linear OLS.
Trump Pick Wins Us House Special Republican Primary Election In Ohio
Vehicles are parked outside the U.S. Capitol building the morning the Senate returned to session in Washington, DC, U.S., July 31, 2021. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo
WASHINGTON, Aug 3 – Mike Carey, a coal lobbyist endorsed by former President Donald Trump, won a crowded primary contest on Tuesday for the Republican nomination to a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives from Ohio’s 15th district.
With 96.5% of precincts reporting, Carey was ahead of his closest contender, state representative Jeff LaRe, by 37% to 13.3%, results from the Ohio secretary of state’s office showed.
The outcome in Ohio’s traditionally Republican 15th District south of Columbus was being closely watched as a measure of Trump’s clout in the Republican Party, coming just a week after a Trump-backed candidate for the U.S. Congress suffered a surprise loss to a fellow Republican in north Texas.
“Tonight, Republicans across Ohio’s 15th Congressional District sent a clear message to the nation that President Donald J. Trump is, without a doubt, the leader of our party,” Carey declared in a statement after his victory.
Trump also issued a statement thanking Ohio voters and praising the “Great Republican win for Mike Carey. Big numbers!”
“We have looked across the promised land, but … we will not cross the river,” Turner told supporters at an election night watch party outside Cleveland.
Democrats currently have a narrow 220-212 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
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Ties To George Norcross
The results in at least two races, in the 37th and 26th districts, may also have been influenced by hundreds of thousands of dollars in dark money pumped into them. A report Monday from the Election Law Enforcement Commission showed an independent spending committee with ties to South Jersey Democratic boss George Norcross spent almost $700,000 of a total $722,000 in outside spending for Johnson or against Huttle in the 37th. The greatest dark money spending through May 25 was more than $900,000 spent by five organizations in the 26th District race.
The primary winners and candidates who file to run as independents will face one another in the November general election.
The primary election was the first one statewide to be conducted primarily in person in 18 months, as last years elections were conducted mostly using mail-in ballots. Still, close to 200,000 people had submitted mail-in ballots leading up to Election Day, more than in any previous primary prior to 2020.
New Jersey has a closed primary, so Democrats and Republicans vote for their respective candidates. Unaffiliated voters can cast ballots by declaring a party at the polls. The total turnout is not likely to be known until next week after all valid mail-in ballots are tallied.
Rdd Estimates Across Bandwidths And Specifications
The choice of RDD bandwidth and specification is somewhat arbitrary, so it is important to demonstrate that conclusions are not driven by these choices.
Figures A.3 and A.4 plot the RDD estimate1 from Equation 1across bandwidths for four specifications: the local linear, estimated separately on each side of the discontinuity, and quadratic, cubic, and quartic specifications of the running variable. The plots start from a bandwidth of 3 to ensure a reasonable number of data points enter the estimates. Below 3, the regressions rely on very few observations and, though estimates typically become even more negative, they vary greatly. Since no estimates are presented in the article at bandwidths this small, I omit them from the figures.
FIGURE A.3. RDD Estimate for General-Election Vote Share Across Bandwidths from 3 to 50
FIGURE A.4. RDD Estimate for General-Election Victory Across Bandwidths from 3 to 50
As the figures show, the conclusions drawn in the article do not vary based on the choice of bandwidth or specification. No matter what specification or bandwidth is used, a large negative effect is found on both vote share and victory, as presented in the article.
FIGURE A.5. Local Linear RDD Estimate for General-Election Vote Share Across Bandwidths from 3 to 50
FIGURE A.6. Local Linear RDD Estimate for General-Election Victory Across Bandwidths from 3 to 50
FIGURE A.7. Local Linear RDD Estimate for Nominee Previous Office-Holder Experience Across Bandwidths from 3 to 50
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Generally When Women Leave Congressional Seats They Are Not Succeeded By Other Women
Political Primaries: How Are Candidates Nominated
Article two, section one of the United States Constitution discusses the procedures to be followed when electing the president of the United States, but it does not provide guidance for how to nominate a presidential candidate. Currently, candidates go through a series of state primaries and caucuses where, based on the number of votes they receive from the electorate, they are assigned a certain number of delegates who will vote for them at their party’s convention.
Earlier party conventions were raucous events, and delegates did not necessarily represent the electorate. Mrs. J.J. McCarthy describes her convention experience:
I can picture … the great Democratic convention of 1894 at the old coliseum in Omaha… right now I can hear the Hallelluiahs of the assembled. Oh how I wish I had back the youth and the enthusiasm I felt that night, I jumped on a chair and ask that by a rising vote the nomination be made unanimous, how the people yelled, how the packed gallories applauded, it cheers an old man now to think about it.
Politics played a big part in the life of this town years ago. Campaigns were hot, and there was always a big celebration afterwards. … Votes used to be bought — that is before the secret ballot was adopted. Some sold ’em pretty cheap. I remember one old fellow who sold out to one party for a dollar — then sold out to the other for the same price.
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Change Seen As Most Important
As was the case in Iowa and New Hampshire, change has become a major theme of the national primary campaign. Overall, more than a third of voters rate the ability to bring about needed change as the most important candidate quality, followed by saying what the candidate believes , having the best experience , and caring about average people .
Roughly four-in-ten Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters view the ability to effect change as the most important candidate quality more than double the percentage naming any other trait. Among Democratic voters, liberals are the most likely to view change as most important.
Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, change is not valued as highly as a candidate quality. For about a third , a candidate saying what they believe is most important, while 27% see the ability to bring needed change as most important.
There is greater agreement among Democrats and Republicans about the kind of change they would most like to see in Washington. A plurality of both Democratic voters and Republican voters say that getting the two major parties to work together is most important. Smaller numbers in each party view reducing the influence of money and special interests, or changing foreign and domestic policies as most important.
Some Californians Are Seeking Ways To Curb Recalls After Tuesdays Election
Detractors of Californias special election, which Gov. Gavin Newsom won on Tuesday, say the recall process is democracy gone off the rails, a distraction from crises that require the governments attention, and a waste of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Californias forests are on fire, with wildfire smoke sending thousands of residents fleeing. Towns are running out of water from severe drought. And some rural hospitals are packed with coronavirus patients.
Many voters who went to the polls on Tuesday said the election was an unwelcome distraction that preoccupied Mr. Newsom and, some critics said, might have prevented him from taking on tough decisions.
This recall is so dumb, said Frankie Santos, a 43-year-old artist who voted in Hollywood on Tuesday. Its so not a good use of resources. She said that if she could have scrawled absolutely no to recalling Mr. Newsom without invalidating her ballot, she would have.
Anthony Rendon, the speaker of the State Assembly, and other legislative leaders have already said discussions were underway to place a constitutional amendment regarding recalls before voters in 2022.
This is a system that was put in place 100 years ago, said Mr. Rendon, referring to the current recall rules. Well be asking if this is whats best for the state.
Statewide, some 13 million ballots were left to be cast or postmarked on Election Day, but the race was expected to have high turnout overall for an off-year election.
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Allegations Of Inciting Violence
Research suggests Trump’s rhetoric caused an increased incidence of hate crimes. During his 2016 campaign, he urged or praised physical attacks against protesters or reporters. Since then, some defendants prosecuted for hate crimes or violent acts cited Trump’s rhetoric in arguing that they were not culpable or should receive a lighter sentence. In May 2020, a nationwide review by ABC News identified at least 54 criminal cases from August 2015 to April 2020 in which Trump was invoked in direct connection with violence or threats of violence by mostly white men against mostly members of minority groups. On January 13, 2021, the House of Representatives impeached Trump for incitement of insurrection for his actions prior to the storming of the U.S. Capitol by a violent mob of his supporters who acted in his name.
Republicans Will Likely Take Control Of The Senate By 2024
The usual midterm House losses by the White House party dont always extend to the Senate because only a third of that chamber is up for election every two years and the landscape sometimes strongly favors the presidential party . But there a still generally an out-party wave that can matter, which is why Republicans may have a better than average chance of winning in at least some of the many battleground states that will hold Senate elections next year . If they win four of the six youll probably be looking at a Republican Senate.
But its the 2024 Senate landscape that looks really promising for the GOP. Democrats will be defending 23 seats and Republicans just 10. Three Democratic seats, and all the Republican seats, are in states Trump carried twice. Four other Democratic seats are in states Trump won once. It should be a banner year for Senate Republicans.
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The 2024 Presidential Election Will Be Close Even If Trump Is The Gop Nominee
One very important thing we should have all taken away from both the 2016 and 2020 presidential contests is that the two major parties are in virtual equipose . The ideological sorting-out of the two parties since the 1960s has in turn led to extreme partisan polarization, a decline in ticket-splitting and and in number of genuine swing voters. Among other things, this has led to an atmosphere where Republicans have paid little or no price for the extremism theyve disproportionately exhibited, or for the bad conduct of their leaders, most notably the 45th president.
Indeed, the polarized climate encourages outlandish and immoral base mobilization efforts of the sort Trump deployed so regularly. Some Republicans partisans shook their heads sadly and voted the straight GOP ticket anyway, And to the extent there were swing voters they tended strongly to believe that both parties were equally guilty of excessive partisanship, and/or that all politicians are worthless scum, so why not vote for the worthless scum under whom the economy hummed?
The bottom line is that anyone who assumes Republicans are in irreversible decline in presidential elections really hasnt been paying attention.
Former President Donald Trump
The biggest question mark for Republicans is if Trump will run for president in 2024. He hasnt exactly frozen the field, since Republicans are already positioning themselves to run, but perhaps hes refrigerated it a bit?
Trump is the 800-pound gorilla, said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor. Trump has got command of the organs of the party and is going to have an enormous amount of resources and name ID and the ability to throw these rallies in the fall of 2022. I think that sets him up very well to being pole position for 2024 if he wants.
Trump, 74, is currently bettors top candidate on PredictIt, an online prediction market, and hes also led in several early polls, including a February Morning Consult/Politico poll. The poll found 54% of Republican voters would back Trump if the 2024 primary were held today. Those kinds of numbers would mean game over in a primary, but they also suggest many Republicans are eager for a new face.
During a recent podcast interview, Trump said he would make his decision on whether he will run in the 2024 presidential election sometime later, and after being asked which Republicans he thought represented the future of the party, he listed off some of the politicians youll see later on this list, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.
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